Can BJP save its ‘Savings’ of the decades?
What is the concept of Savings? Savings act as security while venturing into an unfamiliar terrain. When savings built over the years is eroded, there exists no solid support for future unfamiliar expeditions.
Upper castes have always been the back bone of the BJP. Such support base is developed only when the voter believes that his ideology is in sync with that of the vote seeker, which in turn is developed with relentless efforts over years. BJP recently restored to its original effect an amendment made by the Supreme Court in SC/ST Act. It rules out any provision for anticipatory bail for a person accused of atrocities against SC/STs, notwithstanding any court order. It provides that no preliminary inquiry will be required for registering a criminal case and an arrest under this law would not be subject to any approval. The restoration was aimed at changing the BJP’s perceptional position in the Dalit graph from the negative axis to the positive axis, skipping the central equilibrium.
This has the capability to erode the savings of the BJP manifesting itself in the form of its core vote base built over the years.
This restoration has irked the core vote base of the BJP. Strong social and political voices of opposition are emanating from all the corners. These voices are significant as they have the capability to determine the electoral prospects of any party and especially the BJP in the Hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. These three states in turn play a crucial role in the formation of any government at the centre. The 2014 General Elections witnessed an exceptional performance by the BJP in these three states and any dent to its core vote base in the Hindi heart land can significantly impair its electoral prospects. A significant manifestation of the restoration decision is the resolution of Samanya Pichda Evam Alpsankyak Varg Adhikari Karmchari Sanstha (SAPAKS) to contest the upcoming Madhya Pradesh assembly elections and 2019 General Elections. SAPAKS is vehemently opposing the decision of restoring the amendment to SC/ST act to its original effect and is raising the question of benefits of reservation as a policy in the larger context.
If the disenchanted core vote base of the BJP start identifying their grievances with the agenda of SAPAKS, it can easily erode a considerable amount of BJP’s core votes. Although a good number of parties like the LJP led by Mr. Ram Vilas Paswan & the RPI (A) led by Mr.Ramdas Athawale representing Dalit interests are with the BJP, it should not try to hedge its potential loss in its core vote bank with the votes brought in by these parties. This is simply because Savings should grow and not shrink. Savings are assets to be used in times of contingent distress and savings themselves should not be the cause of distress. Another important aspect to remember is that the ruling clan is facing natural anti incumbency and LJP and RPI (A) being part of the ruling coalition is no exception to it. Hence, any shift of Dalit votes to parties representing their interests in the opposite camp will have disastrous effects as these votes are mass mobilized.
This represents the uncertainty and pitfalls present in future expeditions which BJP is expected to undertake.
In order to optimize the benefits of Savings, it needs to be constantly monitored. Activities on a war footing should be undertaken to curb negative developments. BJP should act as early as possible against the growing dissent in its treasury.
23 Years Old.
B Com from Mumbai University.
Pursuing MA Political Science from Mumbai University.