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When Psephology becomes victim of ideology – How Congress spread fake survey

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Election season is a very important time for many businesses like banner printing, supporters/ workers for hire, media, psephologists, etc. In today’s market, everything is evolving. You need to be trendy, fast, creative to able to catch eyeballs thereby a piece in this very lucrative pie. So everyone is coming up with new brilliant ideas to catch the attention of the customers in this case, political parties.

In the age of Social media, all these businesses are also getting democratized and everyone is turning themselves to be poster designers, keyboard supporters, media, psephologists, etc. Since I support free market principles, I don’t have an issue in any of this. In fact, I actually encourage most of them. This has also kept the traditional players in these trades on their toes. However, this rapid democratization has also given way for fake news/ opinion pieces masquerading as psephology which is an issue.

Anyway, in this article, I would like to show how funny some of the fake psephologists’ results are when compared to reality. There is a gentleman called Sumit Kashyap who has prepared a tracker by “comprehensive analysis of all reports”. Here is his report I have downloaded from his twitter TL.

The seat predictions shared by a Congress supporter on Twitter

To know his credibility you don’t have to go any further than his prediction of Chattisgarh seats. Out of 11 seats there, he gives 8 to Congress, but for Congress+ (which means with allies) the number drops to 7. Congress doesn’t have any allies in Chattisgarh. So the number for Congress+ should have been 8 only. But the number has mysteriously dropped to 7. This clearly shows how this report was prepared.

First, he has put the total seats won by Congress which is 150 and then distributed the numbers. I will give one more example of the farfetchedness of this report. For Karnataka, the numbers for Congress & Congress+ are 12 & 18 respectively. This means the ally of Congress in Karnataka, JDS should win 6 seats. On paper, JDS is contesting on 7 seats but in reality, they are only fighting 3 seats of Hassan, Mandya, & Tumakuru (HMT). Of these they are certain to lose Mandya and Tumakuru is a toss-up. As far as Congress is concerned, their only safe seat is Bengaluru Rural, a DK Shivkumar fiefdom. Still, this clown psephologist predicts 18 seats for Congress+

Recently there was an article planted by Congress as to how the party is headed for a landslide victory in this general elections. Why I say this article is planted is because for an author who has “more than 15 years of experience” this is the only article in medium platform. He also has a handful of followers, all pointing to a planted story.

Anyway, the article says Congress is poised to win 230 seats. First of all winning 230 seats out of 543 seats is not landslide victory. One has to secure at least 60% seats to call a landslide victory. That aside, it is well known that Congress is realistically contesting in only 210 seats. How is it going to achieve victory in 230 seats is a serious question that needs answering.

Also, here I present the most damning evidence. The CM of Madhya Pradesh, Kamalnath who is a key Congress leader confidently predicts 122 seats for Congress. You can then imagine the actual number he might have in mind (My guess is just about 60)

Senior leader of Congress and Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister predicting less than 125 seats for Congress in 2019 Lok Sabha polls

Yet, why do these psephologists get their numbers so wrong and so out of sync from ground reality? I’m not suggesting that their numbers have to be 100% accurate. We have seen many reports by actual psephologists who have done their work scientifically go horribly wrong when actual results are out. But then, those reports were the result of their data collection and analysis, not on ideologies. If you want to be a good psephologist you should be bereft of your ideologies and take the numbers as they come because when the results do come they don’t care about your ideology.

I know psephology is more of an art than science. But an art, created without even holding the canvas right is not an art at all. Hence, a piece of free advice to all these budding psephologists: Never allow your ideology to color your reports and analyses. If you do then you lose your credibility.

Finally, #AyegaToModiHi 😉

Parrot alerts of raid by Brazilian police

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Although the parrots do not have vocal cords like their owners, they do have the anatomy required to talk. This was apparently approved when the pet parrot called out, “Mamae, policia!” meaning Mama, police! The green-colored taught parrot began warning of the police approach by the side of the alleged drug dealers’ house. The police officers were badly on a lookout for the two crack-dealing suspects including that parrot’s owner in Brazil state Piaui. The parrot was in due course seized for its offense of informing about the police raid. The police found the speaking parrot perched inside a small brick one-storey home of the two suspected crack cocaine dealers.

The detention of animals and birds were not bizarre as there were numerous instances of putting them behind the jail limits. The Brazilian drug cartels used the birds as symbols of power as well. Reuters once reported in the year 2009 that the traffickers hid drugs in crates containing venomous reptiles. Such weird cases in which animals or birds were taken into custody are available in our country too. A few tongue-tied donkeys were jailed in Uttar Pradesh. Further, one rooster was brought into the police station for pecking a girl in Madhya Pradesh.

Parrots are one of the few birds considered vocal learners meaning they can imitate sounds. Scientists have discovered how parrots talk, as they believe it’s down to the wiring in their brains. Birds like the parrot or the dove or the goose were prominently used as a messenger. It uses its whole body, its eyes and their feathers to exchange a few words’ messages. Key structural differences in the parrots’ brains explain the birds’ ability to imitate sounds and human speech. That’s why parrots mimic words properly thereby facilitating its masters learn of the furtive communication. They were supposed to have been carrying the information quickly. The parrots can be regarded as the harbinger of the wireless system.

Nyay or Anyay? Congress’s promise of minimum income to poors looks confusing

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Recently Congress has released their manifesto and has given special focus to scheme NYAY (Nyunatam Aay Yojna) which indeed looks a visionary at first glance,  but it is turning out to confusing and unclear. We’ll try to examine with the facts and the claims of Congress’s leaders.

As per Congress, the scheme is meant for poorest of poor Indian people which as per congress president Sh. Rahul Gandhi’s claims, stand at 25 Crore. 

Rahul Gandhi’s claims as reported by the media

Let’s do a little maths. 25 Cr / 4.5 ( family per member ) =  5.55 Crore families
5.55 Cr * 72000 = 399600 Crore INR
3996000000000 INR = 57263999427.36 US$  OOps !!

But as per Indian govt’s reports of 2011, the population of people living under the poverty line ( 1.25$ ) was about 276 million i.e. around 22 %, while world bank estimated it to be 23.6%. So, do we have really that much poor people living in India in the year 2019?  what is the exact no. of poor?

As per World poverty clock, India is already heading to get rid of poverty within this year itself as it is on  20.9 % current escape rate which is almost 3X of the targetted rate of 7.06 %. By Mid November 2019 the population below the poverty line will be under 3 %, which means  4  Crore or 88 Lacs Families (considering 4.5 members per family, i.e National average members per family).

World poverty clock covers around 99.7 % of World population and uses publicly available data on income distribution and consumption provided by the UN, World Bank and IMF.We must wait for further clarification from Congress leaders and economists. If Congress is elected to power, this scheme can put our fast-growing economy under pressure, and looking at the past of party some of the people are taking a dig at President Rahul Gandhi and calling it a preparation for another scam!

Feedback/suggestion/comments are welcome.

Reference :
1. https://www.businesstoday.in/lok-sabha-elections-2019/news/congress-manifesto-nyay-scheme-to-be-tested-for-6-9-months-before-rollout/story/333255.html
2. World poverty Clock: https://worldpoverty.io/

Can we Trust Congress On National Security: Historical Perspective

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Congress was the successor to the British Raj politically and effectively in all spheres of the newly independent Indian nation. Nehru was chosen by MK Gandhi against the wishes of the majority in the Congress and nominated by the Congress WorCom or Working Committee whereas as many as 12 out of 17 PCCs or the Pradesh Congress Committees has nominated Sardar Patel to be the Prime Minister of the independent India.

Various contemporary British Raj officers had vouched for Patel being a more clear headed and more decisive leader who was a Realist first and foremost. However, Gandhi had in many ways since the 1930 Lahore Convention had more or less anointed Nehru as his successor and it was enough for Sardar to cede this most important prize of the Independence to Jawahar, as he was called by Sardar.

Nehru was more of an Anglophile, a suave and polished version decidedly liked by the British as they could easily relate to than Sardar, who despite his Bar in England was more rooted to the soil, a more rustic and traditional man whose views and values were more than pronounced in Indian context. It was primarily these qualities of Nehru which moved Gandhi to anoint Nehru as his political successor rather than Sardar. One thing which worked in favour of Jawaharlal was his acceptance among the minorities, especially Muslims who were left behind or chose to stay in India post Partition.

Kashmir Cauldron

This background is central to the issue of National Security in face of the events which unfolded soon after and which remain most relevant today. In fact, the 70 years must be viewed with a security spectrum as India is bound by not so friendly neighbourhood.
The first challenge rose soon enough in form of external invasion by the Pakistani Army and the Pashtun tribal militias in 1947-48. The bone of contention was Kashmir, a uniquely situated State with even more diverse ethnicity, its three regions had three different ethnic and religious groups of people.

Kashmir Valley and Northern Areas Of Gilgit -Baltistan was predominantly Muslim, Sunnis, with scattering of Shias and Gujjars, Jammu had a Hindu majority while Ladakh though sparsely populated was entirely Buddhist with Kargil district being Shia dominant. The peculiarities of his rule led Maharaja Hari Singh to dither and procrastinate on the future of his State, which according to the British mandate was free to choose its destiny. Both, India and Pakistan wanted this important State with its boundaries touching Central Asia, China and Pakistan, in fact Kashmir was the most interesting and most important piece of Real Estate post the British Raj in India. Even Britain wanted a piece of it to stall the Russian Bear in its southward march for the warm waters of Indian Ocean.

The treacherous game was evident in the way the Gilgit and Baltistan were betrayed by the British officers to Pakistan. Maharaja Hari Singh was forced to sign the Instrument Of Accession on 26 Oct 1947 in view of the impending entry of the tribal militias led by regular armed forces of Pakistan into Srinagar. The War then on is a subject matter of Military History but it gives insight to the workings of the people who were at the helm of affairs in India.

Nehru was more than hesitant to repulse what was essentially an attack on the sovereignty of the Indian nation. The Indian Army which was tasked to throw out the invaders was hamstrung by lack of clarity on behalf the top leadership led by Nehru and N Gopalaswami Aiyengar, his Minister of Kashmir…

When the Indian Army was poised to throw out the invaders, in a favourable situation, Nehru committed the Herculean blunder of referring the Tribal Invasion to the UN against the wishes of Sardar Patel. This decision has haunted the Nation ever since, if it wasn’t enough, he agreed to a UN sponsored and monitored Plebiscite in the entire State Of Kashmir. Sardar was against both the arbitrary decisions taken by Nehru as the Prime Minister and the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Army has reiterated that it was capable of throwing out the Tribals if it was given the time. The referral to the UN and a Unilateral Ceasefire by India has led to this gargantuan Problem of Kashmir which we see today. It’s not the intent to point out the legislative bunglings which can fill volumes of books.

Chinese Checkers

If, Kashmir was Nehru’s miscalculation what excuse does the nation have with respect to the Chinese Conundrum ?

Never ever has anyone been able to decipher the foolish romanticism of Nehru while dealing with the Chinese. As early as 1950, China had started showing its colours, it began to subdue Tibet which acted as buffer between the two Asian giants, both gaining independence from foreign rulers and invaders. Chinese have always believed that Tibet is an integral part of ancient China and whatever deviation exists is of recent historicity.
China initially did not react to Nehru’s claim on Aksai Chin but subsequently after annexing Tibet it started its Sabre Rattling. Nehru was always aware of the fact that Chinese would take over Tibet but did absolutely nothing in this regard. In fact, in a note dated 18.11.50 he accepts the inevitability of Tibet wasting away and there’s nothing that we could. (Ref: Patel, A Life, Rajmohan Gandhi).

The fact that Nehru had abdicated Tibet in its gravest hour was another of his greatest blunders, if Nehru thought he had bought Peace he was sadly mistaken and it was proven by the Chinese in less than six years when China made that road through Aksai Chin linking Tibet to Zinxiang in 1956-57. In fact, the Burmese leader Ba Swe warned Nehru not to trust Zhou en Lai as the unclassified CIA documents show. While Chinese didn’t dispute any Indian territorial claims, it’s official maps showed a substantial Indian territory as China’s in both Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh or NEFA as it was then called.

The Panchsheel Agreement, Bandung Conference and many other hesitant steps to restore normalcy failed, the 1959 asylum to Dalal Lama was the proverbial straw that broke the Camel’s back. Chinese designs since 1950s had been very aggressive and demanding, there was no subterfuge when it came to expansionist tendencies of China on Tibet, yet when India pushed its Forward Policy doctrine, there was no change in its military policy, no augmentation of Forces, no force multiplier, no acquisition of new weapon systems, no material change except a change in doctrine without any support. And India paid heavily for this blunder in the ensuing War of 1962. Chinese came upto Tejpur in Assam and it was only Unilateral Ceasefire by the Chinese which restored sanity.

The Armed Forces had fought tooth and nails but were poorly equipped, poorly fed and poorly armed to meet a well oiled war machine in the PLA or the People’s Liberation Army. The stories of valour and bravery of our troops is the only reason for us to remember the debacle of 1962. The saga Of Rezang La, the stands at icy heights of Nuranang remind us of our inadequacy in the face of a dogged enemy who had done his homework better. Nehru had appointed BM Kaul, non combat soldier to head War only because he was a Kashmiri. There are tomes of reports on the Himalayan Blunder. Nehru died a disenchanted man, a romantic who was cured of his romanticism by the harsh reality of Chinese medicine.

1965 and 1971 Wars

India was dominant in the 1965 War and held more Pakistani territory than vice a versa but the Tashkent Agreement nullified the territorial advantage of as also the tactical advantage enjoyed by the armed forces by agreeing to a Ceasefire. The most important and strategically located Haji Pir Pass, the priceless prize of the War was returned to Pakistan at Tashkent, and not because Lal Bahadur Shastri wanted but the coterie with in Congress led by Indira was in cohorts with the Russians and its notorious spy agency, the KGB.

If failures of 1965 are a sore thorn in our sides we went on to suffer a tragic diplomatic defeat at the Shimla Agreement. Indira Gandhi had handed a humiliating defeat to Pakistan and divided Pakistan into two independent nations of Pakistan and Bangladesh by her military manoeuvres ably led by Field Marshall Sam Manekshaw. The fact that 1971 was the most comprehensive and complete victory by the Indian armed forces has been overshadowed by the post War losses suffered due to diplomatic failure.

India had divided a nation but it had gained nothing except a temporary reprieve. There was no headway in any of the other pending issues between the two countries. The LoC was never settled, the question of J&K as integral part of India wasn’t even brought up since Pakistan had gone to War twice before on the issue of Kashmir. India could not leverage its total victory on the battlefield to a successful degradation of the capabilities of our adversary. The fact that India had 93000 Pakistani POWs in the War yet we could not force the Pakistanis to return 54 of ours many of whom were in captivity since 1965 is a sad reflection on our inability to force the issue, especially on matters of National Security. Indira fought a great War but failed miserably at the Table. She was completely taken in by Bhutto’s charm say many who were there at the negotiating table.

Khalistan and Sri Lanka

Khalistan Movement was initially a ploy by Indira Gandhi to prop up Bhindranwale against the Akalis who were the most prominent in Punjab but it soon became its own master and played into the hands of the wily next door dictator, Gen Zia ul Haq. Zia has witnessed the division of Pakistan and was fired up with the Islamist’s zeal to see the end of India and what better way than breaking up India on religious lines.

Bhindranwale soon became the Frankenstein which every creator fears, Indira had to call the armed forces to deal with this unprecedented security threat posed from the precincts of the holiest Sikh shrine, the Golden Temple in Amritsar. In the end, Indira Gandhi paid with her life. It is imperative here to know that Bhindranwale and Khalistan was a creation of Indira to sideline the comparatively moderate Akalis in Punjab politics. She went on to play with the Security of the Nation at the cost of her political career. Nothing can be more sinister and diabolic.

Sri Lankan Tamils had genuine grievances against the working of the Sri Lankan State which had suppressed the legitimate civil rights of the ethnic Tamil population mainly residing in the North and Eastern Sri Lanka. When Tamils started demanding their rights and took to violent means led by various armed groups. India dirtied the muddled waters by providing both financial and training assistance to the most powerful of the armed Tamil groups, LTTE or Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. It set up camps for training along with refugee camps in Tamil Nadu. This not so covert operation could be sustained only upto its optimum level of leverage or influence. Meanwhile, LTTE outgrew its utility to Indian strategists and India went into the Jayawardene-Rajiv Pact which called for disarming of all Tamil groups including LTTE.

Little did Rajiv Gandhi realise that it had walked into a snake pit. LTTE by the time this pact was signed was the sole representative of the minority Tamils. It had a huge following, armed to teeth and were masters of jungle warfare and guerilla tactics. Rajiv egged on by Jayawardene pushed Indian armed forces into a disastrous war with an enemy who was trained, financed and supported by India. IPKF, Indian Peace Keeping Force was a disaster in all aspects of statecraft. India lost face militarily, it lost the strategic game in the Indian Ocean and it soured the Indo-Sri Lanka relationship giving the Chinese a foothold in the Indian backyard. The consequences of this disastrous policy failure has led to China gaining an upper hand in our neighbourhood.

I have tried to deal with the macro issues of the national security concerns without going into the nitty gritties. The continuing terror related violence in India is the biggest concern and it requires a holistic approach by which this long term threat is minimised or completely removed from our midst. It has been almost four decades of terrorism in India, commencing with the Khalistan movement which has been contained but not eliminated and still remains a dormant threat to the country.

However, it’s the Islamic Terrorism or International Jihad which now assumes wholly new dimensions in India, there has been a constant and continuous radicalisation of Muslim society in general and the the Muslim youth in particular. Middle East, the ever smouldering powder keg is ready to blow itself anytime. ISIS, al Qaeda, LeT, JeM, HM and many others believe that targeting India is a legitimate duty of every Muslim, it is his duty to carry out Jihad against the Kaffir, the infidel.

The record of Congress does not inspire any confidence in the matters of national security. The inability of the successive Congress governments to formulate any tangible policy on countering terrorism is all too obvious in its functioning in the period of 2004-14 of UPA I & II. Mumbai 26/11 was a watershed moment in the way terror was unleashed in the heart of Indian financial capital, and the response was tepid and pusillanimous that it emboldened the Islamic terrorists to carry out widespread public bombings throughout the Country.

Many have derided the Muscular Approach of the Modi government in dealing with Pakistan and terrorism post-Uri but any sane nation will want to be insulated from a threat which over the decades has become more and more potent and will also want the adversary to understand the costs of conducting such operations. The adversary must know that its misadventure will be responded in kind with a heavy price to pay in matters of both men and material. The Surgical Strike post-Uri and the Balakot Air Strikes post-Pulwama have set a new precedent for the future conduct of similar attempts by our adversary. But gloating over one strike or an air strike is the surest way to lose sight of the long term objectives of the Country.

Modern strategic thinking believes in attrition and downgrading of the capabilities of the adversary to conduct or carry out similar attacks. And it’s not just the military might but a complex combination of economics, foreign policy, cultural or soft power attributes in consonance with a superior military might which may achieve the objectives desired by the Nation.

And, it’s here that Narendra Modi has demonstrated that he is capable of moulding a new approach to the most important issue in the lives of Indians and finding a way out of the Cauldron created by the lack of leadership and the ability to respond effectively to the threats posed by our adversary and also the phenomenon of Islamic Radicalisation which for long had left India alone but recent years have taught us that Home Grown Terror is no longer an exception but a sordid fact of every day life in India.

India has seen a much better five years of governance, a government which has visibly destroyed the ability of the adversary to attack the Indian Mainland with the terror acts restricted to the flashpoint Kashmir. Modi government has revisited the National Security paradigm with a totally different perspective than the usual conservative manner which was nothing but half measures unable to define our response to recurring concerns.

2019 LokSabha election will make or break the new Paradigm.

West shrugs Saudi executions

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Saudi Arabia has been in the center of news for its execution of 37 people in recent days. The British online paper Independent carried out this action prominently. As many as 33 people were reported to be followers of the Shiite sect. These horrid executions had taken place in furtherance of a series of atrocities carried out on Saudi citizens from time to time. However, it was also stated that this was the most appalling execution after the year 2016.

Since royalty prevails in that Arabian Kingdom, execution remains a very soft alternative for the Saudi rulers under the prescribed strict criminal laws of that oil-rich country. Condemnations pour in but the West seemed to have adopted a dilly-dallying approach in censuring the Saudi authorities. According to the research conducted from human rights charity Reprieve, the number of executions has doubled since the Crown Prince has come to power.

The Western countries including America and Britain show no remorse in thereby annoying the human rights group awaiting fairness. What compels them was the sale of the arms and fighter jets to the Arab world. If Britain or America or other Western countries did not talk about recently reported Saudi executions, the main reason behind the well-ordered silence was nothing but arms’ sale to the Saudi Kingdom. The UK government has licensed at least $ 4.7 billion worth of jets and bombs to the Saudi military, according to the reports.

However, the US Commission on International Religious Freedom said the American State Department must stop giving a free pass to Saudi Arabia. Donald Trump pointed to its major purchases of US weapons, its giant oil exports and its hostility towards US rival Iran. The Saudi kingdom is ranked among the top five executioners in the world. According to Amnesty International, it carried out the death sentences of 149 people last year.

Forget Modi wave, Google trends is predicting a Modi tsunami in 2019

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Elections are interesting for every country, and now globally also due to interwoven fabric of globalisation. There is a billion dollar industry of predicting election out comes and results. The most common method used by agencies is exit polls. Post US elections in 2016, Google Trends has emerged as an interesting tool to analyse election trends, throughout the US election year in 2016 Google Trends predicted a victory for Trump based on search trends.

India is also not behind, in the state assembly elections held in last two years Google Trends was on target pointing at potential winners. Let’s look at couple of examples.

  1. Gujarat Assembly Elections 2017:
Gujarat 2017 Assembly Election Google search query trends
Gujarat 2017 election result prediction: For leader of the respective political party

From the Google Trends for the period three months before Gujarat assembly elections in 2017, it was evident that Narendra Modi was a much popular leader in Gujarat compared to Rahul Gandhi and the key word BJP was more searched on internet to Congress. The outcome of election was BJP won and formed government in the state.

2. Karnataka Assembly Elections 2018:

Karnataka 2018 Assembly Election result prediction for parties
Karnataka 2018 Assembly Election result prediction for leaders of the respective political parties

The sensitivity of Google Trends is visible in the data of three months before Karnataka assembly elections, the key words containing party name searched on the internet suggested first position for BJP, second for Congress and third for JDS. The election results were in line with google trends, ultimately Congress-JDS joined hands and formed government there.

3. Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections 2018:

The recent 2019 three state elections result prediction for parties
Trend on leadership search

The image of Google Trends for the period three months prior to assembly elections in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh clearly suggested a Congress wave across the region. The internet search space that BJP dominated, was clearly seen to be lost in the entire central India region, Congress was clearly trending, dominating the political arena. The outcome of the election was completely in favour of Congress with victory in all three states.

4. Parliamentary Elections 2019:

The Google Big Data Trends for the period three months prior to my writing this article on 26th April, 2019 clearly suggests a BJP wave across India. Congress is having upper hand only in the states of Andhra Pradesh and Nagaland, rest of the Indian states in blue are suggesting a clear preference for BJP. As leader, Narendra Modi has a clear edge in entire India, excluding states of Manipur, Nagaland, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The concentration of dark blue colour in states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, West-Bengal, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka suggest a clear higher interest towards BJP.

While the entire country is with  Modi, Congress seems to be breathing only in Andhra Pradesh and Nagaland.
Popularity of Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi

Google Trends uses the method of percentile to rank geographical regions and trends, region having highest searches for a key word out of total internet searches is given rank 1 and multiplied by 100, all other regions are then ranked up in percentile multiplied by 100. The catch here is population, a smaller state having lesser population but higher preference for a keyword can be ranked much ahead in Google Trends. It is important to normalise this data with population to find actual picture.

To do so, we create percentile of Indian states based on population and multiply it with Google Trends data of the same state, the sum of these numbers will give a national Google Trend Impact Score. The present score of BJP for the same is 82296.4 and for Congress it is 56957.2, BJP here is leading by almost 45% margin. Interestingly the same score during the 2018 MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh election was found to be 70720 for BJP and 60272 for Congress pan India. In the three states where elections were held Congress was leading with score of 21100 against 18931 of BJP. The outcome of those results are known to us.

This unique ability of Google Trends Big Data is clearly suggesting a massive interest for BJP in the highly populated states of UP, West-Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand and Gujarat. The table summarizes state wise Interest for BJP and Congress in populated states. Even states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where BJP is not present as of now are demonstrating interest.

Considering the precedence of correlation between Google Trends and election results, we are looking at Modi forming government in 2019 with full majority. The poll results are likely to give unprecedented up rise to BJP’s tally this time. A Modi Tsunami is in making for sure………..the final tally for NDA can be a surprise for many pundits counting on caste and religion politics.

Region BJP: (1/26/19 – 4/26/19) Congress: (1/26/19 – 4/26/19)
Odisha 68% 32%
Delhi 61% 39%
West Bengal 73% 27%
Uttarakhand 58% 42%
Jharkhand 62% 38%
Chhattisgarh 59% 41%
Karnataka 59% 41%
Uttar Pradesh 68% 32%
Assam 58% 42%
Haryana 59% 41%
Kerala 58% 42%
Maharashtra 58% 42%
Gujarat 60% 40%
Himachal Pradesh 52% 48%
Jammu and Kashmir 57% 43%
Telangana 48% 52%
Bihar 59% 41%
Madhya Pradesh 55% 45%
Tamil Nadu 53% 47%
Andhra Pradesh 45% 55%
Rajasthan 52% 48%
Punjab 50% 50%

 

From Bhookamp (भूकंप) to Brahmastra – Know the lying dynasty on bail, save India, elect Modi

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The biggest comedian in Indian politics, the one who remains unbeatable in telling lies without even an iota of shame, the one who rides purely on dynasty and getting celebrated due to sycophants and Punkah coolies has proved once again that he alone can beat his records in saying jokes and lies. Once the dynast claimed that he has some truth and if reveals that would cause Bhookamp. But not even a storm in tea cup the dynast could make after his claim of producing a Bhookamp.

Subsequently when the other dynast of the party, the sister of the Namdar was launched in UP politics, the Punkah coolies and sycophants called the sister of the dynast to be the Brahmastra of congress party and claimed that she would sweep polls in UP for congress. May be due the hype and hymn of sycophants and Punkah coolie, the daughter dynast went to the extent to say she would contest against PM Modi in Varanasi and would defeat him if her brother dynast ever wants her to do so. The premature and immature statement has given some fuel to the Punkah coolie to write columns after columns about the daughter dynast and her political acumen.

The so called independent journalists depending upon the wage of the dynast have gone to an extent to claim that the daughter dynast may even defeat Narendra Modi in Varanasi. The question is how long all those sycophants of the dynast would see day dream and live in fool’s paradise? Even after seeing Modi Tsunami in Varanasi, if the sycophants refuse to see the truth, oblige to speak only lies and dispose only ignorance, no one can help them or can save them either.

Indians must be very careful of all those obnoxious and toxic elements from hurting the development and national security of India. Modi has made a sea of change, developments in Varanasi. Varanasi is the nucleus of Hinduism, cradle of spirituality and the river Ganga is the soul of our Hindu tradition. Time has come India must re-invent its ancient roots and re-trace its identity that India is a Hindu Rastra. The secular fabric in India remain unturned purely due to the tolerance and resilience of Hindus as the Hindu culture is all about tolerance, acceptance and equal respect even to those who defer with Hinduism.

The road show of PM Modi is Varanasi has witnessed how much Indians love and respect him. No political leader enjoys such respect like Modi because he is honest, committed and on the agenda of development and sab ka vikas. Whereas the dynast and most his family members who are on bail, facing serious corruption charges, are engaged in spreading negativity and hatred, minority appeasement and humiliating Hindus by coining terms called Hindu and saffron terrorism. Sadhvi Pragya is the living fossil of the atrocities of congress government towards Hinduism.

Narendra Modi did cause Tsunami of support to his candidature and for BJP. The good and corruption free governance, governance focused on development, national security and sab ka vikas, promoting the economic leadership of India, making everyone equal partners in building NEW INDIA are the leadership style of Narendra Modi whereas the dynast is constantly engaged in negativity, telling lies, minority appeasement, playing caste politics, promoting nepotism, corruption, dynastic politics etc. India has changed significantly. People are well-informed. Therefore the dynast cannot sell his lies in the political bazaar of India anymore. Unfortunately no one has educated the dynast about NEW INDIA and instead appears to have tutored only about the rotten congress style of campaigning which is full of lies and negativity.

Therefore every Indian must work towards achieving congress mukt Bharat. The maker of bhookamp along with the Brahmastra is sufficient enough to destroy the congress party as both of them are engaged in negativity and hate politics. Indian politics can be transferred into the game of positive energy, progress, vision for future, development agenda and micro-plans for sab ka vikas only if Indians vote out the dynastic forces and Tukde Tukde gangs. Therefore Modi must be supported by people unconditionally and must give decisive majority so that the agenda of development, national security and sab ka vikas can continue and India shall become an economic global super power.

India is drowning under the negative politics of the dynast & namdars and the election is not about just defeating the dynastic politics in India but it is all about save India from the Tukde Tukde gangs which want to scavenge and loot the public exchequer after comes to power.  Save India and elect Narendra Modi led BJP should be the mantra, people of chant, spread and follow until the election is over.

Chowkidar Ranganathan

5G dawns upon English cows while we spar at animals

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Of the various scientific and technological advancements enveloping smart skills in the field of electronic science, a few are also reaching the animals prior to the humans. We are still blissful with a 4 G facility extended to us by country’s 2nd largest private telecom company. However, there is country in the world map that provides 5 G benefits to its cows before this facility comes in touch with the humans literally.

How distressing it is that we were fighting over milch animals merely to score political mileage or revenge. We in our great country are still playing politics over animals. It has reached a level of turbulent political issue. Side by side lynching in the name of animals also goes on aimlessly. The value of human beings stands redundant before the animals’ political value.

Just contrary to this kind of perception the cows in Britain secure technological benefits on the living planet. The British cows were going smart in this time of scientific wonders. It is more often reiterated that we were much backward in the technological development. How can we claim of our scientific growth if we remain involved in the political mess? If the British cows are availing 5G benefits, it was certainly due to the British government’s initiative and cooperation with the CISCO Systems. The Rural First project was supported by the CISCO Systems whose director expects to connect the technology with every animal in the future.

As many as 50 cows were fitted with high-tech WiFi 5 G smart collars and ear tags. These smart collars interact with the robotic milking system. The cows are identified by the collar. The cows are milked by the robotics system automatically. The 5 G enabled ear tags monitor cow’s location and health. Westerners definitely think about the future days ahead and that’s why they succeed in reaping the gain in advance.

When the Britishers were entering into India during the time of Emperor Nurruddin Mohd Jehangir, what they demanded from the fourth Great Mughal was neither diamond nor gold nor silver in lieu of their medical service granted to ailing royal prince. They wanted facility to trade in Indian limits. Thus they thought of the future and slowly and steadily established their rule in the country.

In the same way when there were taking place revolutionary changes in the field of electronic science, the British project provides the 5 G wireless facility to the cows. As a result the British cows are now getting the 5 G benefits before the humans plainly.

मोदी से बड़ा मोदी का नाम

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इतिहास में ऐसे पल दुर्लभ ही होते हैं जब व्यक्ति से बड़ा उसका नाम हो जाता है। अगर भारतीय इतिहास के दुर्लभतम व्यक्तित्वों को देखे तो भी यह सबों को नसीब नहीं होता। तुलसीदासजी नें “राम” का नाम श्री राम से बड़ा कहा। बुद्ध एवं महावीर भी इसी श्रेणी में आयेंगे। आधुनिक भारत पर दृष्टि डाले तो गाँधी का नाम स्वयं महात्मा गाँधी से भी बड़ा हैं। इन सबों ने अपने पुरुषार्थ से अपने नाम को इतिहास मे अमर ही नहीं वरण अपने नामों की काया इतनी बड़ी कर दी कि पीढ़ी दर पीढ़ी स्वयं को इन नामों से जोड़ती चली आई।

अगर इस कालचक्र की दिशा वर्तमान की ओर मोड़े तो एक आनंदमय अनुभूति होती है मोदी नाम की। परन्तु, अगर मोदीजी की खानदानी पृष्ठभूमि पर नजर डाले तो जो तुलनात्मक अध्ययन की चाह मन को उत्साहित कर रहा है उस पर प्रश्नचिह्न लगना स्वभाविक है कारण कि मर्यादा पुरुषोत्तम श्री राम हो, या बुद्ध अथवा महावीर या फिर राष्टपिता गाँधी, इन सभी के समाजिक, आर्थिक एवं राजनीतिक पृष्ठभूमि कुलिन हैं। पर, अगर हम वर्तमान प्रधानमंत्री मोदीजी की बात करें तो एक अति समान्य पृष्ठभूमि से तालुक रखतें हैं। गरीबी की संघर्ष ने उन्हे मानवीय मूल्यों को समझकर राष्ट्र एवं नीतियों की ज्ञान से अनुभूति कराया।

पर, क्या उन विभूतियों से मोदीजी की तुलना की कुचेष्टा हास्यापद हैं? वेदानुसार, व्यक्तित्वों की तुलना का मजबूत आधार कर्म है। और कर्म मे प्रगाढ़ता लाने का सुगम मार्ग अनुशासन होकर गुजरता है। बीजेपी में एक जमीनी कार्यकर्ता के तौर पर अपनी निष्ठा एवं रचनात्मक शैली से अटलजी के मन: भाव मे प्रवेश कर 2001 मे गुजरात राज्य का मुखिया बनने का अवसर मिला। मुखिया पद को सेवक पद मे तब्दील कर, गुजरात की अनुपम सेवाकर अपने नाम को हर गुजरातियों के श्वास में प्रवाहित करवा दिया। अपनी राजकीय सेवा भाव से उन्होंने गुजरात माॅडल की ऐसी अमित छाप छोड़ी कि सम्पूर्ण भारतवर्ष उन्हे अपना बनाने को लालायित हो उठा। मोदी-मोदी की वह आँधी चली की पूरा भारतवर्ष मोदीमय हो गया।

मई 2014 में वें प्रधानमंत्री बन गए। विश्व इतिहास में कई ऐसे मोके आये जब प्रभावी वक्ता जन मन में आश की दीप जलाकर जन-मानस के मन भाव मे प्रवेश कर अपने नेतृत्व की शिखा पर चढ जाता है। संभवतः सभी राजनीतिक आलोचक इसी आशा के तत्व को मोदीजी के राजनीतिक उत्थान का कारण बताया। उनके सफल चुनावी बोल- अच्छे दिन आनेवाले हैं – जन सैलाब बन जन मानष के अन्तःकरण में बस गया। अच्छे दिन के विश्वास तले पूरे हिन्दुस्तान में सर्वोपरी नेता के रूप मे स्वीकृति मिली। पर,एक नेता से एक विचार बनने का सफरनामा यहाँ से शुरु हुई

मोदीजी ने अपने नेतृत्व से सरकारी योजनाओं में जन-भागीदारी बढ़ाकर अत्यधिक योजना को जन-आन्दोलन मे तब्दील कर दिये ।स्वच्छता अब सबों का हक एवं दायित्व बन गया। गंगा की सफाई जन जन की चेतना बन गई। नोटबंदी- कालाधन एवं भ्रष्टाचार- पर विरोधात्मक प्रतीक बन गया।

सबों का  हो  घर
हर घर में  बिजली
हर परिवार का हो खाता
बैंक हो गई अपनी।

कई दशकों तक जो सपना था, अब अपना होने लगा था। एक नई भारत की एक नई सुबह, मोदी मे हर जन, जन जन में मोदी सार्थक हो रहा था। पाँच साल बाद आज “मोदी” नाम प्रधानमंत्री से ज्यादा एक क्रांति का नाम है।

जन जन की चेतना का नाम है मोदी
बच्चों बच्चों का विश्वास है मोदी
संतों के आशीर्वाद का फल है मोदी
खेत खलिहान का छाव है मोदी
सेना प्रतिकार है मोदी
घर घर की पहचान है मोदी
हर भारतीयों की शान है मोदी

मोदी साहब वृद्ध होते जा रहे, पर मोदी नाम लोगों में उर्जा का संचार करता। मोदीजी सख्त प्रशासकीय छवि के है, पर इनका नाम बच्चों में नटखटपना प्रवास करवाता है। समर्थक हो, आलोचक हो या समालोचक हो, मोदीजी के ईतर “मोदी” नाम की लहर पर चर्चा की केन्द्रबिंदु रखते है। भारतीय राजनीतिक इतिहास मे पहली बार महिलाओं को भी रैली तक खींचा है तो मोदी के नाम ने। हर चायवाला खुद को मोदी और चौकीदार खुद मे मोदी देखने लगा है। मोदी नाम भारतीय जन -मानष की संघर्ष की कहानी बन चूका है। मोदी नाम की ध्वनि जन जन की आत्मा में बस चूका है शायद मोदी से बड़ा मोदी का नाम हो चूका है?

Imran Khan flunked in global geography

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Mixing two diverse borders together is nothing but a complete oversight. It was a slip of the tongue and not worth swallowing. An Indian sub-continent student can never accept Japan’s border siding with Germany. Only Turkey holds the advantage of staying in the map with Asia and Europe. As regards Japan, its international border does not stand with Germany which connects its border directly with France and other European countries. Japan is in news not only because of Pak PM’s flaw but an Indian was also elected MLA in that country.

This was not the first time he was flunked in geography. If we look at the Europe’s physical map, Japan is nowhere standing near Germany’s border. The continents are different; therefore it becomes crystal clear that these two countries cannot share borders in any manner. If Imran Khan can elucidate why the error on his part has taken place, what common sense causes the blunder. What intellect does it make to not to be bothered about mixing two different borders?

Definitely no rationale keeps going and uptight efforts to save him are entirely impractical. What was earlier stuck with the Congress party president Rahul Gandhi appears to have glued now with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan? Both have received education in England’s famous institutions of higher education but lack the basic bookish knowledge which their respective ancestors without doubt had received with much precision.

If Imran Khan had studied history at Oxford, Rahul Gandhi had also studied M. Phil at Cambridge. With the flawed familiarity in the subjects like geography, the history cannot be grasped accurately. He was given a benefit of doubt when he uttered Germany and Japan share an international border. He did not mention France in his speech. He heaves in the grey space between the two varied kinds of comprehension.

History requires the students to learn about the country’s geography too. But who cares when the proverb ulti ganga bahti hai verifies everything? There was a time when London-returned Indian barristers used to excel in their educational dexterity in the pre-independent sub-continent. However this notion seemed to have reversed now. Politicians in both the countries have proved that there was intense need of including requisite criterion of the educational qualification for being a contestant in the parliamentary elections after every five-year term.