Home Blog Page 465

The truth unsaid

0

There are story writers who sign any contract for writing rubbish. They may be paid in dollar or in rupee, cash or kind, in Indian account or foreign account, in his own name or in spouse’ name. Only an extraordinarily shameless writer can make bash-India story to ensure that public is confused about encouraging India story under Modi regime. Some writers recently posted story about India’s “failure” in handling Covid 19 crisis. It was astonishing how blind such contract writers are about a simple arithmetic of India’s Covid19 toll count compared with other countries.

Compared with the density of population and the nature of Covid19 being imported, while India’s success of containing it from community spread is adorable, some media personnel have discovered strange arguments. This dirty face of Indian journalism with truth untold ever is heavily poisonous.

Even a child with a simple common sense doesn’t need to be taught how Covid19 is devastating the world and how better protected Indians are with sufficient precautionary measures. Recently in a portal a writer showed two instances of Germany and China, as successful Covid19 management cases. Germany has several times more Covid19 victims and at least 15 times more mortality than India has, as of now. No need to compare the population density, geographic size and overall population between the two. Germany is fast losing its control like Italy, Spain, France and UK.

The writer also said China didn’t declare nationwide lockdown to contain it, while seemingly forgetting that China recorded 3500 deaths. Would Modi have been allowed to live in peace had it been in India even with one-tenths of the toll? The story argued, China didn’t declare nation-wide lockdown. Yes, China didn’t need a nation-wide lockdown, since the disease originated and remained only in Wuhan. However, in India Covid19 reported from almost all States, before the lockdown was announced. Even in China the locked down was ordered in the province only after tolls alarmed the government. But in India, some dirty minds wanted the government to hold on its action to see things going out of control for a celebration.

India has cases from all over the country brought in by foreign tourists and travelers. Let’s not forget, India is the only country in the world to evacuate its citizens from the troubled zones without any reluctance, with a determination of ‘come what may’.

COVID-19, एक शांतिपूर्ण युद्ध

चीन के वुहान से शुरू हुआ COVID-2019 वायरस विश्व में 20000 से ज्यादा जानें ले चुका है, और ये आंकड़ा अभी रुकता हुआ नहीं नज़र आ रहा। बात करें अगर भारत की तो विश्व की लगभग 18% जनसंख्या यहाँ रहती है। विगत 3 महीने में अगर चीन के हालात देखे जाएं तो भारत के सन्दर्भ में ये कहना गलत नहीं होगा कि हम बारूद के ढेर पर मशाल लेकर खड़े हैं। अगर समय रहते इस आग को न बुझाया गया तो हमारे पास इटली, स्पेन और अमेरिका जैसे कई उदाहरण हैं।

त्वरित निर्णय की क्षमता का परिचय देते हुए भारत सरकार पहले से ही अलर्ट थी। समयानुसार आवश्यक निर्णय जैसे एयरपोर्ट पर स्क्रीनिंग, आइसोलेशन एडवाइजरी और लॉकडाउन का परिणाम ये है की आज हम ऐसी स्थिति में हैं जहाँ से इस महामारी पर नियंत्रण किया जा सकता है। इसके साथ ही हमारे पास पर्याप्त स्वास्थ्य संसाधन उपलब्ध हैं। इसके बावजूद मीडिया का कुछ वर्ग जनता को लचर स्वास्थ्य व्यवस्था का डर दिखाकर अपनी एजेंडाबाजी में लगा हुआ है।

प्रधानमंत्री द्वारा अपने सम्बोधन में 22 मार्च के लिए एक जनता कर्फ्यू की अपील की गई थी। ये जनता कर्फ्यू आगामी लॉकडाउन की परिस्थिति का पूर्वावलोकन था। इसके साथ ही डॉक्टर, पुलिस, सफाईकर्मी तथा अन्य लोग जो इस महामारी से देश को बचाने में दिन रात लगे हुए हैं, उनका ताली बजाकर या शंखनाद के माध्यम से अभिवादन करने का उपाय भी प्रधानमंत्री ने बताया। आदत के अनुसार लेफ्ट लिबरल जमात ने अपनी प्रोपेगेंडा की दुकान खोल ली कि ताली या थाली बजाना कोरोना का इलाज नहीं है, ये सरकार क्या मूर्खता कर रही है। लेकिन शाम 5 बजे भारत की जनता ने बता दिया की वो इस लड़ाई में सरकार के साथ पूरी ईमानदारी और मजबूती के साथ खड़ी है।

हालांकि इस बात से इनकार नहीं किया जा सकता की भारत में कोरोना के मामले लगातार बढ़ रहे हैं। यह चिंताजनक विषय तो है ही पर साथ में इसके स्टेज-3 में आने का भी खतरा है। स्टेज-3 यानि ‘कम्युनिटी ट्रांसमिशन’ जोकि नियंत्रण के लगभग बाहर ही होती है। इसी की संभावना को देखते हुए भारत में सम्पूर्ण लॉकडाउन की घोषणा कर दी गयी जोकि एकमात्र उपाय है इसे फैलने से रोकने के लिए।

स्वास्थ्य मंत्रालय और विशेषज्ञो द्वारा लगातार चेतावनी के बावजूद कुछ लोग इसे गंभीरता से नहीं ले रहे हैं। सख्ती के बाद भी लोग अनावश्यक बाहर निकलने से बाज नहीं आ रहे। सोशल मीडिया में बिना सत्यता और वैधता की अफवाहें बह रही हैं। कोरोना को लेकर काफी जोक्स भी बन रहे हैं, जिसमे कुछ गलत नहीं है लेकिन इसे गंभीरता से न लेने की भारी कीमत चुकानी पड़ सकती है।

यह एक ऐसी जंग है जो सिर्फ घर पर बैठकर और सोशल डिस्टैन्सिंग से ही जीती जा सकती है। हमें ये 21 दिन स्वयं को व अपने परिवार को ही देने हैं तथा सरकार का पूरा सहयोग करना है। स्वास्थ्य मंत्रालय और डॉक्टर्स के द्वारा निरंतर उपाय बताये जा रहे हैं जिनका हमें पालन करना है। निश्चित रूप से भारत इस आपदा पर नियंत्रण कर पुनः एक बार अपने वैश्विक नेतृत्व की अतुल्य क्षमता का परिचय देगा।

-Prashant Bajpai

Let’s convert this adversity into opportunity!

0

Similar to the current measures being taken during the current Corona Virus Pandemic, in 1665 Cambridge University temporarily closed due to Bubonic Plague. Sir Isaac Newton had to work from home and he used this downtime to come up with calculus and theory of gravity. So hard times are great opportunities for growth. While others panic and follow the non-stop noise, lets see what we can do to make use of this situation.

This situation is unprecedented, and people are forced to be in self-quarantine, work from home. What can we do to make this situation best time for our learning and growth? Here’s what I believe we can do as a community to impact our lives and turn this fear and paranoia into a blessing for our lives

1. Do not binge on sensationalism: Stop subscribing to all the paranoia being generated. Let’s stop bingeing on sensationalism, just stay aware and follow the protocols. Do not pay heed to endless WhatsApp messages, and do not participate in forwarding further.

2. Use downtime to learn new skills: With isolation and self-quarantine, there’s so much we can do to learn online. Revisit your long pending to-do lists of stuff you’ve putting aside for years, learn a new language, develop a new skill, polish your communication skills, pick-up a online course, read a new book. Learn how to impact and teach people with your knowledge. 

3. Reflect within and introspect: When you have this precious opportunity at hand, use it well. Pause and introspect – What do I want from this life? Have I started working in that direction, if yes use this opportunity to accelerate, if not, this is a perfect time for starting that journey? 

4. Re-define priorities in life: Have you been missing out on those deep & meaningful conversations with your parents, spouse or kids. You have been busy with daily grind. Reset your priorities, create those meaningful connections now.

5. What’s your ultimate vision for future? If you haven’t thought about it, do it right now. Contemplate and write down your goals for your life. Think about what you want to achieve in life, but have been putting off. Be specific, create actions steps and start now.

6. Search for your purpose in life: If you are clear on your life’s purpose, the reason for your existence on this planet, every moment is spent in working towards realizing that purpose. When someone is working towards their purpose, it’s the happiest state of mind, and happy minds are in highest state of bodily immunity. No virus can affect you when you are in this state of mind.

7. Avoid Stress: I’ve seen many of my friends complaining of stress, anxiety and even to the extent of having panic attacks on account of social distancing. It’s not so easy for everyone. If you create a small vision for this downtime, create micro-goals and stay in constant action through technology and internet, you can avoid anxiety and stress. Stay in action, achieve something worthwhile, and this can turn out to be a rewarding time.

And lastly, I believe we have been taking too much from planet earth, more than our needs. Let’s shift to minimalism and learn to peacefully co-exist with other species.

I truly believe that this whole global scenario playing out this way is nature’s way of hitting the reset button to remind us of the greatest gift we have called LIFE.

Let’s make it purposeful, create a new identity to fulfill this purpose.

RINKU SAWHNEY, Personal Excellence and Mind-shift Coach: Author of “My Life I Decide: 19 thought-provoking ideas to change your life”

Can telecasting Ramayan during the corona times be a govt priority? Answer is an emphatic ‘YES’

0

How to look at the government’s decision to telecast ‘Ramayana’ serial? There were numerous suggestions on Twitter urging Govt in this regard. On the other hand, soon after this announcement was made, the pseudo secular lobby in the country has begun to condemn it as an act of misplaced priority, at a time. When, it says, the whole country has been bogged down with the Corona pandemic and countrywide lockdown. Let us briefly examine the pros and cons of the decision.  

The whole society cutting across classes is inside home. While the high and middle-income groups do not have financial problems to spend 3 weeks at home, there were grave anxieties about the poor. The government announced a 1,70,000 crore package which sought to address their needs through free or heavily subsidized food stuff and cash grants by way of Direct Benefit Transfer or DBT.

The real problem today for 1.30 billion people is to stay inside home. It is a grave challenge and could be very painful. At the same time, every citizen can do a national service simply by staying inside four walls of his or her home.

In such a piquant situation, this popular serial can render an invaluable service by encouraging people to survive the ordeal of home confinement willingly, cheerfully and with a positive state of mind. If this helps in any way in preventing the spread of the dreaded Coronavirus in India, it will serve as an unprecedented and unique experiment before the whole humanity.

The viewing is not mandatory. There can be no argument that it has been imposed. Why Doordarshan? Because even the poor families can afford to see it as much as others can. The incorrigible pseudo-seculars who see conspiracy in everything and may strive hard to discourage small sections from viewing it, can frustrate this noble attempt as vast majority of Indians may, in any case, stay put at home and thus contribute to a national cause.

There are some suggestions to the government, though. Ramayana has 78 episodes each of 45 minutes duration. It can be telecast over 4 hours in a scattered manner over morning (9AM), afternoon (1 PM), evening (5 PM) and night (9 PM) so that the programme may see India through the critical period of next 20 days at the rate of 4 episodes per day. The mass viewing may additionally impart a spirit of solidarity in the nation and that may be helpful in facing new challenges thrown by COVID 19, if any, unitedly. One more suggestion. Doordarshan may at the start of every episode urge viewers to sit keeping minimum specified physical distance from each other. This message can be reinforced at every interval and at the end so that this habit gets transformed.

At no other juncture of history of modern history such an opportunity was available to the government of any country to leverage the rich civilisational legacy to meet one of the most severe scourges keeping the morale of the people high. The government needs to go ahead and begin the telecast forthwith without caring for criticisms of the die-hard critics, who will criticise, all its action, any way!     

High Speed Internet “need of an hour” in Jammu and Kashmir

0

Its not new thing in Jammu and Kashmir to survive without internet. Most of the time of year internet services remain barred in the region. But since 5 August 2019 after the abrogation of Article 370 this trend changed. Jammu and Kashmir was without internet for more than 5 months and barred internet was restored in January this year.

Internet users were allowed to access to limited websites/apps with low speed 2G internet. Then later on the restrictions on internet were eased. The accessible websites were increased in number and internet speed was increased in Kbs. Authorities then decided to review the restriction but the results were same, each week the review meetings are held but nothing changes except dates of extension of low speed 2G internet.

High speed internet is a need of hour right now, since the spread of deadly Coronavirus (COVID-19) which already claimed 24,000+ lives all over globe, almost whole Union Territory is requesting for the restoration of high speed internet, from UN to USA, from Abdullah’s to Mehbooba Mufti, from congress to Apni Party, from doctors to teachers, from common men to politicians almost everyone requested authorities to restore the high speed internet in UT, as its need of an hour to restore High Speed Internet. 

After the total shutdown of India because of CoronaVirus pandemic, work places allowed and ordered employees to work from home, schools, colleges ordered students to study at home with e-learning and online classes, awareness campaigns, public advisories by Health Departments/WHO for the whole world, but it was never same for people of Jammu and Kashmir. In Jammu and Kashmir Doordarshan started tele-classes for school students but it doesn’t look really effective. In today’s world we all deserve to be globally connected and updated but barred internet isn’t helping at all. 

Authorities should take a chance to restore high speed internet in Jammu and Kashmir if it’s threat to national interests and people of Jammu and Kashmir should use the service in moderate way. People are in desperate need of high speed internet and has become the “Talk of Town” right now. Everyone is hopeful that one day it will be restored in Union Territory.

Roller coaster ride of Indian stock market: Corona virus outbreak

0

COVID 19, the virus that originated in China but grappled the whole world in a short span of few months imposing a huge threat to global economy and financial market. It has already claimed the lives of around 20000 people whereas the number of total infected people are more than 450000. The rising number of deaths is still a major concern. The virus is not only affecting our health but it’s also hurting investment portfolios badly. Its rare sight to see the Indian stock market reeling under the pressure of global slowdown and growing fear of Coronavirus outbreak.

Stock market witnessed a blood bath as Nifty and Sensex went down to a multi month-low. In the history, 23rd march 2020 is the worst day for the equity market when some shares fell by 20-25 percent. Even a company paying good quality of dividend with the track record of 15 years has just been thrashed. As economic disruption can be easily seen in domestic as well as global markets, it’s difficult for an investor to sit calmly in this horrific situation. In a state of panic, the investors are pulling out their money which is further affecting already crashed market.

To safeguard the wealth of investors in June 2001, an Index-based market-wide circuit breakers were introduced by SEBI. Circuit Breaker is basically a band of upper and lower limit with which a benchmark market index are allowed to fluctuate on any particular day. This mechanism is put in place as regulatory check, to curb the excessive volatility and panic selling. The breakers are applied at three stages: – 10 percent, 15 percent and 20 percent.  It keeps close watch on the movement in BSE Sensex & Nifty 50 and it is triggered when either of these indices breaches the mark. When triggered, it brings a situation, where all trading activities in the stock market are brought to a halt. Afterwards, the market reopens with pre-open auction call.

On 23rd march 2020, for second time in just two weeks, the trading in stock market was stopped for 45 minutes. It happened after both the equity benchmarks, Nifty 50 & BSE Sensex touched their 10 percent lower circuits. BSE Sensex was down 2991 points or 10 percent whereas Nifty plunged 982 points or 9.6 percent. After 2008 Global Recession, the first time on 13th march 2020, trading was halted after the sharp fall in both the indices. The market has lost almost 20 lakh crores due to this steep decline in both the indices.

 The uncertainty in the market has further increased as COVID 19 is a global pandemic now and it’s affecting economies across the globe. This has created a downward spiral because investor across the globe are scared and plunging their money out of the market as they are skeptical over the future role of central banks in managing the monetary policies. According to reports, FII’s have been consistently selling their stake, leading to the biggest ever monthly outflow.

Economists from the big investment firm like Morgan Stanely and Goldman Sachs also believe that COVID 19 is pushing economy towards recession and expect growth to fall to as low as 0.9 percent this year globally. The concern of investor becomes pertinent after the recent cut in growth forecast by the Fitch, which conquers with the views of other international rating agency like OECD and S&P. The agency has slashed India’s growth outlook projection from 5.6% to 5.1% for financial year 2020-21, as manufacturing sector in India has taken a severe blow by the spread of Virus. The debate is further aggravated by the Steve Cochrane, an analyst from Moody who said “for the global economy, our forecast has been adjusted down from prior to 2.8%  to about 2.5% for 2020 which is measurably below potential, which means that some countries that are hit particularly hard will see higher probability of recession or rising unemployment rates.”

SEBI has introduced measure of revising the market-wide position limit to 50 percent. The regulatory body expect that this will lead to a reduction in number of short selling position in the stock market. The tightening of rules is essential to manage the extreme volatility and therefore is been hailed as welcome gestures from the investor.

But contrary to this, Indian market analysts paint a different picture. According to them, in past, whenever such outbreak happened, the market took a toll. But simultaneously, they saw it as a huge opportunity from the market point of view and expect that resilient market will soon bounce back, as condition improves. China, which was the epicenter of the virus outbreak, saw its market fall extremely low due to the preventive measures like lockdown taken by the Chinese authorities. However recently, Chinese stock market gained a strong momentum after several months of underperforming market and indices keeping at all-time low. This gives a ray of hope to further believe in a similar V-shaped recovery for Indian stock market. As the stock market is cyclical in nature, there is always turbulence in the market. It’s very difficult to predict when recovery will take place but as seen in the past, the market will recover eventually.

Therefore economists are presuming to have U-shaped recovery curve in context of Indian stock market. May be the downward spiral continues in the near future, reaches a flat bottom which may persist for some time. However as the news of containment of virus comes and situation began to improve, the market will rise upward and hence making it a U-shaped Curve. The chief of Citi Bank, Tobias levkovich, in his recent interview also showed some signs of relief and conveyed that “Direct effects of foregone profits already are incalculable and the secondary ramification on commodity price, make the number even more difficult, but it is plausible that things won’t get worse”. The bank is however skeptical of the investor’s view that the recovery will have V-shaped curve and it believes that there is high chances, the market will recover in U-shape.

 Market expert believes that it’s not first turbulence ever to hit the market and it won’t be the last.   Some experts are of an opinion that it’s a best time to pick long term equity at a cheap value. However, the focus should be on the businesses that have survived the test of time. The investors are advised to not make any panic decision but to follow a basic investment rules. Further, companies without leverage and with cash flow generating characteristics are better option in times of recession. Diversified portfolio across major asset classes and major sector is a key to survive. Another sector which is immune to slowdown is healthcare, especially Pharmaceuticals. The only risk would come from the fresh regulation and essential drug prices control law that government might bring. Due to their stable demand in tough times, acute care and chronic drug companies may emerge as winners. FMCG dealing with essential commodity, having a regulated return could also be a good option to invest. Therefore, the investor need to stay calm and confident that the market will slowly but surely emerge out of this dark time.

Author: Dr. Neha Nainwal, Dept of Commerce, Lakshmibai College, University of Delhi

Can 1.7 Lakh Crore Garib Kalyan Yojana Contain the Economic Impact of Wuhan Virus?

0

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday announced 1.7 lakh crore special package that will cover 80 crore poor people, almost 8.69 crore farmers’s family, 20 crore Jan Dhan Account holder women, poor senior citizens, disabled persons, widows and employees of small ventures. She also announced Rs 50 lakh per person medical insurance cover for doctors, paramedics and ASHA workers.

We have questions. Can it contain the economic slowdown? Is it adequate to daily wage workers? Will help migrant workers, farmers that will face price drop in near future and small businesses that are in pitfalls?

We have to consider that it is not a traditional bail out package. The migrant workers and rural poor need an urgent help for their daily basic needs. In this Health Emergency food and health services are the basic need for every one. We have to feed our vulnerable people. In special package govt will give additional 5 kg wheat or rice and regional pulse for the next three months. This will be over and above 5 kg they already get. Govt has more than 58 million tonnes grains in godowns so far. It will also solve the storage problem of Food Corporation of India (FCI).

More than 20 crore women Jan Dhan Account will be credited with Rs 1,500 over three months. Ujjwala beneficiaries would get free gas cylinder in next three months. Financial aid for poor senior citizens, widows and disabled persons will also help them to run their households.

50 lakh medical insurance cover will also boost moral of our front line fighters. The EPF contribution of both employee and employer would be paid by government for the next three month. This will be only for those all enterprises with up to the 100 employees and 90% of whom salary less than 15,000 per month. Increase in MNREGA to Rs 202 per day from from 182 will also improve purchasing power of rural worker in future.

All these measures show that unorganized workers, daily wage workers and poor are at focal point of govt priorities. Feeding them must be our’s and government’s priority.

Across the India horticulture framers are facing difficulties due to lock down. Government must work on Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for essential services. State governments should also be prepare in advance for coming wheat procurement season.

Krishna built Dwaraka first only then fought Jarasandha and Kalavayana, Modi should save Indians first

Has Modi, our Honourable Prime Minister of India adventured to 21 day India lockdown to prove he is very decisive or to receive applaud from WHO and world community or to really save India from Corona is difficult say because of the visible sufferings of millions of people due to the lockdown. 

Modi has recently invoked Mahabharat war that lasted for 18 days and finally Pandavas won the war to prove a point that India too shall win the war against Corona in 21 day battle.

Indirectly Modi appears to have self-designated himself to be like Lord Krishna who guided Pandavas during Mahabharat war. Now Modi is guiding the war against Corona for 21 days by locking down entire India. 

Indians must tell also about the important sub story in Mahabharata where how Lord Krishna saved Yadus from Jarasandha and Kalavayana, to set the record straight.

Lord Krishna killed Kamsa and as a result, the two wives of Kamsa, daughters of Jarasandha went into deep grief. The grief stricken daughters provoked the anger in Jarasandha who then decided to wage war against Mathura to eliminate Yadavas from earth with his 23 Skshhouni warriors but was defeated by Krishna and his brother Balarama. Although 17 times Jarasandha waged war but got defeated repeatedly.  Finally on 18th time, another warrior called Kalavayana has decided to join Jarasandha to fight Yadavas.  Kalavayana has decided to bring huge number of warriors to Mathura to fight the war.

Sensing the dual danger, Lord Krishna and Balarama decided to build a fortress in Dwarika where no human being can easily penetrate, completed the task and then shifted all Yadavas from Mathura to Dwaraka and saved them from both Jarasandha and Kalavayana.

Dear Modiji, India is already in deep trouble due to demonetization, GST, loss of job and unemployment, slipping GDP etc. All the above problems we can equate with Jarashandha. The entry of Corona can be equated to Kalavayana. Indians have no problem in comparing Modiji with Lord Krishna if Modiji has, like Lord Krishna, first built a fortress, saved the people and then defeated both economic slug and Corona.

But Modiji has clamped all India lockdown and shifted our economy from ventilator to crematorium and affected the livelihood and life of millions and millions of people.

India is not US or European country. Whatever be the magnitude of Corona threat and its global impact, measures must be humane and should not kill India further. In US and European countries, the agricultural zone is separately demarcated and mechanization in agricultural sector is quite vivid. But in India, many small farmers own their land adjacent to residential or human dwelling areas and hence they have to physically attend to the agricultural work daily and otherwise the crop may dry out. 

Similarly the farm animals also need to be feed and watered daily. Most of the farmers’ have the habit of procuring even the most essential commodities from market with their daily wage. When we cut their daily income and market, what those poor farmers will do to live? 

Further what we eat today is been produced and harvested yesterday or day before yesterday.  If we cut the agricultural produce for 21 days, what Indians will have to eat after 21 days? 

What would be the rate of inflation, what would be the level of scarcity of many essential commodities, how haphazard can go the supply chain due to high traffic, how much civil unrest can be the counter product, should India realize and study before lock down for such prolonged 21 days?

Solution to an emerging problem is inevitable and everyone in India will stand with Government but if the solution itself is going to pose bigger problem than the problem of Corona, how we can deal the situation?

Look at the MSME sector. Already the MSME is struggling to breathe due to demonetization and GST implementation.

Now the Corona lockdown will further kill the MSME. Continuous sensitization of people, imposing reasonable restrictions in public place, setting up several micro medical facilities at village level and handing over the modus operandi of how to implement social distancing to district magistrates and the respective state governments should have the best bet than going for all India lockdown for 21 days.  

MSME should have been allowed to function with clear commitment and responsibility; market should be allowed to open with providing all required medical aids like masks, sanitizers, water etc., instead of lock down.

How Modi failed to follow the genius of Lord Krishna who built Dwaraka first and then waged war against Jarasandha and Kalavayana. A catastrophic step will not stop another catastrophe. 

Can we ever build our old India at least in next 25 years, forget about New INDIA.   

2019-n-CoV से पीड़ितों की मृत्यु दर दूसरे कॉरोना वायरसों से पीड़ितों की मृत्यु दर से कम फिर भी बना महामारी का कारण

0

कॉरोना वायरसों का अपना एक परिवार है, जिसमें अभी तक कुल 6 वायरस ज्ञात थे। दिसम्बर 2019 में चीन के वुहान में एक नए वायरस की पहचान हुई, जिसे नोवेल कॉरोना वायरस-2019 या SARS-CoV-2 नाम दिया गया। इससे फैलने वाली बीमारी को CoViD-19 कहा गया। इसी परिवार के दो सदस्य SARS-CoV व MERS-CoV पहले भी पूरे विश्व के लोगों की नींद उड़ा चुके हैं। 2003 में सीवियर एक्यूट रेसपिरेटरी सिंड्रोम से विश्व में 8,000 लोग संक्रमित हुए थे जिनमें से 800 लोगों की मृत्यु हो गई थी। 2012 में मिडल ईस्ट रेस्पिरेटरी सिंड्रोम से 2500 लोग संक्रमित हुए थे जिनमें से 900 लोग अकाल काल कवलित हो गए। इस तरह इन बीमारियों से होने वाली मृत्यु दर क्रमश: 10 प्रतिशत व 36 प्रतिशत थी। नोवेल कॉरोना वायरस से विश्व भर में अब तक 5,03,218 लोग संक्रमित हो चुके हैं और 22,340 लोग अपनी जान गंवा चुके हैं। इस तरह इस वायरस से पीड़ितों की मृत्यु दर 4.4 प्रतिशत है। लेकिन यह बाकियों की तुलना में अत्याधिक संक्रामक है। इसीलिए आज इसे सुपर विलेन की तरह देखा जा रहा है।

नया वायरस होने के कारण इसके विरुद्ध हमारे शरीर में कोई रक्षात्मक प्रणाली विकसित नहीं है। इसलिए यह आसानी से मानव कोशिकाओं में प्रवेश कर जाता है और प्रवेश करने के बाद कोशिका की मशीनरी को हाईजैक कर खुद की संख्या बढ़ाने लगता है।

दरअसल वायरस एक ऐसा अतिसू़क्ष्म जीव है जिसका अपना कोई कोशिकीय तंत्र नहीं होता। यह प्रोटीन के खोल (कैप्सिड) के अंदर डीएनए या आरएनए का सिंगल या डबल स्ट्रैंड मात्र है। कैप्सिड के बाहर ग्लाइकोप्रोटीन का बना एक और खोल होता है जिस पर स्पाइक्स होते हैं। प्रत्येक वायरस की स्पाइक्स पर अपने यूनीक रिसेप्टर बाइंडिंग डोमेन होते हैं जो होस्ट सेल से चिपक कर वायरल जीनोम को कोशिका के अंदर प्रवेश करने में मदद करते हैं। वायरस होस्ट के बाहर सुप्तावस्था में रहते हैं लेकिन जैसे ही होस्ट सेल में प्रवेश करते हैं सक्रिय होकर अपने जीनोम को रेप्लीकेट करने लगते हैं और जीव बीमार हो जाता है। एक बार जब वायरस जीवित कोशिका में प्रवेश कर जाता है, वह कोशिका के मूल डीएनए एवं आरएनए की जेनेटिक संरचना को अपनी जेनेटिक सूचना से बदल देता है और संक्रमित कोशिका अपने जैसी संक्रमित कोशिकाओं का पुनरुत्पादन शुरू कर देती है।

नोवेल कॉरोना वायरस एक आरएनए वायरस है जो मनुष्य के श्वसन तंत्र को प्रभावित करता है। यह नाक और मुंह से होता हुआ श्वास नली व फेफड़ों में पहुंचता है। इसके रिसेप्टर बाइंडिंग डोमेन गले, श्वासनली व फेफड़ों की कोशिकाओं से चिपक जाते हैं और वायरल जीनोम कोशिकाओं में प्रवेश कर ‘कॉरोना फैक्टरियॉं’ स्थापित कर लेता है। संक्रमण अधिक होने पर फेफड़ों में छोटे छोटे एअर सैक बन जाते हैं, जिनमें पानी जमने लगता है और सांस लेने में मुश्किल होने लगती है। इस स्थिति में मरीज को वेंटीलेटर पर रखना पड़ता है।

संक्रमण की आरम्भिक अवस्था में सूखी खांसी, सौ डिग्री फैरेनहाइट तक बुखार, सिर दर्द, मुंह का स्वाद बदल जाने जैसे लक्षण दिखायी देते हैं। इस समय शरीर की प्रतिरोधक क्षमता पूरी ताकत से संक्रमण का मुकाबला करती है। जिन लोगों की प्रतिरोधक क्षमता अच्छी होती है, उनका यह कुछ नहीं बिगाड़ पाता। लेकिन ऐसे लोग दूसरे लोगों को संक्रमित कर सकते हैं। संक्रमण के लक्षण 4-14 दिनों में नजर आते हैं। संक्रमण के समय शरीर में साइटोकाइनिन का प्रवाह बढ़ जाता है। शरीर में सूजन आने लगती है।

चूंकि यह मानव से मानव में तेजी से फैलता है और काफी समय तक संक्रमण का पता नहीं चलता इसीलिए सबको सलाह दी जाती है कि छींकते या खांसते समय मुंह पर कपड़ा रखें। इस दौरान लार के छींटे आसपास न गिरने पाएं, वे संक्रमण का कारण होते हैं। बार बार साबुन से हाथ धोएं।

वैज्ञानिकों का मानना है कि सभी ज्ञात कॉरोना वायरस जानवरों से मनुष्य में आए हैं। इनमें से सार्स, मर्स व नोवेल कॉरोना वायरस को चमगादड़ से उत्पन्न माना जाता है जो क्रमश: सिवेट कैट, ऊंट और पेंगोलिन से मानव में आए माने जाते हैं। चीन में सिवेट कैट और पेंगोलिन को पाला और खाया जाता है। मर्स सऊदी अरब से दुनिया में फैला वहॉं ऊंट पाले और खाये जाते हैं।

सामान्य रूप से कोरोना वायरस एक मानव शरीर से दूसरे मानव शरीर में पहुंचने पर अपनी संरचना बदलता रहता है, जिसे म्युटेशन कहते हैं। लेकिन अभी तक की रिसर्च में सामने आया है कि नोवेल कोरोना वायरस स्टेबल है। भारत व अन्य देशों में मिले नोवेल कोरोना वायरस की जेनेटिक संरचना 99.99 फीसदी वुहान में मिले वायरस के समान पायी गई। इस कारण इस वायरस को रोकने के लिए जब भी कोई वैक्सीन या ड्रग बनेगी वह लंबे समय तक कारगर रहेगी। लेकिन जब तक ऐसी कोई वैक्सीन या दवा नहीं बनती है, सोशल डिस्टेंसिंग ही महामारी से निपटने का एक मात्र उपाय है। इसलिए घर बैठें, सरकार के निर्देशों का पालन करें, योग करें, अच्छा खाएं और शरीर की प्रतिरोधक क्षमता बढ़ाएं।

डॉ. शुचि चौहान

A letter to my fellow countrymen: A physician’s perspective on Coronavirus and India

0

When someone talks about their health, the first thing that comes to our mind is hospitals. The hospitals, healthcare systems, physicians and para-medical staff have become a synonym for health and healthcare. However, it is very important to make a distinction between both these words. The World Health Organization defines health as: “a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity.”1. If we take this definition literally, we can see that the health is a state of being, not a state of disruption. Fundamentally, health can be achieved if we have harmony between our physical, mental and social well-being. Most of us can achieve this harmony even without going to a doctor. It is the times when you have any issues with either your physical or mental well-being, you go to the health system for the fix.

On the other hand, the word ‘healthcare’ can be defined as the structural systems created to regain the physical and mental well-being should some of us are unable to maintain our health for various reasons. While the healthcare can be achieved by various structural systems such as Ayurveda, Homeopathy, Naturopathy or Allopathy. Most of us are mainly familiar with the health systems that are part of the allopathic regime. I am talking about your family physician, your friend who just finished their residency, your father’s cardiologist friend, your dentist; basically, anyone and everyone that you associate with your health today.  

While throughout the history, our healthcare systems have evolved to a point where we can diagnose and cure almost every disease that were considered as a god given curse by our ancestors, we are still unable to create healthy communities; at least not by solely focusing on health system strengthening. For example, if we see the data generated by the OECD.org, the US spends the highest amount of money (10586 USD per capita) on healthcare than any other country on the list.2 However, if we compare the life expectancy of an infant born in USA with other countries, the United States is ranked at number 28 in the same list.2 Clearly, the health system spending is not directly converting to good health outcomes. By no means I am arguing that investing in the health system strengthening is not important. I am just asking a fundamental question: is strengthening our healthcare systems the only way we can be healthy?

Metaphorically speaking, the health system’s role in the game of life is similar to the role of a goalkeeper in the football (soccer) field. In the best-case scenario, the teams are structured in a way that their main aim is to keep the ball away from the goal post. Because no matter how good the goalkeeper is, she or he knows that if the ball comes their way, there is a big chance that they won’t be able to stop the ball. Not because of their incompetency but because of the huge size of goal post. The role of our hospitals and healthcare system in the society is exactly similar to this goalkeeper. No matter how good the healthcare systems are, there will be times when they won’t be able to tackle the burden; especially when the goal post is getting bigger and bigger each day.

As the world is tackling an unprecedented burden due to COVID-19 pandemic. We are seeing how the health systems are struggling to cope up with it. Even for a country like USA (the world’s highest paid goalkeeper), the burden has proven to be invincible. The hospital systems are struggling, frontline workers are getting infected, the health equipment are fully occupied, and the supply chains are breaking down. If this is the case with USA, what happens with a country like India? If we see the same OECD graph as above, India spends the least amount of money on healthcare out of all the countries (USD 209 per capita)2. To give you a context, the average spending of all the countries on that chart is USD 3994 per capita.2 Adding to that, India has the lowest number of physicians per 1000 inhabitants when compared to other countries currently devastated by COVID-19 burden (0.8 per 1000 in India vs. 4.0 per 1000 in Italy).3 While, the health system in India is used to thrive in an environment where resources are not handful, the truth of the situation is that our healthcare system is feeble and under resourced. These facts are especially troublesome when we are fighting with a strong team – COVID-19- that will keep aiming at our goal post, i.e. that will keep sending patients to the ICUs.

In an ideal situation, the goalkeeper should be able to save as many goals as possible. But even if we assume that our healthcare system will be able to tackle the situation in the most efficient way, it will be naïve enough to think that our limited capacity will allow us to cater to all the patients. As per some of the reports in Indian media, the Indian healthcare system has approximately. 40,000 incubators actively available at disposal.4 As per the report by Center of Disease, Dynamics, Economics and Policy, the estimated number of COVID-19 patients in India will range from 13 lakh (1.3 million) to 25 lakh (2.5 million).5 If we just take the present statistics from other countries, approximately 5 % of the patients are estimated to be requiring ventilator support. That converts to a requirement of 65,000 ventilators in a best-case scenario, and a whopping 125,000 ventilators in a worst-case scenario. Just imagine all the players from the opposite team shooting a ball at your goalkeeper at the same time. Even if the goalkeeper is good, he/she will definitely fail to stop 10 balls. For us, the future seems similarly bleak. Even if we wish for the best, the situation will not allow our healthcare system to function at its best.

 Now the imminent question is: how will we be able to tackle the outbreak if the predictions turns out to be true? This question is complicated, and the disease progress is unpredictable at this point in time. However, there is one thing that is certain and is somewhat controllable. That is to make our team’s defense strong. What if our team does not allow the opposite team to shoot for that goal? What if we strengthen our defenses against this imminent threat – COVID-19 pandemic – in a way that allows us to stop the disease from sending patients to ICU. As I mentioned before in this article, the concept of health is totally different from the notion of healthcare. Simply speaking, the health of a person may be determined by what they eat, how they live, in what socio-economic strata are they from (which is somewhat corelated with their education status), what type of job do they do, in which area do they live in, so on and so forth. All these factors will determine whether they will be able to defend against a disease or not. For example, someone who is a vegetable vendor would not be able to completely isolate himself, especially if he is staying in a 2 room house with 8 of his family members.

Even for COVID-19 outbreak, these factors will really determine how we – India – as a country will fight against this outbreak. On a grand scale, as a country, we definitely need to rethink how we define health and healthcare in the future, but for now our primary intention should be just to focus on current outbreak; so that we can pass this phase gracefully and with minimum damage. While it might seem to be another disease, but from what we can see around the world, it can really break our healthcare system and more importantly can have a big impact in terms of human fatalities. Hence, I urge all the Indian citizens to rethink how they want to live for a while. It is definitely tempting to go outside and see what is happening. But as I mentioned before, the only way to tackle this virus is to make our team stronger, and one of our team players is our ability to break the chain. If we break the chain of transmission, we will at least buy some time before the virus shoots for that goal. The catch here is that the virus is a powerful player, why would it stop just by defense from our one player? But isn’t it true that we have ten players (or probably more) in our team? Why don’t we use them? Why don’t we make our team even stronger?

Hence, through this humble letter, I want to request all of my fellow citizens to help us – the physicians, the government and the public health professionals – in making team India strong. For this fight, each and every aspect of our life matters – your hygiene, your education (spreading true information about the disease rather than rumors), the area in which you live (imagine people living in slums where there is no social distancing) and how you treat your fellow citizens. There is no need to panic in this situation. There is no need to be hostile against people who are out there in open. The only way to go forward gracefully is to help one another. You might do it by staying inside, or you might want to do it by avoiding the spread of false rumors on social media.

You might want to do it by appreciating the health workers at 5 PM each day or you might want to do it by donating funds to the government relief funds. You might want to do it by taking care of the family members of your house helps or you might want to do it by supporting the people in lower socioeconomic strata.  Whatever you do to support the nation will only make our team stronger. So, please be considerate and be strong. We can make this happen. As a nation. As a democracy. As a family.