Delhi elections are scheduled to be held on the 8th of February and AAP looks confident about coming back to power.
Most of the people are looking at this election as AAP vs BJP and after comparing these 2 parties people are coming with their conclusion but what most of them are missing is the crucial role of INC in this election.
It will be INC who will decide that who will form the government in Delhi, though currently, INC has 0 seats in the assembly of 70 seats but if we observe the data of the elections held in Delhi between 2013 Delhi assembly election to 2019 Lok sabha election then we will get a clear picture of its crucial role in Delhi elections.
In the 2013 Delhi assembly election when Kejriwal formed its government for the first time, at that time, AAP managed to get 29.5% (28seats) vote while INC and BJP got 24.6% (9 seats)and 33% (31 seats) respectively. There was a dip of 15.7% votes in INC’s share.
After that 2014 Lok Sabha elections took place and AAP managed to get 32.90% vote though it could not win any seat but came second on all the 7 seats while INC not only lost all it’s 7 seats which it won in the previous election but also managed to secure only 15% vote and ranked third on all the seats.
Then came the historical Delhi election of 2015 when AAP got 67/70 seats with a vote share of 54.3% while INC came to 0 figure in Delhi assembly too after Delhi Lok sabha results with vote percentage of 9.7 only, while BJP managed to secure only 3 seats with vote share of 32.3% with a dip in vote share not even of 1%.
During the 2017 MCD election, BJP retained MCD with 181 seats and 37% vote share, while first-timer AAP secured only 49 seats with 26% vote share only, one must remember that it was the first election for AAP in Delhi after roaring mandate in 2015 Delhi assembly elections, while INC secured 31 seats with 21% of vote share.
After that in 2019 Lok Sabha elections BJP again won all the 7 seats with a vote percentage of 56.58 but this time AAP secured the third position on 5 out of 7 seats with a vote share of only 18% which means a dip of 14.9% vote from 2014 LS elections while INC’s vote share increased to 22.46% with a swing of 7.36% and also this time though it lost all the seats but secured second place on 5 seats.
Though it can be said that voters vote differently in assembly elections, MCD elections, and Lok Sabha elections but if we observe these data closely then we will see that BJP has the most reliable base vote, because on both the occasion when BJP secured 31 seats and when it secured 03 seats only in Delhi then also it’s vote share was around 32%.
The voter who floats is the voter of INC and AAP, if INC manages even around 20% vote this time then AAP can lose or at-least will be at great risk.
So, the game-changer can be INC who will decide the future of AAP in Delhi. Since recent trends are showing that INC is gaining back its voter’s faith, it poses a serious threat to AAP.
BJP’s base vote percentage is more and it seems that BJP will manage to secure around 30% in all the scenarios, though this time some voters who always vote for BJP and also voted for BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha election can vote for AAP in the assembly elections because of the freebie and other lucrative schemes of AAP government. Now a new but very small section of voters has also evolved who wants BJP is center and AAP in Delhi.
The fight is between AAP and INC to retain the floating common voters. As we can see AAP came down to 18% (base vote) in it’s worst performance while INC came under 10% (base vote) so, the fight is regarding the shift of voters from AAP to INC and if AAP retains the floating vote then it will win comfortably.
And because of all these reasons, BJP wants INC to perform good and that is why BJP is not attacking INC the way it is attacking AAP. Though it seems that this time AAP will get the floating votes but if it floats to INC then it will create trouble for AAP, not to forget that after Lok Sabha how Kejriwal said that at the last moment Muslim votes got shifted to INC.
The latest statement by Dy. CM Manish Sisodia that he stands with the people of Shaheen Bagh, and that the opening of the Kalindikunj road does not fall under his jurisdiction can be seen as a very tactical statement to lure Muslim voters who could vote Congress. However, this statement can go either way and a quite risky statement. Till now it seemed that AAP is only opposing CAA and NRC and silent on Shaheen Bagh and recent JNU issues because of the liberal Hindu vote bank but now after this statement of Mr. Sisodia, a new controversy has started.
So, we can expect that on those seats where candidates of AAP and INC are in a direct fight, there BJP can have more probability of winning the election.