Sunday, June 23, 2024
HomePoliticsNarendra Modi will form the government in 2019 irrespective of the results, here's how

Narendra Modi will form the government in 2019 irrespective of the results, here’s how

Also Read

2019 general elections are just an year or so away and the ruthless political arithmetic for seats has already begun. West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee seems pumped up to form and lead a united opposition front which she says could potentially end the dominion of Modi and Shah. By-poll losses, troubles with NDA allies and rising caste dynamics have caused even the most optimistic BJP supporters to worry about the party not being able to secure a simple majority on its own in next year’s elections. However, does falling short of 272 mean the end of the Modi government or can the Modi-Shah duo still find a way to sneak into South Block? Here are the possible scenarios and how things may play out:

BJP gets 250 seats: This is considered to be one of the most likely scenarios to play out in 2019 where BJP loses its simple majority yet is within easy reach of the mark. It would probably require the support of 1 or 2 of its allies. Even if the Shiv Sena and the now departed TDP do not offer support, the BJP may be able to rely on JD (U) (which has already changed its allegiance twice in last 4 years and is unlikely to switch again), SAD, LJP or even a neutral regional party such as the AIADMK, TRS or YSR Congress. All that the BJP may lose in such a scenario is one or two key cabinet positions

BJP gets 220-230 seats: Although this seems like a challenging scenario, we have to keep in mind that BJP has one of the greatest political strategists this country has seen in a long time – Amit Shah. In this scenario, BJP’s lacklustre performance might not have rubbed much on the NDA allies as it is very likely that this scenario emerges due to low voting percentage / better alliance strategies of the regional parties. Shah, who is the master of forming governments in such scenarios, would hold all the aces in his hands including but not limited to plum positions, monetary rewards or even arm twisting through threat of CBI cases. Narendra Modi would still be able to form the government, however his ability to go ahead with demonetization like unilateral moves may be reduced

BJP gets 200 seats: This is where things start becoming really tricky. BJP’s poor performance would have probably affected its allies as well since this would appear to be a vote against the government. Even though the NDA may be able to form a government with the support of a few neutral parties, Narendra Modi would find it hard to convince the NDA allies to consider him as the Prime Minister. This is where he would have to use the loyalty of his 2 main assets- President of India and President of BJP. Since BJP would still be the single largest party, President Kovind would still be within his rights to invite Narendra Modi to form the government. Once Modi takes charge again, he would have 10-15 days to gather support of around 70 MPs. In this scenario that the structure of NDA could change significantly. The allies would probably continue to oppose Modi as the PM and would seek support from other BJP leaders to choose a consensus candidate. It is here where Amit Shah’s whip would be useful to ensure that BJP votes for Narendra Modi as the leader of the house and prevent a mutiny from within. The other parties which would most probably come to the rescue here are those which have often seemed to be on the edge (perhaps due to fear of CBI) – AIADMK, NCP, BSP, TRS and the likes. This would be the new NDA.

BJP gets < 200 seats: A result where BJP would fall short by around 90-100 seats would probably only happen if another party, mostly Congress, would win around 150 seats or so and putting the UPA coalition firmly above the BJP. This seems like a really far-fetched scenario as of now but nevertheless it is possible and the BJP would face a daunting task to clinch on to power here. Just like the previous scenario, BJP would need a white knight to help them and this time it would be CJI Dipak Misra’s successor. It is no coincidence that in January 2018, 4 SC judges openly criticized the CJI in a press conference in an unprecedented move in the Indian Judiciary. These 4 (likely loyalists of the Congress establishment) have probably noticed that CJI Dipak Misra is no stooge of the ‘family’ and has shown intent in going ahead with decisions which may be seen as against their interests. The CJI is bound to retire in October 2018, however he will have the right to name his successor. The 4 judges probably know that Ranjan Gogoi (who is next in line to be CJI) may be overlooked to select a CJI whose ideology would be similar to that of Chief Justice Misra. This CJI would then hold the key in this scenario because if President Kovind decides to invite Modi to form the government, it is most likely to be challenged in the Supreme Court and since there is really no specific instruction in the constitution for such a situation, the decision would be completely dependent on CJI’s interpretation and rationale which would probably be in favour of the BJP. And once Modi takes over, Amit Shah knows all too well how to arm twist his opponents into submission.

Make no mistake, Narendra Modi is forming the government in 2019 regardless of the result. However, a simple majority would still be the best and hence it would be the duty of the supporters to come out in record numbers to vote for a strong and stable Modi government – 2.0

  Support Us  

OpIndia is not rich like the mainstream media. Even a small contribution by you will help us keep running. Consider making a voluntary payment.

Trending now

- Advertisement -

Latest News

Recently Popular