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HomeOpinionsDoklam Dummies: Why China Can’t Invade India… Directly!

Doklam Dummies: Why China Can’t Invade India… Directly!

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Prakash Bebington
Prakash Bebington
Prakash Bebington is a PhD scholar, independent blogger and passionate humanist who espouses the cause of life, liberty and duty. Having worked closely with students as a Professor of Management & Engineering, he has a sense of obligation to these future citizens. He owes his allegiance to no political party, but only to the great nation of India and her future leaders.

“It is not a soldier’s weapon but his courage that achieves victory in battle.”

Since its creation in 1949, the People’s Republic of China has always been paranoid. Why?

The deep insecurity of the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) over their counterparts in Taiwan. The power-hungry CPC had to establish its grip over the vast population of the nation, and quickly. So started the autocratic government controls over every aspect of a Chinese citizen’s life from before conception to death. Where to live, what to think/read/talk/do, how many children… all as per a dystopian rulebook.  Despite all these controls, the CPC was still not feeling secure. And they finally arrived at the one inevitable conclusion of all tyrants–stoke nationalistic (read as “support for rulers”) fervour among the citizenry through threats of external aggression and hopes of territorial expansion. After all, which impoverished person is not afraid of foreigners and does not want more land…! But, war meant more taxing of citizens, and the CPC was scared of pushing the people any further. The trick was to go to war sustaining minimum damage but achieving maximum land. The answer: Unarmed Tibet!

The Chinaman’s love for walls is well known. What wall could be better than the planet’s tallest wall—the Himalayas! The CPC has always dreamt of capturing all of Himalayas and converting it into China’s very own Great Southern Wall with India. Besides being an impregnable security barrier, the Himalayan glaciers would also provide control of all the great rivers flowing into South Asia and South-East Asia. For this “Great Wet Dream”, the CPC needed to capture:

  • The sovereign nations of Tibet, Nepal, Bhutan and Sikkim
  • Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan
  • The Indian states of Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Meghalaya, Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh
  • The Indian territories of West Bengal Hills and Assam Hills

In 1950, the CPC invaded unarmed Tibet! After annexing the pacifist nation and murdering meditating monks, Chinese “soldiers” felt all puffed up.

In 1962, the CPC invaded unprepared India! After throwing 100,000 Chinese soldiers on 10,000 Indian jawans, CPC withdrew following the threat of US (JFK, not Nixon, of course!) entry into the war supporting India.

In 1965, the CPC tried to capture Kashmir by getting Pakistan to wage war with India, but this too failed.

In 1967, the CPC tried to annex the tiny kingdom of Sikkim, but lost after 80 jawans killed off 400 Chinese soldiers.

In 1971, the CPC tried to capture Meghalaya, Tripura and West Bengal Hills through its bedfellow West Pakistan, but ended up losing the whole nation—and the birth of a new nation called Bangladesh!

In 1975, when the CPC again tried to sneak into Sikkim, the kingdom joined India as its 22nd state. The CPC was most upset!

All these repeated failures against India drained China’s resources and citizens’ patience. This scared the CPC into opting for a more indirect approach to its “Mission Capture Himalayas” fantasy. The Chinese military had learnt its lesson—the Indian jawan can never be defeated in battle again. So, in 1978, the CPC changed strategy from militaristic to economic expansionism and adopted a new Constitution in 1982 (32 years after India’s Constitution). Now, they tried the indirect (Sun Tzu) way—“psychologically scare the enemy”. For this, they captured (by bribery and/or blackmail) a large group of Indian politicians (Leftists, Congress), senior bureaucrats (diplomats, military chiefs), journalists (print, TV, online) and other opinion leaders, and made them cook up a false image of an all-powerful Chinese military machine (quite like the “scary” plastic dragon used in Chinese dragon dance) and feed it to the Indian population steadily over a generation. With strict control over China’s media, the CPC unwaveringly pushed this illusion—a carefully manipulated perception—for the last 35 years, just like it manipulates China’s currency for trade advantages. All the while, the CPC has halved the number of fighting men and doubled their firepower—knowing fully well that these “dummy” soldiers from China’s one-child families are unfit for face-to-face bloody combat.

This CPC long-con has outlasted even the long-con of the Soviets and it yielded fruits when the CPC propped up the “South China Sea Scarecrow” with feisty Vietnam and Philippines. Emboldened by this naval victory against ASEAN neighbours, the CPC has now turned towards its one real challenger in the region—India—the nemesis of its “Operation Capture Himalayas” daydream. Ergo, the “Doklam Scarecrow” bluff. Now, the problem with bluffing is that it lasts only until someone calls it. NSA Ajit Doval knows that if India backs off from Doklam, Bhutan and Nepal will surrender to China in quick succession. Next, Pakistan would attack Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh, while China would simultaneously invade Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim and West Bengal Hills (the GJM unrest is already an indication of a foothold situation). Of course, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not going to back off. The longer he digs in, the greater the chances of Bhutan joining India as its 30th state (just like Sikkim in 1975). There is no downside for India, but only downsides for China. And, for smoke-and-mirrors illusionist Xi Jinping, the deadline is 1st October 2017—his re-election day!

The CCP knows that the vast Tibetan frozen desert, the Himalayas, the Karakoram and the Hindukush mountains make it impossible to sustain a long conventional war with India. Prime Minister Modi has also proactively placed the NAVIC global positioning satellite system to watch over the borders 24×7. In the extremely unlikely scenario that war does break out…

  • India’s mountain fighting forces as well as the Airforce enjoy the home-ground advantage (i.e., strong supply lines) in defending the south side of the Himalayas.
  • Japan and Israel will provide weapons and munitions support.
  • Bangladesh and Nepal will provide logistical support.
  • The US may provide diplomatic backing.

Inevitably, the PLA will lose, and lose miserably if their incursion stretches beyond two weeks. China’s defeat against India will immediately embolden the ASEAN littorals to reclaim their lost territory and national pride.

Albeit, CPC’s agents in India and abroad will repeatedly remind Indian citizens of 1962 and the “Almighty Han Forces” to “deceive and dishearten the enemy” like Sun Tzu, carefully projecting the scary plastic dragon, hiding its empty insides.

And the CPC junta—obsessed with their Go gameboards and ancient “glory”—will move on to propping up other scarecrows in Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Sikkim and West Bengal Hills. The futile “Mission Capture Himalayas” game will continue…

Remember: When it comes to the Chinese, it may look like a duck, quack like a duck,
and may even swim like a duck, but it is NOT a duck, just a f…!

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Prakash Bebington
Prakash Bebington
Prakash Bebington is a PhD scholar, independent blogger and passionate humanist who espouses the cause of life, liberty and duty. Having worked closely with students as a Professor of Management & Engineering, he has a sense of obligation to these future citizens. He owes his allegiance to no political party, but only to the great nation of India and her future leaders.
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