Well, no political correctness. It’s not Corona virus, its Chinese virus. You may call it “Wuhan virus”. I don’t mind calling this virus as “Chinese virus”, since its origin was in China. It’s a fact. I support Trump for this fact. You may call me racist and I am OK with that. If disease like Ross river Fever, Ebola, Zika, Japanese encephalitis, Spanish flu are named and known based on their origin, then why not corona?
So, it started from China. Let us first analyze how China misinformed whole world during 3 to 4 months.
- First case was registered in Nov,2019 in Wuhan (origin of Virus). As we know, this place is also popular for Wet market. Chinese are known for their bizarre food habits.
- During Dec-2019, many people in Wuhan were identified with this disease. The data of tests were sent to many Chinese genomics companies. During this time, it was concluded that, something big was happening in Wuhan and it was due to a novel virus. You may refer this link. https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-29/in-depth-how-early-signs-of-a-sars-like-virus-were-spotted-spread-and-throttled-101521745.html
- During same month Chinese doctor Dr. Li Wenliang informed that, it was a serious disease and some patients were showing signs of a new SARS like illness in early December. Unfortunately, China is not a democratic country and Communist government in China arrested him for spreading rumors
- Jan-2020. China continued arresting people who were having doubts about outbreak. Many people were arrested for publishing and sharing rumors online about the pneumonia-like illness.
- Jan-2020. The Health Commission in Wuhan ordered all genomics companies to stop their tests and destroy the materials they received (which would have proved that data about the virus were already available from late December). During this time, wet market in Wuhan was also closed. Daily updates about this disease were stopped.
- Jan-3rd week-2020. It was during this time, WHO accepted that, virus was spreading through human-to-human transmission. Many journalists who were trying to cover outbreak were confiscated. China still did not inform world properly and kept suppressing information and only accepted that, low risk of human-to-human transmission of the virus had been detected. Despite the virus outbreak, Wuhan kept hosting big festival for many families (potluck banquet) to celebrate Chinese new year. This was attended by many people. This was turning point and outbreak was out of control after this event. Please note that, from 10th January to 18th February, for almost 40 days, China celebrates Lunar new year. It is largest annual human migration in the world. Every year, around 3 billion trips are made. So, you can imagine, how the virus was spread.
- Jan-4th Week-2020. Wuhan mayor said that, he has not released all information and he was following Beijing rules. Lock down in Wuhan was declared. However, it was too late as almost 5 million people have left the city without testing. World was going to pay big price of this blunder; however world was still not aware.
- Feb-1st week. Dr. Li Wenliang died in first week of February. Rules for internet freedom made stringent.
- Feb-2nd week-2020. China expelled many journalists who were reporting about outbreak.
- Feb-3rd week. China started to inform that, virus was under control and started to praise Xi Jinping’s leadership.
- March-1st week. We already know. The virus has started to spread in European countries or Chinese/foreigners who have traveled from China to different countries started to spread virus. During January and February itself, many Asian countries like Japan, South Korea, Hongkong, Taiwan started to show symptoms. However, these countries avoided its spread unlike Europe.
So, from all these steps by China, it is clearly visible that, China did not act as a responsible nation. If this outbreak might have happened in democratic county like USA, India or any western European country, news of deaths of even 100 people might have become global headlines and it would have prevented outbreak spreading to world. What China did was suppression, lying, misinforming.
But why China did like this? Was it intentional? Well, there are many theories. Let us see possibilities.
First and foremost, as many are assuming, China might have created bioweapon, and it might have got leaked intentionally/unintentionally. Wuhan Institute of Virology is a BSL-4 laboratory located in Wuhan and it is considered as epicenter of this virus as per many conspiracy theories. This lab also China’s first BSL-4 laboratory (biosafety Level 4). These types of laboratories can work with agents that could easily be aerosol-transmitted within the laboratory and cause severe to fatal disease in humans for which there are no available vaccines or treatments. You can find more information on this link.
This lab has already produced a hybrid virus and published their research. The hybrid virus was able to infect human cells. Well, as per many experts in biosecurity, it is possible that COVID-19 pandemic started as an accidental release from a laboratory such as one of the two in Wuhan that are known to have been studying bat coronaviruses.
- So, if it was leaked intentionally, then it is possible that, it was mainly to collapse economy of Europe/USA. Well, I feel this is most certain possibility. Trump has been very critical to China, and it was almost certain that, Trump will win 2020 election and continue as President. Looking at his record, China might have faced many problems in upcoming years. So, I am not surprised if this theory comes true, where American opposition parties, with collaboration of China, might have created this crisis. China might have adopted this policy, to slow down the growth of other countries by damaging their economies and then help them. This is nothing, but “Create demand and then produce”. Looking at the laziness of China to prevent its people going out during this outbreak ( and also selecting this time during Chinese New Year to spread outbreak to maximum places) and also looking its big cities like Beijing, Shanghai not much affected, one may be easily convinced that, China has played dubious role. We still do not know, how many people have died actually in China. If Italy has around 12000 deaths as on 31st March (for the population of 6 crores ) within 2 months, then its is difficult to understand why China has only 3312 deaths within 5 months (for population of 140 crores ) leaving it bigger cities like Beijing, Shanghai without much causalities. Why USA is projected to have 1.7 million deaths in worst case scenario. Is China lying?? Well, logic says yes, China is lying about actual deaths.
- The last possibility which has been told by China till date is “wet market”. I firmly believe, if by chance aliens come on earth, Chinese will even taste them. However, if this is true, then Chinese must improve their food habits. World can’t be put on ventilator just because of Chinese food habits. Remember, even SARS was originated from China in early 2000s. China was blamed during that time for misinforming the world. (Please note, china was not as power full as it is today during that time and communist government did not have grip like it has right now to suppress information)
Whatever may be the possibility, but one thing which is certain is, China has suppressed information of virus leakage. Firstly, china came to know about this virus in Nov, 2019, but suppressed about seriousness till Jan,2020. Even though, somebody can argue that, it was novel virus and China could not have done much, but the way China arrested its own people, I am doubtful about its intentions. Most of world is also doubtful about number of people killed in China. In Jan,2020, China started to acknowledge that, they have something called Corona virus in their country. Note that, there was no lock down of the Wuhan for almost 1.5 to 2 months. This allowed to spread virus to many parts of the world. Whole world is paying huge price of Chinese blunder.
So, let us see, how world will be suffering after this crisis (if at all it becomes stable around summer).
- The lock downs will become normal. It may be possible that, there may be restrictions for movement of people in many countries, even after April. Most of companies will have to adjust with working from home. It is still not clear that, warmer weather will stop spread of virus. If it can then it can also return in winter at the end of year.
- I am not economy expert, but what I learnt that, world economy will be hit hard. IMF chief Kristalina Georggieva has already warned that, we have entered recession, which will be worse than 2009 recession. Global economy will shrink. Even fastest growing countries like India will grow at 2.1%. You will be surprised to know that, India along with Indonesia and china (yes, it is china) may avoid recession. Euro zone will be one of the hardest hit regions. Italy, which is third largest economy in EU, will be hit badly. Italy was already struggling with its fragile economy. EU will have difficult times ahead to take decision, if they can bail out Italy like Greece or not. They are already cracks in the countries in EU, weather they should help Italy and Spain or not. Germany already is not in mood for bailout to Italy and Spain. Difficult times ahead for EU.
- Many people will stop travelling. This will affect travel and tourism industry badly. Many airlines will go bankrupt if there is not bailout by governments. India is already planning bailout package for airlines. Automotive industry will be hit as people will stop buying vehicles in this year. This will even put suppliers of this industry in difficult situation. May be job losses are becoming reality if this crisis is extended.
- Trade war between USA and China will further escalate.
- Difficult time for Donald Trump. He has performed well, but if this crisis escalates and casualties is more in US, then his come back is not sure.
These all points suggest that, China has pushed whole world into recession. Had China acted quickly in Dec,2019, we will not be in this stage. Unfortunately, at this stage, China has become so powerful that, world is not able to blame China. However, If China is allowed to prove itself as victim, then there is not guarantee that, China will not do similar blunder again. This is biggest opportunity for west to shift its manufacturing base from China to Europe and USA. India can take this opportunity as boon and make its case strong for manufacturing. Western world had made big mistake to shift their manufacturing base to China in 1980. China has become so powerful now, that it has almost hijacked whole world. It has made many countries its colonies now. UNSC is dictated by China.
China is dominating FATF (Finanncial Action Task Force), where it is trying to bail out Pakistan from black list. In short, China is ruling most of international agencies and helping rough countries like Pakistan, N. Korea.
Yes, it’s a question mark on credibility of WHO (World Health Organization)? Does WHO really care?? In fact, WHO has completely become pet of China in this crisis. Taiwan already informed to WHO in December 2019 about human to human transmission of Chinese virus, however it was ignored by WHO under pressure from China. In January, WHO twitted that, “Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in Wuhan, China.” At a time, when world was supposed to know about crisis going to happen, WHO was taking orders of China and suppressing information under pressure from China. Current WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanmom Ghebreyesus was backed by China two years back. BTW, he was accused of covering up three cholera epidemics in his home country, Ethiopia, when he was health minister. You can go through this link to understand why he is praising China. https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/03/23/top-who-official-won-election-with-chinas-help-now-hes-running-interference-for-china-on-coronavirus/
To conclude, it is time for World to say enough to China. The cold war between China and USA is going to escalate. Russia was blamed for interference in USA elections, but this time China will dominate USA elections. China has already started its game and unfortunately whole world is victim now. Its time to get united against Chinese virus first and then against China later. Otherwise, China will make whole world as its colony in coming years.