Mandate – 2019
The way electorate have shown up in voting and the way election strategies are planned and executed it was a historical election and the mandate which was given to PM Modi has baffled entire liberal eco-system.
The way liberals have started to behave it is like redux of Right wingers behavior after historical loss of 2004. Liberalism is being put into test and lot of theories are being discussed as they don’t know what has hit them to get into conclusions.
Anyway apart from Liberals the mandate clearly shows the below ideas in the way forward
Gateway to the Telengana – Anti incumbency creeps in fast:
Apart from Karnataka, BJP did not have any hold on any of the southern states. In many states, BJP fights with NOTA on vote percentages. But in this election BJP got its gate opened in Telengana with a whopping 20% of Votes. It many ways breaks the theory of landslide few months before the general election will result in same for general elections. TRS which had its landslide on Dec 2018, got burned in May 2019. It seems the way TRS behaved after Dec 2018 has really pushed the electorate on the other end.
TRS CM on over confidence delayed the ministry formation, started poaching legislators from congress, started internal family feud by sidelining his nephew Harish Rao.
On top of it the board results of Higher secondary education hit the final nails. Around 30% of people who have appeared for exams have been declared failed and after much protest, re-evaluation was called in and many of those who have failed previously, passed in flying colors. But the initial results devastated students and many of them took extreme step of committing suicide. It might have really angered the electorate which led to sudden rise of BJP.
As like other states BJP has declared it is going to capitalize on it. Future politics of Telengana is going to be interesting.
Black swan Moment of 2018:
The data scientist brought by Congress called the Victory of BJP in 2014 as black swan moment and declared it will not happen again. But little did he realized that the victories of Congress on 3 assembly elections of MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh would have got evaporated within a span of 150 days .2018 assembly results is one of the real Black swan moment for Congress. They got blindsided due to over confidence. Already blood bath started in Rajasthan and M.P with the defeat of Congress. Tough days ahead for Congress in all of these 3 states.
Electorate have shown maturity in rejecting all alliances forged by both Congress and BJP which are made with sole purpose of winning elections.
Mahagatbandhan in U.P and Bihar or the southern alliances by Cong-JDS, BJP-AIADMK don’t have any ideological purity at all. These alliances are forged on the basis of bringing castes together as an arithmetic.Indian electorate has squarely rejected it but gave thumbs up for other alliances like BJP-SS, BJP-JDU. So until you have clear cut case for alliances, facing people in the future elections will be tough.
Perform or Perish:
Lot of dynasties which cringed on to their family bastion have been perished on the fire based on the performance. Even the defeat of Rahul Gandhi shows the exact nature of how the non-performance will be rewarded.
Dynastic politicians have to brace for the roller-coast ride until they perform or else they will be shown the door by voters.
Jai Shree Ram as an revolution:
The army of local RSS workers have completely created an undercurrent for BJP all across India including West bengal and Odisha. First time after 90s people have seen how sloganeering of Jai shree Ram has angered the government in power. Shouting Jai Shree Ram was seen as an revolution against Mamata Banerjee and which shook the ground under her feet. The resonance of Jai Shree Ram across East of India once again proves Shree Ram is a living god and the real Maryada Purushottama for entire Bharat.
Yearn of PM Candidate from South:
The way Kerala electorate recorded votes baffled everybody including Communists and Right wingers. BJP invested in right direction and made correct noises regarding taking up
of Communist regime on ideological issues and they got considerable support across caste lines. But what changed the course of election was the decision of Rahul Gandhi to fight on Wayanad. It completely tilted the game.
Even the assumption of having a PM candidate from their state excites the voters which in turn can change the course of the election as seen in PM Modi’s fight in Varanasi during 2014.So in the future Parties can think of getting the growth in particular region by pushing in respectable candidates to create a wave for the party.
These are the top conclusions I have got with respect to mandate 2019.