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Akhilesh Yadav’s SP will struggle to win 50 seats in the upcoming UP Elections 2022

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Anant Chetan
Anant Chetan
An aficionado blogger and an engineer by profession. By qualifications, a Masters in Embedded System Design.

I know what you must be thinking; this guy has gone crazy or is far away from the reality or maybe is an andh-bhakt. You might be thinking, hasn’t this guy seen any of the opinion polls? Literally everyone other than the people associated with BJP is claiming that it is a very tough, neck to neck election. In my defense, I would just say, please hear me out before jumping to conclusions and after reading the complete article decide for yourself.

In 2014, when BJP won a majority in Lok Sabha elections, a lot of intellectuals, liberals and media houses said it was a black swan moment, it was a fluke and would never happen again. India’s oldest political party had failed to win even 50 seats.

When in 2017 the state of Uttar Pradesh went for elections, the very same media houses, intellectuals and liberals were speaking on the very same lines. It would be a tough election, neck to neck. Have a look at the opinion polls:

Before the elections it was a Lynching in Dadri and this time it is a rape in Hatharas. Once the election results came out BJP had a clear cut majority with 312 seats and Akhilesh Yadav was restricted to 47 seats. Why? What happened?

Of course the intellectuals, liberals and media houses said it was vote bank polarization or simply, “it was a Modi Wave”.

Fast forward to 2019 General elections in India. This time, BJP at the center under the leadership of PM Modi had completed full five years and BJP in UP under the leadership of CM Yogi had completed half of its tenure. The media houses, intellectuals and liberals had the very same rant. This is going to be the end of the Fascism era or BJP at the very least would not get a majority. There would be a coalition government, BJP has already saturated its seats in its “Cow Belt”. Moreover, the same tactic of highlighting either a crime against a Muslim or against a Dalit was formed as a basis of entire opposition’s campaign. If you remember, it was Kuldeep Singh Sengar whose rape charge was being used as a basis for the entire campaign.

The opinion polls said the very same thing, a very tough election and hung assembly:

And what happened? Everyone knows that BJP increased its tally to 303 and Congress was restricted to 52. Why? What happened?

Fast forward to 2022. It still is the exact same story, exactly the same, no difference. Pick one case and run the entire political campaign. The result will also be exactly the same. BJP will improve its tally from 312 and Samajwadi Party would be hovering around 50.

How can I say that?

Before 2019, everyplace PM Modi and the then party president or current Home Minister Amit Shah would visit, they would say only one thing which these intellectuals, liberals and media houses tried their level best to down play. Where ever they would go, they will say that we have directly helped, connected to and changed lives of crores of people by various means. Various means for example, by providing LPG Gas connections to more than 10 crore families including 4 crore of them being free; by connecting more than 33 crore people to the banking systems via Jan Dhan accounts helping these people receive financial benefits directly in their accounts etc. etc. The list is quite long. You could have a look at my blog that I wrote at that time: Why this Kolaveri Di?

The results of 2019 General elections authenticated the veracity of their claims. Didn’t it? It does not need any validation any more. People voted for five years work.

And just so that you know, law and order prevailed in Unnao as well with Kuldeep Singh Sengar being sentenced to jail for the rest of his life in December of 2019. By the way, BJP also won the Bangarmau constituency which was Kuldeep Singh Senger’s constituency before he was expelled.

The point being, picking up one case and making a mountain out of it helps in building a fake narrative on media be it social media or mainstream media but people who have been witnessing a change in their lives always vote for the party or person who made that positive change happen. People in those constituency where the case actually happened and the culprit went to the jail voted for the party. Of course, media, intellectuals and liberals very conveniently forget to tell the complete story. What happened to the people who lynched Akhlaq? They were imprisoned, but media, intellectuals and liberals very conveniently forget to tell that. If you have been following my blogs, you would know I never forget to follow up on such cases. That’s how I keep myself abreast with the true picture of the state.

Coming back to 2022, Some things are being claimed by CM Yogi and other BJP leaders before the elections, which media houses, intellectuals and liberals are trying their best to downplay. For example there was a question answered in Loksabha on 05.08.21 about the number of households electrified in UP since 2017. Snapshot for the the states of UP and Punjab (I added Punjab just to give a comparison as to how nice Congress rule in Punjab was, I won’t be surprised if Congress gets single digit there too, but that’s another topic):

Out of these, 21,27,011 (twenty one lakh twenty seven thousand and eleven) households were BPL. The point here is that these 91 lakh households and if we assume four adults in a house at the very least these 2 crore new voters will be voting for BJP. They don’t care about what news channels are saying or what is the idea of India or what is the difference between Hindutva and Hinduism; they care only about if their living condition has improved or not. Just to give you a perspective as to how impactful 2 crore voters can be, in 2017, SP and BSP both had less then 2 crore votes, 1.8 crores and 1.9 crores respectively; BJP had 3.4 crores votes casted in its favor. This is just one Saubhagya Scheme. There are several other schemes in place too, which will give similar results. Add all of them and subtract the overlapping voters, you get the exact number of voter that will vote for BJP. Amit Shah before 2019 claimed BJP will get at least 20-25 crore votes on exactly the same basis and BJP did win 22 crore votes. Following picture would better show the electrification drive in UP:

Electricity and these new voters is the one of the big reasons why Akhilesh Yadav reacted the way he reacted once Election Commission announced new set of rules keeping Covid in mind like barring physical rallies/road shows and allowing virtual rallies along with a maximum of five people for door to door campaign among some other. He complained that BJP is a big party, has a well developed infrastructure and can conduct virtual rallies. Somebody should ask him a question, “what infrastructure is required? or what should people have, to be a part of a virtual rally?” Electricity connection, a smartphone and internet. That’s it. Right? Is there anything else required?

Also read: Remembering some of the iconic work by Akhilesh Yadav during his days

There are two majors problems for Akhilesh Yadav now. First, virtual rallies and digital campaigns would bring Modi’s and Yogi’s schemes to the forefront. No matter how hard the media, intellectuals and liberals try to mock the schemes, people would know these schemes are effective. People know that it was BJP’s government in UP that made it a reality for people even in the far fetched villages of UP to access electricity.

And second, Samajwadi Party is a family business, it does not have party workers that can go door to door and buy the voters by gifting them some goodies. Large rallies were easy way to do so. If these rules stay the same for the entire duration, 50 seats would also be a mammoth task.

Also read: Atrangi Bhaiya Ji

So, my dear readers, now you could judge if I am crazy or an andh-bhakt. You just have to add all the schemes and then add all the users that used facilities provided by the government in the last five years. You will come to the same conclusion that BJP will win more than 312 seats time. By the way, don’t forget free stuff like ration etc. during covid time. Why would the people whose lives changed towards betterment not vote for BJP and vote for SP? Even Yadavs will vote for BJP.

Don’t go by what the media says, if media would say that it is a one sided election, who would watch the news or the tv debates? They actually have a business to run.

Thanks for reading! Please do share it with your friends.

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Anant Chetan
Anant Chetan
An aficionado blogger and an engineer by profession. By qualifications, a Masters in Embedded System Design.
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