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India lockout for 21 days, necessary evil or ill-advised mis-adventure?

Opinions

S Ranganathan

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25 March 2020

India lockout for 21 days, necessary evil or ill-advised mis-adventure?

The announcement of our Honourable Prime Minister of India Shri Narendra Modi about 21 day complete lockout of India to fight corona spread and further to ensure social distancing does not looks like necessary evil but only as an act of ill-advised mis-adventure by the government of India.

State governments declaring lock out in the respective states is different from the stand taken by the central government. State government can afford to take such decision because the state has sufficient machinery (definitely in my state Tamil Nadu) to deal the situation and ensure no poor person; workers and small vendors and traders in the unorganized sector shall suffer. Our health and disease spreading measures however necessary they may be but must balance the ground reality and socio-economic aspects of the large section of people in India. By scaring people about some innocuously obvious facts about Corona is although necessary and inevitable but at the same time the preventive measures should not sink people to sorrow and suffering worse than real corona attack.

Demonetization, hopelessly implemented GST and now the Corona lock down are definitely going to break India’s poor and unorganized sector. Adequate sensitization and capability building measures at the village level should have been attempted first than going for lockdown for 21 days. The question is have we taken such measures against killer Malaria or Typhoid, eradicating mosquitos, addressing parasitic problems in children, eradicating malnutrition, infant mortality, maternity linked death, death due to starvation and poverty etc. The argument is not against taking measures to prevent the spread of Corona but the point is have we taken any such measures against all such disease that are still prevalent in India and killing thousands of people every year?

Western style of health care approach or receiving applauds of WHO will not solve the problem of Corona in India and people’s complete co-operation is needed to make all such measures successful. People who are unwilling to co-operate do not really lacks intention but they are unable to do so because of their penurious situation. They have to work daily to meet at least one squire meal per day and how such people can draw a Lakshman Rekha and remain inside the line? How central government is going to reach welfare measures to all those poor traders, construction workers, street vendors, small traders, micro and small enterprises, manufacturing sector, street beggars who live on temple premises depending exclusively on temple prasad?

We have to kill Corona, no doubt and the government of India and all state governments in India are very vigilant and committed in taking all measures to achieve the above goal but can we allow all such measures to kill the livelihood of poor people in the unorganized sector to kill Corona?

America or European countries can afford to go for yearlong lockdown also because all such states are highly welfare states and their outreach mechanism is quite robust and time-tested. America is capable of completing class 10 and 12 exams online perfectly during the lockdown period without affecting the exam schedule despite state wide lockdown? Do we have such system in place?

Intention of the author is not about criticising the earnest efforts of the government but to express the real concern at ground zero that aches and bleeds our mind and heart.

Absolute and highly puritan or utopian wish or measures are good but they work only one a piece of paper and are not wise or implementable in a country like India.

India has to be prepared stage by stage after addressing all larger concerns and issues and only then we should adopt American or European style. The applaud or appreciation of WHO may not live long and what shall live long is the agony and penury of our people and the corona lock down is going to cripple them further.

The lockdown of 21 days has pushed millions of Indians between devil and Dead Sea and in any case death of their livelihood is certain. People under such circumstances may dare, defy, adventure and defeat all prudent measures of the government. Although legally we can blame them but morally and ethically can we is the question we as fellow human being must ask with compassion and consideration.

It would have been wise for the central government to leave the matter to the respective states to deal than central government going for all India lockouts for 21 days irrespective of the quantum of fame such measures may gifts to our country from world community or WHO.

Positives of 21 day lockdown in India

Reports

devnonlydev

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25 March 2020

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As India braces for a lockdown, something which was expected, the need of the hour and a welcome move for several reasons (explained below).

Before going into the benefits of the lockdown, let’s first heap praises on the people who made this possible: of course the PM announced it and he has his thinktank to back him but all this wouldn’t have been possible without the auspices of a seminal paper published by the Imperial College London (this paper effectively changed US and UK strategy towards combating Covid19) where the researchers/authors thrashed out in no uncertain terms how the world needs to act to contain Covid 19 pandemic, the options being no action, mitigation and suppression strategies (lockdown).

The paper demonstrated admirably how suppression / lockdown win hands down as it helps to contain the virus by preventing new cases. Of course the economy goes southward, but more importantly lives are saved and that’s what is the need of the hour.

(Briefly touching down on why partial curfew-lockdowns/mitigation strategies wouldn’t have helped: it would have allowed the virus opportunities to multiply and mutate and become more resistant to drugs; with more infections would have come more serious cases and even deaths overwhelming our already stressed healthcare system.)

Now that lockdown is upon all resident Indians, let’s first list down it’s positives viz.,
1. Fewer total cases of Coronavirus
2. Immediate relief of the healthcare system and those running it
3. Fall in mortality rate
4. Reduction of collateral damage
5. Ability for infected, isolated and quarantined healthcare workers to get better and resume work
6. Setting up a tracing operation as in certain East Asian countries for identifying all the people that every sick person met and put them in quarantine helpful in providing intelligence regarding the social distancing measures used (testing and tracing single handedly brought South Korea under control without resort to too much social distancing methods).
7. More time to buy equipments for a future wave of the disease
8. Ramping up procurement of masks, PPE’s, ventilators, ECMO’s and other critical device.

All said and done, I feel the lockdown announcement was required while the nation would already have been under Section 144 of CrPC 1973 disallowing assembly of 4 or more persons together in one place. This is owing to the scenes of huge assembly and crowd spilling out on the streets from different parts of the country immediately after the PM’s address.

Few concerns still remain:

a) how daily wage earners shall survive this lockdown

b) how small businesses shall survive

And going forward would expect GOI to clarify on the above aspects as well.

References:
1. Paper published by the Imperial College London
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
2. Paper published by Tomas Pueyo
https://link.medium.com/dJk7f0UJZ4

Only we can save us

Opinions

nibranshu

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25 March 2020

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With the impending danger of contracting the deadly COVID-19 having befallen the whole of humanity, and the economy showing signs of heading towards a global recession which is manifestly true once we start observing the numbers crunch, even though a presumption being held that ending first-quarter to mid-year, an upward movement in the graph might get reflected on charts, well-depending upon the magnanimity of the outbreak and the requisite containment measures being implemented along with other policy matters, the apprehension per se of an ominous cloud looming well over our foreheads doesn’t quite seem to wither away.

Change of season brings on a change in foresight. The gradual transformation from spring to summer is naturally seen as a period of growth, of new resolutions, of spotless minds blossoming. It is seen as a period of eternal sunshine. But the current state of affairs rather point to a completely subdued picture, a monotoned hue. Looking closely into the matter, one realises it is the asymmetrical nature of the world that underlies the root cause of the problem. How so? Well this way:

The most unique feature of our planet is the existence of life and the most extraordinary feature of this life is its diversity. Well, as we’ve seen, the past few months have not been kind to us, or rather we as a community of wise-earthlings have for long not been fair to the planet, having recklessly exploited its resources with no regard to its sustainability. Such impetuousness has squarely manifested itself into a chain of catastrophic events that has inflicted humankind with dents which perhaps seems irreparable if promptly not acted upon.

It is plainly discernible that, on one hand, our plushy-green forests are being razed by wild fires due to alarming rise in global temperatures, resulting in towering losses in biodiversity, further being accompanied by continuous melting of glaciers and the cruel destruction of marine life and then on the other hand, there exists a bunch of similar issues which are essentially a human construct though of a relatively different nature. We see men dying of hunger, communities engulfed by hatred, streets covered with filth and obscenity, society plagued with virulent diseases, children blinded by education and plants and animals left at the mercy of them all. We are moving unguided, unhindered.

What COVID-19 has done is, it has shown us that a wild appetite of a few to consume anything and everything under the sun, without any robust regulatory framework to examine the nature and quality of diet they consume, in times when movement across the globe has become as convenient and open as has never been earlier, may have wide-ranging repercussions on the whole of humanity especially when the disease is highly-contagious and shows no sign of being eliminated anytime soon.

In spite of having achieved all the technological prowess in the field of science and medicine in the past few decades that is essential in dealing with impending dangers of the 21st century, if the whole of mankind is still heading into a self-sponsored shit hole then what else can be said? Every untoward incident, every calamity, every disaster is usually occasioned with obscure avenues which are instrumental in helping people approach such issues uniquely.

Shout-out to all the unsung heroes who are out on the streets, at check-points, at hospitals, railway stations, docks, airports, amongst the public, and at every such place where the very presence of a human being casts a doubtful shadow over their survival. Easier said than done. Nevertheless, let us all fight it out together as one.

Stay safe guys, be a smart citizen.

Textbooks or left propaganda material?

aryanevergreen62

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24 March 2020

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NCERT textbooks are recommended by CBSE and are used by several students to prepare for a wide range of competitive examinations. It is a well known fact that textbooks can ideologically influence people. The Congress party in past, with the help of ‘academicians’ have left no stones unturned to distort Indian history and polity. People make their base knowledge with help of these textbooks and if these books are ideologically plagued then that would be disastrous. It seems like communist and left wing academicians have pledged to create an army of comrades.

NCERT-Textbook development Committee Members

Textbook Development Committee(TDC) : Politics in India since Independence

Note the third name first: Yogendra Yadav. An ex-AAP member and a leftist ‘politician’. Nothing is needed to be said for him. Following articles illustrates his malicious attempts to promote his ‘narrative’ in past:

Now comes Mr. Hari Vasudevan: The pro-communist Chairperson of this committee. Mr. Hari Vasudevan has published many articles praising Communist Russia in Economic and Political Weekly, a prominent leftist magazine. Have a look:

For India, the Russian Revolution was more than communism. It deeply marked the country’s coming of age. – MORE THAN JUST COMMUNISM

Next comes Mr. Suhas Palshikar – A Congress party sympathizer. He is a Harsh Mander kind far leftist. Through social media he spreads lies and propaganda. His twitter handle(suhas palshikar (@PalshikarSuhas) | Twitter) speaks for him:

Bigotry against the Police and bureaucracy

The fourth name on the list is Ujjwal Kumar Singh. He has also authored several aricles in Economic and Political Weekly (Ujjwal Kumar Singh)

A TFI article on this issue (BOLD MOVE: The chapters that glorified Communism have been removed from Class X board syllabus) says:

The worst part of the textbook development committees is that they do not have a single member from ‘right wing’ while they claim to be ‘independent’. The members of RSS and other right-wing organizations were ostracized by these people. The content in the textbooks was openly upper caste bashing, anti-America, pro-Communism and socialism, anti-free market.

NCERT has shown anti-BJP/RSS bias many times.These textbooks have also attempted to normalize appeasement politics as secular politics. A standard left narrative has been pushed through these ‘textbooks’. These are some glimpse from Chapter 9: Recent Developments in Indian Politics, Politics in India since Independence(NCERT) which is the recommended textbook of class XII:

The ‘Romila Thapar’ narrative over Ram Mandir

Fear mongering about infringement of citizenship. What the hell Ayodhaya verdict has to do with citizenship rights?

Have a look at these ‘cartoons’ :

Spreading ‘Democracy in danger’ propaganda through the cartoons-1

*Spreading ‘Democracy in danger’ propaganda through the cartoons-*2

History textbooks are no less bigoted. They portray 1857 as a ‘failed rebellion’ and even doesn’t mention Veer Savarkar’s book “The Indian war of Independence” even once given the importance of that book in the given context. These textbooks use careful words to spread a propaganda. Their target are the bright students who do not have a strong political leaning of their own. These students are given a ‘booster dose’ of propaganda through these textbooks. These books indirectly demonise the right wing. The students who like to read between lines ends up on left propaganda websites like Wire, Quint etc. and then starts the chain reaction. Slowly in course of two years of secondary schooling left wing content is normalised as ‘politically correct’. Students feels that right wing content is ‘politically incorrect’. Some of these students end up in a communist atmosphere as in JNU and become ‘ideological Sharjeel/Shaila/Kanhaiya’ or some times even ‘Amulya’ .These people become intolerant to what they call the ‘politically incorrect side of political spectrum’. Some of them inturn becomes ‘academicians’ like Yogendra Yadav, Romila Thapar and ends up in spreading propaganda. The process goes on and they create an army of comrades which today is doing more harm than good. This left propaganda has far reaching outcomes as seen in case of anti-CAA protest and anti-hindu Delhi Riots.

There is a strong need that the nationalist Modi government has to take decisive measures to free these textbooks from all sort of propaganda and clutter. Every side of the story needs to be given adequate weightage otherwise it would be a chaos for our country in future. Government still has time.

एक बारिश का मौसम

praveenthakur

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24 March 2020

0

“कोई रोने तक को फोन नहीं उठा रहा इसलिए तुमको मिला लिए”

दोपहर तीन के आस पास वीडियो बनाने के लिए सेट अप कर रहा था, अचानक मेघ आए सब काला हुआ और सबसे पहले बिजली भाग खड़ी हुई। अंधेरे में बैठा ध्यान मेसेजस की ओर चला गया कुछ अच्छे लिखे थे लोगों ने तो कुछ मेरी मरी मां को संबोधित करके अपने संस्कारों का परिचय दे रहे थे। किसी ने लिखा था कुरान को दोबारा हाथ लगाया तो हाथ काट दूंगा तो किसी ने लिखा भईया आप जो कार्य कर रहे हैं करते रहें आप जैसे युवाओं की आवश्यकता है।

दिमाग है कि मानता नहीं और मौसम मुझे विवश कर देता है लिखने के लिए ये शब्द ही मेरे तले हुए प्याज के पकोड़े हैं, हरे धनिए की गांव में सिल पर बनी हुई चटनी के साथ परोसे हुए।

मैं भाषा के समुन्द्र में डूब कर शब्दों के मोती ढूंढ ही रहा था कि अचानक से पड़ोसी ने कहा अरे भाई एक हेल्प करदो यार हमाई घर वाली बना नहीं रही है तुम तो वो सविग्गी से फोन से भी मंगाते हो हम से कुछ रुपए ज्यादा लेकर मंगा दो न, मैंने सोचा ठीक है देखता हूं बारिश में सर्विस दे रहे हैं या नहीं।

तभी एक फोन आया गांव से, आवाज को पहचान नहीं पाया कौन सा चाचा कौन सा ताऊ कौन सा फूफा था क्यूंकि आवाज जैसे टूट गई थी उसकी। टूटते हुए शब्दों को जोड़कर उसने कहा प्रवीण बेटा सत्यानाश हो गया सारी खेती बैठ गई, कोई दर्द बांटने फोन तक नहीं उठा रहा इसलिए तुमको मिला लिए, पर मैं तो पकोडों की सोच रहा था, मैं तो भूल गया था मेरे कुछ अपने मिट्टी में रहते हैं मिट्टी के सहारे जीते हैं और मेरी अक्ल पर मिट्टी पड़ी थी कि फोन करके पूछ भी न सका किसका कितना नुकसान हुआ है।

कौनसा मैं फसल लहला देता कौनसा उनके घरों में अनाज की बारिश होती मेरे पूछने से या रोती सी शक्ल बनाने से पर “कोई रोने तक को फोन नहीं उठा रहा इसलिए तुमको मिला लिए” ने तोड़कर रख दिया कुछ पलों के लिए।

ये भी उन्हीं लोगों में से एक हैं जो हर नेता के हर भाषण में होते हैं हर योजना, विवेचना और हर कार्य में इनकी फोटो ब्रांड एंबेसडर की तरह लगाई जाती है, बेचारे ब्रांड एंबेसडर का कारोबार, घरवार और परिवार सब उसी मिट्टी से चलता है।

कितनी चंचल मिट्टी है ये अपनी मर्जी से रोटी देती है जब मन करे खुद ही लील जाती है फिर पानी में भीेगी हुई ऐसे पड़ी रहती है जैसे कोई युवती किसी कटुवे के प्रेम में पड़ती है और फिर अपनी पहचान खोकर पछता रही होती है। वैसे ही ये धरती पानी के प्रेम में पड़कर यौवन खोल देती है फिर अपने बच्चों को रोता बिलखता देख तड़प उठती है पर काम तो तमाम हो ही चुका है। जैसे युवती अपनी पहचान और स्वतंत्रता खोकर दासता का जीवन जीती है वैसे ही धरती के बेटे कुछ बची कुची फसल से रोटियां बनाकर गुजरा करते हैं, उनके अपने बच्चों को किए वादे कि इस बार फसल अच्छी होने पर तुमको रेंजर सायकिल दिलाएंगे या लैपटॉप दिलाएंगे एक साल आगे बढ़ जाते हैं।

फोन करने वाले को बोल दिए हैं जब तक हमारी थाली भरी है आप की खाली नहीं होने देंगे और हम लोग रोने वालों में से नहीं है हम लड़ते हैं बस लड़ते रहते हैं सारा जीवन लड़ते हैं यूं ही लड़ते रहेंगे क्यूंकि हमें एक ही धर्म दिया है विधाता ने लड़ाई, नियति से पटक खाकर फिर खड़े होना और अपनी टूटी हालत दिखाकर उसे चिढाना देख हम खड़े हैं टूटकर भी खड़े हैं और खड़े रहेंगे…. हम खड़े हैं हम लड़ रहे हैं और लड़ते रहेंगे।

प्रवीण लड़ाकू है हार तो तभी हो सकती है जब बैटरी से सेल खतम हो जाएं… हार महाराणा को दिल में सजाने वाले ने कभी सुनी नहीं बस लड़ाई जान रहने तक लड़ाई नियति से परिस्थिति से तंत्र से ये लड़ाई मेरी है और में ही लड़ूंगा …..….. लड़ाई जारी रहेगी…

राजनीति और निर्लज्जता के साहचर्य का सामाजिक विमर्श

U

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24 March 2020

0

राजनीति और निर्लज्जता के साहचर्य का सामाजिक विमर्श

“सारे नियम कानून बस आम लोगों के लिए हैं। नेता, मंत्री, अफसर सब मौज में ही रहते हैं। उनके लिए कोई नियम नहीं होते।”

ये एक सामान्य वाक्य है जो गाहे बगाहे सुनने को मिल ही जाता है। आम तौर नेताओं को गरियाने के साथ विशेष तौर पर स्वयं को दुनिया का सबसे नैतिक इंसान घोषित करने के लिए ये वाक्य एक यह परोक्ष हथियार भी है।

मन्नू भण्डारी का उपन्यास है- ‘महभोज’; उसमें वो लिखती हैं की राजनीति में रहकर नेताओं की खाल गेंडे जैसी हो जाती है। अब प्रश्न उठता है कि ऐसा होता क्यों है?

नेता लोकतंत्र मे सर्वाधिक नजरों में रहने वाला व्यक्ति होता है। जितनी आलोचना का सामना एक नेता को करना पड़ता है शायद ही किसी और को करना पड़ता हो। फिल्मी सितारों और क्रिकेट खिलाड़ियों के समर्थक अधिकतर आजीवन समर्थक बने रहते हैं। नेताओं को यह सौभाग्य प्राप्त नहीं होता है। उनके समर्थक विभिन्न कारणों पर निर्भर करते हैं जैसे पार्टी, विचारधारा, जाति, मज़हब,क्षेत्र, ‘अपना फायदा’ इत्यादि। बेहतर कैंडीडेट मिलने पर समर्थक पाला बदलने मे क्षण भर का भी विलंब नहीं करते।

पुनः नेता का एक कठिन काम निर्णय लेना होता है। वैसे टी.एस.ईलियट ने कह ही रखा है कि मनुष्य निर्णय लेने के शापित है, परंतु जब आप का निर्णय बड़े समूह पर प्रभाव डालता है तब सबको प्रसन्न रखना और भी कठिन हो जाता है। किस स्थान पर नई यूनिवर्सिटी खोली जाए, MSP कितना रखा जाए, आरक्षण पर राय क्या रखी जाए जैसे मुद्दे तो बड़ी खाई पैदा करते है। इनमें एक पक्ष बनाम दूसरे पक्ष की बात आ ही जाती है। तो यहाँ पर कितना भी समन्वय बैठाने की कोशिश कर लें विरोध के स्वर आने ही आने हैं।

वैसे ही हाई रिस्क निर्णय का भी हाल है। नोटबन्दी या एयरस्ट्राइक जैसे नए विषय हो या बांग्लादेश के निर्माण व श्रीलंका में शांति के लिए सेना भेजना या फिर नई आर्थिक नीति बनाना; निर्णय लेने वाले को काफी बाद में पता चलता है की उसके निर्णय का परिणाम क्या होगा। अगर एयर स्ट्राइक में भारतीय विमान मार गिराए जाते तो जो घटना अभी मास्टरस्ट्रोक कही जा रही है वही डिजास्टर कही जाती।

पर आप निर्णय लेने से भाग नहीं सकते। और उसकी समीक्षा से भी बच नहीं सकते। तो सबसे अच्छा है की अपनी चमड़ी मोटी करके बैठो।

दूसरा ये एक बड़ा मजेदार मुद्दा है की एक ‘आम-जन’ जब अपने किसी काम के लिए नेता के पास जाता है तो वो अपेक्षा करता है कि नेता सारे नियम-कानून तोड़ कर उसका काम करवा दें भले ही विधिक एवं नैतिक रूप से वो कितना गलत क्यों न हो। हाँ, अपने स्वयं के लिए नेता को सभी कानूनों का पालन करना चाहिए। इसी तरह नेता अगर उनके घर में विवाह समारोह में आ रहा है तो सबसे ज़्यादा गाड़ियों के साथ आए और एक मोटी राशि उपहार में दे जाए। ये प्रश्न गौड़ हो जाता है की उसको उसी दिन 50 जगह पर जाना है एवं सभी की आकांक्षाओं को पूरा करना है। और इन सबकी पूर्ति के लिए उसकी सीमित सैलरी की चिंता किसी को नहीं हो सकती। और इस द्वैत से निकलने की उलझन तो आपकी है ही नहीं।

राजनीतिक भ्रष्टाचार का उद्भव भी कहीं न कहीं समाज की इन्ही अपेक्षाओं से है।

यही काँटा ‘पोलिटिकल इकॉनमी’ की बहस में भी चुभता है। हमको 300-400 रुपये की बिजली-पानी की सब्सिडी भी चाहिए और एक अच्छे प्लान वाले नेता को इतनी छोटी सी घूस के लिए हरा देते हैं। लेकिन साथ ही हम गालियां ये भी देंगे की स्वास्थ्य, शिक्षा, रक्षा, नवाचार आदि पर सरकार खर्च क्यों नहीं कर रही? हमारी सड़कें चमचमाती हुई क्यों नहीं हैं? लोक व्यवस्था चरमराती हुई क्यों है? पब्लिक टॉयलेट साफ क्यों नहीं है?…. या ऐसा बहुत कुछ।

आपको गन्ने की एमएसपी भर-भर कर चाहिए क्योंकि उस फसल में मेहनत कम है और उसके किसानों में एकजुटता भी ज़्यादा है। अगर सरकार हाथ जोड़ रही है की दाल उगा लो, मक्का की खेती कर लो या तिलहन की पैदावार बढ़ाने की जरूरत है। मजाल है की हमसे भिड़ पाएं नेताजी। क्या करना है हमें; चाहे भूजल स्तर गिर रहा हो या मिट्टी की उर्वरता कम हो रही हो। आयात करना किसका काम है इससे तो हमको मतलब ही नहीं है, और उसके आर्थिक नुकसान के झमेले की बात ही न करो। ज़्यादा बोलोगे तो सड़क जाम होगी और चुनाव में सरकार गई समझो।

अब विकल्प क्या है नेता के पास खाल मोती करने के सिवा? क्योंकि आप गरियाओगे उसको ये उसे पता है।

नेताओं का तो व्यक्तिगत जीवन भी नहीं होता। आप का फोन नंबर, बैंक डीटेल, शैक्षिक योग्यता, संपत्ति की जानकारी, परिवार की सूचना या अन्य जानकारी कोई सार्वजनिक कर दे तो आप संभवतः पुलिस के पास पहुँच जाएंगे। नेताओं की ये सारी सूचना तो नामांकन पत्र मे ही लिखी होती हैं जो सार्वजनिक हो जाता है। इतना ही नहीं नेताओ की नितांत व्यक्तिगत जीवन में भी लोगों को संतों सी शुचिता चाहिए; दिग्विजय सिंह ने इस उम्र मे शादी क्यों की? किसी से उस नेता का अफेयर कैसे चल रहा है? प्रधानमंत्री अच्छे कपड़े क्यों पहनता है? उस नेता ने इतना बड़ा घर क्यों बनवाया? बेटे को अमरीका क्यों भेजा? बेटी की शादी दूसरी जाति में क्यों की? अरे भाई, रिश्ता करना हो तब तो देखो ये सब। वरना चाहो तो नीति निर्माण, कर्मठता, समस्या निदान, वैचारिक समर्पण आदि पर परख लो उन लोगों को। बात इतनी ही नहीं है, क्रिकेटर्स और फिल्मी सितारों की गालियों पर ताली पीटने वालों को नेता ऐसा सुशील चाहिए की ऊंची आवाज़ में कभी बात भी न करता हो। लगातार दो वाक्य सही न बोल पाने वाले न्यूज एंकर भी दिन में 12 घंटे बोलने वाले नेता की मुह से निकले एक गलत शब्द का मूल्यांकन ऐसे करेंगे जैसे कालिदास और प्रेमचंद जैसी प्रांजल भाषा उनके कार्यालय के चपरासी भी बोलते हों।

एक बड़ा पक्ष ये है की नेता समाज के प्रतिनिधि के रूप में केवल वोटों के पैटर्न को नहीं प्रदर्शित करता वरन लोगों की मानसिकता को भी दिखाता है। समाज का सूक्ष्म प्रतिबिंब नेताओं मे मिल जाएगा आपको। समाज की सारी अच्छाइयाँ, बुराइयाँ, अपेक्षाएँ, दृष्टि, महत्वाकांक्षा आदि सब कुछ नेताओं मे दिख जाता है।

तो जनता जैसी होगी नेता वैसे ही निकल कर आएंगे। हम ट्रैफिक सिग्नल तोड़ेंगे, दारू पी कर गाड़ी चलाएंगे, टैक्स की चोरी करेंगे, ऑफिस देर से जाने के बहाने खोजेंगे, चंद पैसों के लिए दुकान से बिल नहीं बनवाएंगे….… हमारे भ्रष्टाचार की सीमा ही यही है। अब हम में से ही कोई नेता बनेगा तो उसके भ्रष्टाचार कर सकने की सीमा का विस्तार होगा। तो सामाजिक मनोवृत्ति और अपनी शक्ति के अनुपात मे वो वैसा ही भ्रष्टाचार भी करेगा।

हाँ, कई नेता नहीं भटकते हैं। वो नैतिक मार्ग पर ही चलते हैं। क्योंकि ऐसे व्यक्ति समाज में भी होते हैं और ऐसे राजनेता भी समाज में नैतिक लोगों के अनुपात में होंगे।

भारत जैसे देश में तो अपेक्षा का बोझ नेताओं पर इतना है की वो चाहें भी तो वो पूरी तरह से ये बोझ नहीं उठा सकते। और फिर कई की सोच हो जाती है कि जब हर तरह से गाली खानी ही है तो क्यों न जीवन आसान करने के कुछ साधन जुगाड़ लें। समर्थकों या जाति वालों का भला कर दें कि वो साथ देते रहें।

वास्तविकता ये है कि 130 करोड़ का देश कुछ हजार नेताओं से नहीं चलता बल्कि पूरी जनसंख्या की अभिवृत्ति से चलता है। हम जितना कम दोषारोपण करेंगे, जितना अधिक अपने कर्तव्यों पर ध्यान देंगे, छोटे व्यक्तिगत हितों पर बड़े सामाजिक हितों को तरजीह देंगे उतना ही हम शासन व्यवस्था में बैठे लोगों पर दबाव बना पाएंगे की वो भी लाइन पर रहें। और तब ‘कायदे मे रहोगे तो फायदे में रहोगे’ का मैसेज बिना कहे ही ऊपर तक पहुँच जाएगा।

और ये सब नहीं समझ आ रहा तो किसी के नेता बनने पर कोई प्रतिबंध तो है नहीं। आप ‘होलिअर दैन दाउ’ हैं तो उतर पड़िये मैदान में और सब कुछ छोड़कर जनसेवा में लगिये; चुनाव मे भागीदारी कर के दिखा दीजिए और सिखा दीजिए इन सबको की असली नेता कैसा होता है।

Misinformation and fake News: An epidemic more dangerous than the pandemic Covid-19

Opinions

urbanacsetic

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24 March 2020

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Misinformation and fake News: An epidemic more dangerous than the pandemic Covid-19

Pandemic like Covid-19 always become a theme of discussion between the people of India. Being a highly populated and badly educated country controlling a pandemic like Covid-19 becomes a tough job for its government.

In the worst scenario, like India is currently going through, some people don’t stop talking about religious pseudoism. It affects the already uncontrolled situation of handling the pandemic. People who are illiterate or who belong to remote areas such as poor depend mostly on the government, Television, and their relatives for any kind of information. In such condition misinformation, may become more dangerous than the pandemic itself.

India is a county of political and religious biases. Here, you can do anything in the name of your political party and religion. You can talk about the pseudoscience of your religion and also if someone doesn’t agree upon you, you can call them anti-national and anti-liberal. These people including some who control the religious practices in the country and also the administration hijack the minds of the people and the people with hijacked mind become vulnerable for the society in a scenario like today. The worst part of it is that people with the highest administrational posts and educational degrees tend to believe in these pseudosciences.

Today I’ll only discuss this misinformation and their effects-

Producing noise can kill Coronavirus: On March 20, 2020, Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a press conference to the people of India announced the implementation of “Janta Curfew” that took place on 22 March only to practice “social distancing” to curb the epidemic Covid-19. In addition to this, he requested people to come out of their balconies to ring bells and clap for the people such as doctors, nurses, pathologists, etc. to applaud and appreciate their work for the country in this crucial time. People including some politicians twisted this concept by adding it to religious pseudoism that the wavelength produced by this act can kill Coronavirus. This misinformation became a blunder in some places and people broke the protocol and started gathering on the roads to ring bells and other kinds of stuff. This act was criticized by many people including Prime minister himself. But the important thing to notice here is that the misinformation spread by some people of has already done its job. Social gathering had become a reason for social rejoice.

Cow dung and cow urine can save us from Coronavirus: This news was being spread on the social media platforms that drinking cow urine can cure Covid-19 and bathing in water lodged cow dung can save from Covid-19. Even a party of drinking cow urine was organized by some social groups and the worst part of it was that more than a thousand people joined it.

Sitting in the sun for 15 minutes and taking vitamin C tablets can save from Covid-19: A minister of the ruling party has claimed that sitting in the sun for 15 minutes can cure the pandemic and taking vitamin C tablets can enhance the human immunity that can help in tackling the effects of Coronavirus. Both the claims were dismissed by the government authorities and health superintendents.

Vegetarians are less affected from Coronavirus: This misinformation was being spread on all across the internet in the light of another misinformation that Coronavirus has spread from animals and non-vegetarian people are more prone to catch this virus. This claim was later ridiculed by the WHO and Indian government. This misinformation has already affected the non-veg market.

Wearing masks and using hand sanitizer is necessary for everyone: As soon as people heard this news that masks and sanitizers are essential to save them from Coronavirus, the rush to buy these items increased fiercely. This response resulted in high demand for these items and slowly became out of stock or very costly. The effect of this rush was so negative that people who needed it were not able to buy it or bought it on a very high price. In the response, the government issued an advisory about who should use masks.

Many misinformation and fake news are being spread all over the internet that cannot be traced. And this misinformation and fake news are only affecting the lives of the common people and especially of the poor and needy. In such a time of the disaster, we should only collectively be aware and stay away from these kinds of people and stop them from spreading these biases and misinformation so that we can save people from doing any wrong act that can affect their life.

The medical facilities of India are already in very worst condition. People must acknowledge that a country that cannot handle diseases like encephalitis, how it’s going to handle a pandemic like Covid-19. Last year in Bihar itself more than thousands of infants died due to the lack of proper medical treatment. Indian economy is already dooming and it cannot handle the expenses of the current disaster if people won’t co-operate with the government. To diagnose Coronavirus states with greater population have lesser number of test centres. For example, Mumbai and Bihar have only 2 test centres whereas UP has only 3.

It’s advised to the people of India to stay indoors as a safety measure. The reason is that pandemic Covid-19 is very contagious. It only can be controlled through social distancing. That’s why world leaders in their country are advising and requesting people to isolate them and stay indoors.

Till afternoon, March 23, 2020, there were 425 affected cases and 8 deaths from Coronavirus.

Believing and acting on misinformation may become a disaster that no one would be able to control.

Stay indoors to stay safe and healthy.

Corona – EU syndrome versus economic loss, Govt. must save people with hefty economic package

Opinions

S Ranganathan

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24 March 2020

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Corona – EU syndrome versus economic loss, Govt. must save people with hefty economic package

The fear over Corona –COVID19 is whether real or highly exaggerated is not the theme of this article but the writing on the wall is quite clear that India has reasonably infected with European syndrome in dealing public health issues. The intent of the government may be good but the question is all about the methodologies and what harm it can make.

We say India is diverse, multi-religious, multi faith, multi-cultural, multi-linguistic, multi-politic, federal governance system where large proportion of people are poor, uneducated, does not have great awareness about health and hygiene, does not have proper sanitation facility, drinking water, power supply, cooking gas connection, bank account (until 2014).

That was the India under the Congress party that follows nothing but dynastic politics and corruption. If we think the above description suites India more than 100%, we also must remember about something else that is unique to India and that differentiates Indians from the rest to a larger extent; that is our INHERENT IMMUNITY’ to resist many diseases as well as our obsession to depart from various neglected, third world diseases.

When WHO, US and EU pressed the alarm bell about Corona epidemic and the possibility of it reaching pandemic proportion, certainly India has to respond and India under Narendra Modi has responded very well. Subsequently all measures required to prevent the spread of the virus in the community were taken and the government has started to identify and quarantine all suspected and positive cases of Corona. Public awareness and increasing the capability building in hospitals to mitigate the challenge also has been started to happen in full swing across India.

Preparedness and capability building to truncate the Corona challenge is fine, but the exaggerated sensitization and lockdown without considering the loss of trade and livelihood of many even in the name of preventive measures needs to be reviewed and done accordingly.

We must ask prudently how many people who have shown positive for corona manifests all signs and symptoms of the disease and have died to arrive reasonably how our herd or inherent immunity is helping us to deal corona.

Demonetization, hurriedly implemented GST and now the Corona lockdown may not just cripple our economy and small trades but may even kill us permanently. Loss of wage and loss of income of small traders are already killing their family and for such poor people corona is likely to make no impact. The issue that we face in India due to corona must be dealt both microbiologically and humanely.

We need to be cruel towards Corona and at the same time also must be humane towards small traders and manufacturers who are likely to lose their livelihood and life due to corona lockdown.

Government must offer hefty economic package to keep the life and enthusiasm of small traders and manufacturers. Interest free bank loans with prolonged repayment period, complete tax and GST waiver for 3-6 months, free supply of all essential commodities to the families, free supply of cooking gas, electricity etc., must be provided. Slowly curbs and lockdown must be removed so that people also breathe life easily and not get lockdown in captivity due to corona.

European syndrome or fear before we develop we must also check whether our inherent immunity can sufficiently deal the hazard. All preventive and protective measures must be taken keeping in mind the livelihood importance of the last man in the street.

The irresponsible politics of several opposition parties in India, predominantly by Indian National Congress and its dynast leader Raghul Gandhi also must be blamed because their irresponsible politics also warrant such response from the government. When the lockdown is called for, opposition demands prolonged lockdown and when the situation improves, the same opposition also would demand the government’s justification for the lockdown because how such lockdown has impoverished India’s economy.

Giving no room for anyone to play politics, government must announce several economic package to all Indians and even if such gesture cause serious fiscal deficit to our country. When we love India, it is the Indians that we refer through such reference of India and hence India’s government must stand with Indians to protect them from the assault of corona lockdown and Corona infection.

Why India can’t afford a free run of the Corona virus

devnonlydev

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24 March 2020

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Why India can’t afford a free run of the Corona virus

Fresh from the cheer and celebration of PM announced Janta Curfew, the fresh numbers of Corona affected in India has hit all of us like a bombshell: 467 as of Tuesday 23rd March 2020, a jump of 71 fresh cases over the previous day. Concerns and consternation aside, Indians are conjuring if India is hurtling towards a healthcare apocalypse!

To objectively explore the situation and see bad can be how bad, I started with the assumption that for the time say the Covid-19 (novel Coronavirus) outbreak in India has spiked to the same proportions as in other countries where it has exceeded normal limits. To model that scenario, I needed to estimate total number of infected people and what proportion of such infected people are serious.

For my study I took data of the following countries where the Special or Intensive Care patients admitted due to Covid 19 has reached the three figures mark viz., China, Italy, USA, Spain, France, Switzerland, Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden (Iran also considered for its total number of cases).

Table 1.0

Country	Population as of 2020 (in million)	Infected Cases due to Covid 19 [Date as of 23rd March 2020]	Percentage of total Population	Serious Cases (ICU) Cases due to Covid 19 [Date as of 23rd March 2020]	Percentage of Serious Care (ICU) Cases out of Infected Cases
China	1439	81093	0.0056	1749	2.16
Italy	60	59138	0.0986	3000	5.07
USA	331	35121	0.0106	795	2.26
Spain	46.754	33089	0.0708	2355	7.12
France	65.273	16689	0.0256	1746	10.46
Iran	83.992	23049	0.0274
Switzerland	8.654	8547	0.0988	141	1.65
Netherlands	17.135	4749	0.0277	354	7.45
Belgium	11.589	3743	0.0323	322	8.60
Sweden	10.10	2046	0.0203	104	5.08

Data from Worldometer and Wikipedia as on 23^rd March 2020 (Data for Serious Cases of Iran not available)

Need of the hour was to get a semblance of what percentage of India’s population can at worst be affected by Covid 19 based on data of countries which are worst hit. To this extent, I worked out the weighted average percentage of total population likely to be affected and the same comes to approximately 0.0129%

Now, to gauge the approximate percentage of Serious / ICU cases as a percentage of those affected by the virus, I calculated the weighted average of serious cases to total percentage of infected population and the same comes to approximately 4.29% (a bit on conservation side due to non-availability of Special Cases data from Iran). So we can approximate the percentage of serious cases to total infected as 5% say.

Now, from Worldometer data, we know that India’s population is 1.380 billion as on March 21^st 2020.

If 0.0129% of India’s population is liable to be affected by Covid-19 in the worst case scenario case, that comes to 1,78,020. Latter is the number of likely affected persons in India assuming Covid 19 has run out of control. But the estimate is even higher than China’s figures, where the disease originated. To this extent, if we extrapolate the number of infected cases based only on China’s figures and estimate pro-rata infected comparing populations for China and India, we may still have approximately 78,000 cases of the disease. Here, the tacit assumption is we shall be able to replicate the response as good as China’s if things go really out of control and be effectively able to crackdown on the disease. However, if the assumption is relaxed, the figures may be even double or more.

Assuming 5% of the affected population are serious cases, that comes to 3,901 say 4,000 (with assumption on control). And figures of approximately 8000-9000, if the assumptions are relaxed.

Now, all these 4,000 likely serious cases will require ICU care with ventilator beds.

Plus an additional 15% or 12,000 shall need to breathe in highly concentrated oxygen for at least 3-6 weeks from beginning of the disease to recovery

So, a total of anywhere between 16,000 patients shall require ICU care with ventilator beds (with assumption on control). And a figure close to 40,000 patients if assumptions of control are relaxed.

India currently has 70,000 ICU with ventilator facility both government and private hospitals combined. However, these 70,000 ICU beds cater to nearly five million patients requiring ICU admissions per year and is already stressed.

So, to put it straight : India is not prepared to meet the requirement of ICU ventilator beds if Covid-19 spirals out of control.

Now, lets come to the cost and time for producing these additional ventilator beds.

A reasonably good ventilator ICU bed can cost anywhere from 5 lakhs to 10 lakhs Indian Rupees in India and may go upwards to 35 lakhs per bed if imported.

Considering the conservative 5 lakhs per bed, it shall require a minimum provision of 800-1800 crores Indian Rupees and considering 35 lakhs per bed, a provision of nearly 5,600 -12600 crores depending on the levels of control.

Indian’s total healthcare budget as of 2020 is 69,000 crores Indian Rupees. So we are looking at a minimum investment of anywhere between 1.2 – 2.2 % up to 8.2 – 15.4 % of our total healthcare budget only on Ventillator beds.

As per data from the US, these beds can take upto 8 months for production. Even if its expedited, may still take anywhere between 2 / 3 /4 months for production and delivery.

So, even if we have a budget, we cant take into use those many beds on immediate basis if exigency arises.

In conclusion, we can say, India can’t ill afford a community wide spread of the disease since it can completely overwhelm the capacity of India’s existing healthcare system in terms of ICU care (ventilator beds).

Cutting down to the basics, complete lockdown (suppression technique) as opposed to partial measures (mitigation technique) is recommended to contain Covid 19.

At an individual citizen level, Indians need to practice and also motivate others to implement “social distancing”.

India now needs the cooperation, empathy and blessing of every citizen along with bold decisions from the Government to contain and control this pandemic from having a free run in India.

References

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5672666/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2738307/

https://www.businesstoday.in/top-story/covid-19-cases-rise-to-107-india-faces-shortage-of-ventilators-icu-beds/story/398269.html

Corona pandemic: An opportunity to rethink global mobility

Reports

pranabandhu93

-

23 March 2020

0

Corona pandemic: An opportunity to rethink global mobility

Wuhan, a central Chinese city barely known outside China months ago, is now famous for all the bad reasons as the epicentre of Covid-19 outbreak. Known as the financial, political, cultural and educational capital of central China, the city has hosted thousands of foreign nationals residing in its territory working and studying in various organisations. The consumption of wild meat is supposed to be the reason behind the transmission of Covid-19 from animals to humans. People can’t be blamed for eating wild animals as it has been in practice for hundreds of years in Chinese cultures. The disaster could have been averted if the Chinese government had regulated the wild meat trades way back in 2004 when SARS- Coronavirus came into the light. But what is the reason behind Covid-19 becoming a global pandemic affecting more than 160 nations? May the world would have been less mobile, the coronavirus would have been a local pandemic making it a smaller danger to control. So increased global mobility can be primarily blamed for the Covid-19 outbreak across the globe.

Now the question arises, is the global mobility and labour migration inevitable at current times? Is there a way to stop large scale migrations without hampering the economic engine of the world? Do we need to rethink the mobility strategy for a better world? To find the answer to the questions let us examine the trends of human mobility. As per a number of reports published (UNDP-Mobility & migration), mobility is basic freedom with real and perceived value for all the groups across the world. People become more mobile in search of better opportunities and higher standards of living in a progressive world. Although the story of human mobility largely related to colonial history when Africans and Asians were forced migrated as free or cheap labour forces to support the industrial development initiated by the European states and traders. The shortage of labour-intensive workforce in the distant colonies catalysed the forced-migration trends for centuries.

But the concept of global mobility has changed dramatically after the decline of European colonies after the world war II. Wars, political unrests, socio-economic conflicts, climate changes are the few other reasons for mass migration over the centuries besides industrial migrations. In more recent times global mobility has been redefined to brain drains, cheap semi-skilled labour force, higher education and tourism. Moreover, the expanding territories of multi-national and trans-national companies have attracted more people in becoming international workers in the last few decades. Although the process has benefitted millions of international workers, at the same time it has made the world more vulnerable to pandemics like Covid-19. The international workforce has become the primary carriers of pandemics in modern times.

No-one has ever imagined Covid-19, originated in Chine will disrupt the world in such a large scale. The fear of being treated unfairly in foreign lands if known infected has forced international workers to head towards their own countries bringing the virus with them. This is probably the primary reason for Covid-19 being a global pandemic. Had the international workers been treated ethically the problem would not have been of this scale. The international workers who worked as wheels of the economic engines of the nations overnight became unwanted. The states started prioritizing their own citizens leaving international workers in a drastic state to return back to their own countries. This nationalistic priority in a globalised economy has brought the whole world into her toes.

So what next once the pandemic gets over hopefully in the next couple of months. Should we continue the global mobility trend or should there be a serious revisit of the global workforce mobility? Considering the global downfall of ethical business practices encouraged by a few greedy individuals who control more than half of the world wealth, there is a lean chance of the trend being reversed. Whatever be the trend in future, we must agree that the only ways to insulate the world from global biological pandemics are either to encourage ethical treatment of global workforce or taking the world economy towards local economies driven by global values.

The concept of Gram Swaraj (self-reliant villages) by Mahatma Gandhi decades back seems more relevant in the current situation. The concept largely calls for localised self-sufficient economies driven by global values. The time has come to implement it. The advancement of communication and other technologies are rightly in place to take the concept forward. The only thing required now is a people’s revolution backed by state policies to make the concept work. Now again the question is should nations put blanket restrictions on global mobility, probably the answer is ‘No’. A blanket ban will jeopardize the concept of global innovations. People must be allowed to cross the borders to learn and bring innovations to the homelands to support local economies instead of being migrated to work as unskilled labour forces. So the time is very much ripe for the states to revisit global migration policies. Global cooperation in a participatory approach is the utmost need of the hour for devising future scopes of global mobility to support local economies.

With the success of the concept, it will bring multiple progressive results in the long run. Decreased geographical disparities, equitable developments, deconcentrated pollutions, distributed wealth are few of the expected positive outcomes. The Covid-19 outbreak is an opportunity for the whole world to ponder upon developing local economies and restricting mass global mobility. In today’s technologically advanced world the global visions must be “Globally Mobile Ideas supporting Localised Economies”. This will definitely make our world a happier and more prosperous place to live in!

[The author is a rural management graduate from Xavier University Bhubaneswar, working in the fields of skill development & entrepreneurship with a leading social enterprise]