An analysis of the verdict of assembly elections in Assam, Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala
The results in the recent assembly elections of five states prove that BJP has retained the caption as Pan India Party, which was once claimed by INC spreading its tentacles from J&K to Kerala, from Gurajat to Far east Assam / Arunachal Pradesh. With INC being in power in 6 states, and just Karnataka being a major one, has just shrunken with loss of state after state, after 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
Modi wave has not only swept the entire country, rather it completely decimated the Congress and is in a position of serious credibility crisis with one after the other scams that are earthing out even after out of power for last two years.
Bihar was always a low hanging fruit for BJP, which they missed out and it hurt the party very badly. Delhi results was very close as far as BJP was concerned, though the result proved otherwise, giving clear verdict to AAP. But it never hurt most, as much the Bihar lose. BJP had invested lot of time and money in bihar to claim it, but it was Nitish kumar strategy of shaking hands with Lalu and Congress resulted in a great victory. For BJP, it was always must win after the lose of Bihar.
Just Assam being a chance in these five states, the change in strategy after losing both Delhi and Bihar has bear fruits to them with the massive victory in Assam. Credit goes to RSS and its brainchild Ram Madhav for last 20 years of hard work which resulted in claiming Assam today.
As far as south Indian states are concerned, the party once thought as untouchable has opened its first account in kerala and another seat losing marginally by 89 votes. But, the vote share of the party stands taller with the other two parties claiming reliable third front which the Keralite can look for in the coming years.
With Modi and Amit Shah leading the party, and RSS having a strong foot, focus on kerala will never be diminished and it will strengthen year after year. It will not be a surprise, if BJP emerges as a major Opposition party in the coming years or may be in the next assembly elections similar to Assam. And Amma returning in Tamil Nadu, has just brought the smile on BJP’s central Leadership.
Same is the case with the West Bengal. It was always a “Do or Die” situation for Left more than congress with losing its presence, and election after election in west Bengal. This results will prove to be a last nail on Left coffins if they not stick to its core ideology of socialism rather supporting anti national elements that took place in JNU and Jadhavpur University. Left shaking its hand with Congress has not gone well with the public, rather helping Congress to retain the Leader of Opposition in Bengal.
But, as far as the numbers are concerned they are very far behind TMC. Whatever may be Corruption case, or appeasement Politics, Didi has just returned with bang hitting hard against all the parties which were against it.
Following closely these elections, my take on BJP strategy in WB was always to be a Kingmaker in a hung Assembly, later joining hands with TMC in power share and retaining greater power share during Lok Sabha elections in 2019. But, however, Janatha Janardhan has given full verdict to her. Kudos to her for sailing the party to victory single handedly even with corruption allegation from all the parties.
But one positive thing for BJP is the Vote share has not been diminished and its core vote bank still being intact at around 11% will play a decisive part in next coming years emerging as main opposition to the TMC replacing Left/Congress. From now onwards, it will be very difficult for Left to return unless and until someone credible face won’t take over it. But BJP being at center and proper guidance and ground work from BJP karyakartas and grooming young local BJP leaders will surely bring BJP in the forefront in the Bengal politics in the coming years. But, BJP need a credible local candidate who can take the party ideology with the masses with inclusive development of all.
With the major states going for elections in the next year, the Assam result has just boosted the moral of BJP central leadership and local party members, which was low after the lose of Bihar Elections. With Modi having full control over the party and with RSS backing, has better chance of winning major elections in next years and even returning in 2019. (Return of two powerful women has just increased the chance of Modi coming back to power in 2019 which I will post it in my next post)
All the best to the party and the statesmen whom we trust the most.