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Xi Jingping’s “little-big” ambition

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With less than ’24 hours’ remaining for the ‘Lieutenant General’ Level Talks to take place between India and China, on the month long Eastern Ladakh border conflict. Tensions and pressure are mounting up on both sides. While the Chinese have resorted to their air force, and have increased the air activity on the Chinese side of the Sino-Indian LAC border with frequent sorties by Chinese fighter jets over Aksai Chin, they have not breached the 10 Kms ‘No Fly’ zone. The Chinese would be realizing that they are at a disadvantage, with their Indian adversary, as the Chinese air bases are located at a higher altitude, which restricts them to take off with a full-load capacity (Weapons & Fuel)

Meanwhile, the Indian air Force is on full alert, and is monitoring the situation closely. The Indian Air Force has a distinct advantage over the Chinese in air, with a host of air bases at Srinagar and Chandigarh that can deploy fighters at a moment’s notice with full-load (Weapons & Fuel), the Indian Air force is more than capable of negating any Chinese threat and incursion.

Further, the Indian forces have aptly responded by moving its troops to reinforced key positions along the LAC, not only in Ladakh, but right through Uttarakhand, Sikkim, and up to Arunachal Pradesh. As some reports of Chinese troop built up has come through. The forces have also deployed UAV, and increased the frequency of border patrol all along the 3,488 Kms LAC.

The Indian delegation will be led by Lieutenant General Harinder Singh, the ‘General Officer Commanding’ of the Leh based ‘14 Corps’, while the Chinese side will be headed by the ‘Tibet Military District Commander’. The talks will take place at the ‘Border Personnel Meeting Point’ at Maldo.

However, as a surprising move China has appointed Lieutenant General Xu Qiling, as its new Commanding Office, hours ahead of the scheduled talks. The command was previously headed by Lieutenant General Xu Yong. Before this command, General Qiling was attached to the ‘Eastern Theatre Command’, which is one of the five Theatre Commands of the People’s Liberation Army. China, currently is facing a severe backlash over its role in the alleged development and disbursement of COVID-19 on a global scale.

While China nurtures its ambitions to established its position as the global power, and to counter the status of USA; its mode and method adopted to realize its ambition have been one of deception and deceit.

Propelling itself as an economic powerhouse, a journey that commenced in the late ‘70s, China’s stature consistently grew over the coming decades. With the rise of its global stature, China’s appetite for power and dominance also magnified several folds, bringing its political establishment to the brink of becoming a rogue regime.

China’s economy is built on its outwards focus on international markets. With almost 20% of its GDP coming from exports, China cannot afford to lose its grip on global markets. With the pending and looming investigations of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the accrued damages claimed by 100 countries from China, the Chinese are in a desperate situation and are aggressively trying to find means to diffuse these circumstances.

For the past 3,000 years, as long as the Chinese civilization has existed; China has always played its cards with deceit and deceptions. History is a witness to the sinusoidal curve of the power transfer that took place in China over these centuries.

China, by fundamental nature has been an ‘expansionist’ and an ‘invader’, when matters of territory are concern. Even in today’s time, China has questionable border disputes with 13 out of 14 countries with which it shares its borders. Even with countries like Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and Taiwan, where China does not share common borders, it has disputes over maritime rights. Such is China, in its nature and thinking. The stand off at Pangong in Western Ladakh, is a link is this ‘thought out’ strategy.

With all eyes on China, China is attempting to create enough chaos, confusion and distraction; that the global community will overlook its role as the mastermind in the COVID-19 pandemic disaster. Unlike the previous UPA led regimes, in India, where China had a free run against India; China is well aware that the Indian Armed Forces will not back down, especially under the present NDA Government; and that the present establishment has both the strength and political will to take on China.   

Yet China is continuing with its squeamish in Ladakh, because this time its primary objective is not to simply acquire territory, but is to test the international response and dynamics, specially the American response, through which it will fine tune its near future tactical maneuvers. The high-level Lieutenant General’ meeting to take place tomorrow will not yield much of results. With certainty, the Indian side will demand the withdrawal of the Chinese forces to their previous positions of prior to the standoff.

The Chinese are sure to reject this, and will try to negotiate a partial withdrawal. However, unlike the UPA regime, this time the Indian side will insist on a ‘Complete Withdrawal’, and the meeting will end with a stalemate. Both sides will continue to eyeball each other for some weeks to come. China is a shrewd player; it also realizes that it cannot hold this position for too much of a prolonged time. It knows that India has ramped up its infrastructure and can deploy troops, unlike in 1962, to the LAC quite rapidly.

Secondly, China knows, although does not acknowledge that it is within 2 Kms of Indian territory, which leaves an option for the Indian forces to disrupt the Chinese ‘Supply Line & Logistic Support’, and cripple them. Hence their current situation is not sustainable, until a formal war is declared. Which is highly unlikely under the present or even the near future global scenario. In the context of China, it is important to take note of some facts that are not very openly discussed and debated.

The first fact deals with the position of Xi Jingping, himself. While, before COVID-19, Xi Jingping, commanded a strong support, and had a decisive image in China; post COVID-19, his personal credibility and competency is under question, even within China (although with the nature of the regime, public opinions are not officially allowed to leave China).

The second fact pertains to the unity of China itself. China, historically is not one country, but a group of states that had their own respective rulers. Periodically, these states over time would be forced into one nation, under one dynasty, and then once again disintegrate into separate states. This process has been cyclic over the past 3,000 years of Chinese history.

The communist regime of China, can be looked upon as a modern form of a ‘State Led Dynasty’, that held the Chinese states together for almost a century.

But, in recent times, the internal dynamics of different Chinese states is playing up, specially owing to the fact that apart from the iron clad rule of the communist party, that held the states together; it was also through the propaganda of China becoming a world leader and powerhouse that fueled the Chinese citizen’s minds, and kept them together as one nation.

This perception is now not only being broken, but questioned by the Chinese; both, by the political rivals of Xi Jingping, and also by the Chinese citizens.

Xi Jingping, has grown weaker, his iron grip on China itself is weakening. Xi Jingping will pull back his troops from Ladakh, back to their prior original position, but not as a result of this talk between the military comanders; but as a result of talks directly between Beijing and New Delhi; wherein Xi Jingping, will try to portray himself as a global statesman, showing concerns about regional stability, and claiming that in the interest of ‘Global Stability and Peace’, he has asked his troops to fall back. Xi Jingping and China will continue to posture hard, and try to bluff their way through, but the world is not foolish, it recognizes the truth.

This is a war thrust upon the world by Xi Jingping, and it is not for China’s survival, but more so for Xi Jingping’s own survival.

Xi Jingping’s lust to rival the power enjoyer by POTUS, has made him blind, and has carved the road not only for his own destruction but also the destruction of China in the years to come.     

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