Verdict 2016 – what is there for BJP in coming elections?

Historically BJP has done one thing right and that is to increase their seats exponentially after initially winning in a state or at national level. In 1984, BJP won 2 seats in Lok Sabha and in 1989 they managed to get 85 seats & similarly have done so at state level forming governments in many recently in Haryana, and now in Assam.

A few seats in WB and Kerala mean that down the line, they can hope to form govt there too. Amit Shah has been working on a strategy to break the Congress leaders at state level if it helps BJP to win state elections which also shows Rahul Gandhi’s inability as a leader to maintain discipline in party cadre. As vice president of the party he has not shown any qualities as a leader.

As for Congress, it has never come back to power after losing initially in power or vote share. It started with TN, WB,UP, Bihar and Orissa. So if this fall goes on it will be relegated to 3rd or 4th party in coming years in many states and may be reduced to a regional party soon where states have multiple political parties.

As for the road ahead BJP needs to think about projecting a state leader in state elections where they are in direct fight for power as Assam results show where they asked for votes on development agenda.
Bihar lesson was important for BJP to learn as BJP was not assertive to promote a strong regional leader against the likes of Nitish Kumar & Lalu Prasad Yadav.

Road ahead for Year 2017:

In 2017, there will be more state elections but most important of them will be Punjab,Uttar Pradesh & Gujarat.

For BJP to win Punjab, it needs to start planning now. Akalis have given a poor government. Moreover, being a border state with Punjab they have not done enough on security front as well. Recent terror attack raises some very pertinent questions on security as well as the rampant drug problem. BJP will do well to either break away from SAD and fight election alone or make sure they fight elections on more seats than the Badal’s. Otherwise Punjab will either go to Congress or AAP. Capt. Arminder is a capable leader who can win it for Congress. AAP winning Punjab will be a disaster.

As for UP, BJP needs to project a strong CM face in front of BSP and SP. In 2014, BJP won 71 seats in Lok Sabha elections but by 2017 it will be a long time in terms of voters memory. Communication and promoting governments schemes is important.

Gujarat has been a BJP strong hold and BJP will hope to repeat the performance again. A change of CM will be a good call as current CM Anandiben Patel handled patildar agitation in not the best of ways.

Lastly BJP will do good in listening to some of the supporters on Social Media & make a more uniform policy on communication & regarding handling Main stream Media. Perception management is important part of democratic process.

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