The country is eagerly anticipating the upcoming 2024 elections, where the world’s largest democracy will go to the polls. Political parties have already begun their full-fledged campaigns, with the ruling BJP aiming to retain a significant majority. However, the unpredictable nature of politics means it won’t be an easy task, as they will face strong opposition unity.
In the upcoming articles, I will analyse the major political parties leading up to the 2024 election. Let’s start with the Indian National Congress (INC), the oldest political party in India. Established in 1885, the INC has held power at the centre for almost 70 years. However, in recent years, it has experienced a decline in influence, particularly since 2014. Under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, the party suffered defeats in the 2014 and 2019 elections, securing only 44 and 52 seats, respectively.
The INC is a centre-left party that emphasises secular principles and aims to appease minority communities. While it held the position of the main opposition party to the BJP for the past decade, it has lost ground to regional parties. Nevertheless, its recent victory in the 2023 Karnataka polls has boosted morale among its members.
The party has attempted to rejuvenate itself and present Rahul Gandhi as the primary challenger to Narendra Modi, but these efforts have largely been unsuccessful. Their recent Yatra (political journey) ended up causing division rather than unity, involving individuals with extreme views and affiliations, which undermined their goal. Rahul Gandhi’s interviews often had negative consequences, damaging his credibility.
Another noteworthy development within the party was the appointment of Kharge as President, defeating Shashi Tharoor and gaining the support of the Gandhi family. This made Kharge the prominent Dalit leader after Bapu Jagjivanram in the early 70s. On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi was disqualified from contesting the election due to derogatory remarks made against PM Modi and members of the OBC Modi community.
Regarding recent election performances, the INC secured victories in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka in 2023, directly competing against the BJP. It also holds power in Rajasthan, where it will have to compete again in the upcoming election. However, there is currently a visible divide between young leader Pilot and loyalist Ghelot. The party will also participate in the upcoming Madhya Pradesh elections, which it won in 2018 but lost due to defections by Scindia and his supporters to the BJP. The INC still remains in power in Chhattisgarh.
A noteworthy observation is that despite the INC’s victories in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan in 2018, they faced a significant setback in the 2019 elections, with the BJP securing 303 seats. This indicates that voting patterns differ between state and national elections. For instance, in the 2023 Karnataka polls, the INC focused on local issues and emerged victorious.
In 2019 The INC also holds power in Jharkhand through a coalition with the corrupt Jharkhand Mukti Morcha. In Maharashtra, although the Maha Vikas Agadi an alliance of INC, NCP and Sir Sena under Uddhav Thackeray formed a government it was brought down as this alliance was weakened by defections from the Shiv Sena members, resulting in Shinde assuming power with Fadnavis as the deputy CM. The problem with the INC is their lack of a clear future plan beyond defeating the BJP, even if it means adopting an anti-national stance.
This is evident in their demand for proof of surgical strikes in Pakistan and their opposition to the abrogation of Article 370. Additionally, the party attempts to project a soft Hindutva image while simultaneously targeting and insulting Hindus, failing to recognise the prevailing right-wing wave in the country. To achieve success, the INC needs to address national issues rather than engage in controversies and self-deprecation.
The triumph in Karnataka can be likened to the 1978 elections, where Indira Gandhi made a significant political comeback after the emergency period. Similarly, it can be compared to the late 90s when Sonia Gandhi initiated her political career by winning from Bellary. I’m interested to hear your thoughts on this and your predictions for the performance of the Congress party. Please share your views on it as well.
