Only BJP can defeat the BJP in the upcoming By-Elections to be held in 24 assembly constituencies of Madhya Pradesh in the coming months. Out of these 24 assembly constituencies, 16 belong to Gwalior-Chambal region a land of mass leaders like Vajpayee and Scindia.
This time it looks more of a park stroll for BJP post -Scindia joining the party. But it can turn out to be a Chambal ravine stroll as well. Although BJP may win the majority of these constituencies, the elections are going to be tough for the BJP due to below reasons.
Three key factors-
- Collateral Damage to the long-timers in BJP:
Collateral damages can be dangerous when it comes to insiders. The party which has been known for its disciplined and dedicated cadre, who worked to build it from scratch, can’t afford the defection of such cadre. But this may happen when the cadre which fought against Congress to build the organization may have to vacate their candidature for their erstwhile contenders.
- Opportunity for youth and hardworking talent within INC:
Congress has been marred with factionalism everywhere and it has always been a party for privileged few, who runs the party to make cadre more faithful to them rather than the party. This has been and will be the biggest reason to cause disruption in Congress whenever they face defection of such tall leaders.
On the other hand BJP will not have such issues until they follow their core principle which is the cadre-based organisation.
But as every cloud has a silver lining, this is an opportunity for the Congress to start working more on cadre-based grounds and start recognizing the bright and talented youth within the organization.
Although chances of such development within Congress are very grim, but if it happens this prodigy can give a tough fight to their old-time gurus.
- All-Stars team fails:
We always think of an unbeatable cricket team or best eleven where you have all the star players for every line-up. But in the real world, such teams are bound to fail.
Similarly, when you have more leaders than party workers, there are very good chances of ego clashes and mistrust.
Whether it is a sport or politics chemistry and accountability among star players is a must, lack of any of it can lead to a disaster.
Time will only decide whether BJP can work on these key factors and bring more stability in governance by bringing more constituencies in its fold in the upcoming state assembly by-elections. Or can Congress capitalize on these factors and surprise all with its performance.
One thing is very clear the dynamics of Gwalior-Chambal politics are changed and this change is witnessed after many decades. How new dynamics will work will be decided post-election.
I have always witnessed that 2 plus 2 never adds up to 4 in politics, it can be anything and sometimes lead to subtraction as well. It all depends on synergies and narratives.