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Akhilesh in trouble as BJP shines in Zila Panchayat Elections

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The Analyzer
The Analyzer
Political Analyst. Connect with me on Twitter : @Indian_Analyzer

The Panchayat Elections held in UP were being called the Semi-Finals of the next year’s Assembly Elections. Samajwadi Party (SP) had made a dent in the political forts of BJP while batting brilliantly in this Semi-Final. Political experts were saying that the results of the Zilla Panchayat Members Election have indicated a ‘Change’ in UP.

SP’s National President Akhilesh Yadav was also very happy after seeing the results. But, the jolt that the ruling BJP’s electoral management has given to SP in the recent nomination of the District Panchayat President, seems to be an alarm bell for Akhilesh Yadav for the elections to be held next year.

On the nomination day itself BJP had won 17 seats unopposed & on the day of withdrawal of candidature, BJP has won 04 more seats unopposedly, taking its tally to 21. While Akhilesh’s SP managed to win just 01 seat unopposedly.

The Organization on which Akhilesh Yadav was boasting of victory in the 2022 UP Assembly Elections, somewhere the Same Organization has pushed him back. Akhilesh Yadav may be calling it BJP’s deceit and Misuse of Power, but in reality the Organizational Weakness of SP has come to the fore in this whole matter. The SP has not been Successful in projecting itself as the Main Rival to the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. However, SP is trying its best to present itself as the Strongest Political Alternative to the BJP. But, after the Organizational Weakness has come to the fore, this does not seem to be the case.

This can be called a Double Blow for Akhilesh Yadav, who dreamed of winning the UP Assembly Elections 2022 with the help of Momentum gained from Election of the Zila Panchayat President.

SP chief Akhilesh Yadav is talking about bringing Small Political Parties together. But, Omprakash Rajbhar of Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party【SBSP】has already formed ‘Bhagidari Sankalp Morcha’ with Parties like Jan Adhikar Party, Apna Dal Kameravadi, Rashtra Uday Party, Janata Kranti Party, Bharat Mata Party, Bharatiya Vanchit Samaj Party. With the joining of Asaduddin Owaisi with this front, some part of the Muslim vote can be considered to be shifted. Asaduddin Owaisi has also announced that his party will field candidates on 100 assembly seats. Owaisi will try to field his candidates only in Muslim majority seats. My political knowledge says, in this situation there will be a direct loss of SP on these 100 Assembly Seats. According to information received from sources, AIMIM is eyeing on 37 seats of Purvanchal which are Muslim and Dalit dominated.

The Samajwadi Party has been relying on the MY equation (Muslim+Yadav) for a long time to come to power. But, the BJP’s unprecedented majority in the 2017 assembly elections has proved that in the upcoming assembly elections, SP will not be able to cross the electoral spectrum with the help of MY equation alone. Akhilesh Yadav has abstained from alliance with big parties. Small political parties had the support to hold the majority votes, but they are ready to form a separate front. There is bound to be a division of votes by the different path of Congress and BSP. Even if the Muslim vote becomes one-sided, then it is not easy to win only with the help of it.

The SP will also need the support of the majority of the voters. On the other hand, going the soft Hindutva route, the SP will have to take on the BJP in its own den. Akhilesh Yadav’s not being outspoken on the alleged land scam of Ram temple is just a hallmark of this. At the same time, the bet of showing himself strong with the help of the election of the District Panchayat President also seems to be going in vain.

Both the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party aim to infiltrate the BJP’s 40% vote bank that has been with the Party since the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections, the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections and the 2019 Parliamentary Elections.

My Political Analysis says, In Uttar Pradesh, with the Samajwadi Party and the BSP contesting a multi-cornered contest to challenge the BJP separately, the nearly 40 per cent vote share could easily see the BJP coming back to Power in 2022.

One more important thing is that to make BJP loose the Assembly Elections 2022, opposition needs to ensure that around 10% vote of BJP is transferred to a single party which doesn’t seems possible now. Akhilesh Yadav will need to solve these political equations as soon as possible otherwise his political future seems to be in danger.

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The Analyzer
The Analyzer
Political Analyst. Connect with me on Twitter : @Indian_Analyzer
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