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Rise of hardliners in Middle East: Is this the sign of WWIII?

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During last 10 days there have been unprecedented changes in the politics of Middle East. From rise of Nefali Bennet, Israeli PM to the Iran’s new president-elect, Ebrahim Raisi. There is one and merely only major similarities between both of them “both are considered as extremists in their respective countries”.

Nefali Bennet the newly elected Israeli PM is seen as ultra right and ultra conservative politician in Israel. He had also served as a Defense Minister in Netanyahu government. His statements are also as much controversial as his working. While serving as defense minister he planned to merge full Gaza and West Bank into Israel, rejecting the Two State Policy which most of the liberal Israel politicians accepts, like Netanyahu.

Netanyahu was cast out after 12 years, which is a longest time period any Israeli had served as a PM. There was a uncertainty in the country as Israel had to undergo three consecutive elections for making central government. At the same time there were also high scale clashes between Israel and Hamas terrorists.

Although he is sitting on PM’s chair only for 2 years as his government is a coalition of 8 major and minor parties, including RAAM Party which is a Arab people’s party. After two year Lapid who is a moderate yet left leaning politician will serve as PM of Israel. There are also a vast possibility that this 8 party government will not able to complete it’s tenure as a major gap of ideologies and policies exists between these.

Iran’s newly elected President, Ebrahim Raisi. In Iran’s election, many political heavyweights were barred from running. Raisi is seen as close to 81-year-old supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate political power in Iran.

Sidewise there is a murmur in the international society that he’s not an elected but a selected one. US is strongly accusing Iran and raising its concerns as it feels that these elections are fixed. Although Raisi is a close ally of Supreme leader Khomeini, but in counter of these accusations Iran had said that these are totally false
But if we look to the reports this election have the least voting turnout in several years. Many voters chose to stay away after the field of some 600 hopefuls, including 40 women, had been winnowed down to seven candidates, all men, excluding an ex-president and a former parliament speaker. Iran officials gave Corona the reason for this less voting.

Fear in coming time
Now if we look closely, after these “newly” elected representatives in their resp countries there are quite high chances of clashes. As they both are new, they will try the best to secure their positions and the best way to do is for any politician is by doing aggressive working. Iran and Israel have been in a long-running “shadow war”, which has resulted in both countries taking part in tit-for-tat actions, but so far avoiding all-out conflict. Recently, however, the hostilities between the two have escalated again. The situation is complex, but one big source of tension is Iran’s nuclear activities.

After the coming of a strong ultraconservative leader in Iran, several terrorist groups in nearby countries will get strengthen. Previously also Iran is severely accused of training, financing, and providing weapons and safe havens for non-state militant actors, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and other Palestinian groups (Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC)). These groups are designated terrorist groups by a number of countries and international bodies; however, Iran considers such groups to be “national liberation movements” with a right to self-defense in the face of Israeli military occupation. Despite Iran is going through rough time for past few years. Internal protests, US sanctions, Corruption, unemployment, it continuously provides a huge chunk of funds to all these terrorist groups.

And as soon as Hamas will get little bit power it will start new round of attacks to reclaim Gaza and West Bank. If this somehow happens as there is high chances {as Hamas has also attack Israel with a burning Balloon soon after new govt was formed in Israel}. Bennet led government will be highly pressurized to counter these attacks will even great acceleration. As Netanyahu govt had a good record on hitting back terrorist with full power, this new govt cannot slow down this pace even this govt has a mix of several ideologies, from ultra-right to ultra-left. In his Twitter thread, Lior Haiat called Mr Raisi the “butcher of Tehran”, in reference to the mass execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988. Mr Raisi was one of four judges, who became known as the “death committee”, which allegedly sentenced about 5,000 men and women to death, Amnesty International says. In his tweets, however, Mr Haiat said more than 30,000 people were killed, which is a number also referenced by Iranian human rights groups.

Ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia can go more worse as they are even on their lowest point. Iran and Saudi Arabia have had no diplomatic relations following an attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran in January 2016 after Saudi Arabia executed Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, a Shia cleric. Terrorist activities in Saudi can also get a boom as a hardliner cleric ally is in power in Iran.

Iraq, Libya, Syria and other neighborhood countries will also not be able to save their back from the coming storm. Terrorist activities will get a new level rise all over this area.

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