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Why Modi’s wall is still fortified

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In recent months BJP has lost After the loss of BJP in Jharkhand, many are saying that now the end of Modi’s era has started but is it true?

The answer is a big No!

Though BJP has lost 5 assembly elections in recent time we should remember that there is a big difference between assembly elections and Lok Sabha election.

As a matter of fact, we should not forget that it is BJP which gave Jharkhand a stable government after 14 years.

People vote differently in assembly elections and Centres election, when it comes to state election then people vote considering local issues of election and the rate of success of tenure of CM plays a crucial role. Here anti-incumbency also comes into play, no doubt top leadership gives a positive impact and gains votes for the party but unlikely Lok sabha elections in this election people give more importance to state issues and image of CM face and the party leaders.

The best example is 2019 Lok Sabha election when in spite of Mahagathbandhan people voted Modi to power because people wanted stable good governance, in Delhi AAP didn’t get any seat, even its supporters were aware that voting AAP to power in Lok Sabha will be a futile exercise.

Congress lost the election everywhere very badly because people rejected dynastic incapable leadership as well as for sure unstable government.

But when it came to assembly elections then BJP lost many states because of which many people are saying that Modi- Shah has lost the charm but it is better to understand that there can be other reasons of loss after getting such massive mandate in Lok sabha.

As far as loss in Jharkhand in concerned apart from other factors Raghubar Das’s fight with his earlier party man Saryu Rai also damaged him, he lost the election to Saryu Rai, Mr Rai’s image is very clean, he is known for exposing fodder scam of Bihar, mischief of Madhu Koda and cleaning work of Damodar river. The sidelining of Sarge Rai by Raghubar Das has not only costed the Jamshedpur seat but also effected the base vote very badly.Also, the fact that Raghubar Das was a non tribal leader could also be a reason.

The reasons can be anti-incumbency or not up to the mark work by the local leaders. We can remember that because of national policies and brand Modi when people were voting in Lok sabha then they were having a feeling that they are directly voting Modi for the post of PM but this feeling can’t take place when it comes to State assembly elections.

If we see the case of Delhi then Kejriwal’s slogan that ‘Delhi Me To Kejriwal’ makes the picture clear, this slogan has a hidden message that Kejriwal has accepted that at Lok sabha election he has no significance but at state election he wants people to vote for him because here he still thinks he can have an impact.

So, it is quite clear that Lok sabha and Vidhan sabha elections are very different in nature and same voters vote differently in these elections considering national policies and top leadership in Lok sabha but local issues in Vidhan sabha. No doubt party and its candidate gets the benefit of top leadership and name of the party but not as much as the candidates get to benefit in Lok sabha elections.5 assembly elections and many people are claiming that this has started the end of Modi era but is it true?

Written By- Ashutosh Rabindra
Advocate,Studied at Kirori Mal Colleg and CLC,Faculty Of Law,Delhi University

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