Most people reading this would consider me to be totally out of my elements. However, whether right or wrong, I do believe that the MGB is actually an advantage for the BJP.
Now, consider that the MGB wins and will form the next government. Who will be the PM? It is quite obvious that the party with the largest number of seats would have the most say. Let us look at who are the players, aside from Congress, which still does not know which side of its bread is buttered, due to ever confused President aided by a never let go Chairperson and a newly influencial GS, supported by a number of court jesters, who need to prove their worth.
SP, BSP, RJD, CPI, CPM, TMC, TRS, TDP, NC, DMK, JDS, RLD are seemingly part of it. Assuming the max seats they can get, the serious players for the next PM are SP, BSP, RJD, TMC & DMK. So the rest do not the skin in the game other than getting enough to make certain that their family line survives.
Except for SP and BSP, the rest have their own states to contest from. The other three parties understand that the only chance they have is that they get better number than the rest. They are also pretty undertanding that without SP+BSP winning, they have little chance in 2019 to form a government. The fact is even SP and BSP understand it. They know who gets more between them will be the King (or Queen). The maximum number they can win is limited. With BJP+Cong winning around 20 by the lowest estimates, leaves them with 60 to share the spoils. At 30, they may be close to TMC and DMK (around 25-28 each at best). So best option is the other wins less. And how does that happen. You undermine the others’ chances.
That in nutshell, is why MGB will be trying to pull each other down by obscure means. None of them wants the other to win more. So while they will show up together, they will play spoiler in the background. TMC and DMK were immune to others to some extent, but SP, BSP and RJD are in a similar space. This explains Mamta’s panic over the recent CBI incident. She knows if she looses ground, she will not have any important role in the new government. Likewise, Akhilesh and Mayawati know that to be in a controlling position in the next setup, they must beat BJP, Cong and their alliance partner.
And that is an advantage that BJP has in this election. It needs to marshall its energy on fewer players, can have focussed campaigns constituency wise. Being a political party, it can also promote some degree of mistrust among the MGB (though I don’t think they have a high level of trust anyways between them). After getting SP & BSP together, and unsettling Mamta in her own backyard, I would be watching TN with some interest. Naidu has already been bested by YSRC and has insufficient chance due to Babu’s misadventure with Cong. Though retracted, people read the script quite clearly that he is not to be trusted. TSR can at best get 16 seats, not enough for it to stake it’s claim for PM. Naidu will try to bring them down and vice versa.
So my take is, MGB is good for BJP. It should support it!
