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The COVID-19 cases in India are about to surge and here’s what you need to know

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To bring a reference to the context, The Poliomyelitis of 1995 was a big challenge for the country of over a billion people as the Jihadis tried to intervene then and slow the process. Religion played a bit factor to extend the procedure. Despite the fact that India would have eradicated Polio as early as possible but these people played a trump card then, as an acting minority with the Jihadi mindset.

Eradicating Polio in India was a feat of dedication, commitment and simply doubling down on immunization activities. Given India’s vast population, tropical climate in many parts of the country, and other environmental challenges, it would be easy to imagine that if Polio couldn’t be stopped, India would be the place to fail and it was tried by these goons with all possible efforts carrying out all sorts of terror.

Simply put: it was a Big Challenge. After all, India constituted over 60% of all Global Polio cases as recently as 2009.

However, in 2014, India was officially declared polio-free, along with the rest of the South-East Asia Region. Thanks to the singular commitment of the Indian Government at all levels, partners of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, notably World Health Organization (WHO).

The same is the situation as of today when these bombs of COVID-19 have scattered across the country, amidst the Pandemic to put the country in danger. Now even if more than half of the coronavirus carrying human are quarantined, they have already done their job.

The people who have went underground are the biggest threat to the Indian Community, to the 130 Crores, no matter who you are.

Imagine if we lift the Lockdown tomorrow, these people will come out on streets and infect others unless caught, tested, treated and punished.

Well, we can say that they have already activated the Community Transmission or Stage 3 in the country and the numbers are set to surge drastically in the next 15 days.

On the same note, I had to revise my recent study and hence republish my paper. Despite multiple efforts carried out by the Indian government, The Indian Medical Association, All Indian Institute of Medical Sciences, Indian Police and more to contain the disease in the country; they are slightly on the losing side after the immature actions by certain parts of the society. India had long been considered one of the most difficult geographical locations to eliminate any disease.

The following numbers have drastic change due to unexpected beginning to the Community Transmission in India.

To put a small reference, some of the Nizamuddin Markaz attendees recently traveled through 5 different trains as reported. On average there are over 1000 travelers in a passenger/express trains, obviously the possibility of everyone traveling in the same train getting infected by COVID-19 is relatively low but still possible.

Assuming that even if 10 people faced the transmission consider the attendees to be asymptomatic at the time of travel, these 10 infects would further affect hundreds depending on their further travel or locality transmissions.

Hence by definition, Stage 3 or Community Transmission has started in different states of the country. An illness spread which has surged in such a way that the source of its infection is not known. One can catch an infection from other person — and from people who were asymptomatic prior to Lockdown Days. Though the number will certainly reduce if the Lockdown is extended or strict restrictions are followed in the regions with coronavirus clusters and hotspots.

The new study suggest that by April 15 (00:00 IST): COVID-19

Bertalanffy Model: 11447 cases
Gompertz Model: 16575 cases

There is a big deviation compared to the older study (Stage 2) where we expected to see cases between 5215-6248 by the end of Lockdown. Even if we are set to see an exponential increase in the number of cases in the next 15 days, let’s stay strong mentally, respect the public officials and we remain in it together.

Stay Safe, Flatten the Curve.

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