When we talk about the Indian General Election 2019, the one state which at once capture our mind is Uttar Pradesh. There are various reasons to it like presence of huge 80 seats on stake to the successful formulation of SP-BSP-RLD pre poll alliance.
Despite of all the claims made by opposition for the formulation of Anti-BJP alliance, only Uttar Pradesh is a state in which a rock solid anti BJP alliance in on the real turf.
Before the start of polling there was a general consensus that BJP is going to loose heavily on the face of SP-BSP alliance but today after the polling of 7th phase ends it doesn’t seems to be whole truth. So, let’s examine what’s really different political parties are going to get from Uttar Pradesh.
Constituencies in UP can be classified into five categories on the basis of the votes polled by BJP i.e
Sure Shot – These are the seats where vote share of BJP is averaging over 47% and is impossible to win for Alliance even after 95% vote transfer between the two parties (SP and BSP) or seats which are witnessing strong triangular fight and BJP is taking edge in those seats.
Total of 26 seats fall under this category i.e – Ghaziabad, GautamBuddha Nagar, Mathura, Agra, Pilibhit, Lucknow, Etawah, Kanpur, Akbarpur, Jalaun, Allahabad, Barabanki, Faizabad, Kaiserganj, SantKabir Nagar, Maharajganj, Gorakhpur, Deoria, Bansgaon, Salempur, Chandauli, Varanasi, Bhadohi, Mirzapur, Robertsganj, Saharanpur.
Safe Seats – These are the seats where vote share of BJP is above 45 % mark. Shivpal Yadav is a factor on these seats, nearly all of these seats fall in western Uttar Pradesh and Shivpal Yadav’s party is taking the chunk of Yadav Votes. BJP has over three-fourth chance to win these parliamentary constituencies.
Total of 9 seats fall in this category out of which 8 seats are in Westren Uttar Pradesh, this segment includes constituencies of – Bijnor, Bulandshahr, Hathras, Fatehpur Sikri, Etah, Bareily, Farrukhabad, Hamirpur, Kushinagar.
Good Fight – These are the seats where the vote share of BJP is between 42-45% and Alliance can pull these seats in their favour if it clock over 85% vote transfer of there respective vote banks. Shivpal Yadav is again a factor as half of these seats falls in Westren UP where his party is fighting wholeheartedly. BJP has over 55% chance to win each seats in this segment.
Total of 22 constituencies fall under this category and it include – Moradabad, Amroha, Meerut, Aligarh, Aonla, Shahjanpur, Unnao, Jhansi, Fatehpur, Phoolpur, Bahraich, Shravasti, Gonda, Domariyaganj, Basti, Ghosi, Ballia, Jaunpur, Machlishahr, Baghpat, Kairana, Muzzafarnagar.
On the last three seats BJP polled over 50% in two consecutive elections of 2014 and 2017 but this time RLD is making difference in favour of Alliance. But I think BJP’s Sanjeev Balyan in Muzzafarnagar and Pradeep Chaudhary in Kairana will win with a narrow margin because polling percentage in their assembly segment is way high.
Alliance on Upper Hand – These are the seats where are vote share of BJP is between 38-42% and Alliance vote share is around 46% which mean Alliance can pull these seats on a vote transfer of 82-85% between SP-BSP. Most of these seats except one are in Awadh region and Shivpal Yadav is certainly not a foctor here except on few seats.
Total of 8 seats fall under this category and it include – Kheri, Sitapur, Mohanlalganj, Pratapgarh, Banda, AmbedkarNagar, Lalganj, Misrikh.
Note – When we talk about Vote transfer 80-85% vote transfer is a huge thing, no matter how strong the alliance is between the two parties, but here we are giving extra room to Alliance to analyse the worst case scenario for BJP.
Alliance is winning – These are the seats where Alliance will definitely win because there are combined vote share is above 55% and even the worse vote transfer can fetch them these seats, BJP is a non player on these seats.
Total of 15 seats fall under this category and it include – Nagina, Rampur, Sambhal, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Badaun, Dhauraha, Raebareily, Amethi, Sultanpur, Kannauj, Kaushambi, Azamgarh, Ghazipur.
In Firozabad Shivapal Yadav is contesting and he is on the upper hand if he can win then he would support NDA is case of need. Yes, Smriti Irani win again loose Amethi but certainly by fewer margin. Varun Gandhi is contesting Sultanpur on BJP ticket but this seat is very tough to win for BJP. Manoj Sinha will certainly loose Ghazipur but he has done too much work in his constituency, his loss will be bolt on parliamentary democracy where a merit will be defeated by mere caste and religion factor.
After analysing all these 5 factors on the worst case scenario BJP is wining 26 seats and on the best case scenario they will win 65 seats, but possibilities of such result is very less.
9 seats which are under safe seat category and 22 seats which are under good fight category will make the difference in the result and if we factorise them along with 8 seats of 4th category the final tally for BJP will land somewhat around
46 (+/-5) seats.
If this happens it will be a huge defeat of SP-BSP-RLD grand alliance.