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Play with numbers in Aiyar way

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Mani Shankar Aiyar has lately developed a great taste in numbers.  In his recent article what Sonia Gandhi did in 2004, Rahul must do now, He highlighted that BJP and specifically Modi does not represent the majority of the population.

To counter his point, he put forward a few numbers- 69 percent of electorate in 2014 general election and later in 2017, around 58 percent during UP election did not vote (read fall) for Modi or BJP.

Analyzing the numbers is always a fun.

Mr Aiyar thinks, electorate only choose Government. Wrong. Electorate also choose Opposition. Government and Opposition, both are integral part of a democracy. In the same election, electorate decide Government along with Opposition. There is no separate election for Opposition. Some happen to choose Government and some Opposition.

There are dozens of political parties in India. In my opinion, during election, electorate divide parties into two halves.

  • First half consist of party or parties who will represent the people in the Government.
  • Second half are the parties who will represent the people in Opposition.

If we talk about 2014 general election, around 31 percent electorate decided who MUST go in the Government. Directly, 31 percent wanted NDA to be in Government. Indirectly, they also suggested that all parties other than NDA may go to Opposition (provided they win at least one seat). Which is something Mr. Aiyar also agrees with.

What he could not realize is that the rest 69 percent electorate decided, who MUST go in Opposition. Those 69 percent had directly said, UPA and other parties are well fit in the Opposition. Which translates that they did not want NDA to be in Opposition. Indirectly, they were suggesting, NDA have no choice but should form Government.

To summarize, directly or indirectly, 100% electorate decided who should go in Government and who should go in Opposition.

Then, where is the confusion Mr. Aiyar? Modi or BJP enjoys 100 percentage electorate mandate. Whether it is directly or indirectly, does it matter?

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