End of US hegemony
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine policy in the Eastern Europe region, China’s growing influence on the global level & the same time capitol attack, and the killing of George Floyd which have deepened the crisis in America have sparked the debate on the end of US hegemony.
Reasons for possible end of US hegemony:
1. Russia-China alliance: The closeness of Russia and China has reached an all-time high as they look forward to creating a united front against a similar enemy, the US. Western sanctions against Russia have further pushed it into Beijing’s lap and the US policy of isolating China in South Asia through the formation of quad & relations with Taiwan have further strengthened relations between Russia & China. China’s recently backed Russia in the Ukraine crisis and has also purchased Russian oil to bail out the Kremlin’s economy from western sanctions. The close relationship between these two ‘communist-nation’ will create a ‘two-front war’ situation for Washington.
2. De-dollarization: Putin’s aim of weakening the dollar’s global supremacy can be seen in the Moscow forex reserve where the share of the dollar is just 6.6%.The aim is supported by china by agreeing to a yuan-ruble transaction, Russia is also in talks with India to make a plan for rupee-ruble-denominated payments as an alternative to Belgium-based cross-border payment operator, SWIFT as the US and European Union has cut off seven Russian banks from this system. US adversary in the middle east, Iran is also in talks with India for dollar-less payment transactions between the two nations.
3. Nato collapse coming closer: Germany, a country known for its ruthless military has turned into a Pacifist spectator. Bundeswehr, {German military} condition is catastrophic due to meager expenditure, just 1.2% of GDP. Readiness of the military rate is below 50%.On other hand, France aims to resurrect itself as individual power rather than being part of collective security. Its increased defense expenditure to 3% of GDP is proof of that. Macron in 2019 called Nato ‘Brain dead’ & appealed for the creation of a ‘European army’ to not depend on external hegemonic powers treating Europe as the center of rivalry. It also aims to gain leadership of western Europe through its closeness with Russia & shuttle diplomacy.
While turkey follows ‘pendulum diplomacy’ in which it looks to maintain a balance of relations between the West and Russia. While it is part of Nato it purchased an S-400 missile system, Sukhoi S-35 & 5th generation Stealth fighter SU-35 from Russia. The purchase of the S-400 attracted CAATSA sanctions from the USA. Erdogan{turkish president} continued suppression of dissent & resistance towards ‘Power abandonment’ goes against the democratic ethos embraced by the USA. The individualistic rather collective approach being followed by Nato nations will be the reason for Nato’s collapse which will further weaken US hegemony.
4. China Debt trap diplomacy: Beijing through its debt-trap diplomacy aims to increase its influence all over the globe.Already its Belt and Road initiative have reached different parts of the world and several nations have also become the victim of it. Djibouti offered land to china to set up its military base as it was unable to repay the Chinese debt equalling 80% of its GDP. Similarly, Sri Lanka currently facing an economic crisis gave its strategic Hambantota port to China on 99 years lease as it was unable to repay the debt taken to develop the port.
China’s loans to Africa skyrocketed to $30 bn in 2016 from $7bn in 2010. It also spread its network to Russia’s zone of influence ‘the central Asian region’ where most nations like Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are already trapped in China’s debt-trap diplomacy. China’s debt trap is already on the verge of becoming pan-continental through which it will exploit ‘political leverage’ from debt-ridden nations which will highly impact Washington’s influence at a global level.
5. Canada turning ‘Authoritarian’:Justin Trudeau, Prime minister of Canada ordered reelection two years ahead of schedule amid his declining popularity over failure to handle a pandemic. Trudeau on record said that he admires the ‘china style of government’. His government passed bills in parliament{C-10 bill}that provides government censorship rights over Internet content. Dissenting media is fined & criminalized. Active tracking of citizens’ cellular and Bank accounts is carried on. The breaking of democratic institutions and ethics in the US neighborhood which regards itself as the ‘mother of democracy’ shows its plummeting influence.
6. Withdrawal from Afghanistan: Sudden withdrawal of the American army from Afghanistan and takeover by Taliban within hours of its exit seriously tarnished US image as a global power on the world stage. It further lost its role as a regional player in the central Asian region which created a ‘power vacuum and it is currently being filled by China and Russia. Moreover, the Taliban going back on its stand of giving educational rights to girls by banning girls from entering school shows the Doha peace agreement was just a ‘face-saving’ exit for the US.
7. Social Issues: Growing ‘Black lives matter’ protests and vaccination rate among black Americans significantly lower than white americans{according to Kaiser news health analysis}ex: In the US state of Indiana where 85.8% of the vaccinated population is white and only 4% is black shows already existing racial divide. furthermore, US citizens are deeply divided into values, policies, and plans which was confirmed by the ‘associated press’ survey in which 85% of registered voters described Americans as divided in their values.
It’s a matter of time to see the erosion of the US as a global power will continue or will Washington regain itself and counter the growing Chinese threat and Moscow expansionism.
