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Are we inching towards New India?

Tripti
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Are we inching towards New India?

New India is a golden buzz word that’s gone viral these days. But, what is this New India exactly? Some say it is the strength and skills of 125 crore Indians, some describe it is the strength of the poor, the young and women, while some call it the India that fulfills the Indian dream of young people and some others say it’s a dream to make in India.

India has an unrivaled youth demographic: 65% of its population is 35 or under, and half the country’s population of 1.25 billion people is under 25 years of age and comprises of 14% of eligible voters. We witnessed a new record of 66.4% of voting in 2014 for the first time in the country, which was likely due to large participation by young voters.

Taking a holistic view one can elucidate that New India is the Young India aspiring to live a dignified and corruption-free life by transforming India into a land of opportunities and inclusiveness using their own strength and skills. Young India is also unclouded of the fact that they can only metamorphose the country by changing their attitudes on their own along with some support from the Government.

This aspiration of young people to live a dignified and corruption-free life is unlike a conventional Indian mind set. They want to stand on their own feet to create jobs not seek jobs and want to become entrepreneurs who can employ many more like them. Already, a silent entrepreneurial revolution has been sweeping the country for many years and many young Indians with great ideas have been writing their success stories by launching digital, agricultural, industrial and other products and services. Now their expectations have gone a notch above with government schemes like Skill India, Start up India, Digital India and Clean India that complement the mood and inclination of Young Indians.

About 10 million youth enters into job market every year and mostly poor, who cannot afford higher education and do not have enough money to get professional training to get a job or start any business of their own. Skill India aspires to skill and train 40 crores of Indians in different skills by 2022 through financial and hand holding support. Under Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana already 18 lakh people have been trained. For e.g.  Some 60,000 in leather sector, 1.37 lakh in agriculture sector, 1.28 lakh in beauty and wellness sector. Most of the people trained are absorbed by the industry facing shortage of skilled people. SBI and other banks offer loans up to Rs.1.5 lakhs for adding skills.

As per data 6003 skill accounts were opened in various banks and Rs.38.663 crore was sanctioned. Oracle has enhanced the number of students in its training facility in India to train them in digital skills. Japan’s private companies are also investing in training institutions for Japan style manufacturing in rural areas in some states like Gujarat and Rajasthan. It is quite clear that young poor Indians are taking support from these government schemes. However the biggest challenge will be to provide jobs after skill training by placing them in domestic and global manpower needs. Recently, 500 startups were recognized by the government. It gave tax exemptions to some of them, handhold support and funds to others. Under Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana more than 7.45 crore entrepreneurs received collateral loans of 3.17lakh crore to establish their own set ups.

New India deserve new, simple, stricter, less time consuming, transparent and implementable laws. GST, will make one tax law with a common national market and reduced tax burdens on young and new entrepreneurs. Another positive action through new wage amendment law will be that a large section of poor youth working in IT, Health and other unorganized sectors shall be paid wage in a transparent manner and not face any  unwarranted cuts by their employers. For the young mothers who want to become entrepreneurs or get absorbed in the industry the new maternity law will really benefit and empower them to balance their work life with the taking care of their new born babies. New York Times recently reported that new insolvency and bankruptcy law is already working well in India to check the enormous bad debts, making it easier to dissolve a company and recover money, thus, becoming attractive to even international investors.

Digital India is transforming India especially the youth into digitally empowered society. In its recent report on internet use in rural India New York Times stated that despite lack of basic infrastructural facilities in villages mobile users have increased in leaps and bounds. Young rural people are accepting the positive use of the new technology of internet. Now, the very challenging task is to digitize the rural areas. Till now, optical fiber connectivity which was only for 59 Gram Panchayats in 2014 has reached to 90,996 Gram Panchayats in last three years. 2.5 lakh Gram Panchayats will have common service centers for internet use. 1,50,000 post offices are also proposed to be used as common points for digital services.

Youth are getting involved in collaborating, influencing and sharing government policies at www.India.gov.in  and around 42 lakh people use this website to put forth their views. Further, there are 4.55 Million data downloads from this site. Digital transactions have increased 3-folds in last 6 months from 96 lakh per day to 3.5 crores per day in March 2017. There are 2 crore downloads of the BHIM app which proves Young people are comfortable with dealing in cashless transactions. E-governance is able to deliver services to the citizens in particular youth in a transparent, convenient and efficient way. Around 114 crore population have Aadhaar which provides digital and biometric identity to all citizens to deliver government services and subsidies to poor without any middleman in between. By digitally linking PAN and Aadhaar terror financing and circulation of black money is aimed to be curbed.

The most important transformation youth want to see is clean surroundings. The general mind set is to clean one’s own house and throw garbage on the road, rivers or any public place in the country. Young people who work in western countries love to talk about the clean surroundings and how they also contribute to keep the surroundings clean and hygienic, but when it comes to India they put their head in shame. A report was published in The Washington Post in 2009 that Indian girls refuse to marry if there was no toilet in groom’s house. For several years Social Media has been used by the young people to create awareness in cleaning public places by displaying their pictures to inspire many more.

Many youth voluntarily participated in cleaning the public places. This youth endeavor became one of the inspiration for Swacch Bharat mission to make cleanliness everyone’s business. Separate Toilets for girls in schools have got constructed to a large extent in last few years ensuring dignity and safety of women. This has increased enrollment of girls in school. Open defecation has come down from 550million villages to350 million villages. Some 1, 90,000 villages, 130 districts and 3 states have declared themselves open defecation free, sanitation in our villages has gone up from 42% to 63%. A lot of challenge still remains in keeping the country clean on permanent basis by changing the mind sets and also vigorous involvement of local government.

The above examination provides a simpler but, more perspicuous understanding that the Young India is positively and fully inching towards New India. The scene is very constructive and vivid. The various missions that complement youth aspirations have lot of challenges to overcome and their progress has to match the youth fervor. Along with these schemes and implementation of new and strict laws government will also have to lessen its controls and create a system where the cost of being corrupt and dishonest is so high that every citizen aspires to do right and live an honest life. That can be a gift of a new Indian Dream to New India.

Independent Kashmir: A fantasy created by the local politicians

antinationalpatriot
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Independent Kashmir: A fantasy created by the local politicians

Kashmir issue is largely a legacy of Jawaharlal Nehru, the first Prime-Minister of independent India. Nehru promised plebiscite to the citizens of Kashmir on multiple occasions. All these talks by Nehru about holding a plebiscite in Kashmir un-necessarily raised the expectations of Kashmiris.

In a letter dated 11 September 1951, to the U.N. representative, Nehru wrote, “The Government of India not only reaffirms its acceptance of the principle that the question of the continuing accession of the state of Jammu and Kashmir to India shall be decided through the democratic method of a free and impartial plebiscite under the auspices of the United Nations but is anxious that the conditions necessary for such a plebiscite should be created as quickly as possible”.

In 2008 state assembly elections, Congress and National Conference formed a coalition government. National Conference chief, Farooq Abdullah nominated his son, Omar Abdullah as the Chief Minister of this coalition. Another sad example of dynastic politics in India.

The author would like to point out the mass unrest under the government of the aforesaid political parties during 2010. More than 100 people died in that phase of turmoil besides huge destruction of public as well as private property.

In view of this, what right does Abdullah’s have of criticizing the current coalition of BJP and PDP?

If, Congress and National Conference use force then it’s justified but when the present administration does it then, suddenly the Abdullah’s get concerned. This is sheer hypocrisy on the part of Abdullah family. Chidambaram, the former Home Minister of India and a prominent Congress party politician has said that ‘Kashmir is nearly lost for India’.

It’s not lost. He and his party are largely responsible for this mess. What was Chidambaram’s contribution as Home Minister of India from 2008-2012 to resolve the Kashmir issue? The answer is a big zero. Does any Congress politician has the guts to criticize the failed policies of Nehru which created this Kashmir problem in the first place?

Regional political parties of Kashmir like PDP, NC and Hurriyat just wish to maintain the ‘status quo’ in Kashmir. This way, when they come to power in the state, they misappropriate the central funds and indulge in blatant corruption filling their coffers. When they are in opposition, they try to blackmail the government and enjoy the funds coming from Pakistan in the name of Kashmir struggle.

Indian army is one of the largest in the world. In any armed conflict there are collateral damages. The security forces cannot be blamed. They have a job to do and ensure law and order. One cannot expect a soldier to discharge his duty effectively with imposed conditions; like don’t use force, do not retaliate against the locals etc.

The stone-pelters of Kashmir are misguided people. Their stones will never win against the guns of the security forces commanded by the central government of India. If these Kashmiri protesters possess a death wish, then no one can help them. In an over populated country like India, nobody gives a damn about the trouble makers in Kashmir being shot dead by the Indian security forces.

Special status like article 370 has alienated an average Indian residing in other states of India from Kashmiri citizens. There is no sympathy for Kashmiris among Indian masses in the rest of the country. The only ‘pseudo-liberals, who raise their voices for the Kashmiris, are the frustrated lot of politicians like Abdullahs and Chidambarams, whose parties are out of power. They thus seek ways to stay in the news and limelight.

There is no question of Kashmir’s independence. Even if the long promised and pending Plebiscite promised by Nehru is conducted in Kashmir. It would only consider the situations and options available to all states at that time, which was either merge with India or Pakistan. There will never be a separate nation of Kashmir. If Kashmiris wish to live in a ‘fool’s paradise’ and die in this ‘game of thrones’ played by their local politicians, then it’s their inane choice.

Kashmiri residents should seriously ponder the astronomical amount of money minted by politicians like Abdullahs, Sayeeds, Geelanis and Maliks in the name of this ‘so called’ Kashmir agitation. Their children and grandchildren are all well established in politics and businesses. What has an average Kashmiri person got in return?

It’s high time that the common Kashmiris experience a paradigm shift and focus on improving their life through education and joining the mainstream of India rather than being a ‘pawn’ in the hands of their selfish, corrupt, and opportunistic local Kashmiri politicians.

Right of Balochs to secede from Pakistan

shubhamjanghu
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Right of Balochs to secede from Pakistan

Conflicts for separate State (or Sovereign-based conflicts) are often hard to resolve. They involve rise of terrorism, grave human rights violations, lack of effective international legal norms. This article argues that Baloch have a right to self-determination and have ‘earned’ their sovereignty.

Balochs’ History

The term “Balochis” refers to a “confederation of about five hundred tribes and clans.” These claim to share common culture, religion, ancestors, traditions and language.

Accession of Balochistan to Pakistan

In June 1947, Pakistan promised autonomous status to all princely states and guaranteed non-interference in their functioning. Immediately before independence, the Baloch nationalists lobbied for an autonomous state. In August 1947, British Government, representative of Kalat State (presently known as Balochistan), Muhammad Ali Jinnah and Liaquat Ali Khan entered into an agreement which gave Kalat State the status which it had before its colonization. On the same day, another agreement was signed whereby Pakistan promised to “stand committed to all the responsibilities and agreements signed by Kalat and the British Government from 1893 to 1947”. It made Pakistan the legal, constitutional and political successor of the British. Article 1 of this agreement stated that Kalat State would get an independent status. On August 12, 1947, the Khan of Kalat announced the independent state of Kalat and conducted first elections. Afterwards, when Pakistan was formed, the Khan of Kalat offered special relations in the areas of foreign affairs, communication and defense. After nine months of deliberations, the Khan accepted an unconditional annexation. Many believe that the Khan was coerced to sign this agreement.

Since then, Balochs have remained unrepresented. From 1947 to 1977, only 4 out of the 179 persons in Central Cabinet and military were Baloch. There were hardly any Baloch in the top positions. A study showed that the recruitment from Balochistan had stagnated at 0.6% even after Britishers. There are mere few hundreds of Baloch in the whole Pakistani Army. Baloch Regiment and Kalat Scouts have 0-2 Balochs. Even in 1991 when the recruitment standards were brought down and quota was increased to 15%, majority of recruits from Balochistan were Pathans and not Balochs. Out of 830 civil services post, Baloch held only 18 posts in 1979.

Balochs have been subjected to various human rights violations. Baloch militants and activists have been unlawfully killed and disappeared. In 2013, highly decomposed bodies were discovered in Khuzdar. Till date, enforced disappearances continue with impunity. Voices of several people who tried to speak about human rights violations have been crushed. In March 2015, Baloch activists were stopped from attending a conference in the USA about human rights violations in Balochistan and Sindh. Renowned human rights activist Sabeen Mahmud was murdered in Karachi shortly after hosting discussion on Balochistan. Three activists, including Vice Chairman ‘Voice for Baloch Missing Persons’ were detained and accused of terrorism and anti-state activities when they were on their way to attend a conference in USA.

Right of Self-Determination

Right to self-determination has been crystallized in International law. It has been recognized by UN Charter, UDHR, ICCPR, ICESCR, and various UN General Assembly resolutions. It has been made a rule of customary international law. Under this right, people have a right to “determine their political status and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural development”. It is exercised by way of self-government, substantial autonomy, free association, and arguably in certain circumstances, independence.

The question of whether right to secession is whether included in right to self-determination or not is a highly-debated question. It is argued that if every group in each country is given a right to secede, then every State would be destroyed. Hence, UN Charter drafters expressly excluded right to secede from the right to self-determination. However, right to secede has been recognized where people are dominated by colonialists or aliens, or racially oppressed. In addition to this, scholars, UNGA resolutions, declarations of international conferences, judicial decisions, and international arbitral dispute decisions, UN bodies and state practice have recognized the ‘remedial’ right to secession, i.e., right of secession of a group has been collectively denied civil/political right and abused. This right has been recognized where the State “lacks either the will or the power to enact and apply just and effective guarantees [for the protection of minorities]”. The UN Declaration on Principles of International Law Concerning Friendly Relations strikes an important balance between sovereignty and self-determination. It gives preference to territorial integrity until and unless, a ‘representative’ government without distinction to “race, creed, or color” is in power.  Support for this theory can be gathered from State practice. In 1971 Bangladesh seceded from Pakistan, due to violence, repression and economic and political discrimination employed upon Bangla population. In May 1991, when Kurds were facing massive human rights violations, UN sanctioned intervention, whereby, Kurds enjoyed de facto intermediate sovereignty. Former Yugoslavia broke up into the constituent States as the people were deprived of right to democratic self-government and were subjugated to ethnic aggression, crimes against humanity committed by Belgrade forces.

For the secessionist group to establish their claim of sovereignty, (1) it must demonstrate it was denied representative government and human rights, (2) it will respect set boundaries and not claim territory from other third party states and (3) it will respect rule of law, democracy, human rights, minority rights, principle of disarmament and nuclear non-proliferation. To effectuate the process of secession, a modern mechanism of conflict resolution, i.e., earned sovereignty is adopted.

Earned Sovereignty

Earned Sovereignty refers to the internationally-supervised process of systematic devolution of sovereign powers from a parent state to a sub-state. It allows the parent state and sub-state to negotiate and draw up certain conditions to be fulfilled before sovereign powers are devolved onto the sub-state.

There are three components of earned sovereignty– shared sovereignty, institution building, and a determination of final status. Shared sovereignty refers to the “cooling-off period”, which allows violence to decrease, enable stakeholders to adjust their final objectives, build confidence and establish necessary institutions for self-government. In some scenarios, sub-state might be permitted exercise significant number of sovereign functions and sharing the rest with the parent state. Institution Building refers to the process whereby the foundation of political institutions in the sub-state are laid down, and other measures such as disarmament, return of refugees etc. are taken.  This allows the sub-state a later date to continue with sovereign functions. Determination of final status involves determination of ultimate status of the sub-state, which ranges from an autonomous status within the parent state to complete independent state. This status is decided through plebiscites or negotiations.

Considering that free choice forms the core of self-determination, plebiscites seem to be an apt choice for reaching the final status. They have often been resorted to by the international community. The basic essentials for a successful plebiscite are: (1) unqualified consent of all stakeholders, (2) detailed plan of plebiscite and its monitoring, (3) international support and (4) security arrangements. However, few scholars have argued that referendum have led to further violence either before or after the vote. In Bosnia and East Timor, referendum turned into ‘winner-takes-all’ fight, as the groups, which were either about to lose or had lost, became insecure about their future, and resorted to violence. There are other available options where the voters elect representative who could in turn negotiate on their behalf.

Conclusion

Due to continuous subjugations and human right violations perpetrated by the Pakistani State, Baloch have ‘earned’ their sovereignty. However, there are several impediments which have to be overcome to apply the concept of earned sovereignty.

Firstly, even though the parties do not necessarily need to decide on the final status in the beginning, but there is a compelling requirement of considering extent of devolution of powers. It is evident status quo cannot be maintained. There are differing views on the future of Balochistan. Pakistan do not want to lose Balochistan due to its strategic position. The Balochs are divided on whether they want an autonomous or independent state. If there is no consensus on the extent of devolution, earned sovereignty can fail. Secondly, Pakistani government feels that if any kind of autonomy is given to Baloch, other states like Sind might revolt and ask for the same benefits. Lastly, since it is imperative to have an international oversight over such process, Pakistan might refuse give charge of its interests to the international actors.

To conclude, earned sovereignty is a win-win situation for all as it allows Pakistan to retain its territorial integrity and gives Baloch important international recognition and sovereign rights.

“I only support for Shoaib Malik to win and not Pakistan”, Sania Mirza on IND-PAK cricket matches

rajavel
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“I only support for Shoaib Malik to win and not Pakistan”, Sania Mirza on IND-PAK cricket matches

London. Sania Mirza has cleared the air for a hundredth time about whom she supports when India and Pakistan play against each other in a cricket match. Frustrated with the same question ever after her marriage, she once posted “I am married to Mr. Shoaib Malik, who is from Pakistan. I am an Indian, who will remain an Indian until the end of my life”, on Twitter.

“I only support for Shoaib Malik to win and not Pakistan. If he plays good and if his team wins, should I not support and congratulate him? Would it not be selfish to wish him well to score well but not hit the winning runs? Get me right! I always want India to win, especially when I play in doubles representing the country or not!”, Sania was very explicit in her position as to whom she supports, while talking to My Voice.

Thoroughly confused with her answer, when the reporter asked her to spell out clearly whom she wants to win, she said: “India. But, you can not stop me when I clap for my husband’s boundaries and sixes. Also, I cannot sit down quiet when he celebrates the win with his team. Wait a minute! Now, even I am confused. I am a real girl of India who plays as a cheer girl for Pakistan whenever my husband plays! Is that clear?”

My Voice reporter, who has barely understood the government’s recent cattle policy about “can’t sell and can eat and can’t sell for eating!” and the GST and different rates for different products etc., sought help from Sourav to know the answer for one final time, uncharitable or not.

Congress leader seeks World Record for Shiv Sena’s support withdrawal threats to the BJP

Nitten Gokhaley
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Congress leader seeks World Record for Shiv Sena’s support withdrawal threats to the BJP

On Thursday, Maharashtra Congress MLA (senior leader Narayan Rane’s son) Nitesh Rane made a splash in the headlines. He has written a letter to the director of Guinness World Records urging them to record the number of threats issued by Shiv Sena to its alliance partner BJP.

BJP and Shiv Sena (SS) are coalition partners in Maharashtra. BJP has 122 MLAs while the Shiv Sena has 63 MLAs.  Initially, Maharashtra’s CM Devendra Fadnavis was not willing to waive off farmers loans. During the last two months, Sena leaders have been issuing support withdrawal threats almost every day until recently, when the CM agreed to offer loan waiver to small farmers.

While commenting on Sena’s criticism, the state’s CM said yesterday that BJP is ready to face mid-term polls in the state if SS removes its support.

Political parties form an alliance with each other in almost every country. But perhaps, no other coalition partner must have issued so many threats to pull out of the government. Thus, Rane’s suggestion to Guinness regarding adding new category does make sense.

Nitesh Rane is Congress MLA from Maharashtra’s Kankavli assembly constituency in the Konkan region. He and his father started their career with Shiv Sena. They joined the Congress in July 2005 after being expelled from Sena. Since then, Rane and his sons Nitesh, as well as Nilesh, never let go any opportunity to criticize Shiv Sena.

Modi Government reviving innovation and making economy stronger by simplifying Patent Laws

shivanisharma
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Modi Government reviving innovation and making economy stronger by simplifying Patent Laws

A very common question any inventor comes across to safeguard their invention is- ‘How can I get patent in India for my project idea or concept?’ You may be a business owner with an idea or product. Patent a research by scientist with a new concept formula. Patent for a professional or an employee with a new idea for software. A masters or PhD holder with research project to be patented or a student with intent to learn more about patents and how they can protect your ideas. Process of patent has always been complicated in India and required many tie-ups across the world with different patent agencies.

Patents are also essential for making a economy stronger by protecting its inventions. This requires a strong will from the government and recent policies by Modi Government has made registering and getting a patent super fast and reducing cost by 80%. This single policy will boost other initiatives like Make in India and further encourage Indian inventors to work for their economy.

What is patent? The patent is grant of exclusive rights to the owner to exclude others from making, using, offering for sale, selling or importing patented invention. What that means in simple terms is if you get the patent for your invention you can stop others from making, selling, importing your invention without your permission. Hence one can earn significant money by licensing or selling the patent. So why you should consider patenting your invention owning an intellectual property like patent is just like owning any other property like real estate? Here are some advantages of owning patent. You own the invention patented for 20 years of time. You can use the patented invention to build business around it. You can rent it, in this case, licensed it to an existing businesses or you can completely sell the patent to other company.

Does it sound exciting? Let’s see some interesting information about most commonly asked questions like the procedure and steps for getting paid into cost for obtaining patent in India as an individual or as a company and the time required for getting Patent. Very first step in patent filing in India journey is invention disclosure. Write down the invention that is your idea or concept with as much details as possible like the area and the nature of the invention description of the invention. What it does, how does it work, similar existing solutions or products like your invention. Advantages of your invention over existing solutions. You should be including drawing diagrams or sketches explaining working of the invention. This information in its raw format is called invention disclosure. Before we proceed with these steps here is an important note about the cost of obtaining patent in India.

How much does it cost to get patent in India? There is no precise and accurate answer to this question as cost for Patent registration is dependent on multiple factors. There are two elements for cost of getting patent in India. First is the government fees for forms requests and renewals, second is professional charges for patent agent or patent attorney. Its always advisable to take professional service from a Patent Attroney who is a Patent agent since knowledge of Law is the game changing part of filing a patent. Most of patents in China and US are filed by Patent Attorney who have Patent agent license and not just a patent agent. This gives these patents edge over other filed in various geographies, because of proper legal knowledge. Government fees are different for individual inventors and companies and the cost of patent application also differs on number of claims and pages in the complete specification. But good news is, thanks to Modi government, all the patent fees are now 80% cheaper which saves lot of money of inventor to spend it at right place by hiring proper patent attorney and their patents are rightly secured. This is a very smart move of the Government.

Once invention disclosure is complete, you can opt for provisional patent application. Provisional patent application is a good choice in case you are at very early stage in the research and development of your invention. It gives following benefits- secures filing date that is priority date which is crucially important in world of patents it gives 12 months of time to file complete specification and it has low initial cost. It takes about seven days for bit in professional to work on provisional patent application and then it is filed in the relevant Patent Office. Besides this you can go for filing complete patent application directly if you are ready with most of the things of your invention the complete patent application includes entire description of the invention diagrams embodiments and claims it takes about 15 days for application. After reviewing the patent with the inventor a patent agent or patent attorney can file the application in the relevant Patent Office within 15 days. Upon filing the complete application for patent the application is published after 18 months from the date of filing.

Besides leaps and bound in improving patent process Modi government recently also conducted long pending Patent Agent exam. India now has fresh patent agents and patent attorneys to serve inventors and help save our precious inventions.

Farmer distress: Causes and possible solutions

sudharshan80
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Farmer distress: Causes and possible solutions

Time and again we have farmer protests, farmer suicides hits the media cycle, flame wars erupt on social media and then as we all have the attention span of a gold fish, we move onto Priyanka Chopra’s gown or whatever is the topic of the day. The deep rooted issues though remain, which begs the question, why are our farmers not very productive, why do they, in this modern era struggle to eke together a living? I tried to put together a picture using publicly available date.

  • Landholding Size and Parcel Sizes : To start out with the size of landholdings. Our total land under cultivation has more or less remained static from 1970 onwards. It is around 140 Million HA. However our population has grown by close to 140% since then. We have gone from 70 lakh farmers to 140 lakh farmers in this same period. 67% of these farmers are marginal farmers with less than 0.40 HA per holding. These farmers usually depend on wages and labour to make their earning.

The per HA size has however dropped from 2.28 HA in 1970 to 1.16 HA in 2011.

Basic math- land remains the same, number of farmers has gone up means excessive parceling. This means smaller landholdings which means lesser income and consequently capital to mechanise our farmlands.

  • India has about 90.2 Mn households (average household size in India is 4.5) or about 405 Mn Indians directly depend on agriculture for a living. You have another 40Mn living in rural areas who don’t depend on agriculture (small scale manufacturing, services etc). In totality you have about 130 Mn households in India directly OR indirectly dependent on agriculture. Or in number terms, 585 Mn people (around 50% of the population)
  • An agricultural household was defined in the NSSO survey as a household receiving value of produce of more than Rs.3,000 from agriculture with at least one member self-employed in farming.
  • Agriculture contributes only about 15% to the GDP – so you have a scenario where around 50% of the population (31% directly) contributing to about 15% of the GDP.
  • UP has the highest number of households involved in agriculture (no brainier really, given it is also our most populous state). UP alone has 81 Mn people directly dependent on farming. UP’s average landholding size is an abysmal 0.75 HA on average.
  • 45% of the farmers are from OBC communities while another 29% are from SC/ST communities. As per the Sachar report, SC/ST are amongst our poorest subsets and a large number of them are in agriculture.

To put things into perspective, the average farm size in

  • The USA is 174 HA
  • Latin America is 111.7 HA
  • Sub Saharan Africa is 2.4 HA

Our average landholding size is 60% of Sub Saharan Africa’s and this has deep consequences.

  • Farmer Debt and other salient numbers
  • 52% of all farmer households are indebted. Interestingly, states like AP (92%) and TN 82.5%) had the highest levels of debt, but some (like TN) don’t report high levels of suicide– this area alone requires a greater amount of study, and could hold part of the solution to solving the jigsaw puzzle that is our rural economy. The woes of the peasant are further compounded as Crop insurance was and is almost unheard of.
  • Average monthly income per agricultural household was Rs.6,426. This translates into an annual income of Rs 77,112 for a family of 4.5. Or in other words, each family member gets Rs 1,428 per month to account for ALL their needs (food, clothing, medicine, education) Just read this again to truly understand how desperately poor we are as a nation and how worse off our farmers are.
  • Farm business accounted for 60% of the average monthly income per agricultural household,Income from wages and salary accounted for nearly 32% of the average monthly income. This is again a scary data point. The average farmer is able to generate only Rs 3,855 a month from farming and need to supplement these wages with daily wages (thank you MNREGA- a good scheme if any, just needs better implementation).

How does all this affect the rural economy? One aspect is, it triggers migration.

  • This is visible in how the number of cultivators to labourers ratio has changed drastically in India. According to this article In 1961, India had 52.8 of her farmers as cultivators and 16.7% as labourers. Thanks to land fragmentation and falling productivity (see above for numbers), in 2011, cultivators are only 24.6% while labourers are 30%.
  • India has in the last decade also seen a historic shift. The number of jobs added in agriculture fell by about 2.5 crore jobs, these jobs saw an increase in the manufacturing (mostly construction) sector. So clearly, migration to cities has begun enmasse and will only pick up pace.
  • All these structural problems are manifest in our per HA productivity- India’s per HA cereal productivity is below the global average at 2,962 in 2013. To put things into perspective, Cambodia is at 3,110. Ivory Coast (ravaged by civil war till a decade ago) is at 3,125. Brazil is at 4,800. China is at near double- 5,800.

Why is farm productivity important? Oxfam says

  • A 10 percent increase in crop yields leads to a reduction of between 6 percent and 10 percent of people living on less than US$ 1 a day.
  • The average real income of small farmers in South India rose by 90 percent, and that of landless labourers by 125 percent, between 1973 and 1994 as a result of the Green Revolution.
  • A 1 percent increase in agricultural GDP per capita led to a 1.61 per cent gain in the per capita incomes of the lowest fifth of the population in 35 countries.
  • A 1 percent increase in labour productivity in agriculture reduced the number of people living on less than US$ 1 a day by between 0.6 and 1.2%.

How does one increase farm productivity and why is the MSP methodology – of just increasing MSP not recommended?

The UPA approach and indeed the past govt’s approach to rural distress was simple. Subsidies, subsidies and more subsidies. Estimates put our TSE (Total Support Estimate to the rural economy) at $ 60 billion annually. This excludes other schemes like MNREGA or the free electricity that many state governments used to provide to farmers.

Some like MNREGA are very good schemes while others like the Loan waiver or MSP increase are not optimum.

The solution to farm distress was to simply throw more money at farmers via the MSP. From 2004-2014, the average rate of increase for MSP was 14%. All this did (along with MNREGA and other subsidy programs) was fuel inflation which peaked in 2012-2014 (and wiped out the Congress electorally). The NDA era saw an annual increase of 4%. It is estimated that for every 10% increase in MSP, there is a 3.3% increase in food basket inflation.

How does it all tie in together?

Going back to our NSSO survey, the agricultural household spends on average 50% of its income (of Rs 6,400) on food. When food costs increase by 30-40% over 2 years, it puts your household budget completely out of whack.

Link this to landholding sizes now and marginal farmers, their increased income gets near wiped out by the inflation while only those with a sizeable farm size benefit. However considering the MAJORITY are small landholders and 60% of this lot are marginal farmers (with 0.4HA and less) it means the majority of farmers are actually hurt by an MSP increase. It gets really bad for the marginal farmers who (as explained above) depend only on wages and labour to survive. They don’t get a 10% annual increment on wages but their food bills go up by~ 5% a year.

There is another nasty side effect to the MSP driven approach. It prices out the free market and the govt becomes the largest procurer of food grains. This resulted in lakhs of tons of food grains rotting in FCI godowns necessitating an SC order to release these food grains.

You have a situation where food prices are going up, supply is drying up leading to a further price rise leading to the MSP going up. This circle is what truly destroyed the UPA electorally as by 2014 and 8 cycles of this meant that our truly poor were being priced out of the food market.

The reason why MSP is not the way should be clear by now. There is another reason and it is basic economics. When your landholdings are static, and your output is more or less static (it can only go down and not up), increasing MSP is only going to increase farmer income marginally. What is truly needed is to increase output per HA. What are some ways of doing this.

  • Collectivisation- This is a touchy subject, and history tells us it fails more often than not. Russia, Vietnam are all examples of how miserably this failed. Yet, China tells us this is very possible and can reap (forgive the pun) an amazing harvest (I am referring to the Post Deng reforms, not the disaster of Mao’s GLP), This should give you some details on how China reformed her primary sector not going into it as it is out of scope for our discussion.
  • Land consolidation and allowing a free hand to market forces via Land reform (not the current LAB)- Allow farmers to freely lease their land and extract rent from it. Let in private players into this sector, grant free (or lowest interest rate) credit, all actions to be taken to improve average land holding size
  • Improve mechanisation (or collective mechanisation)

This is where a good land acquisition bill would come into play – it will allow this smaller parcels to be consolidated into larger chunks and manufacturing can absorb the already very poor at decent wages. The need of the hour is to improve our farmer productivity by encouraging the truly marginal (who anyways make no money from farming but form 60% of our total base) farmers to make the jump to planned industrialization.

Sources:

  • 1NSSO 70th round survey
  • 2Cereal Yield per HA
  • 3Oxfam Report
  • 4MSP
  • 5Labourer, cultivator mix.

I have also linked some other sources as and when I needed them in the main body of the post.

सिर्फ CA की नहीं, वकीलों की भी खबर ले मोदी सरकार

RAJEEV GUPTA
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सिर्फ CA की नहीं, वकीलों की भी खबर ले मोदी सरकार

बार कौंसिल ऑफ़ इंडिया का यह खुद मानना है कि लगभग ३० प्रतिशत से ऊपर वकील जाली डिग्री पर काम कर रहे हैं. बार कौंसिल ऑफ़ इंडिया की इस टिप्पणी को इस सन्दर्भ में देखा जाना चाहिए कि ज्यादातर राजनेताओं के पास वकालत की डिग्री ही होती है. आप नेता और आप सरकार में कानून मंत्री जितेंद्र तोमर की डिग्री भी फ़र्ज़ी पायी गयी थी. नोट बंदी के दौरान भी दिल्ली के एक पॉश इलाके में एक नामी वकील के यहां दिल्ली पुलिस की क्राइम ब्रांच के छापे में १२५ करोड़ की अघोषित संपत्ति के खुलासे के साथ साथ १३.६५ करोड़ रुपये के पुराने नोट और २.६ करोड़ ने नए नोट बरामद हुए थे. समय समय पर वकील मोटी और भारी भरकम फीस लेकर देशद्रोहियों, आतंकवादियों और बलात्कारियों के मुक़दमे भी लड़ते रहे हैं.

यह सब लिखने का मेरा उद्देश्य वकीलों की छवि खराब करने का नहीं है. यह सब मैंने इसलिए लिखा है कि वर्तमान सरकार हो या फिर पिछली सरकारें, सब की सब सरकारें, वकीलों की सभी हरकतों पर या तो मौन रहती हैं या फिर बेहद नरम रवैया अख्तियार करती हैं, जिसकी सीधी साधी वजह यही है कि ज्यादातर विधायक, संसद सदस्य और मंत्री इसी वकालत के प्रोफेशन से आते हैं और इसीलिए देश में जितने भी कानून बनाये जाते हैं, उनमे इस बात का विशेष ध्यान रखा जाता है कि किसी को भी कुछ हो जाए, वकीलों के ऊपर जरा से भी आंच न आने पाए.

अब जरा एक नज़र वकालत से काफी मिलते जुलते प्रोफेशन CA यानि चार्टर्ड अकाउंटेंट पर भी डाल लेते हैं. यह सभी को मालूम है कि CA की डिग्री लेना सबसे मुश्किल काम है और १९४९ से लेकर आज तक एक भी CA की डिग्री फ़र्ज़ी नहीं पायी गयी है. वर्तमान सरकार में मंत्री पीयूष गोयल और सुरेश प्रभु दोनों ही प्रोफेशन से चार्टर्ड अकाउंटेंट हैं. CA और वकील दोनों ही कंपनी कानून और कर कानून से सम्बंधित मामलों में अपनी सेवायें देते हैं. इन दोनों के काम में बस यही समानता है. एक ऑडिट का काम ऐसा है जो CA के अलावा और कोई नहीं कर सकता है. उसी तरह अदालतों में भी सिर्फ वकील ही पेश हो सकता है, CA नहीं. ट्रिब्यूनल में CA और वकील दोनों लोग पेश हो सकते हैं.

यह सब कुछ लिखने का उद्देश्य भी यही है ताकि यह मालूम हो सके कि सारे नियम, कायदे और कानून देश में राजनेताओं ने इस तरह से बनाये हैं कि वकीलों का हित हर जगह सर्वोपरि रहे. देश में जब सर्विस टेक्स लगाया गया तो CA पर सबसे पहले लगा दिया गया और वकीलों पर आज भी सर्विस टेक्स नहीं है. CA को नियंत्रित करने के लिए बहुत सख्त कोड ऑफ़ कंडक्ट है जिसे इंस्टिट्यूट ऑफ़ चार्टर्ड एकाउंटेंट्स ऑफ़ इंडिया की अनुशासन समिति बहुत सख्ती से लागू करती है. इस अनुशासन समिति के फैसले इतने सख्त होते हैं, जिन्हे जब हाई कोर्ट और सुप्रीम कोर्ट में चुनौती दी जाती है तो वहां से CA को आम तौर पर राहत मिल जाती है. वकीलों का अगर कोई कोड ऑफ़ कंडक्ट होता तो बार कौंसिल ऑफ़ इंडिया को यह कहने की जरूरत ही नहीं पड़ती कि लगभग ३० प्रतिशत से ऊपर वकीलों की डिग्रियां फ़र्ज़ी हैं.

अब आते हैं, मुद्दे की बात पर. खबर यह आ रही है कि सरकार प्रीवेंशन ऑफ़ मनी लॉन्डरिंग एक्ट [PMLA] में संशोधन करके CA के लिए उसमे सजा का प्रावधान करने जा रही है. मनी लॉन्डरिंग को सीधी साधी भाषा में “दो नंबर के पैसे को एक नंबर में बदलने की प्रक्रिया” कहा जाता है. इस बात में कोई शक नहीं है कि हर प्रोफेशन में कुछ न कुछ लोग गलत काम करते हैं. CA प्रोफेशन के कुछ लोग भी यह काम जरूर करते होंगे लेकिन इन कारगुजारियों में जितने लोग CA प्रोफेशन से होंगे उससे ज्यादा नहीं तो कम से कम उतने ही लोग वकालत के प्रोफेशन से भी होंगे.

ध्यान देने वाली बात यह है कि काले धन को सफ़ेद धन बनाने का काम (मनी लॉन्डरिंग का काम) कंपनी कानून और कर कानून की मदद से किया जाता है. इन दोनों कानूनों में अपनी सेवायें CA भी देते हैं और वकील भी देते हैं. मनी लॉन्डरिंग करते हुए अगर कोई CA पकड़ा गया है तो वकील भी पकड़ा गया है. एक उदहारण तो मैं इस लेख के आरम्भ में ही दे चुका हूँ. अगर सरकार की मंशा यह है कि मनी लॉन्डरिंग कानून में संसोधन करके सिर्फ CA के लिए सजा का प्रावधान कर दिया जाए, तो उसका सीधा सीधा मतलब यही होगा कि एक ही अपराध अगर CA करेगा तो उसे सजा मिलेगी और उसी अपराध को अगर वकील करेगा तो उसे सजा नहीं मिलेगी. भेदभाव पर आधारित इस व्यवस्था को पिछली कांग्रेस सरकारों ने पल्ल्वित-पोषित किया था जिसकी वजह से कांग्रेस पार्टी का खुद अपना वजूद खतरे में पड़ा हुआ है.

मोदी सरकार अगर कांग्रेस के जमाने में हुयी इन गलतियों को सुधारने की बजाये, खुद उसी की तरह काम करेगी तो इसमें कोई शक नहीं है कि आने वाले समय में मोदी सरकार का हाल कांग्रेस पार्टी से भी बदतर होगा.

(लेखक एक चार्टर्ड अकाउंटेंट हैं और टैक्स मामलों के विशेषज्ञ है)

Modi’s killer media strategy

Naagesh Padmanaban
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Modi’s killer media strategy

It is no exaggeration that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the one among the select band of leaders, probably a cherry picked few among Indian politicians in recent memory, who have been hounded by the main stream media (MSM), both print and electronic. In that sense, he shares a common experience and can empathize with President Donald Trump of the US. But their similarities probably end there.

The two leaders are upright public figures who take their responsibilities and public duties seriously. Both have been repeatedly pushed to the wall by the media. But their responses and how they handled MSM has been vastly different.

The all-powerful President of the US has often taken to social media– and particularly Twitter– to vent his anger against the media. He has gone so far as to brand them liars and peddlers of ‘fake’ news. His huge twitter following 32 million followers and counting- has keenly followed every minute of these exchanges.

But the Prime Minister Modi’s response to an offensive media, on the other hand, has been totally different. He has not publicly uttered angry remarks or expressed his frustration on twitter. Yet Modi’s stealth, yet killer media strategy seems to have sapped the very life out of the main stream media in India. This can be vouched by discerning insights gleaned over the last few years by piecing together publicly available data on declining readership/ viewership, as well as the prime-time space yielded to new players like Republic TV in the tough Indian television and entertainment market.

Ever since Modi came to the limelight as the Chief Minister of Gujarat state and started making waves, the media and his political opponents have been after him. In hindsight, they were probably the first to correctly identify him then as a future prime minister material and set in motion their game plan to stop him. Hence his hounding by the media and his political adversaries who often, worked hand in glove.

As a shrewd politician, Modi never had illusions about the role of the press. He had experienced first-hand how a press that was ‘friendly’ to his political opponents had almost destroyed his political career. But that was when they held complete sway on the media outlets and network infrastructure. On becoming the Prime Minister, he sought to marshal all available resources and deploy a clever strategy to gain a toe hold for his own view of the world. He embarked on one of the most comprehensive overhauls of the information dissemination machinery, rebuilding it from scratch, one brick at a time.

As with his anti-corruption drive, Modi relied heavily on technology. The range of tools he has used is mind boggling – from social media to mobile apps and everything in between.  But the real show stealer is his use of Twitter. With over 30 million followers, he has one of the biggest twitter followings in the world. Every tweet from the Prime Minister will reach an audience that is more than the combined weekly viewership of all major English news channels in India. See table below, courtesy Broadcast Audience Research council India (BARC). Most importantly, he is assured of a distortion free transmission to his target audience.

Modi has not simply stopped at building a huge following. He has engaged them creatively to sustain and retain this massive following. For example, there is a two-way flow of information as he often seeks to crowd-source ideas from them. Many have contributed topics and discussion items for Modi’s monthly radio broadcast program, Mann Ki Baat. His radio address is a runaway success particularly in rural India where large numbers gather to listen to him.

The biggest coup d’état of sorts is his use of YouTube. Videos of every public event addressed by Modi, his foreign travels, visits of dignitaries, election campaigns- all are posted to his YouTube channel. The Narendra Modi channel with over 650,000 subscribers is another huge captive viewer pool he has meticulously cultivated. This platform by itself has helped Modi take on the biased electronic media, obviating the need to commit time and resources to fight and fix distorted versions that the media in India has been dishing out for so long.

The Narendra Modi mobile app is equally powerful. With nearly 10 million downloads just of the android version, it delivers his messages directly to the mobile phone and tablets.

Modi’s personal familiarity and comfort level with information technology has been central to the evolution of this alternative media resource. In India’s political spectrum there are very few who can match or even come close. The Prime Minister’s media strategy reveals a shrewd awareness of the ingredients for success- India’s high tele-density (84%), high broadband subscription (192 million) as well as a huge younger ‘demographic dividend’ of the population. His personal political acumen knitted all this into a killer strategy that now dominates the discourse in India.

In totality, Modi has created an alternative media resource, a complete information dissemination platform and infrastructure, that has bypassed and even ignored the mainstream media. He has successfully retained the audience and slowly over the years has changed the narrative and now controls it. Modi successfully turned the tables on the media.

There are important lessons for both the media and politicians in a technology driven century. With new technological innovations popping up regularly that can disrupt existing business models or the way things ‘used to be done’, it is imperative to not take things for granted. A determined leader with a clear vision, riding on the back of disruptive technologies can usher in changes in any sphere of human endeavor- faster than many can imagine. And that could be a daunting challenge for the media. The media can no longer have a free run in pushing an agenda driven spin, for the hounded can now strike back. The spin doctors may have to pay the ultimate price of becoming irrelevant, as the Indian experience testifies. Therein lies a media lesson for President Donald Trump and other political leaders of the world.

Trump should stop acting as a ‘Global Super Cop’

antinationalpatriot
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Trump should stop acting as a ‘Global Super Cop’

Donald Trump is needlessly provoking North Korea by issuing unwarranted statements besides indulging in actions directed towards Pyongyang. Warning North Korea of U.S. unilateral military action besides dispatching the nuclear powered USS Michigan Submarine to Busan, South Korea and B-1B nuclear bombers to the Korean Peninsula prove the unjustified aggression of the Americans.

There’s an old adage in English; ‘Don’t start something, you can’t finish’.

USA’s record in initiating conflicts around the world is there for everyone to see. Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya. In none of these wars, U.S. forces could achieve a clear-cut victory. Americans messed up smoothly functioning stable nations like Iraq, Syria, and Libya; thereby, creating further tensions/ problems.

Prior to his assassination in 2011, initiated by the U.S. led bombing campaign. Muammar Gaddafi positively transformed Libya as the country with the highest human development index, the lowest infant mortality rate and the highest life expectancy in the whole of African continent.

Due to the needless U.S. intervention, Libya became a failed state. South Libya now-a-days is dominated by Islamic state militants while, the Northern coast of Libya has turned into a hub for human migrants trafficking. Instability in the Middle East and Libya has resulted in a deluge of refugees to Europe.

European nations are bearing the brunt of U.S. military adventurism by having to deal with large waves of displaced people coming to their lands. This has created huge social and economic strains between these emigrants and the native European populations. The oft repeated excuse of U.S. in defending their regime change tactics around the world reeks strongly of hypocrisy and double standards. If U.S. is so concerned about imposing their model of democracy on the world, they should start with Middle East hereditary monarchies like Saudi-Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Oman.

All these countries are close allies of U.S.A. Surprisingly, none of the aforesaid countries and members of the U.S. alliance are offering assistance and refuge to the conflict fleeing Syrians and Iraqis, inspite of them having similar religious as well as cultural background.

Why doesn’t ‘Uncle Sam’ mentor it’s, Middle East allies about democratic values, freedom and human rights? No individual or nation has the moral right to preach others about something which they themselves indulge in. U.S. possesses Nuclear weapons so, what ethical high ground and authority does it has to pressurize North Korea to abandon its nuclear program?

This is utter bullying on the part of U.S. administration. Kim Jong-un is the leader of North Korea. He has the authority to run North Korea, the way he deems fit. U.S. is behaving like a bully by threatening North Korea. North and South Korea are perpetually ‘at each other’s throats’ but everyone knows that it’s just a show of ‘one upmanship’ between them. Neither North nor South Korea would initiate a major military action against the other.

Conducting missile tests and war exercises is just a routine affair, nothing to get ‘worked up’ about. Trump should focus on his own nation. U.S.A is grappling with grave issues of interracial tensions, unemployment and a sagging economy. There is no point in Trump neglecting his domestic priorities and start acting as a global super-cop.

The recent actions of Trump, launching Tomahawk cruise missiles on Syrian air base without any credible evidence of Assad’s involvement in the so called chemical attack and dropping the biggest bomb on Afghanistan are just meant to intimidate the world.

These are diversionary tactics of the U.S. military industry complex to divert the attention of American citizens from the issues requiring urgent attention at the domestic front. Kim Jong-un is fully capable of delivering a knock-out punch to U.S., should Trump make the mistake of military intervention in North Korea.

Trump should back off from the Korean Peninsula and abandon the doctrine of modern U.S. neo- imperialism. This has just resulted in chaos, misery, deaths and suffering, wherever U.S. has intervened.

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