The exit polls are out and it looks pretty clear that Bihar is going to see Tejaswi Yadav become its youngest-ever chief minister at the age of 31. Looking at the way the NDA media representatives reacted to the poll is a clear indication that they knew the results long back. Unlike the left ecosystem, the people who oppose the politics of the Congress or the RJD will not go out crying that the EVMs were hacked or ‘the death of democracy’ because of this result. Everyone will accept the verdict and will actually work towards getting ahead of it and winning the next election. And that is how a democracy should work.
Coming to this election, I will never agree to the politics of RJD and anyone who has seen the Bihar of 90s would say the same. But that doesn’t stop me from acknowledging the fact that Tejaswi Yadav ran a very smart campaign. If you look at his entire campaign, you will not find Lalu’s face in any of the posters. He didn’t fell into the trap of the NDA, which the Congress has been doing regularly, and pushed his own agenda. Good or bad, that’s for another debate. He raised the issue of distress in the economy and promised jobs to the unemployed youth. Again, whether he can deliver on them or not is another debate altogether. Adding to that, he fought this election with an ‘Anti-Nitish’ campaign and not an ‘Anti-Modi’ campaign. Keeping Rahul Gandhi and congress leadership away for most of the parts also helped him out.
Talking about the NDA, unlike the MGB which showed a clear unity, they were clearly divided. Right from the ticket distribution to LJP walking out to fight against Nitish Kumar, there was clear infighting. Nitish Kumar was carrying a burden of an anti-incumbency of 15 years with him. It almost felt like BJP wanted Nitish Kumar to lose and LJP was given a go-ahead by the BJP as a part of a larger plan. Anyway, 15 years of anti-incumbency was bound to hurt. Their biggest hope was that the opposition messes up and starts playing the match in their territory. Tejaswi smartly avoided that and that’s where he gets a big credit.
From the electoral arithmetic perspective, had the LJP not gone against the JDU, it would have made a huge difference in the number of seats for the NDA. Had the BJP fought with LJP and gone against the JDU, they might have performed better. But all these are ifs and buts and looks great on the hindsight. Does this mean that the Gathbandhan and the Congress are going to repeat this in the LokSabha? No. They are not. One thing that has become clear in the recent elections is that people vote differently for state elections and central elections. Delhi, Rajasthan and Odisha are the prime examples for this. But does that mean Modi cannot be defeated?
Again, no. If there was any chance for the opposition to defeat Modi, it is in 2024. BJP has literally delivered on all the promises (except a few) for which it was voted to power. Whether it is CAA or NRC or Ram Mandir or 370, the core issues of a BJP voter has been fulfilled. If the opposition plays smart, gets done with RG at the centre stage and raises the correct issue of the economy, they might have a chance to overthrow the government. But that requires unity among the opposition and smart tactics. If they keep playing on BJP’s field, they are never going to win. Having said that, the election is still 4 years away and that is an advantage for the current regime. It gives them time to work on the economy. I will reserve this debate for late 2023- early 2024. But yes, its time the government starts focussing on the economy before its too late.
Where does that leave Nitish Kumar?
Nitish Kumar will go down in Bihar’s history as the man who freed Bihar from the Jungle Raj of Lalu Prasad Yadav. Yes, the Nitish of today is not even a shadow of what he was 10 years back but even then the people who have seen the 90s Bihar will stand behind Nitish without giving a second thought. The problem is that the young voters who haven’t seen the Bihar of 90s, the benchmark of performance wasn’t Lalu but Nitish himself. And that’s what is bringing his downfall.
This is the beauty of Indian democracy and the Indian electoral process. Even a stalwart like Nitish Kumar can lose and a dynast and son of the infamous Lalu Yadav can become a Chief Minister. If you don’t find so, you need to get out of the SM/BuzzFeed/Quint-Print kind of publications based on perception politics and try to understand the electoral part of it. Both are very different from each other
