Here is why 2019 might not be 2004
The defeat of BJP in 2004 Lok Sabha Election, was not just the defeat of Bharatiya Janata Party, or of Swa. Atal Bihari Vajpayee but it was a golden moment for Congress to spread the false narrative for Muslim appeasement clad with “Secularism”. Congress along with it’s darbari journalists caught that free-hit moment and used it very well to serve their vested interests.
Editorial in most of the newspapers in the aftermath of 2004 Election, written by so called activist running NGOs, covered that the defeat of BJP was due to the “Godhra Riots of 2002”. Even the propagation of that agenda was laid down highlighting the handpicked events and completely neglecting the incident of Sabarmati Express which was burnt by a “Mob” that killed more than 60 innocent ‘Karsevaks’. They all were burnt alive in a train. That was the ‘Gas Chamber moment’ for Hindus. (while some so called “investigative journalists” used this term for Assam NRC). Her Grace, Sonia Gandhi, called the then chief minister of Gujarat as “maut ka saudagar” till 2014 even thought he was found “NOT GUILTY” and given a clean chit by SIT formed during the Congress regime of 10 years.
It was the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) system which brought BJP to power and it was the same which took away the govt. from the BJP. Looking at the post election Statistical data released officially by the Election Commission of India (ECI), BJP in 1999, contested on 339 seats and won 182 seats, while Congress contested on 453 seats but won only 114 seats. It seems like more people were in favour of BJP, Right? NO! Looking further at chart given below you will notice that BJP earned only 8.6 crore votes in that election while congress was successful in getting 10.3 votes which was way higher than what BJP earned. This is possible as on some seats bjp won with low margins while congress on some seat won with high margins.
(The above photograph is taken from guruprasad.net who have directly taken a crop of post election statistical report pdf of 1999 and 2004 General Election which had been taken off from ECI website.)
Coming to 2004 Lok Sabha Election, BJP contested on 364 seat which was more than that in previous election and Congress contested on 417 seats which was less than that in 1999 election. Both the major rivals were able to gain almost similar number of votes as of that in 13th Lok sabha elections with BJP getting marginally less votes than it gained before and congress getting marginally more votes than previous election. Here comes the FPTP system with this similar number of votes, BJP lost its seats which were won previously with little margin and reached to just 138 while congress somehow managed to get 145 seats. Difference of just 7 seats!
Both the Govt. formed in 1999 and in 2004 were a based on coalition support. Politics of coalition is always based the parties’ self interest. Left came all the way in support of congress and some old allies left NDA. So congress formed the Government with a Punjabi Prime Minister imported through Assam Rajya sabha seat who was the idol of servility towards the “First Family” of Congress. BJP lost the politics of coalitions.
On enlarged view of the voter’s perception, 2002 riots were not one of the main reasons influencing Elections of 2004. If it were to be the reason, BJP might have benefited as it was benefited them in Gujarat. In 1998 Gujarat assembly had 117 seats of BJP and Modi became the Chief Minister of Gujarat just Five months before the riots. Elections were held soon after the riots took place and BJP under the campaign of Narendra Modi won 127 seat this time. People heavily voted against the fake narrative of 2002 riots and in favour of the way in which Narendra Modi had managed the recovery from 2001 lethal earthquake and the way he suppressed the riots despite of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan’s Congress govt. refused to provide police support to control the riots. (If they would have sent the police force then they would have missed the opportunity of blaming Modi).
So the data shows that the whole blame game of riots which was thrown on Narendra Modi was well planned hoax of congress which they used as per their demand of election which in today’s India does not hold merit.
The difference between in 2019 and 2004 is that:
- Votes have changed of large scale.
- Leadership of congress is worse than parties is Afghan elections.
- Economic indicators are in favour of govt. unlike slow growth after the second half on 2002.
- It is humours that even for coalition partners of Anti-BJP front to imagine His Excellency Rahul Gandhi as their Prime Ministerial face.
- As per World Poverty Clock 44 people are lifted out of poverty every minute in India which were never a traditional BJP voters. (Due to freebies of Congress in the name of upliftment).
- Direct benefit transfer, Jan Dhan-Aadhaar-Mobile trinity, Mudra Loans, Digital India, Ujjwala Yojana, PM awas Yojana, 100% electrification, online grievance redressal and a lot of such initiative of Govt. have improved the living standards of people.
- Business environment in much stable and sustainable compared to what was that in between 1999 to 2004, Thanks to operation Black money, GST, Insolvency and Bankruptcy code, etc.
- Economy in getting more and more formal since 2014.
Most importantly BJP in 2014 has a majority of their own and more than 36% of vote share compare to about 23.7% and 22.1% of votes in 1999 and 2004 respectively. Whereas congress have such a less number of seats that they are even void of having a leader of Opposition. Social media have deeply penetrated to most corners of the country making voters more aware about what is difference between Truth and “Post Truth”. Today people are able to catch the difference between Secularism and appeasement, Women empowerment and Fake feminism, Poverty alleviation and Freebies vote bank, etc. Self made quotes of M. K. Gandhi with some random dates by “some historians” are not helping in indoctrinating people.
India has become more mature democracy with having highest number of young voter (Young means 18 to 30 and not 48) in the world and youth know that speeches like “pichhattis” and “sade teen lakh pachas hajar” are good for humour but not suitable for someone seating UN security council. Voters have become literate enough to know that “Starch molecules of potato can not be converted to atoms of Gold by any mean”.
All the best to all the voters of 2019. You know your duties towards the nation.
Mechanical Engineer, Student for Masters in Economics. Checkout my Twitter profile.