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Left establishment and its cheerleaders in media trying to derail demonetisation

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Left establishment and its cheerleaders in media trying to derail demonetisation

The indomitable Mark Twain said – It is easier to fool someone than to convince them that they’ve been fooled.

This has long been true in the case of India. Propped up by state patronage the Left has built up its hegemony in many fields especially the liberal arts including the media. The media too used this opportunity spread lies and propaganda.

Recently the Demonitisation of Rs 500 and 1000 notes was announced by the PM to tackle the problem of black money. Most people welcomed this move as a much needed crackdown on black money. But as always, the opposition parties whipped up a frenzy saying the move was anti-poor and would increase the amount of black  money in circulation. It seems like deja’vu; now more ’eminent’ citizens have written to the government asking it to rollback the demonistisation, reminiscent of the Award-wapsi.

It also saw uniting of very unlikely parties , the TMC reached out to the CPM. But in what seemed even stranger was that the Shiv Sena an ally on the BJP joined the TMC in its anti-government stance claiming it was due to the ‘plight of the citizens’. In spite of people coming out in support of the scheme and many countries  thinking of following suit. When political parties feel for the poor and ordinary citizens one can expect sophistry of the highest level.

Where there is the foul stench of deceit can our vulture like journalists be far behind. Many  journos instead of getting the correct information to the people started their own campaign of misinformation. Deliberately spreading rumours about price of salt. Some like this in the name of the the ground journalism lied to people right in their face.

After the dust seemed to be settling many started claiming that many bad loans of people like Mallya had been waived off among whom were spokespersons of Congress, head of the CPM , ‘journalists’ and the secular stalwarts at JNU. But it turned out that the loans had been merely written off not waived more on that here.

These are Orwell-esque times. The very concept of objective truth is fading. The media and the opposition are spreading lies and deceit and fanning the flames of anti-government sentiments. In this environment of lies and deceit another Orwell quote comes to mind ” In a time of universal deceit – telling the truth is a revolutionary act”.

How the demonetisation drive will help in improving internal security

Baba Leopard
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How the demonetisation drive will help in improving internal security

November 8, 2016 is being hailed as a red letter day for India, by Indians the world over. On a day, or should we say,  a rather warm November evening, the Government of India slaked an implacable blow at the very heart of the vast unaccounted black economy of the country.

At precisely 20:16 hours, the Prime Minister in his first televised broadcast to the nation, ‘Demonetised ₹ 500 and 1000 currency, with effect from 00:00 hours on 9th November, 2016.

The news shocked and shook the nation, almost like a ‘Nuclear detonation’, and within minutes, social media and TV news was abuzz with the repercussions, thereof.

Economic pundits, politicians, business and industry, analysts, and people from all walks poured out their reactions, which continues to reverberate till now.

Amidst the jubilant mood of the vast majority of people, came voices of dissent at the ‘most unexpected move’ by the incumbent Government of India. Who were these people expressing unhappiness over the decision of the Government, and why?

Among the most vocal voice to dissent with the policy decision, was Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, expressed displeasure in a series of tweets. Incidentally, Bengal is a sensitive region, along with North East and Jammu & Kashmir, for internal security due to illegal immigration and terrorist infiltration.

We are not going to delve into politics of the Demonetisation policy, but we shall look into what has been the repercussions of Demonetisation on internal security, and its implications:

1. Entirely, and I mean 100% of Over Ground Networks of Azadi supporters, Pak back militants, and mukhbirs for terrorists in the wide state of Jammu and Kashmir have been destroyed- without firing a single bullet.

2. It has been cross verified that terrorists waiting at launch pads across Line of Control, have been sent back to training camps deeper inside Pakistan, and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.

3. Separatist leaders in Kashmir have suffered similarly because their existing flow of cash funds through various illegal banking channels (hawala transfer) have been affected.

4. Militants in North Eastern states of Manipur, Nagaland, Assam, and few operating in Arunachal have suffered a crushing blow due to their inability to use their existing stocks of currency notes.

5. Security Forces have been put on heightened alert to strike, near known points of operations of these terror outfits.

6. Other than active militants operating in Assam, Manipur, Nagaland, Arunachal another group which has been equally affected by demonetised currency, are the left extremists in anti naxal operations area.

7. Media reports have pegged the loss to active naxals at ₹ 7500 Crore. However, security forces involved in Anti Naxal Ops do put the figure at around ₹ 9,000 Crore+

Some political entities have claimed that millions of common citizens are being affected by the repercussions of demonetised currency, however, reality is these women and men of our esteemed political establishment have been most affected by the decision of Govt of India.

Political leaders who speak for the people, are in spirit speaking for themselves, and the loss suffered at the collapse own financial structures.

These leaders have for long controlled the internal mechanism which has been allowed to thrive, in turn helping them sustain their political power.

Hence, it is important for us to understand which are the areas affected by demonetised currency and how.

A. Jammu and Kashmir: Drugs, illegal weapons, terrorism, militancy, over ground workers for separatist/secessionist, espionage on security forces.

B. Bengal: Cross border smuggling of cattle, human trafficking, narcotics, weapons transit from other states, local arms industry, bootlegging, chit funds, FICN transit, real estate, property syndicate, religious conversion, hawala transit.

C. Bihar, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana: Illegal weapons transit, bootlegging, maoists, naxalite camps, jihadi groups in jungles, real estate mafia, FICN, Illegal arms, extortion, etc

D. Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan: Real estate, drugs, weapons trade, hawala, FICN, cattle smuggling, human trafficking, underground terror groups.

E. Uttar Pradesh/Uttarakhand: Religious conversion, illegal weapons trade, FICN, Drugs, real estate, espionage on armed forces (veterans), hawala, etc

F. Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka: Narcotics, FICN, hawala, religious conversion, arms proliferation, Naxalite camps.

G. Maharashtra: Hawala, FICN, religious conversions, weapons proliferation, real estate, drugs, Naxalites etc..

H. Gujarat: Hawala, Bootlegging, cattle smuggling etc.

All the above structures are heavily influenced by and thrive with support of political entities and regional satrap.
It is this structure which has suffered most owing to demonetised currency.

No small wonder, some politicians are shouting the loudest against demonetisation of 500/1000 currency. Not for the people, but for the massive loss to their own financial interest and support.

It is for the people of India to wake up to good and bad, the right and wrong, and realise the magnitude of the decision of the Government.

Inconvenience caused to the people will be temporary, inconvenience those who have caused harm to India, will be permanent, and have far reaching consequences in the days, months and years to come.

(for more please follow this Twitter thread on how internal security is being impacted, and follow this thread for political comments)

Trump’s Economic Diplomacy – A Pundit’s view

Naagesh Padmanaban
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Trump’s Economic Diplomacy – A Pundit’s view

As President elect Donald Trump and incumbent President Obama work out details of a smooth transition, Americans and the world at large will keenly follow how the incoming administration takes shape and influences their lives.

trump_obama
Trump with Obama

Many challenges await the new administration. Hot button issues on the domestic front will undoubtedly dominate Trump’s attention. As he assembles a top talent team, Trump has promised economic revival as his top priority with immediate focus on Tax reforms, Infrastructure, Healthcare and Immigration. If he can pull this off, it will be unprecedented and generate millions of jobs for middle America.

As part of this quest, the new administration will certainly reassess US participation in economic and trade agreements. It will seek to renegotiate or redraw these agreements to promote American jobs. Most likely, the Transpacific Trade Partnership (TPP) will be replaced by a new trade agreement.

The Trump administration’s heavy economic agenda will likely be reflected in its foreign policy initiatives also. Economic Diplomacy will dominate while erstwhile interventionist doctrine may take a back seat, if not abandoned altogether. This could mean that the US may scale down its involvement in conflict zones and other problematic areas of the world. This new diplomatic doctrine will put the spotlight on four areas – Europe, Russia, China and India.

Relationship with Europe will require a lot of sustained and energetic work. It is no secret that many European leaders have been skeptical of Trump. Their reactions to Trump’s election have ranged from nervous to outright undiplomatic. For example, the French ambassador to US raised eyebrows with his ‘undiplomatic tweets’ that he is reported to have subsequently deleted. German Chancellor Merkel’s response to Trump’s election was terse and calibrated. These reactions have publicly exposed the underlying discomfort among European allies.

Traditionally, the US has almost had a mystical influence on Europe. Despite differences, mostly bilateral, Europe identified itself with the US as an extension of itself. At least till Trump came on the scene. Trump had been critical of Germany’s intake of Syrian refugees during his campaign. He had also wanted the allies to contribute their fair share for the maintenance of NATO. Trump’s bluntness and his trademark lack of political correctness has soured relations.

It must be mentioned here that much of this disquiet among leaders about Trump has spawned from the fact that they tend to see and read Trump literally – word for word. They see his political incorrectness, but miss the larger message, often relying on an image portrayed by the media to understand him. But the media too, as seen in the election cycle, is guilty of misreading and missing Trump’s larger message. The sooner Europe gets past this mindset, the sooner will Trump reach out to them.

But the fact is that an economically weakened Europe needs the US for recovery. In return the US too needs Europe’s support in establishing Western might across the globe. This mutual dependence and a long history of partnership will endure and continue to sustain the relationship, albeit with creases that can be ironed out. But that should not dismiss the angst in Europe as the incoming administration works with individual European allies and the EU. However, with his native shrewdness and ability to strike deals, it may not be long before Trump and the allies are back to business as usual.

The North Atlantic Treaty Alliance (NATO) has been predicated on a communist threat from Soviet Union. But after the collapse of the Soviet Union, many strategic analyst have rightly questioned the need for NATO. Trump may be right in questioning the huge cost of maintaining the alliance, given that there are more pressing economic issues at home. But any rethinking on NATO only opens a host of other issues that may not be resolved easily or quickly. That may tie down Trump’s hands on any decision on NATO.

Trump will take a fresh look at relations with Russia. During his campaign, he had mentioned that he was open to improving relations with Putin. There is confluence of interest, at least in eliminating ISIS from Syria. But if Trump reaches out to Russian and succeeds in building new bridges with Putin, there may be early resolution to the conflict in Syria. This may also impact east Europe and reduce tensions there. This will be important from EU’s perspective. Any reduction in tension with Russia will also spur trade and that is something an economically bruised Europe is looking forward to. But the cold war era warriors and policy wonks in Washington may not easily come around to reaching an understanding with Russia and hence the problem is likely to fester.

US relations with China may not see any significant change. Even though Trump has talked about China stealing American jobs, no precipitate action may be forthcoming. In fact, Trump’s deal making skills will be helpful in negotiating better trade deals with China. How far he can bring backs jobs from China to USA will be a moot question. The US is a high cost center and manufacturing will be expensive, even if tax concessions are offered. On the other hand, China will maintain its currency advantage and enjoy lower costs of production. This will be a real challenge for the Trump administration.

India offers a lot of opportunities for the new administration. Indian Prime Minister has already reached out to Trump and congratulated him. President elect Trump has openly expressed his admiration for Modi. But beyond diplomatic niceties, India has a lot of work to do to step up the relationship with the US. India’s initiative to boost manufacturing under the ‘make in India’ initiative and Trump’s focus to bring back jobs to the US may appear to be at loggerheads. But the reality is that there is significant room to maneuver a mutually beneficial win-win trade deal. For instance, while India can buy US arms, frigates, aircrafts etc., it can also be a huge market for green technologies – solar energy, digital smart city technologies, desalination technologies, waste disposal industries just to name a few.

Also huge opportunities lie in deepening a regional strategic cooperation that is already in its infancy. For example, Trump and Modi could inject new vigor to the ‘Pivot to Asia’ strategy that could have long term impact for US as well as regional stability in Asia.

अरविन्द केजरीवाल के नाम खुला खत

deemagsepaidal
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अरविन्द केजरीवाल के नाम खुला खत

प्रिय केजरीवाल जी,

जिस दिन से करैन्सी डिमोनेटाईजेशन की घोषणा की थी उसी दिन से पूरा भारत आपके विडियो की प्रतीक्षा कर रहा था। कोई देखना चाहे ना चाहे पर आजकल आप विडियो जारी जरूर करते हो।

खैर. नोटबंदी वाले दिन में मेरे दोस्तों से कह रहा था कि कुछ लोग इस निर्णय को सही ठहरायेंगे, कुछ लोग गलत मगर केजरीवाल जी इस पर केवल आरोप लगायेंगे। और हुआ भी वही, आप आते ही मोदी ये, मोदी वो, बीजेपी वाले पहले बदल ले गये पैसा, अडानी ने नोट बदलवा लिये, अम्बानी ने ठिकाने लगवा दिये।

अरे सर, इनमें से किस बात का सबूत है आपके पास ? और एक तो ये आपके सुत्र, वो ये बता रहा था, ये वो बता रहा था, जानकार ने ऐसा कहा, उसने वैसा कहा। माना कि आप के पास कोई काम नहीं है फिर भी नाई की दुकान पर बैठना बंद कर दीजीए, कुमार विश्वास या संजय सिंह को एक्सपर्ट मानना बंद कर दीजिये सर। जहाँ से कुछ भी सुनके आ कर ट्वीट कर देते हो।

अब आते है आपके विडियो पर,

1. आपने बोला कि 2,50,000 से ज्यादा जमा करवाया किसी गरीब/किसान/ईमानदार आदमी ने उसे 200% पेनल्टी और कारवाई होगी ? मतलब हद है Ex IRS साहेब (अब इसमें भी मुझको पूरा शक है) किसान ने जमीन बेची तो चाहे 25 लाख जमा करवाये, पर खरा पैसा होगा तो उस पर कोई कारवाई नहीं होगी, होगी तो केवल बेईमानी के पैसे जमा कराने वालो पर। तो प्लीज लोगो को बरगलाना छोड़ीये और सच बताईये देश को

2. 500-1000 का नोट बंद कर के 2000 का नोट चलाने की क्या जरूरत थी ? भारत में Average ATM Withdrawal हर ATM से लगभग 10-15 लाख हर दिन है। और  अगर 100 का नोट ही ATM में रखा जायेगा तो एक ATM 2-3 लाख से ज्यादा नहीं रख सकता। तो फिर रोज का काम कैसा चलेगा ! सबसे बड़ा नोट इतना तो हो जिसमें कम से कम एक जुत्तो की जोड़ी तो आ सके। पर आप को तो केवल आरोप लगाना। खैर…

3. आपकी दी हुई लिस्ट मे जिनके नाम हैं उन सबको गिरफ्तार कर लो ? आपने शीला जी के खिलाफ 400 पन्ने लहराये थे उसका क्या हुआ,

मोदी जी की डिग्री फेक बतायी उसका क्या हुआ ? ये सब छोड़ो ओर अपने गिरफ्तार हुएँ कुकर्मी विधायकों की लिस्ट बनाओ।

देश के प्रधानमंत्री को आप “कायर, मनोविकारी बोलते हो, मजीठिया को  तु-तड़ाके से, अम्बानी, अडानी को गालीया बकते हो, पुलिस वालो को ठुल्ला” किस हक से आप जनप्रतिनिधि बनने के लायक हो ?

आम आदमी हो पर 400% सैलेरी लोगे, आम आदमी हो, पर बिजनेस क्लास में घुमोगे, आम आदमी हो, पर डिबेट करोगे तो केवल राहुल सोनिया से, अमरिन्दर सिंह से नहीं। एक बार अपने गिरेबान मे झांक कर बताओ किस ढंग से आप “आम आदमी” हो

2 साल में दिल्ली में आपने कोई काम किया नहीं (असल में दिल्ली में आप रहे ही नहीं) सेना का आपने अपमान किया, उन पर सवाल उठाये, पुलिस के लिए आपने रोना रोया शिला दिक्षीत भी तो थी ना बिना पुलिस। आपके अब तक  के कार्यकाल में आपने एक भी ढंग का काम किया हो तो वो बता दो सर  पर आपको काम करना कहां है। बस आरोप लगाना है।

खैर… आप को ये सब पढ़ कर कुछ फर्क नहीं पड़ना क्योंकि आपका मकसद मुख्यमंत्री बनना था और अन्ना से ले कर योगेन्द्र यादव से ले कर प्रशान्त भूषण सबको धोखा दे कर आप अपने मकसद में सफल हो गये और अब आदत से मजबूर हो कर देश को धोखा दे रहे हो।

अब ये तो जरूर है कि आप का बचा कार्यकाल तो हमें झेलना पड़ेगा पर हाँ, “काठ की हांडी बार-बार नहीं चढ़ती” ।

Answering some skeptics who think demonetisation is of no use

soulinexile
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Answering some skeptics who think demonetisation is of no use

Is it a “Wow Modi” or a “Mad Modi”  move – A Rs 14,000,000,000,000 question?

The nation is divided, there is no denying that. No, I am not referring to the divide deep in the middle in America over Trump’s election. Modi’s Surgical Strike on Black Money has had the same effect as well. Approximately 14 lakh crore worth of 500/1000 rupee notes are being demonetised, and the nation is divided.

On one side are those who support Modi on this…

They believe… (ok.. ok.. I can’t pose as if I am neutral). We believe, that this is a master-stroke, a death knell for black money hoarders, tax-evaders, terror funding, drug mafia, hawala, fake currency networks, tax-evasion in property/wholesale/bullion markets, corruption in every govt office around you and a huge strike on deep-pocket-elections.

Many had been suggesting this. Some were expectant that Modi would do it, after Modi heard ArthaKranti for 2 hours, when the meeting was scheduled for 15 mins only. We acknowledge that there will be inconveniences for next few weeks. But we believe that the impact is huge, and worth the pain in short-term. Actually, far more worth.

And maybe, some of us are over-rationalising the benefits, under-estimating the losses, over-simplifying the pain caused, over-estimating the change – Just being bhakts.

On the other side are the skeptics, naysayers, and many others…

Political leaders and their followers who must endemically oppose anything Modi does because their supreme leader says so, apart – this side includes a range of common people too.

People impacted because they have black money (yes, real common middle class people – that uncle who ‘sold his flat in Delhi last year, half in cash’ kind), traders/businessmen who deal in cash only and maintain alternate books for cash dealings, the corrupt babus, that lawyer/broker/consultant/doctor who wanted payment in cash only… I have no sympathies for any of them, even though – mind you, a good chunk of them (esp traders) are Modi voters.

This side also includes a significantly mass of honest people – massively displeased with the inconvenience caused. Long queues at banks, many ATMs not operational even after 3 days, cash in hand limited, events planned that need cash. Genuine situations that a common man doesn’t want to be hassled over are becoming a pain.

To such people I say, “Sorry! Inconvenience is no doubt regrettable. Just please bear with it for the sake of nation building…” – just what the PM himself said.

And then, there’s is a segment which is largely confused. Again, genuine well meaning, honest tax paying people – but skeptical of this whole change. Skepticism mostly seeded by an activist media. They have many doubts, objections, concerns… like…

But what about black money in gold & real estate?

When Modi formed SIT and started going after the Swiss bank cases (since all that’s in court now & not in news… doesn’t mean its not underway) – the retort used to be, “Swiss banks are a sham. Most of black money is inside India itself. What about that?” Now that its being targeted, the goalposts are being shifted.

To paraphrase the classic Amitabh Bacchan line: “Jao pehle usska black money lekar aao jisne gold mein rakha hai, real estate mein rakha hai… fhir cash walo ko pakadne ki koshish karo!”

Should there be no action taken by traffic cops on under-age or unlicensed drivers, just because there are still drunken drivers around?

The corrupt would stash their loot in all of them – Cash, gold, real estate. If the cash is detected in this strike, natural sniffing will follow for the rest (unless they just burn those money bags). Anyways – in a scenario of tightening of black cash economy, that gold or real estate is also going to feel a pinch. How does a corrupt babu now encash that benami property – if it cant be an easy all-cash deal?

But where is the black-money? I don’t see anyone with money-sacks in those queues!

You are right. So are Rahul Gandhi and Kejriwal.

Today the queues are teeming with hardworking honest common man. The moneybags are missing.
And thats the whole idea of this exercise.

The evaders are now facing a death-risk dilemma. Rip-open those concealed chambers and deposit those bundles with banks, lose heavily in penalties and risk deeper investigation where even their ill-gotten gold/real-estate may come into view. Or bite the bullet & just burn the cash and hope nothing further comes along.

Isn’t that still a win for you as an honest Indian?

But a one-time action is pointless!

Possible. For now, just look at this as a one-time purge. And given the gigantic estimates of black money, this is a massive reboot. Purge at all levels. Think of every-time you felt a pang of disgust, when you saw news of raid on corrupt revenue officer, police honcho, PWD engineer, that IAS babu & his clerk – revealing atrocious amounts of stash. All those ugly piles across the country will be neutralised. Not to mention the ones you never heard of. Even for a one time result – that is a big win.

For IT coders – think of it as a bug-blitz for now. Your code has accumulated 100’s of defects. Customers are hurting. You aren’t able to catch up. A weekend or month long bug-blitz inconveniences all the engineers. You still do it – even though you know it is not the end of it all. More will follow in future.

Why this purge? Stop black-money at generation point itself.

Till Hogwarts starts shipping “Magic-wands for governance reforms”, we will have to have some patience…

Demonetisation is just one step in a longer chain of actions. For decades, there have been loopholes abound. Overhaul takes some time and effort. Process has begun. From Jan-dhan to DBT to more steps in GST, and a clear push for cash-less economy.

For other steps, stay tuned. Its just intermission yet – “picture abhi baaki hai, dost”. If Modi is ready to willingly antagonise his traditional voter base in trading community – either he is politically suicidal or has a bigger longer grander vision for India ahead.

But why inconvenience the common man? Directly catch those who have black money!

Again, Agree with inconvenience. Wish there were indeed GPS chips (just like that rumour) that could directly zero in on the corrupt tax evaders.

Govt, RBI and above all the banking staff across all banks is working tireless to ensure smooth implementation and minimise inconvenience. Approx 8-9 crores of footfalls have been serviced in first 2.5 days already across all banks. Yes, there are still queues at the banks. Just bear with it for a few more days.

Think of it just like the inconvenience we face at airports, railway stations and other places – when we go through security checks. To catch that one potential terrorist – tens of millions of genuine peace loving passengers bear with some inconvenience across the world everyday.

Or just think of it as little penance for our bad karma too. After all, we all have at some time enabled this menace – that bribe we paid at the property registration office, that gold you bought without bill…

But I am an honest tax payer? What’s my incentive here!

The biggest incentive for the honest tax payers today is – blissful sleep and a big smile at the thought that s/he has nothing to worry about.

Haven’t you been always angry that a minuscule minority in India pays direct income tax? That the big neighboured grocer, that friendly consultant, the contractor who did your house… all of whom earn handsomely well – but don’t pay any taxes, because they only deal in Cash all the time.

Now, when they deposit their cash – they will get scrutinised. No, they need not be all evaders. But you grudged them nevertheless. They may still not be taxed if exemptions/benefits allow – but scrutinised for sure.

(and if you can trust my instinct on this, stay tuned for tax cuts for you – but not before Budget 2018)

But my maid/driver don’t have a bank account! How will they manage?

When Modi launched Jan-Dhan Yojna, wish you had paid attention to PM’s appeal to the educated urban citizens to help their less privileged workers & guide them to open bank accounts, get insured.

More than 25 crore Jan-dhan accounts have been opened in under 2 years. Assuming an average family size of 5, it bought a humongous chunk of Indian citizens under banking network at an amazing speed. Every single MNREGA worker today is paid through their bank accounts. More than 19 crore of them have RuPay cards. Close to 10crore Life Insurance policies created.

Wish you had prodded your maid/driver too. But don’t worry, its never too late. Please guide them now.

But, whats the point? Those with black money will convert their 500/1000s to the new Rs 2000 notes now! Big deal, now they can store/transfer it more easily.

This one confuses most.

First, to convert anything to 2000 note, the existing 500/1000s need to return to the banking system. There is no way for someone with say 50 lakhs of cash hidden in 500/1000’s to convert it without working it through a bank. And once it hits bank, IT scrutiny follows. That’s the basics of this purge.

Yes, black money created in future can be stored in new 2000’s notes. But in future, 500/2000 notes are going to be in much limited supply, as per RBI – unlike the 87% share 500/1000’s have today.

Come on, there are lots of tricks for them to convert. People are finding workarounds to bypass banks. Those with black money will escape!

You may be right. We Indians can be quite innovative at it. No one in govt would have thought that the 72 hour railway/airline ticket exemption could also be abused to launder money. That sure was shockingly quick innovation. Evil minds are fast. But it became known and plugged pretty fast.

That’s where we as honest citizens must do our bit. If you hear of a new trick, new laundering technique – report it. Finance Ministry and RBI has helplines running 24×7 at 022-22602201/022-22602944.

Non-sense. None of this is going to work. This is a crazy Tughlaqi plan. This is Financial Emergency! Draconian Action! Undemocratic! Everything he does has been crazy, always! Modi is MAD!!!

Only Time will tell. Maybe you are right.

And if you are, people will punish him for it in 2019.

Even then, think of it. This inconvenience is a small price to pay for the mass awareness you are getting within days across India about his madness. Imagine the amount of effort, speeches, rallies & campaigns, advertisements opposition would have needed to explain it otherwise to whole of India.

And here Modi is facilitating it himself, with a political suicide. Why stop him?

Sit back and relax…. You may have won 2019 already.

(UPDATE: part-2 of this article has been published)

Letter to PM regarding unethical exchanges of old currency notes

pwnprm
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Letter to PM regarding unethical exchanges of old currency notes

Dear Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modiji,

Very happy and proud on the bold decision taken by the government to scrap old high value notes popularly called demonetization. The people are supporting overwhelmingly even if a bit of difficulty is faced. It is because of a ray of hope that corruption will come down and people owning illegal earned money or black money will be taught a lesson.

The current rules of currency exchange seem to have some loopholes. The no. of times a person is exchanging (upto ₹ 4000 as of now) is nowhere checked causing influencing people mostly politicians using their followers to exchange their money kept in cash.

For example, a person having 1000 followers or supporters gives old currency of ₹ 4000 to each of those 1000 people. Most supporters being nowhere in job or business can do this whole day. Assuming 4 times a day a person stands in queues, total money exchanged goes upto ₹ 1.6 crores (4000 * 1000 * 4) in a single day. In 50 days, a very big amount may get converted to new currency. This new currency can be used the way old currency was intended to be used and the purpose of a bold decision may be ruined or success rate may come down drastically.

Many banks are asking to deposit in accounts and immediately withdraw as required upto permitted limit. This is very good and checks unethical exchanges.

It is earnest request to put a check immediately on the people exchanging old currency. Also, a notice that people depositing big amount (say 1 or 2 lacs) in their accounts may lose their BPL status will be very helpful as there are reports of people using their domestic helps and known poors to deposit money in their accounts.

Thanks and regards
Pawan Kumar
Kolkata

cc:
Hon. Pranab Mukherjee, President of India
Shri Arun Jaitley, Finance Minister
Shri Urjit Patel, Governor, Reserve Bank of India

U-turn is passe, Arvind Kejriwal has now started doing somersaults

CrimeMasterV2
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U-turn is passe, Arvind Kejriwal has now started doing somersaults

By now you may have seen hundreds of U-turns by Arvind Kejriwal. Any new U-turn he makes is hardly surprising. But he is so rattled by the Demonetization move by the central government that he started doing somersaults.

In May 2013, following an expose about banks involved in money laundering, Kejriwal claimed that India was on sale by its banks. He even tweeted that “Bank officials admit money of many politicians getting laundered.”

tweets by Arvind Kejriwal
Kejriwal in 2013: Banks were bad

Around two years later, in Feb 2015, when AVAM (a breakaway group of AAP) exposed 2 crore funding to AAP by dubious donors, Kejriwal issued honesty certificate to Indian banks, which were only two years earlier selling the country and laundering politicians’ money according to him. Suddenly his faith in Indian banking system was restored.

The party said “India’s banking system makes it impossible to launder money”. AAP leader and ex-banker Meera Sanyal said that you can’t even put black money worth 50 lakh in any Indian bank.

kejri-u-turn-2
Kejriwal in 2015: Banks are good

This is just one of many U-turns by Kejriwal which is not surprising. But now Kejriwal has lost faith in Indian banking system again.

Most Indians have supported the Demonetization move by the central government, despite the inconvenience it has caused them. One expects ‘anti-corruption crusader’ Kejriwal to support this move, but he is trying his best to discredit it. He did a press conference to make silly and easily verifiable allegations against the central government.

He has claimed that thousands of crores of black money has been deposited in banks. As per Kejriwal, last year in February under Modi’s rule, it was impossible to deposit 50 lakhs in an Indian Bank but now thousands of crores of black money is deposited in banks “suspiciously”.

kejri-u-turn-3
Kejriwal’s second u-turn; a somersault

This made me think why a smart politician like Kejriwal doesn’t care about taking a consistent stand or explaining his frequent changes in stand to his supporters. Maybe he thinks that his supporters will believe anything he says and never question him. He wants to keep them engaged in silly conspiracy theories.

After Jaitley clarifies that marginal spike in bank deposit in last quarter is due to the release of arrears by pay commission on 31st Aug, I don’t expect Kejriwal to apologise for misleading people. If one conspiracy theory is debunked, he will move on to the next one, and in the process doing further somersaults.

Demonetisation – why you should support PM Modi, and why people are happy

Rachit Tiwari
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Demonetisation – why you should support PM Modi, and why people are happy

Twitter user @a_muglikar, commonly known as the elder Muglikar, as he is the elder brother of Ashutosh Muglikar (@muglikar_), has set out some fantastic observations on the recent Demonetisation move by the Govt of India in two twitter threads. I am reproducing the same below in essay form, with due permission of the elder Muglikar, so that this can be shared widely with people beyond Twitter, because if definitely articulates what a vast majority of Indians are feeling / saying and not whats being shown by the Mainstream Media.

Twitter Thread 1 – 10th Nov 2016

A ‘hard reset’ has been pressed into action. Only possible way to clean up some sectors like real estate & other cash only ‘mafia’ sectors:

  1. Did Modi make powerful enemies? No. No new enemies.
  2. No new enemies? Old ones only. Same folks jolted
  3. What to expect now? Chaos? .Yes. Not anarchy. But chest-beating of the ‘Intolerant’ nature.
  4. Will this reset work? Yes. Massive earthquake has hit black money mkt
  5. Will this mean no more black money? No. Indians are Jugaad kings. They’ll find new means to launder monies.
  6. Why this reset then? To eliminate existing black money & to put a fear that such unpredictable hard resets can happen anytime. Disincentives to hoarders.
  7. The biggies escaped. What’s the use? The Kings/Queens may have survived. But their underling armies/systems are wiped off for now.
  8. What does this mean for the govt now? When your nation’s enemies are dealt such a decisive blow (though not fatal), one gets TIME……Time to bring more hard measures while simultaneously fortifying nation-building efforts.
  9. What should an honest layman do now?..Enjoy this moment. Then focus on their work. Someone at the top is fighting the good fight. They should contribute by being their BEST..! Thank you @narendramodi @PMOIndia. Jai Hind

 Twitter Thread 2 – 12th Nov 2016

Continuation of this (above) thread below.

I stood in line at an ATM today for about 35-40mins. EVERY SINGLE PERSON in line was all praise for Modi. ALL of them said, ye temporary dard hai. ek-do din mein sab routine ho jaega banks ka.

I was wondering why. Why are so many people so happy? Almost an epiphany. I realised that it’s about Honour & Honesty. For too long, ppl kept losing faith in ..the system and even if they wanted to be honest, the system never rewarded that behaviour. This #SurgicalStrikeonBlackMoney has rekindled hope. Hope that there is someone in this system who can ‘reset’ it. Reset it to a point where Bad Karma of corrupt folks is punished… All the people who are queuing up in banks & ATM’s, well, their years of raging at the system has finally turned to JOY.

Joy..! Such a simple emotion to have. People move mountains for hope. Modi has given the Honest Hardworker not just hope, but joy. Imagine…. Imagine what that does to you. If you’ve played the honest game, then this momentous occasion is for YOU. Feel it. It is Transformational

I spent my time in the line spreading that joy. Everyone in that line will go back home smiling. For once, Honesty is generously rewarded.

Remember the man who is making this possible. Support him wholeheartedly. Modi has taken a bet on me, you, our people, our honesty.

Keep the faith. Be your personal BEST. I’ll repeat. Someone at the top is fighting the good fight. I’ll do my bit..!

Arrogant left is not able to digest Trump’s victory

gaseouswho
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Arrogant left is not able to digest Trump’s victory

On 8th November America went to the polls. What happened next almost led some to tears. Trump ended up clinching the presidency. From being a reality TV star and entrepreneur to winning the election, it has been quite a journey for Trump. Probably the best example of the ‘American Dream’.

The journey though was not a simple one. From being an outsider in his own party, he has managed quite the turnaround. His victory signified a change which had begun several years ago; the decline of traditional ‘legacy’ media and the rise of new age media. Traditional sources of media not just in India but around the world have left-liberal biases. Bias would be too weak a word to use though.

A poll showed that most Indians distrust the MSM. Their influence has been waning fast. But it seems they still over overestimate their reach and credibility. All MSM around the world rallied behind Clinton. Accusing Trump of misogyny  they exposed their own hypocrisy.

MSM channelled their inner Nostradamus’. Poll after poll showed a landslide victory for the democrats. But these news outlets weren’t  all that neutral and had vested interests in a Clinton victory. They had donated heavily to the Clinton campaign. Many major celebrities like Miley Cyrus, Katy Perry (whose own father voted for Trump) had openly endorsed for a Clinton presidency others like Madonna tried to pull off a Poonam Pandey to persuade voters to vote for Clinton. Not just  artists but even the New York Times and Barkha Dutt endorsed Clinton.

Even after victory, many news outlets like CNN didn’t seem too amused. Coming up with reasons like the white-lash. Even Indian MSM proved  the saying the argument of a liberal begins with a false equivalence with a journalist crediting Modi’s victory to that of Trump and labelling it a Hindu-lash.

But Trump one upped all of them and won the White House in what was called America’s most divisive election yet to become the oldest person elected to office. The left globalist media is very much blame here. The media like Zeus unleashed the kraken that is Trump (sadly onto themselves) on to America. Maybe it was hatred for the MSM and the establishment  that was a major reason for Trump’s victory.

But liberals seem to forget that democracy is for the people of the people and by the people and  of the people  and not only some people. Liberals still havent accepted Trump as their President Elect with the hashtag #NotMyPresident.

Maybe they (MSM) can take a lesson from this. Liberals who outraged when Trump said this are now protesting  in the streets against the  results of a fair democratic election because they don’t like the results. American flags were being burnt in the streets.

Many American politicians took a cue from their Indian counterparts to organize a sit in the parliament maybe an award wapsi isn’t that far away.

एक चवन्नी के दम पर चलता है पचास रूपये का काला धन, जानिये कैसे

Abhishek Sachan
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एक चवन्नी के दम पर चलता है पचास रूपये का काला धन, जानिये कैसे

मोदी सरकार ने फैसला किया है कि पुराने 500 और 1000 के नोट अब नहीं चलेंगे। लोगों को पुराने नोट जमा करवा कर उसके बदले नये नोट लेने होंगे। इससे उन लोगों पे शिकंजा कसा है जिन्होंने गलत तरीके से बिना टैक्स दिये लाखो-करोड़ो का काला धन जमा कर लिए था। अब उन्हें ये पैसा बैंक में जमा करना होगा, और फिर उसपे टैक्स और जुर्माना देने होगा।

जहां देश मे एक तरफ खुशी की लहर है कि सरकार ने एक मजबूत कदम उठाया, वहीं दूसरी ओर विरोध के स्वर एवं आशंकाओं के पहाड़ भी टूट पड़े हैं। अब इस बात मे तो कोई दो राय नहीं है कि ये फैसला हम सबकी ज़िंदगियों को छूएगा और प्रभावित करेगा, लेकिन मुद्दा ये है कि आज की परेशानी उठाने पर क्या आने वाले सालों मे कुछ फायदा होगा?

ऐसे ही कई सवालों का जवाब ढूंढने की कोशिश हमारी फ़ाइनेंस प्रोफेशन्ल्स की मंडलियाँ कर ही रही थी कि फेसबुक, व्हाट्सएप्प पर एक जटिल मैसेज आया, बाद मे कई ऑनलाइन अखबारों मे भी ये घूमने लगा, और जानकारी दी गयी की ये सम्मानीय गोविंदाचार्य जी द्वारा लिखित है। क्योंकि इतने महान व्यक्ति ने ये बात लिखी है तो चार बार इसको पढ़ डाला, और सच कहूँ तो तीन बार पेट भर कर हंसी आई, क्योंकि पहली बार तो ये समझ नहीं आया कि इत्ती सी बात जो गोविंदाचार्य जी के समझ आ गयी उसको बड़े-बड़े अर्थशास्त्री कैसे चूक गए। मामला समझने के लिए आप भी ये मैसेज पढ़ें –

“प्रधानमंत्री मोदी जी द्वारा 500 और 1000 के नोट समाप्त करने के फैसले से पहले मैं भी अचंभित हुआ और आनंदित भी। पर कुछ समय तक गहराई से सोचने के बाद सारा उत्साह समाप्त हो गया। नोट समाप्त करने और फिर बाजार में नए बड़े नोट लाने से अधिकतम 3% काला धन ही बाहर आ पायेगा, और मोदी जी का दोनों कामों का निर्णय कोई दूरगामी परिणाम नहीं ला पायेगा, केवल एक और चुनावी जुमला बन कर रह जाएगा। नोटों को इसप्रकार समाप्त करना- ‘खोदा पहाड़ ,निकली चुहिया।

अर्थशास्त्रियों के अनुसार भारत में 2015 में सकल घरेलु उत्पाद (GDP) के लगभग 20% अर्थव्यवस्था काले बाजार के रूप में विद्यमान थी। वहीँ 2000 के समय वह 40% तक थी, अर्थात धीरे धीरे घटते हुए 20% तक पहुंची है। 2015 में भारत का सकल घरेलु उत्पाद लगभग 150 लाख करोड़ था, अर्थात उसी वर्ष देश में 30 लाख करोड़ रूपये काला धन बना। इस प्रकार अनुमान लगाएं तो 2000 से 2015 के बीच न्यूनतम 400 लाख करोड़ रुपये काला धन बना है। रिजर्व बैंक के अनुसार मार्च 2016 में 500 और 1000 रुपये के कुल नोटों का कुल मूल्य 12 लाख करोड़ था जो देश में उपलब्ध 1 रूपये से लेकर 1000 तक के नोटों का 86% था। अर्थात अगर मान भी लें कि देश में उपलब्ध सारे 500 और 1000 रुपये के नोट काले धन के रूप में जमा हो चुके थे, जो कि असंभव है, तो भी केवल गत 15 वर्षों में जमा हुए 400 लाख करोड़ रुपये काले धन का वह मात्र 3% होता है!”

क्या आपको हंसी आई ? नहीं आएगी, आखिर एक महान विचारक ने लिखा है, ऐसे ही थोड़े न आप पहली बार में ही हंस दोगे। आपको हँसाने के लिए राम और श्याम की कहानी सुनाते हैं –

कई दसियों साल पहले, एक बार, राम भाई नींबू का शर्बत लेकर और श्याम भाई ऑरेंज का शर्बत लेकर मेले मे पैसा कमाने निकले। राम भाई के पास कुल 100 गिलास शर्बत था और श्याम भाई के पास भी 100। राम भाई ने एक गिलास की कीमत 25 पैसे अर्थात चवन्नी की लगाई और श्याम भाई ने भी 25 पैसे । राम भाई क्योंकि बड़े थे तो अम्मा ने मेला घूमने के लिए उनको एक चवन्नी दे दी थी। अब क्योंकि मेले मे माहौल नहीं था तो बिक्री नहीं हो रही थी, दुकान छोड़कर जा नहीं सकते थे, भूख जैसी भी लग ही रही थी… तो राम भाई ने श्याम को बोला यार तेरा शर्बत पिला, श्याम भाई बोले “गिनकर 100 गिलास है, हिसाब बिगड़ जाएगा, एक काम करो अम्मा वाली चवन्नी दे दो, फिर पिलाता हूँ”। राम भाई ने चवन्नी दी और शर्बत गटक गए। अब इधर यही खेल श्याम को भी सूझा, बोला भैया शर्बत पिलाओ, तो राम भाई ने चवन्नी वापस मांग ली… अब मेले में उठाव नहीं था, थोड़ी देर बाद राम भाई ने श्याम को फिर चवन्नी खिसका दी और एक गिलास शर्बत और गटक गए… उधर श्याम भाई भी चवन्नी इधर से उधर भेज कर एक गिलास और गटक गए। तो एक चवन्नी 200 बार इधर से उधर हुई और दोनों के शर्बत दोनों ने ही समाप्त कर दिये।

इस कहानी से ही कहावत बनी है चवन्नी घुमाना। खैर, मैं आपको इस घटना का अर्थशास्त्र समझाना चाहता हूँ। इस घटना का GDP यानि सकल घरेलू उत्पाद होगा – इस घटना मे उत्पन्न हुए सारे माल और सेवाओं की बाजार द्वारा निर्धारित कीमत, अँग्रेजी में कहें तो total market values of goods and services produced, याने राम भाई का 25 रुपये का शर्बत (25 पैसे गुना 100 गिलास) और श्याम भाई का 25 रुपये का शर्बत, याने कुल हुआ 50 रुपये। मतलब अपनी कहानी का जीडीपी है 50 रुपये। लेकिन क्या ये जीडीपी चलाने के लिए हमको 50 रुपये लगे? नहीं भाई हमारा काम तो मात्र एक चवन्नी मे चल गया!

Govindacharya
गोविंदाचार्य जी – माफ करें, आप गलत हैं

अब आप वापस पढ़िये गोविंदाचार्य जी को, उन्होने बड़ी चालाकी से 50 रुपये के जीडीपी को ऐसे दिखाया जैसे 50 रुपये के जीडीपी को चलाने के लिए आपको 50 रुपये के नोट छापना आवश्यक हैं। गोविंदाचार्य जी का दूसरा पैराग्राफ पढ़ें, उन्होने बताया है कि 2015 में जीडीपी 150 लाख करोड़ था, और 20% अर्थव्यवस्था काले-बजार के हवाले थी याने टैक्स न भरने वाली काली अर्थव्यवस्था 30 लाख करोड़ की थी। अब आप ही बताइये मित्रों, क्या 30 लाख करोड़ के काला बजार को 30 लाख करोड़ के नोटों की आवश्यकता है?

बिलकुल नहीं, कितने नोटों की आवश्यकता है ये इस पर निर्भर करता है कि आपके यहाँ लोग कैसे लेनदेन करतें हैं। अब ब्लैक मनी वाले चेक या ऑनलाइन ट्रान्सफर तो करते नहीं होंगे, वहाँ सारा मामला नकद में ही चलता होगा। मतलब 30 लाख करोड़ का जो काला माल पैदा हुआ उसका अधिकतम भुगतान नोटों द्वारा ही होता होगा। और ये नोट 100 और 50 के तो होते नहीं होंगे। मतलब सराफा का एक ब्लैक व्यापारी टाटा-407 भरकर नोट लेकर तो चल नहीं सकता (वैसे मजाक में कहें तो सराफा की गलियों में 407 निकल ही न पाएगा)। तो बड़े नोटों का अधिकतम इस्तेमाल काली अर्थव्यवस्था में होता होगा, ऐसा अनुमान कहीं से भी गलत नहीं हो सकता, और दूसरी बात यह कि 30 लाख करोड़ के उत्पादन को सम्हालने के लिए 30 लाख करोड़ नहीं अपितु इससे कम बड़े नोटों की जरूरत होगी ।

आखिरी बात, गोविंदाचार्य जी ने 15 साल की काली अर्थव्यवस्था जोड़कर उसको 400 लाख करोड़ का बताया है, फिलहाल मैं ये नहीं सिद्ध करना चाहता कि ये सारे आंकड़े गलत हैं, लेकिन आप ये आसान सी बात बताइये, यदि राम और श्याम के गाँव में अगले 10 साल तक शर्बत 25 पैसे का ही रहे और अम्मा ऐसे ही चवन्नी देकर उनको मेले मे भेजती रहे, तो दस साल का जीडीपी भले 50X10 = 500 रुपये का हो जाएगा लेकिन आज भी उनका काम उसी चवन्नी से चल जाएगा या नहीं ? अब तो आप हँसोगे कि कैसे एक महान आदमी ने जीडीपी और उसमें घूमने वाले नोटों को एक ही नंबर मान लिया।

वैसे आप एक और बात पर मुस्कुरा सकते हैं, कि सामने वाला हम लोगों को मूर्ख समझ कर कुछ भी आंकड़े पहना रहा था और हमने उसकी चालाकी पकड़ कर उसी की जेब में खोस दी । हमारे देश में महानता का भूत उतारने में लोगों को अप्रतिम संतोष की प्राप्ति होती है।

अंत में आपसे ये कहना चाहूँगा कि हमारा देश बहुत बड़ा है, ऐसा कोई फैसला नहीं हो सकता जो सारे 125 करोड़ को खुश रखे, लेकिन हर फैसला सही और गलत जरूर होता है। जैसे आज़ादी के बाद कई अहिंसावादियों  का तर्क था कि हमको सेना की कोई आवश्यकता नहीं है, वहीं सरदार पटेल का फैसला था कि सेना बनेगी और खूब बनेगी। उनका फैसला सही था, लेकिन सबको पसंद नहीं था। आप ऐसे भी देख सकते हैं कि उनके फैसले से कई नौजवानो की जान भी गयी, क्योंकि लाखों नौजवान भारत की सेना मे भर्ती हुए, लेकिन यदि यह फैसला नहीं होता तो करोड़ों लोग गुलामों की जिंदगी जीते, युद्ध में नहीं तो अकाल में मर जाते, दुश्मनों द्वारा मार दिये जाते।

दूसरी ओर, आज हमारे देश में कई अशिक्षित या unskilled युवक सही शिक्षा के अभाव में बेरोजगारी की जिल्लत भरी जिंदगी जी रहे हैं, वहीं सरकार को यदि टैक्स आदि के माध्यम से बराबर धन प्राप्त हो तो वो एक अच्छी शिक्षा देकर लोगों को रोजगार हेतु तैयार कर पाती, नए उद्योग धंधों को स्थापित कर रोजगार सृजित कर पाती। इसलिए आज हमको एक सही निर्णय के साथ सब मुसीबतें झेलकर खड़े होना है।

याद रखिए हमारे लिए ये समय भले ही कुछ नोटों के बदलने का है, लेकिन बदमाश व्यापारियों और उनसे संचालित मीडिया और झूठे नेताओं के लिए ये समय पाखंड और प्रपंच फैलाने का है। उन्हें अपनी चवन्नी बचानी है, और चवन्नी घुमानी है। वादा करिए कि हम इस प्रपंच को उखाड़ फेकेंगे।

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