Saturday, January 23, 2021
Home Reports The voter shall always have the last word-MSM & pollsters learn Their lessons

The voter shall always have the last word-MSM & pollsters learn Their lessons

Also Read

Narasimhan Vijayaraghavan
The author is practicing advocate in the Madras High Court

The @POTUS elections are absolutely fascinating to follow. It is beautifully poised even as @realdonaldtrump is ‘fighting against the odds’. Most polls, all across the US of A, national in particular, reveal that @joebiden is in the lead. It has been so ever since Joe Biden, 78 years old, became the official Democratic Party nominee, aspiring to become the oldest ever @POTUS to come to office, in the 244 year old country’s history.

Yet the Mainstream media and the psephologists are holding out a lot of ‘caveats unlike most times in the past’ as a Havard Professor is amused. They are not so sure to predict a winner this time, despite the wind in the sails of Joe. Why? Why are they hesitating unlike in the past? They always claim Psehpology is a science. They have ‘evolved tools which are sturdy’, they always claim. What has gone wrong with their ‘chiseled models beaten by the weather’?

It all harks back to their and our experience in the Nov, 2016 elections. At this point of time, in the Nov, 2016 elections Hillary Rodham Clinton was virtually declared a winner bar the shouting, as even Republicans had given up on Donald J Trump. Yes, it is true that Hillary won the popular vote by 3 million votes and it was Trump’s triumph by just 77,000 votes in three critical swing vote states, which made the difference. But, it has always been so in the US.

It needs to be noted, appreciated and understood that @POTUS elections, which take place once in 4 years, on the first Tuesday of November, 3rd it is, this year, and the Presidential inauguration takes place on Jan,20, the following year, are not of the ‘first past the post kind’. The popular vote may go to one candidate. But the winner could be another who gets to win the votes in the Electoral College, an ‘ indescribable animal which needs to be caught and consigned to the dustbin of history’ as a Yale law professor calls it.

When the 13 states joined in to morph the Confederation into a Union of States, thanks to the persuasive skills of the Founders of the US Constitution, the smaller States had their way ‘to assert their status in the union’, by insisting on a creature dubbed the Electoral College. Each State got allotted an agreed number of electors and the winner in the State took all the Electoral College votes- skewing the entire popular vote out of shape and size . In fact, only in 2020, we had the @SCOTUS ruling that the electors in the Electoral College cannot vote against the popular mandate in the State. Until then, it seemed as though they could, making a mockery of the precept and practice of popular votes in the hustings at both state and national horizons. Donald J Trump trumped Hillary in 3/5 swing states taking him over the hump, in the Electoral College, beyond the 270 magic number.

It was against the run of play. More than Hillary and Clinton and Democrats, it was the Main Stream Media and the ‘trained professional psephologists’ who were stunned into silence. They have been dissecting and analysing the ‘results’ since, and beyond suggesting that ‘the silent Trump voter killed them with their silence and misrepresentations’ there has been no worthwhile research results. Tomes have been penned and Seminar Circuit calendars full, but no credible answers. Yes, the MSM and psephologists shamefully conceded that they were trumped by the Trump voters as they failed to have their ears to the ground and ‘lost touch with the reality’.

It is this once in a life time experience that is holding back the MSM and Psephologists from pronouncing big on the polls and poll numbers in 2020. They are forced to admit that it is after all not a science or a precision tool. There is an inevitable and inexorable element of guesswork and estimation which makes mincemeat of their projections. And the voters who matter cannot be reduced to prognosis or projections, on samples and models, no matter the size, they handle with the huge margin of errors.

The Trump candidacy has been a revelation. He has had a 40% approval ratings since he began in June, 2015, throwing his hat into the ring. Despite the chaotic administration and his despicable handling of the Pandemic virus, defying and demeaning scientists and doctors, his base is not budging. They are stead fast. They know who he is. They knew him when they voted him in. As an elderly white female voter proudly exclaimed, “You took him literally. We took him seriously. He is our kind of politically incorrect rascal you elites hate”. And that base has remained unswerving in its devotion as if ‘Trump Presidency was a cult phenomenon’ as Tom Friedman remarked. Whatever, MSM and psephologists have learnt their lessons well.

No matter how smart they claim themselves to be or the tools and models they employ, ultimately, it is the little man with the little finger visiting the booth or mailing in his vote, who shall have the last word. It is not unique to US of A, but it is equally applicable to all democracies. MSM and psephologists would do well to be humbled by this experience, lest they are rudely humbled, again and again, by the little man or woman with the little vote.

( Narasimhan Vijayaraghavan- Author is practising advocate in the Madras High Court)

  Support Us  

OpIndia is not rich like the mainstream media. Even a small contribution by you will help us keep running. Consider making a voluntary payment.

Trending now

Narasimhan Vijayaraghavan
The author is practicing advocate in the Madras High Court

Latest News

The historic and hopeful January 20, 2021

Let January 20 serve as a stark reminder for the world at large that the democracy may have been halted temporarily but it has returned with greater hope and not fear.

खालसा पंथ की सिरजना के पीछे का ध्येय और गुरु गोबिंद सिंह जी

गुरु गोबिंद सिंह जी द्वारा स्थापित खालसा पंथ और उनकी बलिदानी परंपरा के महात्म्य को समझने के लिए हमें तत्कालीन धार्मिक-सामाजिक-राजनीतिक पृष्ठभूमि और परिस्थितियों पर विचार करना होगा।

कश्मीरी हिन्दूओ का नरसंहार और 31 साल का इंतजार

19 जनवरी 1990 का वो दिन कोई भी कश्मीरी हिन्दू कभी नहीं भूल सकता। 19 जनवरी 1990 का वो दिन न सिर्फ भारत के लिए बल्कि पूरे विश्व के लिए एक काला दिन है।

धार्मिक आतंकवाद

समाज का एक धड़ा है जो कि शकुनि और मंथरा से भी लाखों गुना कपटी और क्रूर है, जो धर्मनिपेक्षता, उदारवादिता और बुद्धिजीविता का नक़ली मुखौटा लगाये आपकी मानकिसकता पर क़ब्ज़ा कर आपके आत्मसम्मान और पहचान को अपंग बनाये बैठा है।

Tale of India’s greatest test victory in Australia

Finally the Indian flag hung around one of the unbreached fortresses at Gabba. The haughtiness which Australians displayed on the field was put down to dust by fearless Indians.

USA is now a constitutional relic & not a republic

All the founders of the US Constitution and even our own framers from the Constituent Assembly must be squirming in their graves, on what is playing out in the US.

Recently Popular

Daredevil of Indian Army: Para SF Major Mohit Sharma’s who became Iftikaar Bhatt to kill terrorists

Such brave souls of Bharat Mata who knows every minute of their life may become the last minute.

Taj Mahal Secrets (part-2)

Some unexplainedfacts of Taj Mahal

5 Cases where True Indology exposed Audrey Truschke

Her claims have been busted, but she continues to peddle her agenda

गुप्त काल को स्वर्ण युग क्यों कहा जाता है

एक सफल शासन की नींव समुद्रगप्त ने अपने शासनकाल में ही रख दी थी इसीलिए गुप्त सम्राटों का शासन अत्यधिक सफल रहा। साम्राज्य की दृढ़ता शांति और नागरिकों की उन्नति इसके प्रमाण थे।

Girija Tickoo murder: Kashmir’s forgotten tragedy

her dead body was found roadside in an extremely horrible condition, the post-mortem reported that she was brutally gang-raped, sodomized, horribly tortured and cut into two halves using a mechanical saw while she was still alive.