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What is the chance of BJP winning elections in Karnataka in 2018?

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The state has produced 8 Lingayat CMs, 7 Vokkaliga, CMs, 4 backward class, CMs, two Brahmins CMs. All the three major parties Congress, BjP, and JDS have shared power in Karnataka. At present the fog will be between the three parties only, bothers playing either fringe politics or supportive politics to the major ones.

Poll Surveys.

  1. A Market Research Survey conducted by C-Fore has given Congress an absolute majority of 120 – 130 seats for Congress, 60 – 72 seats for BJP, and 24 – 30 seats to JDS.
  2. Creative Center for Political and Social Studies have in their survey state BJP will get 113 seats which they voted in 2013. They have given 86 seats to Congress and 25 seats.

I will assess region wise. The Karnataka has four distinct regions of Coastal Karnataka, Old Mysore, Hyderabad Karnataka, and Bombay Karnataka. For political purpose I add Bangalore City, because Bangalore city votes differently from other regions.

Coastal Karnataka.

  1. Coastal Karnataka has three districts of Dakshina Kannada (8), Uttara Kannada (6) and Udupi (5). Together they have 19 seats.
  2. Coastal Karnataka is the stronghold of BJP. All the three MP seats are being held by BJP.
  3. However in 2013 Congress did extremely well in this region winning most of the seats, because BJP got divided into three parties, who stood separately.
  4. Since all the three factions got united now, the party is expected to do well here.
  5. BJP, may get any where between 16 seats in this region. Congress 2 seats.

Bombay Karnataka

  1. This region is once again the stronghold of BJP, because of the factor of Lingayats, who are the backbone of the party.
  2. But this time an agitation is going on for Lingayats to be given a separate religious status. This is being encouraged by Siddaramiah, only to gain their votes. Hitherto they were supporting BJP, enblock. This time it will get divided between Congress and BJP.
  3. There are 56 seats in this region. It may be divided in the proportion of 30 to BJP and 25 to Congress.

Hyderabad Karnataka

  1. Hyderabad Karnataka too is the stronghold of BJP, because of Reddy brothers and Yeddiyurappa. Lingayats are the dominant caste in this region.
  2. There are 40 seats in this region. Both BJP and Congress may share the seats with slight advantage to BJP. This area is home to Mallikarjun Kharge, of Congress. Since backward class too, form substantial part of the electorate, their decision is decisive.
  3. Congress may take 16 seats and BJP 23 seats. The rest may go the way of others and independents.

Old Mysore area

  1. This region excluding Bangalore city, has 81 seats. In this region all the three major parties have influence.
  2. BJP is strong in Chikkamagalore (5), Shimoga (7), Kodagu (2), Davanagere (8), Tumkur (10) Bangalore Rural District (4)
  3. Congress is uniformly strong in the entire region.
  4. JDS is strong in Mandya (7) Hassan (7), Ramanagara (4).
  5. This region is Vokkaliga dominated. JDS is strong among Vokkaligas. Congress too is equally strong. With the induction of SM Krishna a vokkaliga into BJP, the party has become strong among this section of the society.
  6. Congress is strong in this region. They may get 42 seats, JDS, 18 seats, and BJP may get 18 seats. The rest may go to independents and others.

Bangalore City

  1. Bangalore is always the stronghold of BJP. The major community Brahmins in the city normally favor, BJP. However Congress gives a run for its money. JDS is very weak here except in couple of seats.
  2. Also Bangalore is home to outsiders who constitute majority.
  3. Bangalore is a cosmopolitan city, with highest concentration of educated and middle class in the state.
  4. BJP may expect 14 seats, Congress 12 seats, and 2 seats to JDS.

When we add up

BJP may get 101 seats. Congress may get 97 seats. JDS may get around 22 seats. Four seats may go to independent and others. Without JDS, government formation is not possible. Also neither Congress or BJP can form the government on their own with the help of independents. No party will get majority. Both Congress and BJP are equally poised in the state.

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