No, the congress cannot win the parliamentary elections of 2019. Going by majority of the predictions and trends the Congress is still a long way to go before any chance of winning the Parliamentary Elections in 2024 could be attributed to this party. About the 2019 elections it is already a lost game for the Congress and it is going to be the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) that is going to form the government again after the elections.
In 2004 the BJP decided to hold early elections to regain and retain power after favorable assembly election results in some states like Assam and the mood of the electorate of the country as perceived by the BJP and the NDA. At that stage BJP thought it to be indefatigable, and invincible. Majority of the experts and political analysts gave it clear edge over the rivals and it was generally thought that the BJP, and the NDA, would improve its tally in the Parliament.
Did that happen eventually, no, and what happened eventually surprised one and all. Particularly it sent the leadership of the NDA in shock for the results were diametrically opposite of what they had thought that the results would be. To gain something uncertain and doubtful they lost what was certain and already theirs; those few months of power. Had the party and coalition remained in power for that period, and had it not worked in haste and overconfidence, the results really might have been in favor of the BJP. It was that failed decision which made the coalition to wait for ten long years before they regained the power.
History is a great teacher and in every painful experience of history there are lessons which if used properly could turn out to be pleasant guides of the journey of life. In the electoral history of India the lessons learned in 2004 and at other times in the past could aid us to work wisely this time and this election year. Like 2004 the NDA seems in the driving seats despite some set back in the recently concluded assembly results in some states and the Congress is behind. But is that going to give victory to the BJP eventually?
Is the aforementioned prognosis, given at the outset, the sealed fate of the Parliamentary Election, 2019? Or is the prognosis merely a statement made in haste? Are surprises possible as they did in 2004? The direction of winds seems no doubt favoring the BJP and the NDA but mood of electorate is exactly like winds, you never know when they change the direction. And, when they change, they change in moments. It is never possible to say who exactly the victor and winner of the elections is going to be until the winner is declared and in the similar manner the election 2019 need to be treated.
The BJP and the NDA seem, to many analysts, as the clear winner of the election but they have not won yet, the Congress still is lagging behind in campaigning and strategy but this party has not lost yet. The Congress can still win the elections and form government, at least in coalition. We cannot outrightly declare a party as a winner and the other as the loser, even the scientifically conducted surveys, by using sophisticated tools, prove wrong many times so how can the predictions made without following those techniques and using those tools can be trusted?
The outcomes of elections are always decided by the silent majority, and silent majority remains silent till the end, they speak only by their votes. It is minority always that blows the bugle, keeps blowing it, makes noise and declares winner without having any idea about the mood and need of the majority. Silent majority has many times surprised in the Indian politics.
Of late Congress has shown some promise and the silent majority watches these things. In the post Pulwama attack and post air strikes period the Congress acted in better way than the BJP did. The BJP tried to gain from the strikes. Some of the seasoned leaders like Y. S Yeddyuruppa went to the extent of claiming that the air strikes in Pakistan would give the party 22 seats in Karnataka. At some places the BJP posters were seen carrying the photos of Wing Commander Abhinandan. This was again done to gain the votes. The silent majority remains aware about these developments and they are bound to express their approval or disapproval of the same.
The Congress instead tried to show it as a party which is primarily concerned with the country and people of the country. This party suspended many programs and rallies to show solidarity with the soldiers killed in the Pulwama attack. Though eventually they had to come to the election mood which they did but they tried to show the country that they are doing so because the BJP never stopped doing it. They have a moral edge on the BJP and which could be a big decider.
The strategy of the Congress is to make the campaigns and programs of the Prime Minister Modi as main target of their attacks. The continuous election mood and consistent political statements by the Prime Minister during the government functions, provided the Congress the opportunity to attack the PM and the party and the coalition he belongs to.
Mind you these things work in India, in fact they should work. The Prime Minister is the representative and head of the government and the party he belongs to. An aggressive Prime Minister is an indication of the strong political party and the one who is under attack, and is forced to be defensive, is indicative of weak ruling party. The Congress has succeeded to find cracks, present cracks to the people, in the sense of infallibility of the Prime Minister.
The same airstrikes which the BJP thought would give 22 seats in a single state are proving counterproductive by the counterattacks that the Congress and other political parties resorted to. Thereby it gives a hope to the Congress that it can win the 2019 elections if the party is able to act wisely, and if it is able to form good coalitions.
The Congress so far has not acted the way which an aggressive party is supposed to do to defeat a more aggressive coalition. But then the silent majority at times works irrespective of how the political parties work. They show door to the arrogant and show hope to the underdogs. As such, the Congress still has the chances to win the 2019 elections, if not by its own efforts, campaigning and strategy but may be by the behavior and unpredictable behavior of the electorate and the silent majority. At times arrogance becomes a game changer.