Will lotus bloom in Kerala? – part 2 of analysis of BJP’s chances in polls
In my previous post, I had written about the seats where BJP has a greater chance of winning. In those seats, BJP needs to follow a strategy to make sure that the victory is definite. BJP’s strategy should be two-pronged, Hindutva & Development.
Hindutva or the Hindu card:
The 2 seats in the Kasargod district (Manjeshwar & Kasargod) can be won only by this strategy. Again, the Hindutva strategy should be a two-pronged one: Soft Hindutva and Hard Hindutva:
Soft Hindutva: This is the type, which the NDA should follow to unite the Hindu votes. I say NDA instead of BJP because BJP cannot talk Hindutva in one district and talk only development in the other. The Hndutva card should be openly used by the BDJS (ally of BJP). Vellapally Natesan, the BDJS leader had created a storm when he said “So, if you die, you should die as a Muslim (to get compensation)“. He said this at his Samatwa Munnetta Yatra in December before launching his party, the BDJS. He had said this, after the Kerala government had given compensation to the family of Noushad who died while attempting to rescue two migrant labourers who were trapped in a manhole in Kozhikode. He had also used this because he felt Hindus were ignored by both the fronts (LDF & UDF). The LDF & UDF took it upon themselves to make it as a hate speech. However most hindus understood the context of his statement, they started thinking and hence the issue died down.
Natesan should keep doing this in his election rallies. He should make sure that he talks about how both the fronts have played minority appeasement politics completely ignoring the Hindus. He should talk about this more at rallies in Kasargod district. He should appeal to hindus to unite in order to get their dues. The opposition parties will create issues stating Natesan is doing communal politics, however that will again make Hindus think.
Hard Hindutva: This should be followed by both the BJP & BDJS through word of mouth & social media. The core concept should be how Muslims vote only for Muslim candidates and hence they are well taken care off. They should rake up issues which will clearly show the minority appeasement politics of both the fronts. The issues that they should mainly talk about is, how both fronts call BJP/RSS as communal or terror organisation. People should be made aware of how the two fronts support a terrorist like Abdul Nasser Madani.
Development Card: There are certain areas under this that the BJP should focus more upon. The focus district should be Thiruvananthapuram where the BJP has chance of winning 4 seats (Nemom, Vattiyoorkavu, Thiruvananthapuram, Kazhakoottam). This election, in all the rallies that Narendra Modi speaks, he should speak as the Ex-CM of Gujarat and not as the PM. The main focus of BJP under development should be the following areas Electricity, Water Management, City Development, and Job creation:
Electricity: Narendra Modi should tell the people of Kerala how he provided uninterrupted electricity to farmers in order to develop agriculture in the state. He needs to talk how Gujarat became a power surplus state in 2012, when in 2001 its power sector was in shambles. He should talk about how he used Solar for Power and not for Scams. He should talk how every village in Gujarat was electrified under the BJP rule.
Water Management: Narendra Modi needs to talk about his famous Water Management measures in Gujarat. He should tell people how he made sure that water was supplied to every corner of the state. Now since Kerala is suffering from Water Shortage, this is the best time to impress people. Talk to them as of how water was taken to even Kutch region through pipelines.
City Development: Modi’s needs to compare Thiruvananthapuram with Ahmedabad. He needs to talk how he developed the city and the regions adjoining it. He needs to make people aware how Thiruvananthapuram could have been developed as a world class city if both the fronts (LDF & UDF) wanted to. He needs to talk about the traffic congestion, Sewage treatment, the condition of roads, rain water drainage and waste management. He needs to give examples of how he developed the top cities in Gujarat.
Job Creation: This is one area which Modi can use to target both the fronts equally. He can blame Congress & CPM for doing nothing for the people of Kerala in terms of Job Creation, which has led them to leave Kerala and look for job opportunities in other states and countries. He can blame CPM which failed in Job creation in both Bengal & Kerala and because of which Bengalis toil hard in Kerala to earn their living. He needs to give examples how big companies were set up in Gujarat under him to provide job opportunities. He needs to talk about how he helped Small & Micro Scale Industries.
Finally BJP as a whole and Modi in particular needs to talk about the CPM-Congress alliance in West Bengal. As per the recent Asianet-Cfore survey VS Achuthanandan is the preferred CM candidate from the LDF. BJP & Modi should make sure to ask people if they think that Pinarayi faction will let VS win. They should remind people of what happened in 1996, where VS, who was seen as the next CM from LDF was defeated by the CPM itself to stop him from becoming the CM.
BJP can easily win six seats in the state, but they will have to plan & work accordingly.
A right thinking Keralite who left the left in 2013.