The forthcoming by-poll in two assembly constituency in Tamil Nadu such as Vikravandi and Nanguneri is not just another by-election but the alliance partnership of congress and DMK is under litmus test.
Defeat of congress and victory of DMK means, Congress would again comeback to the receiving end of criticism and beggary. On the contrary, if congress wins and DMK loses the Vikravandi constituency that is the end for DMK where the alliance partners are going to have greater might and negotiating power. Imagine if both congress and DMK wins, naturally both these parties are likely to think that alliance between congress and DMK is enough to win election as like in the days of Indira Gandhi and such situation is going to push VCK and MDMK, left etc., to the corner of irrelevance and poor bargaining capacity. They would be left to take or leave it situation by both congress and DMK.
Another possible issue also comes up for debate this time. The winner of the by-poll is if from DMK-congress, has only one and half years, has to sit in the opposition bench, can’t do anything to the constituency and has to face election again in 2021. For such acid test, why should DMK or congress candidate spent money and win? Even if the candidate wins, there is no surety that the same candidate would get ticket to contest again in 2021.
If both congress candidate and DMK candidate loses the by-poll, that would be good for VCK, MDMK and congress because they can collectively corner DMK and can limit the DMK to go for a coalition government than single party dominance. Therefore it is not just victory, but the margin of victory of DMK also should bother the alliance parties. In all probability, DMK must lose, if congress, VCK and MDMK ever wants to be in government in 2021. Only through defeat of DMK in Vikravandi, the alliance parties can establish their dominance and voice and also can prove the global truth that MK Stalin is not a great leader although DMK is still a political force to reckon with.
The electorates of Nanguneri and Vikarvandi must act wisely than politically. By defeating AIADMK, the people of both these constituencies are not going to gain anything except electing a candidate of either DMK or congress who may not able to do anything great to the constituency. On the other hand, if people of the constituency elect AIADMK candidate, certainly AIADMK would do enormous work in the constituency to keep the support the people.
The issue before the alliance partners of AIAMDK is quite curious and obvious. To keep the momentum going for the alliance, all of them have to work together to ensure AIADMK wins the by-poll. Such victory will make AIADMK to keep the alliance intact where all the alliance partners will have a voice and audience in AIADMK. Otherwise people would naturally ask why such alliance exists in the first place when victory is not possible.
PMK, DMDK etc., can become partners in coalition government in 2021 if they work together with AIAMDK. Defeat of DMK is must for the survival of PMK, DMDK as a strong DMK means imminent political obituary of these political forces.
Wise bargaining with AIADMK is quite possible for these parties than with DMK. Once PMK, DMDK etc., could come to power through coalition government likely to be headed by AIADMK, these parties can easily liquidate the vote share of DMK and grow.
The real problem of DMK is lack of leadership. The present president of DMK lack wisdom, articulation, vision and effective communication skill. He fumbles when speak, mixes facts and his speeches becomes the favourite ingredient for creating memes.
Who knows, many senior DMK leaders also may be murmuring that Stalin must be defeated tactically and only then their relevance can be restored otherwise the party would become a family show, sold totally to one family.
The alliance partners of DMK must realize the absolute truth that DMK is more weak and precarious than AIADMK. AIADMK has been in power for 10 years and nothing wrong if they have to take rest for 5 years. But another 5 year rest for DMK means, DMK would vanish from the political map of Tamil Nadu which is well known to DMK. Therefore DMK would agree to come for any political compromise but must win. This situation VCK, congress, left and MDMK must capitalize fully and must cut DMK to size that it cannot win election without alliance. Similarly it is do or die battle for PMK, DMDK etc., to taste power if they fully commit to the cause of alliance with AIADMK.
People of the state should not get confused with which party is relatively better and why should they waste their vote by supporting smaller parties which in any way cannot form government in the state.
If the state of Tamil Nadu has to be improved further, pushed to the path of prosperity and development, governance free of corruption, nepotism and dynastic politics, BJP is the hope, promise and future. Certainly Rajnikanth also holds the future of Tamil Nadu if he enters the fray. Hope BJP and Rajnikanth individually or together with AIAMDK alliance would save the state from dynastic politics.