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How can the BJP still win with landslide numbers in the 2019 general elections?

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Chartered Accountant,Blogger,Writer and Political Analyst. Author of the Book- इस दशक के नेता : नरेंद्र मोदी.
The recently concluded by-elections have come as a rude shock for the BJP. By-elections were held in the country in 4 Lok Sabha and 11 Assembly constituencies on May 28.
The BJP just managed to win only one Lok Sabha and one Assembly seat. Political analysts are surprised to see that somehow the narrative set by the mainstream media has started producing results and the opposition parties have somehow cracked the formula of cornering the Modi government in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections due to be held in 2019.

However, the analysis made by the so-called political experts and the reason being given for the poor performance of the BJP is far from reality. The opposition parties, even after forming a united alliance or “mahagathbandhan” are not in a position to defeat the Modi government. Only the core BJP supporters can ensure a victory or defeat for the party in any election. At the moment the core BJP supporters are angry with the party as it has not fulfilled its promises despite a period of 4 years have passed. These “angry voters” are either not coming to vote or are pressing the NOTA button in every election thereby helping the opposition parties indirectly. These core BJP supporters-turned angry voters are now feeling that the Modi government is not doing enough to implement its pre-poll promises. Let us first summarise below the expectations and the pre-poll promises of the Modi government:

  1. There was a pre-poll promise that all the political leaders involved in corruption during the last 60 years of misrule shall be put behind bars. Not a single leader has been sent to jail and all are roaming free, challenging and abusing Modi and trying to form a “mahagathbandhan” to defeat Modi in 2019. The BJP is giving an explanation that most of the corrupt opposition leaders have been granted bail by the courts and it is helpless. The BJP supporters are not convinced with this explanation and want all corrupt politicians in jail as soon as possible.
  2. The Modi government is not doing enough to tackle anti-national elements. People are angry with the BJP for forming a government in coalition with Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP in Jammu & Kashmir and want that the Army to deal with these elements as they deem fit. People got particularly angered with the suspension of security operations during Ramzan, for example.
  3. While the Congress is making all-out efforts to postpone the Supreme Court verdict in the Ram Mandir case with Kapil Sibal even requesting the apex court to postpone the hearing in the matter until the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are held, the BJP is not making any efforts to expedite the matter.
  4. The BJP is also completely silent on repealing of Article 370 and implementation of a Uniform Civil Code.
  5. The BJP has not taken any action against the jungle raj prevailing in Kerala and West Bengal where Hindus and BJP workers are regularly beaten and murdered on large scale. Both these states are perfect cases fit for the imposition of President’s rule. But the BJP has done nothing to dismiss these state governments.
  6. The core voters of the BJP have demonstrated this anger in all the by-elections, giving sufficient hints to the BJP top brass to mend its ways, but nothing concrete is being done. In Karnataka, the BJP lost at least 10 seats due to NOTA factor which ultimately resulted in the party sitting in the opposition. BJP’s victory margin was reduced in Gujarat due to NOTA factor.

The Lok Sabha elections are due in 2019 and very limited time is left with the government to act on the above agenda. The BJP had won 282 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. Political experts feel that if the BJP starts working now on all these issues on a war footing, it can easily win more than 400 seats. However, if all these issues are not addressed or taken up immediately, voters are ready to teach the government another lesson with NOTA.

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Chartered Accountant,Blogger,Writer and Political Analyst. Author of the Book- इस दशक के नेता : नरेंद्र मोदी.
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