“Success only feeds the appetite of aggression” as was noted by American President Lyndon B. Johnson (Statement at White House News Conference on July 28, 1965) some 60 odd years ago, however, the true connotations of it have been understood properly by over by a billion strong Indians since past 60 odd years. Of course the aim of author is not at Pakistan for how it could have an appetite born out of success? Success here spoken of, is of the People’s Republic of China- who since Mao’s bloody revolution has marched on ahead to the tune of Yìyǒngjūn Jìnxíngq(their national anthem) under the 1978 economic reforms of it’s earlier Paramount Leader – Deng Xiaoping, to eventually become an Economic Success story like never seen before (or so is at least believed by Leftists, Progressives, Democrats, Communists, Maoists, Urban Naxalites, etc. world over). So how does this success transfer over to the aggressive actions – both overt and covert – of the Red Dragon? Well contrary to popular opinion, it is not simply the expansionist beliefs of the Chinese but instead it stems from one of the most basic needs of existence i.e. need of self-preservation. Obviously not self-preservation of China as a nation but that of the Communist Party of China (hereinafter referred to as CPC).
To first understand how the CPC maintains its power in China by being aggressive on foreign lands and oceans, one must – like a good inquisitor must always – look at history for answers. As is the history of Bharat, China too was an old, mostly peaceful, civilization focused on knowledge and high standards of living, which too like Bharat, never went around carrying large scale foreign invasions. It was hard as it is to maintain peace, order and most importantly stability, considering the massive population which China has always had. In fact China has long held the title of most populated, and even as far back as 1820 it could boast of containing more than 380 million citizens, which was more than six times the combined populations of Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States at that time. Therefore, more than one in three people alive in 1820 were Chinese. [Why did China’s population grow so quickly? By David Howden and Yang Zhou, The Independent Review, v. 20, n. 2, Fall 2015, ISSN 1086-1653, pp. 227-248] Such a massive population needs a massive amount of food, solution: extremely fertile floodlands in Eastern China of two rivers: the Yellow River (Huáng Hé) and Yangtze River (Cháng Jiāng). However, it all changed on that one rainy day when came the devil (or Communism as you may know it).
The produce of the agriculture was enough for the Chinese since centuries but not enough for the ambitions of present day CPC. And soon the overcautious CPC realised that their agricultural prosperity was at the mercy of a tiny weak country – Tibet, as both these rivers originate from the glaciers at Tibet. Thus, to the CPC it was unacceptable that a weak country like Tibet with practically no army was keeping the entire China at it’s mercy. Moreover, there was always the risk that Bharat could take over Tibet (even if not overtly than by becoming an ally of Tibet) and in case of war with China, block the water or poison the water of the two fertile rivers. To the foreign media and it’s own citizens Mao gave the ‘casus belli’ of Tibet being an integral part of China historically (same reason Hitler gave for conquering Yugoslavia). The same could not be farther from truth as: Tibet had always been an independent kingdom; and, to close the argument, the Tibetans are ethnically different from the mainland Han Chinese. However, the real reason for the conquest and genocide of Tibetan people was for the aforementioned agricultural autonomy reason and to secure itself from future Bharatiya conquest by using the natural barrier of Himalayan mountains which would slow down terribly an advance of Bharatiya army towards it’s mainland. (In retrospect the reasoning of CPC was highly flawed as Bharat was at that time being ruled by the most ineffective, morally corrupt and cowardly leader in history bar none.)
Now that the present day China came to be on a political map, the next task for CPC was to ensure it’s stability. As we all know the prime reason why Communism doesn’t work is because it makes people too poor and as a corollary corrupt (ex. Venezuela, USSR, North Korea) which rots the Communist governments from within; eventually leading to a total collapse as people with empty stomachs protest the loudest. But here is where the devil transmogrifies to become a worse Capitalist than even the worst Capitalists (author is not Amartya Sen or any of those “learned” economists who regularly cry & crib on NDTV; hence, no explanation as to intricacies of the 1978 economic reforms will be offered). This wiseness (hypocrisy?) of the CPC has allowed it to not only remain in power but also grow stronger and stronger. However, as is the nature of things, there is a price to be paid for everything, even economic progress, which in this case is dependency on foreign imports.
Many know that China is world’s largest exporter, but few know that China is also the world’s second largest importer, primarily importing oil and minerals which inturn fuel it’s industries and allow it to be world’s largest exporter. To give a small instance of Chinese dependence on imports – recently Chinese MNC Huawei which draws annual revenues of well over a 100 billion USD, went on “survival mode” (as said by Guo Ping, Rotating Chairman, at Huawei’s Annual Analyst Conference) after USA tightened it’s policy on exporting semiconductors; and this as we know is only the beginning of the world’s backlash at China for having exported Wuhan Virus.
To get back to eternal leery attitude of the CPC leadership, it has a history of using People’s Liberation Army (hereinafter referred to as PLA) and grabbing territory both on land and water inch-by-inch from other nations lest those territories be ever used against them. China has always wanted to use the Himalayas as a natural barrier to protect its otherwise geographically vulnerable mainlands. The Aksai Chin and Sino-Indian war were an attempt by China to wrest control over the entire Himalayan region. However, thanks to the bravery of our jawans, China realised that winning the war won’t be a possibility, so it chose to quit while it was leading the race and took over a large portion of Kashmir into itself. Thereafter, recently China again decided to give it’s people a show by picking on a Bharat they thought weak and feeble. The CPC leadership acted prematurely and thereafter again got scared when it witnessed that Bharat wasn’t going to sit silently over it’s transgressions on border.
Furthermore, international pressure also started to mount up against China with even typically anti Bharat establishments like Al Jazeera singing India’s tune. Thus, even though China invested billions in Military and buying out lackeys like Sri Lanka, Nepal, Myanmar, Pakistan, Rajdeep, entire NDTV and Congress; still it was defeated by India’s superior diplomacy in establishing strategic alliances with powerful nations like Russia, USA, Japan, Israel, UK etc, built on friendliness of a cult of personality aka Modi. Of course the Red Dragon will be back.
But this is not the end of CPC’s evil designs – it’s transgressions on South China Sea are known to all. Chinese Navy has almost taken exclusive control of the South China Sea by pumping billions to build a formidable Navy and thereafter aggressively stationing those ships & submarines in the South China Sea. (Similar attempts to deploy Naval fleet was also done in Indian Ocean but the Brave Indian Navy countered the evil design of China). As can be seen from the words of Cpt. James E. Fannell (Retd.) who worked for 30yrs in US Naval Intelligence:
“China has spent billions of dollars on a military that can achieve the dreams of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Under the CCP, the PRC is an expansionist, coercive, hypernationalistic, militarily and economically powerful, brutally repressive, totalitarian state.
…Beijing chooses to spend its precious resources on military force buildup. Much of that investment has gone into the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). The momentum created by the PLAN’s rapid advances in the maritime domain threatens to do for the rest of the world what the Communist Party has done for China Proper and its neighbors (Xinjiang and Tibet, Cambodia and Laos), establishing military, political, and economic domination, to varying degrees—as the PRC pursues what President Xi calls his China Dream.” [Fanell, James E. (2019) “Asia Rising: China’s Global Naval Strategy and Expanding Force Structure,” Naval War College Review: Vol. 72: No. 1 , Article 4.]
However why is China so aggressively claiming the entire South China Sea? Well the answer is simple it’s eternal leeriness. As earlier said it is the world’s largest importer, and how do these imports reach China? You guessed it by ships. Hence, CPC understands that if a warlike situation arises the NATO (which is allied with almost all nations present in South China Sea such as Vietnam, Japan, Indonesia, etc. and has several Military bases in those ally countries) could cut it’s supply lines and cripple the entire China. As anybody with common sense would tell you, easiest way to win a fortified castle is to cut its supply of food and essential items whereby starving the people inside. This way you defeat the enemy even without fighting the enemy. And this is precisely what keeps up senior officials of CPC at wee hours of night.
Given the anti-China sentiment running amok to the world, the moot point is that China realises better than the author or you, that the backlash is coming. CPC knows of the impeding Economic doom of China when all the countries will put out their investments from their country. One need not imagine the situation then. China’s biggest asset – its population, will become its biggest liability as unemployment will be at highest and people with nothing better to do often devote themselves to destructive tasks, and whose destruction will these unemployed, unhappy, financially desperate citizens dedicate themselves to then? The source of their problems i.e. the Communist Party of China. Hence, to avoid that horrible outcome, and moreover, to instill faith in the common citizens, China is taking special care to not appear weak to both – the foreign nations and it’s domestic population. It is taking harsh steps using it’s expert-at-bullying military (The same military which had run over peacefully protesting student with tanks in Tiananmen Square).
It is cracking down on Hong Kong to give Chinese middle class hope that country is acting tough against those who have it better than regular Chinese (similar to modus operandi of Pakistani govt. in the way it keeps attacking Bharat so that the citizens of Pakistan get taken over by the fervour and do not wake up to realise the hell-hole they live in). Moreover, Hong Kong people do have Google and basic human rights, a luxury regular Chinese middle class can only dream of. All the moves CPC is taking are simply directed towards calming the population and keeping it occupied so the Chinese people don’t realise what they are going to face because of the the CPC. Border skirmishes with Bharat too played a similar role. Meanwhile we are mistaking the action for the cause, the cause is to keep the people busy, and the action is to feed the Chinese populace a fervour of realising the “China Dream” as envisaged by Mao and Xi Jinping.
To conclude, the proof is in the pudding that CPC is a very insecure and leery political organisation, which is why it is so scared of Google, Twitter, naval blockade, Bharat, Tibet, NATO, drought of Foreign Investment etc. So the overwhelming dependency on foreigners with a fearful attitude of all things foreign, creates a powerful bully who like an angry Ox sees red everywhere. As per the informed assessment of the author the Chinese Ox is in the China shop destroying China itself with it’s desperate attempts to fool it’s citizenry, and one way or other this will not end well for China. The author predicts keeping in mind the age old adage “the bigger they are the harder they fall,” that China will soon get rife with citizen unrests and within next 15-20 years the China as we know under the CPC will cease to exist and like it’s predecessor and idol USSR, will fragment into tiny pieces of autonomous states.