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Irish Backstop haunts Britain

akashvani
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Irish Backstop haunts Britain

Among lost assembly for BJP and burning of Paris during the holiday season, you might have missed the UK Brexit Drama. But it is one piece of important foreign news story we must know.

Leave the financial/Business implication aside, for the movement. Let us discuss purely political drama that unfolded due to Northern Ireland.

Irish Independence Movement:

Ireland becomes part of the British empire in 1601 when Gaelic Ireland was finally defeated at the battle of Kinsale. The modern Irish independence movement rose when the Home Rule League was formed in 1870.

Irish War of Independence:

Ireland was mostly Catholic, whereas neighbouring Britain was mostly Protestant. After the General Election of 1918, Sinn Fein won heavily in Ireland and prompted for its independence. The elected MPs from Ireland also refused to seat in British Parliament. It further escalated into Irish War of Independence 1919-1921. In 1920 “The Government of Ireland Act” was passed by dividing Ireland into North and South.

Partition of Ireland:

Finally, in 6th Dec 1921 known as Anglo-Irish Treaty, a peace treaty was signed. This treaty recognized Ireland as a free state but also allowed Northern Ireland to opt out of free-state and remain part of Britain. In the Government of Ireland, Act passed in 1920 by the British a year earlier Northern Ireland was identified as a separate entity.

The rift between North and South:

Since independence, North and South took a different path forward. North remained unionist and wanted to remain in the UK. The rest of Ireland passed the Republic of Ireland Act 1948, completely separating it from the UK. It replaced the Head of state position from English King/Queen to Irish President.

Good Friday Agreement:

As you can see from the brief history of Independence of Ireland, British deed what they always do, divide and rule. But this doesn’t go down well with Irish People who wanted United Ireland. They kept up the fight for United Ireland.

In 1998 Good Friday Agreement was signed, ending hostility. It recognized that the Republic of Ireland want United Ireland, while some section of Irish people wants to live as a citizen of UK’. The Good Friday Agreement ended the decades-long violence by offering open border and free movement of Goods and people. This wasn’t a problem because both Ireland and UK were part of EU.

British obviously wanted to control Ireland by keeping a part of it. And they were successful till now. But then Brexit happened. And the past ghost of Ireland came back again.

Ireland Joined EU in 1973 along with the UK. Back then it was called EEC. So when it came to opening the border at the time of Good Friday Agreement in 1998, It wasn’t a big deal. Entire Europe was opening up.

But When Brexit happened among all the issues that were discussed; one of the prominent issues was strict border controls. Post-Brexit racism faced by many migrants in the UK was a major concern for British society in general. The public in the UK wanted a hard border, like what Donald Trump describing in the US, a wall, bob wire, security patrol, customs check post and all.

As the UK is an island that doesn’t seem to be a problem. It is cut off from Europe. And that’s where the ‘Northern Ireland’ comes in.

The Brexit Deal of Theresa May has something called “Irish Back Stop”. It states that “During the transitory period the UK will be part of European Common Market and Customs Union, but at the end of the transitory period, Northern Ireland may need to follow EU rules and have open border while rest of UK will follow its own rule and have closed border.”

In 2017 Theresa May took the general election and failed miserably. She lost her majority in the lower house (house of commons).  MPs of DUP from Northern Ireland supported her. Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is hardcore Pro-UK party which feels Northern Ireland must be parts of UK like England or Wels.

So you can understand their frustration when only Northern Ireland was singled out in the Brexit Deal. Irish Back Stop was actually made as insurance if, Britain and EU failed to come to an agreement. But it wasn’t acceptable for Irish MPs. Theresa May lost 3 motions in one day including unprecedented Contempt of Parliament motion brought against her government. May’s government is first in British history to stand as contempt of Parliament. This made Theresa May very worried and she promptly deferred the Brexit Deal vote. But this still does not calm the sentiment down. While Theresa May was travelling through Europe seeking any straw to clutch at, MPs from her own conservative party brought No confidence motion against her government. Theresa May has to literally sacrifice herself by declaring that she will resign before next election. This was the promise which saved the day for her government.

But still, the issue is not solved.  We are back to square one.

While DUP wants Hard Border like rest of UK, The Good Friday agreement recognizes Irish desire for United Ireland. If the UK accepts Back Stop, then DUP opposes it, and if it accepts Hard Border then the Republic of Ireland will oppose it. The UK also has commitments under Good Friday Agreement.

What’s more, the Back Stop provisions are very vaguely worded. And fear is that EU will still be able to impose its rule on the UK or at least in Northern Ireland even after Brexit. So Northern Ireland could be a separate entity for Legal and taxation purpose. While Theresa May wants a specific date for the end of Back Stop, Jean-Claude Juncker the European President said categorically that this is the only deal we offer to the UK.

It will be interesting to see how things pan out in near future, as UK and rest of the Europe clashes. This may end up breaking the UK. First Ireland might break away and next will be Scotland. We have to wait till March 2019 to find out.

The millennial disconnect: A growing concern for the BJP

Abhijeet Vyas
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The millennial disconnect: A growing concern for the BJP

The recent election results of the three states MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh might have showcased few chinks in the armour of the otherwise formidable BJP election machinery. One key factor which came out particularly in MP was the high polling % on NOTA, this choice is usually done by the “Millennial” voters which formed a substantial 18% voter base in MP. Vote share analysis further reveals that just an additional 4337 votes would have resulted in Mamaji returning to power a record 4th time in MP. There is a strong need to influence these millennial voters and, in a way, they interact and understand.

BJP since the previous LS selections has always had the edge on Social media against its rivals, but since 2015 I see a bit of complacency kicking in the Social media strategy of the BJP.  INC though once obsolete on social media is cleverly clawing their way in, slowly and steadily; an e.g. of the same is team Super londay being contacted by 8 INC teams after they created just one meme against PM Modi. A newspaper report in Bhaskar today clearly states that INC has staffed an “Attack Team” to create info-graphics, memes against claims by PM Modi and BJP. I am sure that the BJP social media cell might be coming up with a strategy to counter all this, but they are cutting it a bit too close for comfort.

Coming back to the case of Millennials, the BJP Social media has done very little to attract / influence this group. Take the example of MP, a voter born in 1999 would never understand the problems and pains that we as citizens of MP encountered in terms of Bijli, Sadak, Pani. As by the time, he/she got into an age to understand these things they have seen 24 x7 electricity, 4 lane roads and nonstop water. Therefore, how will this voter understand that this exemplary governance that they enjoyed has been only during the BJP rule; there was no attempt done to educate this voter group about the misrule during the Diggi raj. These voters assumed that such governance was a given as they had never seen the other side. This ignored demographic might have cost the BJP very dearly in these elections.

In the past 4 months, I did extensive interactions with this demographic in cities like Indore, Pune and Kolkata; I could draw these key inferences:

  1. Ram Mandir: Most of Millennials have bought the narrative set by the congress ecosystem/liberals about no need of a temple at the Ram Janmbhoomi and instead a Hospital /school should be built on the land. The narrative set up by the INC-led liberals is so strong that most of these folks believe that the entire dispute is BJP/RSS created. This is again due to lack of information /social media push on such sensitive issues by the BJP. The antecedents of movement are simply not known by many in this voter base and thus they get swayed by the liberal stories
  2. 370: Again, serious information gap, there is absolutely no information in terms of a “quick read” that these millennials can refer. The narrative currently available again turns them more towards the liberal side 
  1. Scams: Most of the millennials that I interacted with have no clue about Bofors, CWG, 2G, AgustaWestland, Dewas ISRO scam
  1. Modi Government’s Scheme: The brilliant schemes launched under this NDA government does not have the necessary outreach in terms of information to this demographic. They simply don’t know about these schemes 

Since this Millennial crowd has no benchmark or limited information across these varied topics, this inclines them more towards either choosing “NOTA” as an option or believe in the liberal narrative of “All political parties are alike” and thus vote for any other party apart from the BJP. Do note, NOTA played a big role in the BJP loss in Karnataka and MP, recently.

What I am trying to imply here is very simple, BJP Social medial cell needs to introduce across all social media platforms namely Facebook, Instagram and twitter these “Quick reads” or “Chasers” which showcase all this information and are able to capture the attention of these millennial’s and quickly dissipate this information. This will become a strong counter-narrative to the propaganda been spread by the Congress ecosystem.

The BJP Social media leadership need to realize the importance of this demographic and ignoring them would be at their own peril.  Till 2015, We had a razor edge Social media strategy; I believe the razor has lost a bit of its edge time to sharpen it again. Not all is lost, but then again sometimes a little bit of delay can be a bit too late.

In the Hindi heartland, BJP is down but not out

G Indira
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In the Hindi heartland, BJP is down but not out

The recent 5-state assembly elections ended with surprising results upsetting the speculation of exit polls. Congress and BJP locked horns in the three major states of Hindi/Hindu heartland: Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. BJP lost Chhattisgarh hands down as the farmers were lured by the high loan-waiver and other tall promises to alleviate the farmers’ distress, jobs for the youth and other doles to the people by Congress. Being in opposition one can show the moon to grab power.

Being in power for so long, having been blessed to be the Chief Minister for three consecutive terms to be in power by the people, Shri Raman Singh knew the practical problems of such promises to be carried out. As a hardcore ideologue of BJP, the (former) CM did what he could in his capacity while in the ruling. After a long period of one-party rule in the state, the voter-fatigue had set-in coupled with it the enticement of sops by Congress that are sky-high, the voters have been drawn to the new face and new rule.

Coming to Rajasthan, the defeat in the state was a foregone conclusion by the media. So it was not a shocker for many. Yet the BJP had given a tough fight leaving Congress only to scrape through. The last leg of the Rajasthan campaign was no-holds-barred with all BJP machinery and its tall leaders in place for a carpet bombing campaign. However, the aspirations of the people in the desert-state, always oscillate like a pendulum from one party to other for fulfilment in each election. So, they alternate every five years to see their minimal lives get a maximal illume. Every government falls short of its promises that are made during their election campaign, so is their drubbing in the next, especially in Rajasthan as the terrain of the state happens to be dry though people are hardworking.

Madhya Pradesh is an ideological bastion of BJP from its Jana Sangh days. Here BJP gave a neck and neck fight with Congress. Again the Chief Minister there, Shri Shivraj Singh Chouhan though an approachable humble and modest leader could not cut much ice with people to bring big margins for BJP’s victory. His long innings, unfulfilled promises, agrarian distress had set sunset to his rule. The opposition Congress, showing a kind of (partially) unified face of their leaders (Kamal Nath, Jyothiraditya Scindia, Digvijaya Singh et.al) could take the power by a low score. Congress is the principal opposition party took the maximum mileage out of the unfulfilled dreams of the people. It beat the Hindutva party in its own game by promising to sell refined and bottled ‘gau mutra’ and arranging a gaushala (shelter for cows) in each hamlet. Added to this, the party president, Shri Rahul Gandhi’s embrace of Hinduism.

Every government though makes great promises to people before elections, has its limitations in power, so the ousting of the incumbent government has become a new normal. There are various reasons for Telangana state election result being pro-incumbent. The main factor was the support of Muslim vote-bank which was huge in number. Next, Asaddudin Owaisi of the AIMIM backed K Chandrasekhar Rao to the hilt for the kind of benefits he had granted and delivered to Muslims during his tenure and for also the promise of 12% reservations to the community. By giving incentives to Muslims, he saw to it that he did not deprive the Hindus either. He bisected Hindus into castes and given them their due by doling out some petty thing or the other. His policy of giving sops includes to an extent the poor among the upper castes also whether they reached the beneficiaries or not is unknown. His distribution of goodies, in any case, throws the state into a deep debt-trap. It doesn’t matter to him. Of course, that’s another story for another day.

K Chandrasekhar Rao aka KCR is a staunch Hindu, follows Hindu rituals and does Yagnas (havans) in public glare. He is a good orator. A revolutionary leader of Telangana with multiple talents to appeal people in the region in place, BJP could not take on him at the present juncture. In any case, local BJP leaders are a spent-force with no fighting spirit. The lone BJP MLA, who won and got reelected in the election this time around is Raja Singh, a strong backer of Hindu cause and could take on the Muslim atrocities in the old city of Hyderabad head-on that got appreciation by the local people of the area for him to win. The result in the small tiny state – Mizoram of the northeast, is as expected. Naturally, they voted for a Christian dominated MNF party.

Government after government in India, be it in the Centre or state, is facing the same problems viz. agrarian distress, employment for youth and better infrastructural facilities. People, in general, are not wishing for mere survival. They are seeking for a better survival with better roads, strong uninterrupted power supply and clean drinking water. In a country with a continental population, it seems, it’s a hope against hope for a drastic change of condition. The BJP government at the Centre has been trying hard to give ‘all’ and could succeed to an extent on electricity, roads and solar energy front. Even for farmers, the party is advocating for a better technology- support. It is also trying to move them to urban areas for employment as farming is not a lucrative job any more. As farmers got used to their work and environs they are unable to shift to new pastures and unknown work conditions. Similarly, as the government jobs are scarce and shrinking, the BJP government at the Centre wanted to promote entrepreneurial skills in the youth so that they could find themselves by doing business on their own and provide jobs to others.

To meet this end, the Govt. Provided ease of business plans and tax incentives also. The start of ‘Make In India’ program is one such endeavour though unfortunately, it did not take a big leap. However, they tried to improve the skills of youth in many ways for their self-employment. The cushy government jobs, now, no government of any party could afford any more. The policies DEMO and GST though the government has done with an intention to streamline the economy, they have their own shortcomings.

The subtle underpinning to Congresses’ victory is the reformulation of its policy of secularism that earlier undermined the majority Hindu community. Rahul Gandhi, all of a sudden, became an ardent Hindu shedding his party image of pro-Muslim. BJP, on the other hand, tried to shed a bit of its Hindu exclusivist party image to include and accommodate minorities to have a pan India appeal. This can be said by the party’s reluctance to take up Ramjanmabhoomi issue (the cause that had catapulted it to a major power in politics) with a sufficient passion. More than the temple in place, the party should view it as honoring its long standing commitment given to people, mainly the Hindus who are its core-vote base. The sooner the party finds a solution, the better. Then the 2019 is a smooth sail.

Politics of arrogance or arrogance of politics

Fayaz Ganie
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Politics of arrogance or arrogance of politics

Democracy believes in moderation, consensus, reconciliation and deliberation. There is no place for arrogance in democracy, arrogance which keeps the players of politics away from the tributes and attributes of real representative democracy. Arrogance in democracy or politics blurs the lines between this form of governance from autocracy, totalitarianism and dictatorships. Arrogance in politics is a bad attribute, a degeneration of democracy and a harmful trend if it becomes a trend.

In the Indian context arrogance of power is even more harmful considering the geographic and demographic dimensions of the country along with the natural divisionary problems like communalism, regional aspirations, casteism and criminalization of social and related fields of life. But unfortunately, arrogance is displayed by one or the other player in national and regional politics of the country. And unlike elsewhere arrogance in India is not shown by only those in power but also by their opponents.

It is not easily understood why these political players show arrogance when they can gain much more by showing humility. The people and the electorate of the country like humility and human consideration displayed towards them, all those who do that are sure to get greater favours out of their opinions and inclinations. Why then political players of the country display arrogance once they gain power, or lose power, and authority is beyond ordinary cognition and comprehension.

Or, are these players in the realm of politics only to be arrogant. Is being arrogant an objective, aim and goal of their political careers? This is can be the one reason to showing arrogance but when the players know that the arrogance each time is counterproductive for the arrogant, in politics or otherwise, why then there should be arrogance?

Leaving this unending volley of questions aside it is clearly explicit from the real politics in India that almost all the players display arrogance. The arrogance is with the Congress and the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) also displays arrogance along with the other national and regional parties. That is the reason the leaders of these parties fall short of being statesmen. This single trait robs the leaders from taking their place in the national polity, and perhaps at the international stage as well.

An interesting thing about the arrogance of the political players in Indian politics is that even if power is lost, authority is lost or politics itself is lost but the arrogance remains. Those who lost power after the BJP’s resounding victory in 2014 elections refused to give up their arrogance and started calling names, and taunting Prime Minister Narendra Modi while using his antecedents as the pretext. The antecedents were the be all and end all of judging him, not his performance as the Prime Minister.

It was expected from the opponents to acknowledge the victory of the BJP like real brave men and judge the Prime Minister by the work that he was going to perform and performed in the office but that is not the case.

On the similar lines before that, the treatment that the people from the BJP meted to the Ex-Prime Minister of India Dr. Manmohan Singh was no different. They never acknowledged the role and contribution that the Ex- Prime Minister had made towards the governance of the country. He was taunted as an effigy whose strings were somewhere else, and was controlled by someone else.

Daily on our television screens what we witness the most is the display of arrogance and irresponsible behaviours. The spokespersons of different political parties instead of discussing the real issues that are beset with the politics and governance of the country indulge in a game of arrogance where the arrogance of power is countered by the arrogance of the hurt of defeat. To keep these arrogances intact the spokespersons can go to any extent.

As for as the media of the country is concerned they make full use of this arrogance They make it as a measure to improve their Television Rating Points (TRPs). Their questions and interviews are directed to strike the egos and arrogances of the parties and people. Once struck there is noise, there is entertainment and there is sensationalism and that is what the media wants

All the issue of the country is discussed and decided in the television studios instead of the institutions of governance to which they actually belong. Discussing the issues is no problem but the problem is when they are decided in the television studios. Here again, it is the arrogance of the politicians which provides the anchors of the shows leverage to decide things for the country

The people belonging to the government, to satisfy their arrogance, want to show that they are doing all and there is no best platform for them than media and the opposition, to satisfy their arrogance, wants to show that they are opposing the government and for them also there is no better place than the media. The Parliaments, the Legislative Assemblies and the institutions of bureaucracy and that of the judiciary are not given their due importance and their due share of work.

After the results of the assembly elections of the five states were declared. The political parties instead of showing the maturity of acknowledging each other, and each other’s positions, they again were displaying arrogance, the winners were showing the arrogance of gaining power and the losers of refusal to acknowledge the victories and realizing their defeats. Real undemocratic traits!

Indian democracy is now more than seven decades old. Now is the time to show that democracy is a matured one. The maturity of the democracy should be displayed in the behaviour of the political players and parties, not in their arrogance. Arrogance can never be an instrument of showing maturing.

The country is heading for the 2019 Parliamentary Elections and the clash of arrogance is going harsher with each passing day. Not a good omen for the simple reason that instead of showing their performance and making their manifestoes to do the talking to achieve electoral gains they are engaged in a game of arrogance. The one who displays this more vehemently considers himself or herself as the champion of India politics.

The political parties should ponder over their behavior and there should be some pondering at the side of the people as well. The former should behave like the mature politicians of a mature democracy and for the latter; they should realize that who is really interested in alleviating their problems and who is showing arrogance.

The people should elect only the deserving ones and the arrogant need to be shown the door out. No one among the arrogant should remain after 2019 in the Indian politics. I seem too idealistic and let it be.

BJP must have a credible story to sell to their voters

sudip47
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BJP must have a credible story to sell to their voters

Two things to note in this election are that 1) BJPs campaign was primarily built on the past sins committed by Congress/UPA, which was forgotten by most voters. And 2) The urban voters largely middle class who were earlier mostly preferring BJP, did this time opt for Congress as the results in the urban centres largely show. So, BJP needs to assuage its core base, the salaried classes, the middle-income office goer, the traders – and do that fast.

On the whole, one thing that the Hindi Heartland election has proved is that Modi magic is no longer working enough to carry BJP on its shoulder alone. Modi govt. is now held responsible for non-delivery of its promises. The main accusations against it are negligence of farming or agriculture, middle class, joblessness and Hindu agenda.

Across Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, farmers spoke of low minimum support prices, rising input costs and losses that have built year on year. Some angrily recall Modi’s promise to double farm wages by 2022. While agriculture has no doubt suffered on account of consecutive droughts, the govt. has taken many measures to ameliorate the sufferings of farmers. in areas of crop yield and input subsidies, procurement and support prices, improving access to credit, technologies and markets, food security systems and rural employment programs. However, the results are not yet visible and the voters’ perception reflects this.

So, the NDA govt. at the centre must do more and Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) that help the agricultural sector deal with weather shocks, and allow farmers to minimize risk through insurance, can be a crucial helping hand.

On job front also, there have been many schemes launched. While there has been considerable job creation in the organized sector, the unorganized sector and SMEs have reportedly suffered very much mainly due to demonetization and GST. Again, the voters did not apparently see many jobs that have been created.

The BJP has done practically nothing to promote a Hindu agenda so far, and many supporters including its foot-soldiers from VHP and RSS are not particularly pleased about being ignored for most of the past four-and-a-half years and now being called to put their shoulders to the wheel. There is a lot of ruffled feathers to be smoothened.

Also, there was extremely high local anti-incumbency against its MLAs. Several names in the party have been contesting since the 1990s when the party grew in stature in the state. Times have changed, voter profile has changed, but the representative face has not. The party changed only about 25 per cent of its sitting MLAs – this was very much inadequate.

During the campaign for 2014 elections, BJP also made two tall promises. One, Ache Din and two, anti-corruption drive. Ache din was simply a reference to better economic management towards which it has brought a wide range of policies ranging from agriculture to innovation in the fields of science and technology. But oil prices rose due to external factors. So, all these need to be conveyed.

On corruption, there has not been a single case of conviction except that of Laloo Yadav in this BJP regime. Thus, promises of bringing to book of all these culprits have not been fulfilled. The pending cases, therefore, need to be expedited. Modi Govt has worked on three-pronged strategy – strengthen the institution and make them capable of self-remedy, reduce corruption in public and private lives and investigate some big-ticket corruption cases involving powerful politicians like P Chidambaram and the Gandhi Family of Congress. But people have to be convinced that the corrupt will be punished.

BJP is losing the perception battle and it needs to get a fresh communication strategy put into place. It needs a team that specializes in this job and they surely need to train up their cadres to enable them to communicate clearly to the voters the relevant achievements of the govt.

Be that as it may, Modi made promises regarding jobs, corruption, development etc. Now, with a full term, he is being questioned on delivery. Going ahead, the BJP will need to think of substantive measures to address the above problems, much before the general election and thereby build a credible story to sell to the electorate.

December blues and BJP

OliveGreens09
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December blues and BJP

December 11 was the most awaited moment in recent Congress history, more precisely since the May 2014 rout which continued unabated till Exit Polls soon after the December 7 Elections started predicting a more comfortable future and perhaps a turnaround in the fortunes of Congress as a political party and Rahul Gandhi as its President.

Prior to these predictions, Rahul had faced an unprecedented 28 electoral defeats starting exactly five years ago with the elections to these very States of Hindi heartland. The advent of Modi as the PM aspirant for the BJP coincided with the worsening fortunes of both Congress Party and the Gandhis. Modi Juggernaut was first witnessed in these States with both MP and Chhattisgarh giving an absolute majority for the Third term consecutively to the BJP and Rajasthan giving the most comprehensive electoral victory ever to the BJP.

The Modi-Shah combination then went on to script the most successful political combines ever in the political spectrum of India. Before December 11, BJP ruled over more than two dozen States and on the verge of making good its slogan Congress Mukt Bharat a distinctly possible political reality but alas not to be. Political cookies crumble faster than you can imagine, it is the inherent nature of the game where you cannot predict the outcome of your most diligently worked on issues.

The December results are in effect a turning point in the the way 2019 Elections will be fought. BJP has lost power in all the three States it held power for various reasons albeit it still throws light on the way forward for all the political parties in the fray. Except for Chhattisgarh, where Congress has notched up an impressive victory both in terms of assembly seats and the vote share, same can’t be said of both Rajasthan to a certain extent and MP to a greater extent

In fact, the the difference in seats in Rajasthan is BJP 73 and Congress 99, Congress has 26 more than the BJP but the resultant vote share is BJP 38.8% and Congress 39.2%, a mere .4% has given Congress 26 more seats in the Assembly. Interestingly, Shivraj Singh who was facing a Triple Anti Incumbency has fared much better speaks of his good work in MP. BJP has 109 assembly seats to Congress tally of 114, but it has a slightly higher voteshare. Congress has 41.1% and BJP 41.2% !

Rajasthan has over the last two decades or so consistently followed the practice of changing the incumbent government every elections, but the Devil lies in the details. When BJP last lost the assembly elections in 2008 it notched up an impressive 78 seats but in 2013 when Congress lost the previous elections it came out with a paltry 21 seats which didn’t even allow it to have a LoP in the House. On December 11, BJP lost the election but still managed a decent 73, while Congress forming governments in 2008 and 2018 has been found short of a majority on both the occasions, BJP had been voted in both 2003 and 2013 with the brute majority.
MP has proved to be real BJP bastion in recent decades, it is primarily due to its hardworking and humble CM, Shivraj Singh has pulled out MP from the category of BIMARU States, the agricultural growth rate has been among the highest in the country. His implementation of central schemes like Ujjwala Yozna and Awas Yozna are among the best in the country. And still, he finds himself on the losing side is worth pondering.

The Congress has succeeded in building up the perception that Modi government is anti- Farmer, the agrarian distress due to falling food prices worldwide has added to the crisis. The trend of falling food prices has agitated farmers from France to Latin America, India which is still a developing economy, where more than 40% of its population depends on agriculture for subsistence could not be any better. It is not the Congress alone which mananges the Perception Building, it has become an important tool in the political lexicon and is used extensively by both political and apolitical players.

The fact that inspite of raising the MSP of foodgrains to the maximum BJP suffered losses of rural seats points to a larger malaise, farm sector needs major reforms which the government has hesitated to pay attention to, the failure of Land Bill in the Parliament has added woes to the conditions. It is impossible for agriculture to sustain such a large population, the burden has to be reduced and there lies the solution, not so simple but definitely to begin with.

Already eulogies over the emergence of Rahul Gandhi as the most potent opposition to Modi is being regurgitated by the captive media. Tomes are being written on his miraculous powers to restore the primacy of Congress as the leading power in the country. Not so surprisingly, Pratap Bhanu Mehta, wearing many hats has gone overboard, ecstatically proclaiming a New Dawn in his periodic ramblings in an Indian Express editorial.

The losses though natural in the political arena are being touted as a rout of BJP and inevitable fading of Modi Magic , the snide remarks by certain sections of media on invincibility, aura, and sustainability are all too evident of the fear which Modi evokes in the opposition.
Does this sound like some impending disaster for the BJP in the General Elections Of 2019 ?

Definitely a Big No but surely a call to restrategise its policies. Even as analysts pour over the results there has been some disquiet in the Urban areas in all the three States which went to polls recently. It is the residual effect of both very momentous decisions, the Demonetisation and the implementation of GST, the Goods and Services Tax and is reflected in the results of the assembly elections.

Rahul Gandhi was quick to pounce upon it in his brief press conference after the victory. He especially mentioned farmers, small traders and the youth , another section of the population which is aspirational is the Youth. The job sector hasn’t seen the kind of employment opportunities which were promised by Modi government. Even though, the Self Employment schemes under various agencies including the MUDRA Yozna has seen exponential growth it hasn’t been able to change the perception. Rahul and the Congress has been better at managing this vital tool of politics.

Small Traders, for the longest time, have been the traditional BJP supporters. GST has left a lot to desire, the paperwork has led to difficulties in effective implementation, in fact, the problem lies at the doorsteps of the traders, they are chary of paying taxes is a well known fact and the GST has put a curb on the rampant tax evasion is evident from the revenues begotten by the government since rolling out the GST.
Non registered traders find it near impossible to trade which has led to some discontent and was subsequently reflected in the apathy of the Urban Voters.

Central government needs to be quick to address the impending issues besides a dose of emotional appeal has the flavour to change the parameters of the General Elections. PThe M must shrug off any despondency if at all to re-energise the cadres. Mahagathbandhan seems like a far off mirage in view of this show by the Congress, it will not be ready to split the pie with likes of BSP and SP in the Hindi heartland.

While, Mamta would be vary of any alliance with the Congress in Bengal, only one who seems more than eager is Chandrababu Naidu who’s more a liability than an asset or perhaps the perennial Party Hopper, Ajit Singh…

Rukhmabai – Child Bride, India’s 1st Woman Doctor, Women’s Rights Revolutionist

Dr Somdutta
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Rukhmabai – Child Bride, India’s 1st Woman Doctor, Women’s Rights Revolutionist

“It seems to me that it would be a barbarous, a cruel, a revolting thing to do to compel a young lady to go to a man whom she dislikes, in order that he may cohabit with her against her will.” On September 21, 1885, an extraordinary judgment with these words was delivered by Justice Pinhey of the Bombay High Court in a suit for restitution of conjugal rights. He was pronouncing his judgement on the Dadaji Bhikaji and Rukhmabai case where the former, had filed a suit asking for the Court to compel his wife of 11 years, Rukhmabai, to go to his house so that he may consummate his marriage. But, Rukhmabai, now 22 had firmly objected to ratifying his demand, a person highly unsupportive of the very idea of women’s education. She was fearless and valiant when she contested her husband’s claim to conjugal rights in the iconic case that led to the passage of the Age of Consent Act in 1891. This gutsy, determined woman then went on to study medicine in London and became India’s first practising woman doctor in 1894.

Born at a time when women weren’t allowed to talk, had to have their faces buried underneath foot long veils and barely exercise any rights, here was Rukhmabai Bhimrao Raut, for when she raised her voice, she defied taboos and paved a path of her own. I am a women’s rights advocate and a vocal campaigner for their equality and justice, internet-savvy, internationally-interacting and the next-generation of young women. But, from more than a millennium ago, here’s a story that takes us back to a time when a fresh, vibrant new strand of women’s liberation was progressively probing its roots in colonial India and women were up in arms fighting for the rights of the oppressed gender, the fairer sex.

Clad in the quintessential saree, Rukhmabai had risen despite all odds and little support. I now know why Eleanor Roosevelt has rightly said, “A woman is like a tea bag—you never know how strong she is until she gets in hot water.” During an era when girls were confined within the four walls of their houses, especially the kitchen because education was not important for them, Rukhmabai went to a foreign land to achieve a degree in medicine unthinkable by a woman only to come back to practice in the land that had ostracized her. Battling the risks while practising medicine in a society reigned by the patriarch, Rukhmabai also started her journey as an activist against child marriage and women’s suffering. Discouraged at every step and angered, she had once written, “This wicked practice of child marriage has destroyed the happiness of my life. It comes between me and the things which I prize above all others – study and mental cultivation.”

This woman deserves unparalleled respect for being the guiding light of women’s rights in deeply conservative, colonial India. She tolerated humiliation and trauma but what she had in her was the indomitable bravery and determination to study, and eventually became a social activist fighting for women of all times.

Well, all said and done, that was an era ago, why am I telling you this today? How much has India’s education system really changed? Rukhmabai had to go overseas to attain education only because the system here was fragmented. Even today, the number of Indian students going abroad to pursue their higher education has been snowballing year on year. Foreign colleges offer ease of admission as opposed to the highly competitive process in India’s top-ranked institutes. Foreign colleges offer a rich variety of courses as opposed to the Indian education that is highly focused on delivering popular STEM courses. Just a few years ago there was a huge gap in India’s education system. Only over the last 4 years, have we witnessed how huge impetus is being given to education. Education is not being viewed as classroom knowledge and restricted to mere books, but also aiming to build an individual’s character, be part of the aspirations of the nation. For our strong governance, education is to enable balanced growth of every dimension of a human being, which is not possible without innovation.

Then again, we cannot solely leave the onus of building and improving India’s educational infrastructure on the government. If we have to be global citizens in a global village, we have to innovate and attain wholesome education. We should never forget what Swami Vivekananda, Dr Bhimrao Ambedkar, Deen Dayal Upadhya and Ram Manohar Lohia fought for – character-building over literacy!

Also, over the last 4 years, under a rock-solid leadership at the helm, women’s rights have been at the fore. India’s Apex Court has been passing landmark judgment after judgment and slaughtering draconian pre-historic law after law that has suppressed women for aeons. Take the triple talaq or instant divorce for instance or the law that now permits young women to enter a celebrated temple in South India. Women in India are progressing in every field and they prove that nothing is impossible for women if they have a strong will. We’re anxiously longing for the regeneration of India, building a new India, a shinier India, but in the words of Swami Vivekananda, if we do not better the condition of our women, there’s no hope for our well-being. Otherwise, we will remain as backward as we are now.

Despite women being intelligent, educated and opinionated alongside today’s movements such as #MeToo and Time’s Up, the millions of Rukhmabais across the world are today fighting against the patriarchy and its prejudices that blemish our society. It is sure is a tough feat to pull off. 120 years ago when Rukhmabai started this fight, she barely had support, yet she emerged victoriously. It was a lonely battle she fought bravely on behalf of all of us and it only intensified the fact the roots of Patriarchy go so deep in our society that even 120 years of struggle and fight were not enough to uproot them.

Women rights have been hard fought across the world and there is a lot more ground to cover. But, as we do so, it is important to remember the sacrifices and fights of women like Rukhmabai – who were trailblazers and torchbearers at a time when women rights ceased to exist.

Why Congress has lost the Assembly Elections of 2018 despite winning numerically

Saurabh Garg
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Why Congress has lost the Assembly Elections of 2018 despite winning numerically

In recently concluded assembly elections, Congress has won all the three states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. However, it lost in two states of Telangana and Mizoram, its last bastion in North East. Much has already been written about the performance of Congress and BJP across all the states. But there is a need for more detailed analysis before the conclusions in the state of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are arrived at.

Rajasthan

Below graph shows the number of seats won or lost by both the parties in the assembly elections of 2013 and 2018.

Observations:

1. In a state like Rajasthan which alternatively votes for Congress and BJP every 5 years, BJP even though lost in 2018 has won 73 seats, 52 seats more than what was won by Congress in 2013 when it lost the election. This suggests the popularity of work done by the Raje government in the state. This also proves the ‘Modi Factor’ as his last-minute rallies turned the tide in favour of BJP to the extent that it could reach a respectable tally.

2. The seat difference between both parties is about 26 in 2018 elections as BJP got 73 seats and Congress 99. This does not match the difference in voting percentage for both parties as both of them have got almost similar votes of 38% as shown in the table above. This suggests that people of Rajasthan voted equally for both the parties. But the difference in numbers of seats won shows the very small winning margin in many seats. This is quite possible for an incumbent government going for polls.

3. Local Congress leaders have tried fanning the issues like Anand Pal Singh Encounter, Padmawat which caused discontentment among Rajputs against BJP. They also tried raising the issue of Reservations of JAT community which form a major chunk of the electoral population of the state. But this didn’t help them. The hotbed of Jat Community in Rajasthan is Bharatpur seat which voted Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal to power there.

4. In fact, this, on the contrary, shows that BJP didn’t lose big because there was less anger among people towards the BJP policies. Rather, it appears that BJP wasn’t able to project its policies and their achievements properly to the people.

Most importantly, Congress not crossing 100 mark and BJP reaching 73 shows that Congress despite the internal strife in BJP Rajasthan unit and a massive anti-incumbency wave against Vasundhara Raje could not encash upon these factors. This also suggests that people voted to Congress to mark their protest against Vasundhara Raje and not for the Congress party.

Madhya Pradesh

Below graph shows the number of seats won or lost by both the parties in the assembly elections of 2013 and 2018.

Observations:

1. In a state like Madhya Pradesh which had a BJP chief minister going for polls after 15 years of rule, it is hardly a win for Congress as It could merely get 5 seats more than him. BJP got 109 seats whereas Congress got 114 seats.

2. Ironically for Congress Party President Rahul Gandhi, BJP got more votes than Congress in M.P. as seen in the vote percentage of both the parties. (See the table above)

3. BJP Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan’ policies and development work can be seen on ground zero throughout his tenure. Last time in 2013, when he won after 10 years of rule, he got 107 seats more than Congress. Even this time in 2018, he got more votes (41%) than Congress (40.9%). Thus, BJP lost not due to lack of development but despite the development.

4. NOTA Voting Percentage also looks to have played some role in Madhya Pradesh. Many traditional voters of BJP have pressed NOTA because it had some discontentment due to SC/ST Amendment Act and BJP’s apathy to the upper-class community. It didn’t vote for BJP but it didn’t choose the Congress either. But, this ultimately helped Congress only.

5. Interestingly, the false narrative of Agrarian distress as painted by Rahul Gandhi fell flat in Mandsaur where BJP won 7 out of 8 seats here. Thus, Congress may have won numerically, but it could not fool the voters in M.P., neither It could defeat Shivraj Singh Chauhan in the way it should have after 15 years of anti-incumbency.

Chhattisgarh

Below graph shows the number of seats won or lost by both the parties in the assembly elections of 2013 and 2018.

Observations:

1. The most surprising results for BJP are in the state of Chhattisgarh where it had as popular a leader as Chief Minister Raman Singh who has transformed the state in 15 years. The capital of the state Naya Raipur is a model worth replicating in the country.

2. In the state of Chhattisgarh, Congress can claim some achievements but not for the rallies of Rahul Gandhi. But there are other reasons for it.

3. Voter Fatigue which played a role to some extent in Madhya Pradesh played a large role in Chhattisgarh as Raman Singh, BJP Chief Ministerial candidate was going for polls after 15 years of his rule, similar to a situation in M.P.

4. The biggest factor that looks to have turned the tide here is Rahul Gandhi’s promise to waive the farmer’s loans within 10 days of coming to government. Reportedly, after this promise, farmers stopped paying the instalments of their loans.

5. Tribal areas of Chhattisgarh couldn’t be mobilised by BJP despite many development schemes of Modi government like Jagdalpur airport in Bastar region and speedy implementation of FRA Act 2006 by Raman Singh Government.

6. In Chhattisgarh, Voter fatigue and more focus of BJP on industrial development than rural-agrarian economy looks to have produced these results.

Conclusion

The results of assembly elections may give a fresh lease of life to Congress President Rahul Gandhi. But they may be very delusional too, as explained above, BJP has not lost because of lack of development but despite the development across all three states. There were strong factors like anti-incumbency, voter fatigue and NOTA vote percentage along with some local issues as highlighted above which helped Congress win the elections in these three states. But these factors may not play the same role in upcoming Lok Sabha Elections of 2019 when People of India will vote to elect the Prime Minister of India.

People need to ensure Modi Govt does not end up like Vajpayee Govt thereby giving power to corrupt Gandhis

rraz
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People need to ensure Modi Govt does not end up like Vajpayee Govt thereby giving power to corrupt Gandhis

We elected Narendra Modi as Prime Minister in 2014 to get rid of the massive corruption, scam and loot committed by the then UPA government under Dr Manmohan Singh, remote controlled by Sonia Gandhi for 10 years. This UPA government was elected by dethroning the progressive NDA government under Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Even after performing well on the development front, building roads, improving the economy and even securing the country’s borders from terrorism exported by a hostile nation, Pakistan, Vajpayee government could not come back to power.

Atal Bihari Vajpayee, in his six years tenure, revived the Indian economy after it faced derailment during the Congress government led by PM Narasimha Rao and then Finance Minister Manmohan Singh. It was Atal Bihari Vajpayee Govt which propelled Indian GDP growth at over 8 per cent.

After assuming office in 1998, Atal Bihari Vajpayee revived the almost dead & static Telecom Sector by opening it up to private players from the monopoly of the government-owned telecom companies which infused life in this moribund sector. The telecom sector that has flourished today and mobile phone reached to almost every person in India is a gift of Vajpayee’s telecom policy.

It requires no reminder that India’s most famous highway project was built by Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The Golden Quadrilateral, the North-South and the East-West Corridor were launched by him in 2001 to construct 4/6 lane highways between top four metro cities Delhi, Chennai, Mumbai & Kolkata and from Kanyakumari to Srinagar and Silchar to Porbandar. 

In 1998, Vajpayee Govt revisited Pokhran with five nuclear explosions to secure the country’s border and create deterrence against China and Pakistan which were amassing nuclear weapons at that time. Apart from defence, the Vajpayee government launched the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan to give a boost to school education and check to drop out rates which came down by 60% in just 5 years. Many of us still remember the inspiring video ad “School Chalen Hum” created to promote this scheme.

Even after all these achievements, the then Atal Bihari Vajpayee failed to come back to power and its “Shining India” failed to impress the common man which in turn handed over the power to Sonia Gandhi controlled UPA Govt. In ten years tenure, this UPA Govt scammed in almost every sector and segment. Corruption was all-time high. Public money was looted in lakhs of crores. And our nation earned a ‘most corrupt nation’ tag globally. 

Finally, people realized to replace this corrupt UPA Govt and bring someone honest and hardworking who had the vision to do something for the nation and take it forward towards development & progress. In 2014, Narendra Modi was elected for the top post. In his 4.5 years tenure, he has performed tremendously well in various front. His govt started from where Atal Bihari Vajpayee left. Not worrying for votes, Modi Govt took about 30 major decisions in just four years which any other government could not be able to do in 30 years & very tough decisions were taken like implementation of GST, Demonetization, Surgical Strikes, etc. and public welfare schemes like Pahal Yojna, Awas Yojna, Ayushman Bharat, Swachh Bharat etc. are brought in.

Sensing sure defeat to this hardworking & honest PM Modi, Congress has unleashed its tried and tested mischievous and poisonous weapon to dislodge Modi from the centre. To some extent, they have tasted success at the recently concluded Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh polls. 

Congress and its well-oiled Eco-system consisting the Left, the Urban Naxals, the Lutyen Media, the Congress-friendly Bollywood personalities, Youtubers, Stand up Comedians and the intellectuals are continuously spreading lies, brainwashing & instigating the common public using various tools and platforms to create divisions across the country on the basis of language, regional sentiments, caste, community, religion, etc. In every State, their agents have successfully organized riots, protests and mass rallies to engage the common man fight among each other. They have successfully diverted the attention from developments to local and narrow issues fueling emotional outbreaks among people. They are even encouraging Pro-Modi voters to cast their vote for NOTA which will directly help Congress. 

Congress has a history of ruling the country for 54 years without been away from power for more than five years consecutively. Only Atal Bihari Vajpayee could remain in power for 6 years  64 days. So remaining in power is an obsession for Congress party. They use every tricks and tactic to get hold of the Delhi’s chair. They can now go to any extent to remove PM Narendra Modi in 2019. They have been aggressively working towards its goal. They have created unrest in every state & spreading lies against Modi Govt. 

Congress President, Rahul Gandhi, bluntly lying to the country in the Rafale Deal. Even after the Hon’ble has Supreme Court cleared Modi Govt of any corruption charges in the Rafale Deal in a court-monitored probe, Rahul Gandhi has again levelled false allegation against PM Narendra Modi with his rhetoric lies “Chowkidaar Chor Hai”. Mr Gandhi who himself in on bail in the National Herald Scam shamelessly spreading lies, even rejecting the Supreme Court’s verdict. This shows how desperate Congress party and Rahul Gandhi are for power. Now it is up to the people of this country to decide whether they want to give Narendra Modi another chance or defeat him in 2019 like they did with former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 2004 and handed over the power to the corrupt Gandhi Family. 

The Ramchandra Guha Column: Why BJP lost in the Hindi heartland

Pankaj Vaidya
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The Ramchandra Guha Column: Why BJP lost in the Hindi heartland

In this guest column for myvoice.opindia, eminent historian and intellectual Ramchandra Guha explain the reasons why the BJP lost elections in the Hindi heartland.

So, the assembly elections to the 5 states have concluded and as I had expected, the BJP lost in the Hindi heartland. There are many reasons put around for the defeats like demonetization, GST, agrarian distress etc. But none of these arguments passes the intellectual test. So using my expertise as a historian and intellectual, let me explain.

Modi is the reason the BJP lost. Narendra Modi seeks to make his party, his government, his administration and his country into an extension of his personality. He has a chappan inch chaati — a 56-inch chest — as he loudly boasts, and therefore all other men must bow down to his power and his authority. Mr Modi’s desire to dominate is manifest in his manner of speaking. You have only to listen to him for 15 minutes to know that this is a man who will push aside anyone who comes in his way.

To make his party into an extension of his personality, Modi, after becoming the Prime Minister, handpicked his own persons as Chief Ministers every time going against conventional wisdom. This is how Vijay Rupani, Manohar Lal Khattar, Devendra Fadnavis, Yogi Adityanath and others were picked.

Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Raman Singh, Vasundhara Raje and Manohar Parrikar were the only BJP Chief Ministers who were not handpicked by him. We saw how Modi after becoming Prime Minister first brought Manohar Parrikar to Delhi and then again moved him back to Goa thereby trying to unsettle him. However, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Raman Singh and Vasundhara Raje were mass leaders and Modi found it difficult to cut them down to size. Modi also had another grudge against Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh. How dare they serve as Chief Ministers for a longer tenure than his own tenure as Chief Minister.

That is the reason he and his protege Amit Shah ran the campaign in such a way that all above Chief Ministers lost. Rather than highlighting the development work his government had done in the last 4 years, he attacked Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, the maker of modern India thereby alienating the masses. You see, Modi is selfish and jealous and does not want others to benefit from his hard work.

Further, he asked his chum Mukesh Ambani to hold extravagant wedding celebrations for his daughter’s wedding in Udaipur in Rajasthan overlapping the polling date of 7th December in Rajasthan. The agenda was to mock the poor people with wedding extravaganza and incite them to vote against the BJP. What did you say? That BJP won Udaipur seat? Please do not bring your facts to meddle with my narrative.

Modi is a workaholic and does not even rest on weekends. After ensuring the defeat of Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan on Friday, he worked over the weekend to ensure that Urjit Patel resigned on Monday. Though Indian authorities had made a watertight case against Vijay Mallya, Modi gave the go-ahead to proceed with the extradition case only on Monday. If Mallya’s extradition had been announced earlier, the BJP would have easily crossed the halfway mark in Madhya Pradesh, something Modi would not relish.

These election results are a bit boost for Modi. After side-lining the previous generation of BJP leaders, he has now also managed to sideline the current generation of BJP leaders. With no checks and balances either in the opposition or within the BJP, Modi will now emerge as a hegemonic force.

To date, Modi has only brought in destructive reforms like Demonetization and GST. The idea was to make it difficult for the likes of Vasundhara Raje and Raman Singh. Now, he will start with constructive things and win 2019. Extradition of Vijay Mallya is just a start. There are several tricks he has up his sleeve, like the Subhas Chandra Bose files for example. Did you folks already forget about that? Let me, a historian and intellectual remind you. Modi had promised to declassify the Bose files and reveal what happened to Subhas Chandra Bose. But he has not done so. He is keeping it as a weapon for 2019. He will declassify the files of India’s Fascist leader to play to the gallery of the Fascist Sangh and try to mock Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, the maker of modern India.

To conclude let me respond to the queries about my 2 tweets on beef which no one has understood.

My 1st Tweet was:
“After a magical morning in Old Goa we had lunch in Panaji, where-since this is a BJP ruled state-I decided to eat beef in celebration.”

My 2nd Tweet was:
I have deleted the photo of my lunch in Goa as it was in poor taste.”

The intellectual pun I was trying to crack with the words “poor taste” was that beef no longer tastes as good in Modi’s India. However, given that Modi leads the most anti-intellectual government India has ever seen, it is no surprise that no one understood this intellectual pun.

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