Why do we value psephology so much?
If the pollsters’ calculations return to the Modi Tsunami, what sense does it make to panic about keeping him at the victory mark? They are predicting whole-heartedly what they want to foretell. He is glorious, victorious and champion of the political field. The psephologists are supposed to be behaving ably like those stock market analysts who vainly attempt to tread in one direction for some obvious reasons.
They are also reacting like the weather experts who pass time in studying the movement of the clouds for predicting the daily forecast and it was not always correct closely. In the same way, the science of psephology lacks the accuracy for it seemed to be not based on theories. It is entirely based on guesses, presumptions, and calculations. There came a Scottish classicist & philosopher William Francis Ross ‘Frank’ Hardie who coined the term psephology in 1948 following his friend R B Macullum’s inquiry about the word to describe the study of elections.
This very term was first used in the year 1952 though its origin was searched into the Greek word psephos meaning pebble. Since the Greeks used to bring in use pebbles as ballots, this branch of political science becomes connected with the methodical study of elections. In the present perspective, the term looked more like the systemic calculations done in the stock exchange or weather forecast. Every expert thinks the prophecy of the exit polls can be right but it remains devoid of accurateness. It changes the available statistical data within the construction of the mathematical angle.
In the year 2014, the BJP with a tally of 282 seats had created history by acquiring an absolute majority. A parallel goal has been predicted by the most pollsters this time and one television news channel even said there was a gust of Modi tsunami at this national election too. Prediction of better performance by Modi Sarkar looms large on the political horizon despite the fact that Narendra Modi maintains silence and implores the supernatural powers into the icy cavern situated at the wuthering heights.
Undeniably this over seventy-year-old terminology is more an approach to business for it benefits the media rather than causing material benefits to the common people. Why should we not wait till May 23 for clear results?