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Are we leading ourselves to recession?

sohailasif
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Are we leading ourselves to recession?

After the big judgement day on 8th of November by our PM Modi to scrap the Rs. 500 and Rs.1000, we have taken a huge move towards curbing the black money. Where all the Indians are concerned on how to avoid the tax penalty or find the loop whole or be worried about standing in bank line.

What I understand by this move that its consequences might lead us to great depression in next 20 years. As of now where the banks have power which they could have not imagined through this move. We all Indians have deposited all the money which we had in the banks and ultimately the money has gone in the circulation of the economy.

So with the flush of cash in the system the largest bank in India, State bank of India on 17th of November announced a reduction in the lending rate as well as on the deposits. This particular move was seen in other banks as well. Initially there were different sources from where a person could get finance without going to the banks as they had little or no collateral securities or weren’t to educated too understand the mechanism of the banking system and even If I talk about business too there were different ‘parties’ though which the cycle of finance used to perish.

But now with demometization move, the banks will be the only major lending institutions where all the people have to come whether willingly or not, because the Black money lenders have been cut off as intermediary.

Now due to the excess money received from this movement, banks will relentlessly approve the loans and disbursing at lower rate and the people which are hit by the demonetization will be the first to grab the opportunity to compensate for their losses, but now with the cushion of the black money which was saved to provide them in their hard time has gone, so during the time of losses they will be the first to be bankrupt.

Then comes the brain child of PM Modi “THE MUDRA LOAN” which was launched on 8th of April 2015, a great initiative, though the advances has crossed Rs. 71,000 core (In January 2016) and as per the scheme it is intended to refinance collateral-free loans of up to Rs 10 lakh given by lending institutions to non-corporate small borrowers, for income-generating activities in the non-farm segment. Thus putting banks in tough position as MUDRA loans can easily slip to non-performing assets (NPA). Thus with such high number of advances there will be proportionately high percentage of provision for bad loans.

FACT -The SBI faces decline in profit upto 61% in previous financial year and have identified Rs.31,352 crore worth of risky loans and kept them on a “special watch”.

As per the last financial year closing 2016 all the 11 PSU banks had booked a total of 12,867 core loss which was mainly due to sudden increase in the percentage of bad loan provision.

With EMI’s being cheap or Credit Card interest rate reduced will encourage wasteful expenditure, now this in turn has two effects on the system firstly economy goes into an inflation and Secondly it will reach to a point where the individual won’t be In a capacity to return the money back leading to insolvency.

In a layman terms, It won’t be long where Indians will eventually start living like the “americans” i.e living off the credit as they have got used to the system and well the same pattern is seen in the youth of our country as of for now.

Now talking about the deposits, the interest on the deposits have also reduced as the effect of demonetization, this will create other major issue because INFLOW OF MONEY in banks will decline because as an investor they would not prefer a low interest yield and also it will have effect on foreign direct investment (FDI).

Pilling up of bad loans of Mudra, increased insolvency and reduced deposit the banking system will come to a halt and thereby crippling the economy and there you have a great depression. We Indians have been saved from the depression because of the INDIAN MENTALITY of savings which even in  the bad times have saved the Indian banks time and time again. But with changing generations and systems we may lead ourselves to  recession.

How A Tweet Questioning The Health & Fitness Levels In India Got Me Branded ‘Stupid’, ‘Privileged’ & ‘Lacking Empathy’

blahfamous
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How A Tweet Questioning The Health & Fitness Levels In India Got Me Branded ‘Stupid’, ‘Privileged’ & ‘Lacking Empathy’

Acting against conventional wisdom that I should refrain from posting tweets that tend to get read differently from their intended meaning or have a different context than what seems obvious, I did this:

screen-shot-2016-11-24-at-2-04-15-pm

Within 5 seconds of posting this, I knew I had dun goofed. Not because I regretted saying what I did. But because I knew that tweet left a gap wide open to be misread, misquoted and taken out of context.

And there it was. Hate comments started pouring in. People with 10 times my followers started manually retweeting the tweet with their own wisecrack about it, and someone even asked if I was “getting paid” for it.

I knew a Pandora’s box had been opened. Though, the unsaid rule of Twitter is to not feed the trolls and understand that most people are not as offended by your tweet as much it’s an opportunity for them to garner some RTs by trolling you, I knew I couldn’t let go of this. Because it’s not nice that someone accuses you of “being privileged” or lacking sympathy when it’s totally the opposite ( I’m okay with being called ‘stupid’).

So, let me explain.

Over the last 2 weeks, since PM Modi announced the landmark, if controversial, demonetization policy, the initial public support and “wah wahi” has quickly turned into dissent. Cases of public being inconvenienced, marriages breaking up, people committing suicides and “death by standing in an ATM” have been breaking out all over media. (Even though curiously, most of the polls whether by a supporting or opposing media have seen majority vote ‘support’ for the move.)

We know, that this move was purported to fight corruption, circulation of fake currency in the market, and as a necessary byproduct of invalidating 70% of currency, encouraging a digital and cashless economy. Reasons, on the face of it, noble enough for the average person like me to support it. But like with every policy as drastic as this, it’s come with its fallouts. Which I’m well aware of and not trying to look past.

While  public inconvenience and distress was more or less expected, things get serious when deaths are involved. The thing with deaths is, you can’t be objective about it. People’s emotions are involved, and rightly so. 10 deaths are 10 too many, 1 death is one too many.

So, my tweet that questioned the health and fitness levels of people who have been collapsing to their deaths touched nerves, and that’s ok. What I didn’t mean to do was though, trivialise the deaths or mock old age, but highlight two things.

1.  Health is a bigger issue here

Much unlike what clickbait headlines will have you believe, standing in long ATM queues’ isn’t the cause, but the trigger. If you can die *just* because of standing in an ATM queue, then yes health and fitness levels are an issue. People who have died from standing in the queues is because they were old, in frail health and/or had dangerously low fitness levels. No one in an ideal world should be dying from standing for long. Feeling dizzy, tired perhaps, but not dying.

Death from standing is serious, and should draw attention to the bigger issue. Are we so frail as a nation that physical activity that happens suddenly does us in? Shouldn’t we as a country (outside of all the cash and demonetization issue) aim to be fitter, more health conscious and above all prioritise physical activity on a regular basis so the one time we HAVE to do it, we don’t succumb?

If today they’re made to stand at ATMs because of one policy, tomorrow it could be to collect essentials outside a ration shop, or to “get darshan” of a deity at a local religious function. Have you not heard of people who have died from trying to do “chaar dhaam ki yatra” in their old age? Why are we not angry then, that people prioritise being pious over their health? In some cases, the poor people have no choice but to stand in queues because they need the cash immediately. These cases are rare, but they exist.

And if people who are in ill-health and in danger of collapsing due to standing for long, then we need to step in. Banks need to provide seating outside ATMs, station water dispensers. Temporary labour employed by the banks to stand in for a certain age group could be considered. In fact banks are already doing a good job of having special days for senior citizens. Adult children of old people should volunteer to withdraw money for them. Heck, you and I, can volunteer to help out. But are we? With a move this drastic, we all need to step in to make it easier for everyone. Airing opposition on social media just fuels blind hatred.

2. Media bias

Every death being attributed to ‘standing in ATM queues’ isn’t a result of the standing itself, but because of other causes that were for furthering political agendas were misquoted or amplified to make the government look like absolute devils.

I’ve read status msgs, I’ve read reports, and I’ve also read confessions from people who have been at the receiving end of the ‘ATM crisis’ that the family members they lost was not during the ATM queue or because of it, but because of other issues like heart attacks, accidents and murders in some cases. By simplifying a death by demonizing demonization you’re feeding these political trolls who seek to garner public support and stoke rage against the government by playing sympaths.

Take for example Mamta Bannerjee who’s suddenly the champion of the old and poor, when farmers in her own state die. Also, the fact that West Bengal, of which she’s chief minister, is amongst the poorest states in India. Arvind Kejriwal is having a field day vilifying the government. Kejriwal who rose to fame because of his claims to fight corruption.

Liberal media outlets like Scroll, Huffington Post and others are playing up deaths and misery, without carrying a single piece on the positives of the move. ( My favourite is how robberies have come down because no cash to steal. :P) . I also absolutely refuse to buy reports of “demonetization deaths” from the same media outlet that instead of lamenting an open case of  dowry, glorifies it by blaming the government for “breaking up a wedding”:

screen-shot-2016-11-24-at-12-51-21-pm

Calling out logical fallacies in the demonetization is welcome, using it as a bait to further agendas and ‘anti national’ feelings isn’t.

3. Hypocrisy involved

Some of the worst critics of the demonetization policy tend to cite the plight of the common man and the poor who’re suffering at the hands of it. Interestingly, many of the same people are people who ill-treat their maids, are rude to waiters, and think nothing about haggling with the poor for a a few rupees while shopping. Why, some people I personally know consider it a skill to drive the best “bargain” at a local market even if it comes at the cost of some poor person being forced to sell at low price because he has mouths to feed. Same parallels? Not the same thing I agree, but perhaps, having sympathy for the poor will be a lot stronger if it was followed with action.

Just to quote an example, we have a house help in our house, whose services we don’t really need, but we have him because the man’s poor and in need of a job. Similarly, in my brother’s office, we support a lot of immigrant labour and help them earn a respectable living. I’ve never personally ‘looked away’ or held contempt for a beggar and tried to help them with food or money (if they’re old or genuinely handicapped) I try to put my money or my labour where my mouth is. Empty words on social media are easy.

4. Economic ramifications

I’m not sure at this point anyone in the country can really predict if demonetization will help. At best, we’re  all speculating. Some parties would choose to stay optimistic and cite the millions of cash that’s been deposited into banks the last 2 weeks. The same cash will help banks mobilise funds to lend to public at lower rates and lend to the government to go towards government projects (what you call bonds). This, to my mind, from how much economics I know, is good for the economy.

Plus, when you encourage the country to open bank accounts, instead of hoarding cash, you’re also creating a habit of earning on their savings and investments. Cash lying in suitcases and storerooms isn’t good for anyone. And that black money hoarders are going to be wary going forward, is a reasonable assumption to make. And all this will come at a collateral damage. No constructive activity ever happens without winners and losers.

Do we know how many poor people lose their lives at construction of skyscrapers that become our homes, offices and malls? Do we know how many people die on the road because some rich f*ck had to speed? Or simply how many poor people suffer because we choose to buy from supermarkets and e-commerce stores instead of local vendors? It’s a sad reality. The poorest always lose.

Do I believe that the government should have planned this better? Absolutely. Do I think that demonetization is the sole cause of every problem plaguing India? No. If anything, it’s bringing to light, just how deep our troubles run.

10 arguments against demonetization and why they are flawed

Sunil Mishra
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10 arguments against demonetization and why they are flawed

So the combined firepower of (dis)united opposition, shrill media , tax evaders, black-marketeers and intellectual apologists only consist of less than 20% disapproval of the recent scheme on demonetization, if a recent survey by C-Voter needs to be believed in. There is a convenient way to dismiss this survey by questioning the authenticity, methodology, sample size etc.

However if one critically examines the arguments presented by the opposition, there is a clear answer why they find themselves on the wrong side of the public opinion.

Argument 1 : There was no planning

On a lighter note, the opposition was right here partly (for a different reason), it came as complete surprise to them. They thought it would be one of the regular homily and rhetoric as part of PM’s address to the nation. They had not prepared for such a drastic step by the govt. Just 4 hours to deal with a calamity like this ?

However a deeper analysis revealed that it was well thought through and very secretly planned, probably many months before. People brought to notice the Govt. push to create bank accounts (for seemingly no reason that time), voluntary disclosure on black money and repeated warnings to the black marketeers. In a large country like India a sweeping change like this cant be a overnight thought.

Probably it was a bogus argument, the opposition soon realized it and they looked for other reasons.

Argument 2 : The execution was disastrous 

Once the planning logic did not work, the point raised was it was horribly executed. The proof point – the Govt. kept changing the limits, dates guidelines etc. There were 17 changes one opponent pointed out; this depicts that it was a complete failure. There are still queues at the ATMs and banks; it is causing inconvenience. Some have predicted the money shortage to continue for at least six months (based on printing capacity).

As the saying goes “the first casualty in any real battle is the battle-plan” and it is not necessarily a bad thing. The initial plan should be built for change – tactical operations should constantly change to suit the ground conditions. The queues are shortening is the sign of progressive success. Moreover this logic backfires if one questions back – what are the suggestions to improve the execution ?

Argument 3 : What about so many people who have died

As per some unauthenticated estimates more than 70 people have died – what was their fault? They died because of demonetization. Even if the situation improves later they cant come back.

The ‘death politics’ is a trap that the govt has refused to play along. It is quite simple – if they dispute the numbers they would be called insensitive etc, if they accept then they would be asked to apologize and resign. Very clearly the govt has sidestepped this. The fact is that all deaths are unfortunate but forcefully co-relating that to an event like this is even more unfortunate.

Argument 4 : The poor are suffering the most

This argument seems most innocuous and selfless, especially if presented by well meaning intellectuals. It is not themselves that they are worried about, but their poor maids, drivers, the vegetable vendors, farmers etc. They cant survive the currency ban and someone needs to talk on their behalf. Media has taken this cause most vociferously provoking painstakingly with a studio mike with the people standing in long queues.

The fact is that most of the poor people are elated by this move (as shown by the survey also). They are feeling for the first time they are richer than the rich. They have disappointed the media apologist by not responding to their purported anger on this policy. Many of them have shifted to digital payments or banks.

Argument 5 : Why not first catch the big fishes and Swiss account holders

There were big violators and black marketeers that was known to the govt. Even a small kid in India knows that the back money is kept in the Swiss banks. Only 6% cash is black – why to inconvenience the entire 1.25 billion for this move.

This is the most obfuscating argument – confuse the actor with so many choices that no action will ever happen. But the cost of inaction is sometimes higher that even the least optimum outcome. The small tax evasion is as bad as big black money hoarders. It is the mindset that needs to be questioned from all across. The logic of catching the big thieves first before the smaller ones is not acceptable argument

Argument 6 : What about intellectuals like Larry Summers who said it is chaos and disaster

There are few intellectuals who have called this move as chaos and disaster. This reminds me of a friend during our CAT GD preparations – he would always pick the most indefensible part of the argument (e.g. higher education is bad for the society), he would struggle with the argument but he believed since he defended the most discerning view he got more attention and has better chance to succeed.

The intellectual world is full of such lone discerning attention seekers. If they thought exactly like 80% of the population, their exalted credentials would be worth little. It is not to be forgotten that Larry Summers is one of the same intellectuals who could not predict the US economic chaos when the world slipped into 2008 economic crisis.

Argument 7 : The long term impact on GDP will be devastating

The safest prediction always start with “in the long run….” because in the long run everything is true and everything is false. Do we remember the prophecy that Raghuram Rajan’s exit will wipe out 100 billion dollars from Indian economy in the long run? Is that prophecy right or wrong – we can never tell till we complete this long run.

Argument 8 : Supreme court has said there will be riots

The opposition found a great support in Supreme court comment but it was more of a candid suggestion to the govt rather than any incrimination of their policy. They clearly said the intent is right.

Incidentally, our courts getting uncomfortable with longer queues and suggesting to expedite it was a bit of irony as many have pointed out. Anyway the riots did not happen and are unlikely to happen by wildest imagination.

Argument 9: Black money also helps the economy in someway

This was one of weirdest argument that luckily did not find too many supporters as it was self incriminating. The logic was that the same black money is used to pay for goods and services and it helps the economy. The same black money becomes white when someone pays tax for it.

This argument did not need active debunking as it fell by itself. This logic is like some crimes help at times or telling lies help us in some situation – hence we should adopt it as a policy.

Argument 10 : This is the wrong timing, why do it now

This is generally the last argument when all others don’t work. This is the marriage season in India, farmers are sowing seeds, Christmas orders for export market etc etc. The Govt has not chosen the right timing where there would be no impact.

The fact is that in a country like India there is absolutely no window when there are no marriages, export or farming activities. The choice was to keep waiting (as for last 70 years) or act with some urgency; the Govt chose the later.

***

Are all the arguments over ? Not yet – they have still not used that minority, communal and anti-woman bill argument; but as the saying goes – “when you find trapped yourself in a ditch – don’t dig deeper”.

As for the rest of the tax paying citizens – they have woken up richer and certainly wiser by paying up taxes all these years.

The real story of crocodiles and small fishes in relation to demonetization

ironyman0007
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The real story of crocodiles and small fishes in relation to demonetization

A stupid analogy to demonetization is doing rounds on the internet. The analogy says the water is dried in the pond to kill crocodiles, but the crocodiles live on land as well. Hence the small fishes in the pond have died.

Well as stupid as this analogy is, I have a different view. And this I think is the better analogy for what is happening right now:

The water is not dried in the pond. It is exchanged with colder and chilled water. So that the crocodiles have to dig a hole and are forced to go into hibernation. These are difficult conditions for a crocodile’s survival. And the fishes are given a chance to shift to a warmer fresh water lake through a small pipe.

As the fishes are in the allowed size limit (the pipe; the banking system), they migrate to the warmer habitat, while crocodiles are big and they have to stay back. They are rattled and worried.

It’s an inconvenience for the fishes. But they still want to do it. They have suffered enough from the crocodiles.

This is not easy to understand for them who don’t know shit about crocodiles.

The fishes are now awaken. The authorities have to take series of steps so that the pond remains cold and the crocodiles are forced to remain in a forever hibernation mode.

Crocodiles know that things can improve if winter is seen through. Hot sun will rise (massive protests by opposition) and save the crocodiles from the cold water. To make sure things don’t get worse, they need the fishes to stay back, so that more chilled water is not added by the authorities.

So they try to confuse the fishes. They stop them from going to the warmer fresh water lake. They want to portray themselves as the spokesperson of the fishes. They cry for their inconvenience. And they say that fishes have died.

However, it also for the fishes to understand that even if crocodiles cry, it’s the tears of a crocodile.

प्रोपगैंडा प्रभु रवीश कुमार

Puranee Bastee
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प्रोपगैंडा प्रभु रवीश कुमार
सिगरेट, तंम्बाकू और शराब के उत्पादों पर उपभोक्ता को होनेवाले नुकसान के बारे में लिखा हुआ रहता है परंतु इन चेतावनियों के बाद भी लोग हानिकारक उत्पादों का सेवन और गुणगान करते रहते हैं।

व्यसन के उत्पादों से सीख लेते हुए पत्रकार रवीश कुमार सोशल मीडिया के साथ साथ अन्य मंचों पर टीवी कम देखने के लिए कहते रहते हैं। अब रवीश कुमार से अच्छा इस बात को कौन जान सकता है कि टीवी समाज में जिस जहर को घोल रहा है वो समाज के लिए कितना हानिकारक है।

‘प्रोपगंडा’-प्रभु रवीश कुमार के लाख मना करने के बाद भी कुछ मित्र रवीश कुमार का कार्यक्रम देखते हैं और फिर कहते हैं कि रवीश कुमार ‘प्रोपगंडा’ करते हैं। मित्रों जो व्यक्ति लोगों के मरने की खबर बताते हुए भी चेहरे पर मुस्कराहट रखता हो उससे आप ‘प्रोपगंडा’ के अलावा और क्या उम्मीद रखते हैं? यदि आप कुछ उम्मीद रखते हैं तो दोष पूर्णतः आपका है ‘प्रोपगंडा’-प्रभु का बिल्कुल नहीं।

रवीश कुमार जितना ईमानदार पत्रकार मैंने और नहीं देखा है जो आपको साफ – साफ बता दे कि मेरे द्वारा बताई जाने वाली खबर एक ‘प्रोपगंडा’ और इसे देखने से आप डिप्रेशन में जा सकते हैं क्योंकि मेरी खबर जहर के समान है इसलिए इसे ना देखें।

समाचार चैनलों के इस युग में अच्छा टीवी पत्रकार वही बन सकता है जो अभिनय जनता हो। समाचार को चेहरे के एक्सप्रेशन से जनता तक पहुंचने का हुनर रखता हो और अपनी आवाज में वो दर्द रखता हो जो आपको उसकी बात मानने के लिए कन्विन्स कर दे। ठीक वैसे ही जैसे आप प्रभु को पाव किलो लड्डू चढाने पर उनकी मदद जरूर मिलेगी इस बात के लिए कन्विन्स हो जातें हैं।

मैं रवीश कुमार से भी निवेदन करूँगा कि वो अब अपने कार्यक्रम की शुरुआत करते हुए कहें, “मैं प्रोपगंडा प्रभु रवीश कुमार आपका प्राइम टाइम में स्वागत करता हूँ, मेरे लाख मना करने के बाद भी जब आप टीवी देख रहें हैं तो मैं आपको बताना चाहता हूँ की इस कार्यक्रम में बताई जाने वाली सभी खबरें काल्पनिक हैं और इनका किसी भी जीवित और मृत व्यक्ति के साथ संबध मात्र एक संयोग माना जाएगा।”

नोट : ऊपर लिखी गई सारी बातें सच्चाई से लबरेज हैं, यदि इन तथ्यों का रवीश से मिलन ना हो तो यह मात्र एक संयोग है।

Was demonetization placed right in the sequence of strategy roll out?

sensecurator
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Was demonetization placed right in the sequence of strategy roll out?

It has been a fortnight since the “surgical strike on black money” or “demonetization” as it has been termed, was announced by the Government of India. Since then, while the citizen of “Bharat” are lining up at banks to exchange currency, the citizen of “India” have lining up as armchair economists making arguments for and against the move, peppered by limited statistics, only that which supports their case.

The discussion started with grand rhetoric’s like “Surgical strike on Black money”. Surgical by default builds in the concept of precision and completeness but if the target was a billion people and exchange of 86% of the currency in circulation, such a move could hardly ever be that. Further, it does not require one to be an alumnus of London School to figure that all of the informal cash economy is not black and as such, any move that inconveniences the majority to target a minority is questionable, as is also being argued.

The discourse has graduated to examining the executional challenges and gaps around this decision (including the lack of planning). But I dare say, planning or the lack of it is not the central issue.

To get to the central issue, let’s leave the rhetoric’s and rewind to the few facts we know. There are a few clear reasons articulated by the government for this action. To borrow straight from RBI’s press release on the subject – to tackle counterfeiting Indian banknotes, to effectively nullify black money stocked in cash (repeat stocked, not to tackle regeneration) and curb funding of terrorism with fake notes.

Follow up pointers from official sources suggested that this move was a sequential step, as part of larger series of measures, in targeting black money so as to move towards a formal, digital economy. And clarifications were also provided on the “need for the element of surprise”, citing the loss of purpose had it lacked surprise, even at the cost of inconvenience.

That background brings us to the central issue or question – was this particular decision of demonetization placed in the correct sequence and timed correctly in the larger context of the intentions as are being pointed out (to deal with counterfeit and or stock black money)? And equally important, could the surprise element be avoided, which potentially would make the implementation challenges faced currently a non-issue?

What do I think? I think that there is nothing right or wrong about demonetization. But I argue that the element of surprise was unnecessary and it is only because the sequence was out of place, it called for the element of surprise.  And only because it was (unnecessarily) launched as a surprise, the government is left fire-fighting with new sequences of decisions to “manage” the challenge.

To argue this, imagine a tax evader or even a terrorist with hordes of cash sitting with them. Now imagine them being told that certain large denominations will not be legal tenders as of a later date say 1st April, 2017 or even later (you have many more months and no surprises here). Till such time, anyone can still use the old currency but banks and ATM’s will start dispensing new currency with immediate effect, with the idea that over time, through new circulation and exchange, replacement of certain denomination notes would be complete ie Demonetization would happen but at a later date.

Needless to say, such a decision, which allows old currency circulation and provides for a gradual switch, would not have overburdened the exchequer to feed the demand of new currency in such a short time and certainly would not have led to the pains and economic impact being felt (or suggested). The executional challenges that are currently debated would have been a non-issue.

Coming back to our counterfeiters and black money hoarders, who were the real targets; what do you think they would do given the extra notice period provided for? They would do exactly what such people have done after what was announced (even if suddenly) on the night of the 8th November. Convert to bullion, perhaps buy property (including benami), pay advances in cash, use mules to spread money in deposits, clear old dues, report a surge in income for current financial year in cohort with their CA’s and the likes of what Indian media has been reporting. As a result, the government is pushed into a reactive (and threatening) mode to prevent such action at the cost of undermining its own credibility given the everyday changes to policy.

Apart from some unpredictable “jugaad” coming into play, the modus operandi of those that beat and cheat the system is largely predictable (we largely know how cash in black is ‘managed”). In short, if such people did know about a demonetization coming up, they would use the predictable means as they have done post the announcement. Sure, some portion of the black money would be channeled out then as it has also been now. But that’s where it gets interesting. By giving them time, you actually encourage them to resort to those practices of laundering. But by timing policy in the right sequence, you could have used that as bait.

Here is how. If demonetization was among the last pieces of the jigsaw and would come later (it potentially would be still required to deal with the counterfeit challenge), the sequence would first plug gaps and improve reporting and compliance so that there is eagle eye over the standard and predicted routes of laundering cash. Many of these would include the post hoc decisions announced post demonetization but seemingly after as-if being caught unaware. The extra timing could have also used for and resulted in even higher banking penetration and capacity building for better acceptance and use of plastics/digital money.

The role of sequencing and timing is as essential as any strategy itself because of its impact on implementation effectiveness. Sequencing decisions such that one feeds into the next would have potentially identified people that fit a certain questionable profile (not claiming all of them would be guilty). But for sure, that would be a much smaller number to strike on (surgically) rather than inconvenience the majority of the country garbed under the misguided need for surprise. And India could still “demonetize” – do away with larger denomination currency to curtail the regeneration of black money. PM Modi could still be termed “audacious” and so on.

If anyone is to argue that this is easier said than done, my only retort is “isn’t that what the government is doing but only after; then why not before”? Unless we are saying, to catch a thief, you need to think like a thief – perhaps be one, and the current establishment is not? Leave that to the readers.

Why it is in our own interest to print currency of lower denomination

Bhimashankar Sanga
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Why it is in our own interest to print currency of lower denomination

The war on counterfeit cash is taken to the vanguard by Modi’s demonetization move. However, a low-quality fake Rs 2000 note was noticed in Ahmedabad. The fake 2000 notes that emerge in the market evinces a sign of the sophisticated heights that banknote counterfeiters have managed to reach.

With the advancement in printing technologies, RBI has added various features like pushing string of redesigns, use of complex colors , fluorescence , latent image and optically variable inks, watermark portraits, extremely complex machine engravings, micro letterings, numbering patterns, angular bleed lines, reflective foil patches, holographic strips etc. making the notes ever harder to copy. While government is trying to dismantle counterfeit currency, counterfeiters continue to reverse engineer, innovate and simulate all the features. The tussle between the two factions is not likely to end anytime soon.

RBI and security agencies have recovered and seized 25 lakh counterfeit notes worth Rs 122 crore between 2001 and 2014(up to 30th June). More than 13 lakh Rs 500 fake denomination notes were in circulation between 2011 and 2014.  The next most circulated counterfeit currencies were  of  Rs 100 and Rs1000. ). This may sound like a relatively small number, but that’s no consolation if you fall victim to a fake note.

Year 2011 2012 2013 2014
Rs. 1000 165433 175623 55446 99050
Rs. 500 308259 530317 386462 112981
Rs. 100 162695 205058 169119 65875
Others 31215 26981 16281 3450

Source-http://164.100.47.132/Annexture_New/lsq16/2/au1721.htm

The overall printing and circulation of legal tenders of all denomination increased by 40% from 2011 to 2016, printing and circulation of Rs 500 notes increased by 76% and Rs 1,000 notes increased 109%, according to RBI.

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Source-http://164.100.47.132/Annexture_New/lsq16/2/au1721.htm

During  late nineties, notes of Rs 100, Rs 50, Rs 20 and Rs 10 constituted 3/4th part  (nearly 70%)of the cash economy. During 2004-05 the value of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes in circulation surpassed the combined value of other denominations. Now, the value of Rs 100, Rs 50, Rs 20 and Rs 10 constitute only 15% of cash economy and value of money of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes has catapulted to a staggering 85%.

The higher currency notes are printed and circulated, there is higher risk of counterfeit money flowing in.  The only possible solution to curb counterfeit currency is to stop the printing of high value currency.

The onus of finding the authenticity of the note lies with the note bearer. One can get the minute details of all currency notes on this website- https://www.paisaboltahai.rbi.org.in/. Deliberate use of counterfeit currency knowing to be such is punishable under IPC section 489C.

Dear Arvind Kejriwal, I once considered you a hope, now I consider you a menace

Sumit Kumar
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Dear Arvind Kejriwal, I once considered you a hope, now I consider you a menace

Arvind Kejriwal, once the alleged crusader of anti-corruption movement is hell-bent these days to demonize the government’s move on demonetization.

Initially I thought that it was a general outcry from a person who opposes everything done by the union government just for the sake of opposition. But the way in which he started peddling malicious lies to corroborate his indefensible argument about demonetization tells the hatred and abhorrence with which his mind, body and heart is filled with.

Earlier he shared a picture in which a man had committed suicide alleging that the suicide happened because the person failed to get his money from banks after standing three days in queue. However, the truth was that the person committed suicide in the bank premise because he had entered the bank to rob the money but as the police arrived. He committed suicide with no other option left to him. The person who had originally tweeted the erroneous news later deleted his tweeted, but the muffler man lacked the courage to apologize to the nation for spreading misinformation and the tweet still stands in his timeline. Read about the incident in detail here.

Social media has been constantly misused by anti-social elements to peddle misinformation. But when a person, who is an ex civil servant and holds a constitutional position at the NCT of Delhi does it, it should worry everyone, including the Kejriwal Bhakts who like and retweet every juvenile stuff shared by their god, especially the one who run that news portal Janta Ka Reporter, in which the writer, editor and the reader, everyone is an Aaptard.

I know, when this piece reaches Kejriwal, he would dismiss the article by claiming it to be written by a bhakt. But sir, whether you believe it or not, I was one of the teenager who was inspired in watching the debates over politics after you formed the Aam Aadmi Party. I thought that you will bring a paradigm shift in the discourse of politics in this country. I thought that for you India would be above everything and that you will not allow your identity and prejudice to wane down the spirit of reform and development you promised to the people of this country.

Believe me sir, me and my friends in my college and school days, none of them were linked to any political party (though I know you and your team will link me with BJP in any scenario but if you see any contrarian voice of your’s as a manufactured BJP disagreement i am pretty OK with that ), but we all supported AAP because we thought that you will bring the change our country needs.

But, as the time passed by, as you compromised with Mamata and Lalu, things changed. And you have been revealing and exposing yourself especially on Twitter. Today you spread another lie about Adani getting bank loan, and another day cunningly tried to play the religion card by saying that BJP does not care for Hindus. All this reflects your greed and lust for getting more seats in elections even at the cost of national unity and chaos.

Anyway, we have understood that we have been fooled and cheated by a person who vowed to change politics. Other than the four fold increase in allowance of you and your MLAs, nothing has changed. The person whom we looked upon as god is more dangerous than the demon itself.

Sir, believe me, you have lost your shine and credibility in the youth of this country. You have not become just another political party, but you have become worse than any other political party because you know, at least the big leaders of other parties don’t spread rumors and talk like an uneducated fool.

The other side of Demonetization

sohailasif
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The other side of Demonetization

Responses against the demonetization is largely based on the people inconvenience of standing in the bank line, and deaths tolls raising due to hunger, and now even apparently STD (seriously?).

Even when this was not enough media/people started coming up with conspiracy theories  of the PM indulging and conspiring against his on country. I personally believe we Indians are big hypocrites because we want everything and along don’t want to put an effort towards it.

There was a very good tweet about the same – “Our Government does nothing, it’s useless, And when it does , ye kya hai, g**du government!”

I don’t want to be insensitive, but I want to ask people who are sensitive towards the deaths of poor people, which is being linked to demonetisation, if they ever wondered about number of deaths caused by hunger and poverty, which are often the results of corruption and black money?

According to latest FAO estimates in ‘The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2015” report, 194.6 million people are undernourished in India. By this measure, India is home to a quarter of the undernourished population in the world. And I will add some facts with quantitative data for your reference 3,000 children in India die every day from poor diet related illness 24% of under-five deaths in India 30% of neo-natal deaths and 194.6 million people go hungry everyday.

So by this count, people have been dying out of hunger but that particular news doesn’t reach the common people, perhaps because these aren’t news worthy. No one keeps a count of how many are dying. No death tolls are flashed as is being done now. We just can not blindly follow what the media people throw at us.

Now talking about the planning and implementing the same; bringing the topic to a micro scale where you plan an event of marriage, you do the planning for months but there are some things you consider and some not, but in the end you do pull it off by implementing in on the way. Just like that brother, they have come up with many problems which were not accounted, but are changing according to the situation.

People thought there were loopholes in the system and tried to convert the black but again they controlled it, when and where necessary. For example Railways tickets were seen a hike in bookings and cancellation, with the news came up and a solution too. That does not mean poor strategy or poor planning.

My point here is the way the media puts in big letters of the loss which has been resulting due to the demonetization, but they fail to understand that this is just an cash crunch in the system, a temporary crunch which will eventually stabilize.

Where the rich with unaccounted money are spending at restaurants, pubs and other and forced to stay and put a limit to their expenditures. At a point you might say that this areas of expenditure have been running on a profit as they were fueled /pumped by the rampant black money in the market which now no longer exists, these people have had their share of candy and now they are forced to spit it out and apparently they are the ones who are or INDIRECTLY are revolting against it.

And why don’t we take a moment to see the other side of the coin? Where due to demonetization, the flow of money has been directed towards the banks. In economics, there is a theory called Multiplier Effect, where every time there is an injection of new demand into the circular flow, there is likely to be a multiplier effect. This is because an injection of extra income leads to more spending, which creates more income, and so on. The multiplier effect refers to the increase in final income arising from any new injection of spending. Just imagine the 2 lakh core deposit in 13 days in banks do when they will be running smoothly after the chaos settles. This is just one glimpse of digital India.

Along the same line, I would also add to this is that with time we will move towards equality in terms of taxation, where the salaried individual is forced to take the full burden of tax payments and the business class people enjoy the loop wholes in the system.

This is the time to walk and unite with the leaders and work for the better India.

बिगबॉस, हमारे केजरीवाल को भी बुला लो

Puranee Bastee
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बिगबॉस, हमारे केजरीवाल को भी बुला लो

प्यारे बिगबॉस,

मजाक – मजाक में आप भी दसवें सीजन में पहूंच गए ठीक वैसे ही जैसे केजरीवाल दिल्ली की मुख्यमंत्री बन गए। राहुल रॉय से शुरू हुआ सफर राहुल महाजन से होते हुए अब कहाँ पहुँचा है यह तो आप ही जानते हो या सलमान खान जानता है लेकिन कार्यक्रम हर साल आता है तो TRP अच्छी ही होगी।

बिगबॉस जी जहाँ तक मेरी समझ है , आपके कार्यक्रम में उस व्यक्ति को सर्व प्रथम मौका मिलता है जो अपनी असल जिंदगी में कुछ विवादों में घिरा हुआ होता है। क्या यह सच है?

यदि विवाद वाली बात सच है तो आप लोग के कार्यक्रम में शामिल होने के लिए एक व्यक्ति दिल्ली में दिन-रात मेहनत कर रहा है लेकिन आप लोग उसपर ध्यान नहीं दे रहे हो। मैं आपसे निवेदन करूँगा कि, “मेरे अरविंद केजरीवाल बहुत विवाद कर रहें हैं और आप जल्द से जल्द उन्हें अपने घर में बुलाकर 75 दिन के लिए रख लें।”

बिगबॉस जी यदि आप अरविंद केजरीवाल को अपने घर में बुला लेते हैं तो दिल्ली के साथ – साथ देश की जनता आपके द्वारा मानवजाति पर किये गए इस उपकार को नहीं भूलेगी और अरविंद केजरीवाल को बिगबॉस के घर के अंदर बंद रखने के लिए एक करोड़ का चंदा देगी।

प्यारे बिगबॉस आपके कार्यक्रम की TRP बढ़ाने के लिए ऐसा बेहतरीन प्रतियोगी फिर नहीं मिलेगा और यदि आप अरविंद केजरीवाल को बिगबॉस के घर में रख लेते हैं तो मैं भले बिगबॉस ना देखूं परंतु रोज बिगबॉस प्रसारण के समय टीवी चालू करके आपका शो म्यूट करके कार्यक्रम की TRP को बढ़ाने में मदद करूँगा।

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