Dismemberment of Pakistan: Implications for India
PM Imran Khan’s speech at UN general assembly on 27 Sep 19 has disturbed the hornets’ nest amongst people all over the world. At the UN general assembly, he vocalised a rant on Kashmir to express his undying love for six million Kashmiris. His justification of terrorism, divisive mind-set, religious radicalisation and racial hatred is a reflection of the medieval ideology that does not accommodate pluralistic, peace loving and progressive pragmatism. He even went on to threaten the world with nuclear holocaust. Brinkmanship that the Pakistan PM displayed on the podium of UN general assembly, reflects his utter disdain for the UN charter. However, in India’s ‘Right to Reply’ (a rare event in such a forum), India chose their first secretary Minstry of External Affairs (a junior officer in the Indian foreign service) Ms Vidhisha Moitra, to rebut the ill-timed tirade of Pakistan PM. Ms Vidhisha Moitra clearly brought out the obsession of Pakistan with Kashmir and convinced the world that Pakistan indeed is a sophisticated state sponsored terror factory. She even pronounced to hold Pakistan PM to his promise of verification by UN regarding presence of religious radicalised terror manufacturing units on the soil of Pakistan. Few pointed questions were asked to be answered as a precursor to this UN led verification of presence of terror factories in Pakistan.
Question now arises as to why the Pakistan PM is deeply concerned about six million inhabitants in Kashmir? Especially in the light of his own state apparatus is persecuting, marginalising and tyrannising millions of Pakistanis (be it from any religion or minorities) in Sindh, Baluchistan, K P Province and Gilgit-Baltistan. As Husain Haqqani at the Aspen Institute on 28 Jun 2013 put it, “it is the psychological obsession with India and Kashmir which Pakistani society suffers from”. Haqqani termed it as a fear psychosis which does not allow Pakistan to come to terms with its own history, geography and present international standing, thus preventing a pragmatic utilitarian progressive approach for itself.
It could also be the result of events at partition full of hatred for each other which have been perpetrated down to the generations. Now they are used as a perfect recipe to generate votes during elections and the entire nation feeds on fictitious anti-India propaganda as the only unifying bond. Pakistan, instead of sending its children to modern schools, chose to promote radicalising MADRASSAS for them. Pakistan, instead of using its Nuclear Posture to enter in productive alliances with other nations, chose to look for terror outfits to deploy against India and other neighbours courtesy the ‘OP Topac’ (bleeding India with thousand cuts) embarked on by then President Zia-ul-Haq. This has pushed Pakistan into utter chaos and she is on the brink of dismemberment i.e Sindh, Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunwa or Pakhatunistan apart from Pakistani Punjab.
Pakistan finds itself in this mess due to perpetual obsession with Kashmir of which it has no locus standii in the international arena. Its compulsive and obsessive disorder to compete with India at all possible costs has financially bled Pakistan. Pakistan has not made any investments in human Index. Instead all regimes, particularly military regimes, led with Punjabi domination, have resorted to crushing the growth of other provinces of Pakistan. At this juncture, India has to analyse as to what is good for India i.e. stable Pakistan or dismembered Pakistan (four different countries)?
This debate may have views and counter views but more pertinent for India, at this juncture, is if dismemberment takes place, what should be the response to a humongous refugee influx from Pakistan into India and other allied issues? What should be the India’s foreign policy objectives Vis-a Vis four different countries which are likely to be headed by radical Islamist jihadi leadership? How will peace prospects in the region be affected? What should be Indian policy of accommodating refugees as it severely influences the economic, social and global criterion as it happened in 1971, when the majority Bengalis in East Pakistanis were subjected to genocide by Pakistan establishment in East Pakistan leading to its dismemberment?
In event of such a probability, the first reaction should be immediately to take control of all nuclear and missile sites in Pakistan. They should be sealed, protected and all measures should be taken to ensure that they don’t fall in the hands of ‘Jihadis Tanzeeins’ like AL Qauda, LeT, JuD and other radicalised elements. Thereafter, all jihadi leaders and drug warlords of the likes of Hafiz Sayed, Lakhvi, Masood Azar and Dawood Abraham should be arrested to prevent them from taking over the leadership of the dismembered states. At a later stage, the above mentioned outfits along with others in Govt, who are responsible for war crimes and genocides, should be presented before International Court of Justice or such tribunals for trials as was done when Yugoslavia broke up into eight different states. At the same time, the plans to integrate Gilgit – Ballistan and POJK with India should also be in place.
Efforts should be made immediately, to promote the Govts in exile headed by the acceptable popular leaders from each region. It could be Bugati led Govt in exile for Balauchistan, Altaf Hussain led Govt is exile for Sindh and similarly some prominent leader from Khyber Pakhtunwa can be promoted. There should also be security plan for these new regimes to be able to function supported by a good economic package to make them viable during initial phase. All this can be done only, if India has track II secret pacts with USA, Saudi Arabia, Iran and China etc. These countries must provide an assurance or blessing for this plan to succeed, given that in the present international scenario, no new countries are likely to get recognition in ‘Normal Course’. In the recent past, there is only one case of an African state i.e. South Sudan being recognized as an independent nation. Even that has run into many kinds of retrogations.
Hence, the clear understanding with economically powerful nations like USA and religion leaders like Saudi Arabia is a must. There needs to be plan for real development in Jammu and Kashmir UT as well. This is to prevent any kind of opportunistic adventurism in form of military manoeuvre in Indian territory by Pakistani state.
We can now take on possible Pakistani argument that though there are problems in different regions in Pakistan, yet they haven’t reached the alarming proportions akin to some of the African on Middle East countries where civil war has erupted and the State has virtually no control over events. In some cases, UN forces have been deployed for peace enforcement as well. In this regard, it is pertinent to foresee the events on 13 Oct 2019 when FATF meeting took place. It is quite likely that Pakistan be downgraded to black list which will halt all kinds of financial aids from IMF and other monetary institutions. This may lead to financial breakdown in Pakistan leading to unrest and possible dismemberment.
FATF of Asia Pacific Group has already black listed Pakistan as it has failed to fulfil almost 20 conditions in FATF charter. Presently, the chairmanship of FATF is with China, and given the strategic partnerships of the Chinese with Pakistan, will try their level best to prevent this catastrophe for Pakistan. But it remains to be seen if other members (barring Turkey) listen to China.. Two extensions have already been granted to Pakistan on Chinese recommendations. Instead of complying with the FATF stipulations, Pak PM Imran Khan Niazi espoused to promote state sponsorship terror plot rhetoric during his week-long visit to USA during his meetings with foreign bodies especially at Council on Foreign Relations and in UN General Assembly.
Whether dismemberment happens or not, one thing is clear, India has to be prepared for this eventuality no matter what, else it meets same fate as in 1971 on the borders with East Pakistan. Besides, India has to take all possible precautions and pre-emptive proactive measures, be it strategic, operational or tactical, both internally as well as at international level to prevent any major terror incident which Pakistan may like to embark on against India. This may lead to escalation due to Indian response which would be nothing short of Balakote incident during the month of Feb this year.
In any case, even in case of an escalation initially with conventional forces, India will have to gun for control of nuclear and missile sites in Pakistan so that question of nuclear escalation does not arise. It is quite likely that India has already negotiated with USA and the plans are in place to counter this contingency.