The rise and decline of BJP and Congress in the last 5 years
As usual liberal hotheads have woken up at the last year of general election and started throwing up all calculations and confusions in the minds of each and every voter of India. They forget the saying “Hindu Rate of Growth” which was given to the International media by the same Congress people in 1992 when the question was raised about low economic growth in India.
Remember even in European countries when the economic growth was very low during the start of previous century never ever anyone blamed the culture which was followed by citizens of the country. But Congress went a step ahead and to please the NGOs used the so-called Indian economist Raj Krishna to coin the term “Hindu Rate of Growth” and directly blamed the culture followed by Indian People.
So instead of falling into their trap let us take a step back and do the analysis of seats based on party’s strength. As like how Western media does the analysis, let us segregate the seats of two major parties based on the past outcomes and present strength.
There are two forms of segregation one is ‘Lean’ and other is ‘Strong’ seats. Strong seats are those if the party puts a little bit of effort they can win it easily while Lean are those where the party really need a wave to win it.
So based on the above chart, the following are the conclusions we can derive from each party
First time in the history of Independent India, Congress strongholds are hovering over only 100 Seats.
Congress has completely eradicated itself from the 2 most important states of Hindi belts i.e Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and North Eastern States
If the trend continues it may be a matter of time that Congress would have the infrastructure(booth level workers, Seva Dal members) to become a ruling party only in less than 10 states. Now onwards people can see strange coalitions from Congress as like Karnataka where ruling party willingly wants to enter alliance even though securing more number of seats. Obviously, it will lead to Bihar like a situation where RJD was unable to digest itself in the alliance by not occupying the CM post which eventually led to breaking up of JDU.
Congress has won only 2 assembly elections(Punjab, Pondicherry) after 2014. Rahul Gandhi after taking over as president not even thought of strengthening the party in ground level. It is going to cost congress way beyond any body’s imagination.
So finally if the Congress without any wave kind of situation if it goes to the polls they can maximize themselves up to 120.
There are heavy chances in 2019 Congress will fight itself around 300 seats to financially stay relevant for the 2024 general elections.
Modi wave started around June 2013 at the time he was announced as Campaign committee head of BJP. From that time onwards BJP has never lost a State. They have lost 7 assembly seats in Goa and 13 seats in Gujrat. (Without including by polls)
Lean seats of BJP increased from 230 in 2014 to around 330 Seats in 2019. It means BJP has increased its presence exponentially in 100 seats.
BJP is now either ruling or in Ruling party alliance in 21 states. They themselves are in opposition party (Vote share wise, Number of assembly seats) in 4 states i.e Karnataka, Delhi, WB, Odisha (Emerging Opposition). These 2 statistics tell the real story. If at any point of time election happens BJP has booth level infrastructure to fight in 25 states. In Kerala too they have around 15% of vote share.
Only states they have a negligible presence is AP, Telangana, TN, Punjab, Puducherry and 2 NE States(Sikkim and Meghalaya).
If PM Strategically fights in Puri the temple town of Odisha, the seat combination in the Eastern part of India will tilt towards BJP.
Even without having any wave kind of situation if BJP goes to the polls they can win 240 seats. With little nudge by carefully working on seats, they can touch the figure of 270 which is remarkable considering the general anti-incumbency trend flowing against the ruling party.
As Bill Gates always says if you want to win there are 3 things needs to be done.
1.Need to have Clear Goal
2.Have a comprehensive plan to execute
3. Need to have precise measurements so that it helps to learn, adapt and execute things as things progress.
It seems BJP clearly follows it so for the first time in Independent India there is a party which is fighting strongly in more than twice the number of seats than Congress.
Recent By poll Results:
With respect to recent by-polls in UP as it was very evident that around 75-77% of Hindus unitedly voted for BJP. Which is very remarkable and also along with PM Modi in Campaigning, the deficit of 5% between BJP and United Opposition can be recovered and the fight is still very much open.
With respect to Maharashtra, it seems Shiv Sena has to send feelers to BJP to start the NDA talks or else it will be only a matter of time Shiv Sena might become a party for Mumbai region alone.
In Jharkhand, NDA needs to be intact to take on the united opposition of JMM-Congress.
So it is safe to call 2014 to 2019 as Era of Hope in which Indians with hope directly confronted Mighty Nehru-Indira Dynasty.
Only time can tell whether this Era of Hope will continue for next five years. But there is a strong possibility it can continue.