This article was written in response to Markanday Katju’s DailyO article of 22-09-2018 in which the author had predicted two scary scenarios before or during the 2019 Parliamentary Elections. But, like many of my article it could not find a place there, or was not deliberately carried. As, such the response is reproduced here.
According to the figure given in the article the Congress has ruled the country for 49 years, in coalition or on its own. And the Bhartiya Janta Party for 10 years. Neither the Congress years were golden rule and nor was that the case with the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP). Yet people elected the congress for 49 years. Plus the people had tested the BJP rule before and still elected it in 2014 with absolute majority. There normally are no big surprises in the elections that are held in India.
Mr. Markanday Katju has give two possibilities about the outcome of the coming Lok Sabha elections and that of the assembly elections in some states before that. One there will be no instigation of large scale communal riots and or there will be.
In the first case scenario he states that there will be heavy losses to the BJP at the Centre and, may be, in the states too. To me it was the Modi factor than anything else which gave absolute majority to the BJP in the Parliament and many states, with Jumlas or without them. To this factor the opposition of the country has not yet able to produce a counter force. Considering that it will again be the BJP.
If the BJP is able to retain their Brahmin vote bank they are surely to get number sufficient to form the government or at least to head a coalition in the worst case scenario for them. Plus, there is no political party yet in the country which is perceived as more Hindu than the BJP. Ram Mandir might have become a non-issue but who knows when that non-issues is made to resurrect as the main issue by the political maneuvering of the party.
About vikas, development, India has a long way to go when parties will win elections because of vikas or lose by lack of it. The rising unemployment, soaring fuel prices, inflation and distress of farmers and depreciating rupee might affect the vote share of the BJP but that would not be so much that the BJP would be left with less than 125 seats in the Lok Sabha. When Markanday Katju has already lost hopes with the youth, who make major chunk of the voters, how can he expect them to act wisely while using their electoral rights? How would he expect Brahmins to forget their caste considerations overnight?
Hence, it again would be communal and caste factors which would decide the outcome of the elections and in terms of these factors the BJP is at a position of advantage than all the other political parties. About the congress getting somewhere 125 seats would be a big gain and I think they would not be expecting more than that at this juncture.
The regional parties surely will play more active role in the national politics of the country. They would be king makers but expecting that there will be only 6-12 month duration Prime Ministers is expecting too much or too less. There in most probability will be a stable coalition government even if it is headed by a non-congress non BJP leader. Indian parties have learned the art of sharing the power for the sake of gaining the dividends that accrue out of that power.
The best example is that of the Shiv Sena. This party criticizes the BJP more than anybody else but still the party is not breaking the coalition. Saying that the parties in coalitions will break the coalitions after every six months, it means leaving many factors unattended.
The possibility of orchestrating communal riots in Indian politics remains always there. But this time the BJP even in the worst case scenario expects to lead a coalition government. The recently held assembly election have given them an assurance that things are still in their favor and even if some of recent developments could cause some electoral losses but the losses, they think, would not be so much to dislodge them from the power.
Therefore, the BJP has fewer reasons to instigate large scale communal riots this time. Also instigating communal riots when in power and doing that when out of power produce completely different results for a party. This time the BJP is in power, when in power a party instigating communal riots is the same which has to use force against the rioters. Some damages are caused while acting against the rioters.
God forbid if something like that happens, of which Mr. Katju has no doubt, the BJP will suffer losses than gains, it can certainly not sweep the elections like the Congress did after the 1984 Sikh massacre.
