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M-factor and Uttar Pradesh election 2022

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Muslim League demanded for partition of India only because Muslims were in ‘minority’ in British India. Had they been in majority, they would not have demanded Pakistan. Rather they would have loved to rule over minority Hindus and persecute and convert them as they have been doing in Pakistan after August 1947. For Congress Party, 99 percent of British Indian Muslims, before August 1947, became thorn in the side. Those Muslims were such a ‘type of minority’ that they could force Congress Party to accept the partition of British India for creation of Islamic Pakistan for Muslims.

But short-sighted Congress Party did the original sin in the newly independent India by accepting the Muslims as ‘minority’ again. Following independence, Gandhi and Nehru became extra sensitive about the safety, care and rights of minority Muslims in independent India, who did not migrate to Pakistan for which they fought so violently. So, Pakistan was created for the Muslims, but ‘Muslim minority thorn’ remained in the side of India.

The honeymoon of Indian Muslims continued with Congress for decades as the former stood solidly behind the Congress as its committed voters. This served two purposes. Firstly, Congress could be sure of its Muslim vote bank and secondly the Muslims could gradually start asserting as ‘minority’ in Indian politics. Subsequently, the Muslims left Congress and aligned with so-called secular regional political parties like SP, BSP, RJD, and TMC.

Congress and all the so-called secular regional political parties kept on dividing Hindu voters on caste line. Thus with the increase in proportion of Muslim population over the decades, they became a deciding factor in Indian elections. Congress first, and all the so-called secular regional political parties later, started licking the boots of Indian Muslims. Unfortunately, these boot licking exercises became the epitome of ‘Indian secular politics’.

Then BJP entered into Indian politics in a big way in 2014 and all hell of secular politics broke loose. The Left-Liberal-Islamist cabal of India suddenly discovered the Hindu communal politics of BJP. The cabal conveniently forgot that it was Congress and so-called secular regional political parties, who were neck-deep in Muslim oriented communal politics all along. The cabal tried to hide their Muslim oriented communal politics by constantly blaming BJP for Hindu communal politics.

It is well known that 99 percent of Indian Muslims does not vote for BJP and never will they. Thanks to the anti-BJP propaganda of Left-Liberal-Islamist cabal. BJP accepted this fact and coined the tag line “Sab Ka Saath, Sab Ka Vikash, Sab Ka Biswas”. Though BJP has been trying to remain neutral in its developmental activities, Muslim psyche against BJP remains unchanged. Thus the said tag line is used by BJP for national and international consumption.  

In the recently concluded Uttar Pradesh Assembly election, BJP came back to power by crushing anti-incumbency factor. The Left-Liberal-Islamist cabal had something else in its mind. It swung into the electoral field of UP about one month prior to election with men and money. The cabal chose SP (Samajwadi Party) to boost it up with all Muslim votes, which was about 20 percent in the state. The cabal made pro-SP hype in the media through extensive and intensive propaganda. The cabal members shouted that BJP would be ousted from power by SP. Muslims of the state also voted for SP en-block. But still SP lost the election.

Out of total 403 Assembly seats, ‘BJP plus’ won the election with 274 seats and 45 percent of vote share, which was comprised of Hindu votes mainly and a small proportion of Muslim votes. The ‘SP plus’ won 124 seats with 36 percent of vote share which, in all probability, was comprised of 18 percent Muslim and 18 percent Hindu votes. While ‘SP plus’ gained 72 seats ‘BJP plus’ lost 48 seats vis-à-vis last election results of 2017. SP’s gain came at the expense of BJP, Congress and BSP mainly. In 2022 election Congress and BSP were pushed to almost oblivion in UP. While ‘SP plus’ gave a determined fight and made some dent into BJP seat numbers, it failed to reach the magic figure of 202 seats by a long gap of 78 seats.

The positive points those helped BJP were good governance, improved law and order situation, better women’s safety, infrastructural developments, supporting poor people of the state with free ration during Covid19 pandemic, smooth and unbiased implementation of all socio-economic schemes, lack of corruption, running of bulldozer on land grabber criminals and starting of the construction of Ram Mandir etc.. Though all those positive things could not attract Muslim votes in BJP’s favor, division of Hindu votes was minimal and a large chunk of Hindu votes, cutting across caste lines, went in favor of BJP.

SP has been publicly known as a party of ‘M’ and ‘Y’, meaning Muslims and Yadavs. Even in 2022 election also, SP did not shy away from this identity. The party earned a very bad name during its rule from 2012 to 2017 in the state. It was labeled as ‘Goonda Raj’ of M-Y party by the people of the state. This was a main negative point against SP. The Dalit leader and BSP supremo Ms Mayawati, in post poll press brief, had said that BSP did miserably as Muslim voters did not support the Dalits. So, obsession with Muslim votes in UP continued to persist even after election.

The UP election results 2022 has proved that if Hindu votes get consolidated in favor of BJP, then with all Muslim votes no other political party can come to power in the state. The results of UP election 2022 also showed that Hindus could resist division of voters on caste lines and stand unitedly behind BJP. It is for the second term that the Muslims of UP have remained away from the political power center of the state. If they want to continue like this, it is their choice. The more non-BJP parties will align with Muslims, stronger BJP will be. If non-BJP parties can’t see the writing on the wall, it too is their choice.           

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