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How can the BJP still win with landslide numbers in the 2019 general elections?

RAJEEV GUPTA
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How can the BJP still win with landslide numbers in the 2019 general elections?
The recently concluded by-elections have come as a rude shock for the BJP. By-elections were held in the country in 4 Lok Sabha and 11 Assembly constituencies on May 28.
The BJP just managed to win only one Lok Sabha and one Assembly seat. Political analysts are surprised to see that somehow the narrative set by the mainstream media has started producing results and the opposition parties have somehow cracked the formula of cornering the Modi government in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections due to be held in 2019.

However, the analysis made by the so-called political experts and the reason being given for the poor performance of the BJP is far from reality. The opposition parties, even after forming a united alliance or “mahagathbandhan” are not in a position to defeat the Modi government. Only the core BJP supporters can ensure a victory or defeat for the party in any election. At the moment the core BJP supporters are angry with the party as it has not fulfilled its promises despite a period of 4 years have passed. These “angry voters” are either not coming to vote or are pressing the NOTA button in every election thereby helping the opposition parties indirectly. These core BJP supporters-turned angry voters are now feeling that the Modi government is not doing enough to implement its pre-poll promises. Let us first summarise below the expectations and the pre-poll promises of the Modi government:

  1. There was a pre-poll promise that all the political leaders involved in corruption during the last 60 years of misrule shall be put behind bars. Not a single leader has been sent to jail and all are roaming free, challenging and abusing Modi and trying to form a “mahagathbandhan” to defeat Modi in 2019. The BJP is giving an explanation that most of the corrupt opposition leaders have been granted bail by the courts and it is helpless. The BJP supporters are not convinced with this explanation and want all corrupt politicians in jail as soon as possible.
  2. The Modi government is not doing enough to tackle anti-national elements. People are angry with the BJP for forming a government in coalition with Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP in Jammu & Kashmir and want that the Army to deal with these elements as they deem fit. People got particularly angered with the suspension of security operations during Ramzan, for example.
  3. While the Congress is making all-out efforts to postpone the Supreme Court verdict in the Ram Mandir case with Kapil Sibal even requesting the apex court to postpone the hearing in the matter until the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are held, the BJP is not making any efforts to expedite the matter.
  4. The BJP is also completely silent on repealing of Article 370 and implementation of a Uniform Civil Code.
  5. The BJP has not taken any action against the jungle raj prevailing in Kerala and West Bengal where Hindus and BJP workers are regularly beaten and murdered on large scale. Both these states are perfect cases fit for the imposition of President’s rule. But the BJP has done nothing to dismiss these state governments.
  6. The core voters of the BJP have demonstrated this anger in all the by-elections, giving sufficient hints to the BJP top brass to mend its ways, but nothing concrete is being done. In Karnataka, the BJP lost at least 10 seats due to NOTA factor which ultimately resulted in the party sitting in the opposition. BJP’s victory margin was reduced in Gujarat due to NOTA factor.

The Lok Sabha elections are due in 2019 and very limited time is left with the government to act on the above agenda. The BJP had won 282 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. Political experts feel that if the BJP starts working now on all these issues on a war footing, it can easily win more than 400 seats. However, if all these issues are not addressed or taken up immediately, voters are ready to teach the government another lesson with NOTA.

सुब्रमनियन स्वामी के अनुसार बीजेपी की हार के मुख्य कारण

Chetan Prinja
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सुब्रमनियन स्वामी के अनुसार बीजेपी की हार के मुख्य कारण

कल के उपचुनाव के परिणाम ने यह तो दिखा दिया क़ि 2019 की राह बीजेपी और प्रधानमंत्री नरेंद्र मोदी के लिए आसान नहीं होने वाली।अगर विपक्षी दल एक साथ मिल कर चुनाव लड़े तो बीजेपी को 2019 में पटखनी दे सकते है।

अगर ऐसे ही परिणाम अगले लोकसभा चुनाव में भी आते है तो बीजेपी के लिए 2019 में अपने दम पर बहुमत प्राप्त करना दूर की कौड़ी साबित होगा। और अगर बीजेपी अगले लोकसभा चुनाव में बहुमत के आंकड़े से पीछे रह कर सबसे बड़ा दल बनकर भी उभरती है तो शायद इसके लिए कर्नाटक चुनाव की तरह से बहुमत के करीब पहुँच पाना अत्यंत कठिन हो जाएगा।

जैसे क़ि कांग्रेस अध्यक्ष राहुल गांधी ने बयान दिया था कि बीजेपी अगर बहुमत के आंकड़े से काफी पीछे रह कर भी सबसे बड़े दल के रूप में उभरती भी है तो नरेंद्र मोदी से नफरत के कारण NDA के सहयोगी दल भी अपने बीजेपी को सहयोग के बदले मोदी की जगह राजनाथ सिंह को प्रधानमंत्री बनाना चाहंगे।

पिछले कुछ समयः से राजनीति के नए शाह बनकर उभरे और बीजेपी के अपने चाणक्य अमित शाह भी इस बात से भली भांति अवगत होंगे। और इससे मोदी के लिए दोहरी खतरे की घंटी बज चुकी है। तो आखिर कहाँ पर बीजेपी गलती कर रही है।इसका जवाब बीजेपी के ही एक और नेता सुब्रमनियन स्वामी ने दिया,

“उनके हिसाब से बीजेपी का कोर हिन्दू वोटर जिसने 2014 के चुनाव में इसकी जीत में अहम् भूमिका निभाई थी वो इससे नाराज हो गया है, क्योंकि उसे लग रहा है क़ि शायद बीजेपी अपने हिन्दुत्त्व के एजेंडे से भटक चुकी है और कांग्रेस की तरह सेकुलरिज्म के एजेंडे पर चल पड़ी है।”

और स्वामी के अनुसार अगर बीजेपी यही गलती दोहराती रही तो इसका हाल भी वाजपेयी की सरकार की तरह ही होगा। जब सारे एग्जिट पोल को झुठलाते हुए इसे हार का मुंह देखना पड़ा था।स्वामी के मुताबिक तब बीजेपी “Shining India” की वजह से हारी थी और अबकी बार विकास और अच्छे दिन की वजह से यह हारने के करीब पहुँच चुकी है।

असल में बीजेपी यह भूल चुकी है कि चुनाव में उसे वोट राम मंदिर बनाने, धारा 370 ख़तम करने और यूनिफार्म सिविल कॉर्ड लाने के लिए हिन्दू वोटर्स ने इसे वोट दिए थे। लेकिन यह अभी तक इस में से किसी भी वादे को पूरा नहीं कर पाई है। दूसरा इसने महंगाई कम करने का भी दावा किया था किंतु अंतर्राष्ट्रीय बाजार में कच्चे तेल की कीमतें कम होने के बावजूद भी भारत देश में कच्चे तेल की कीमतें लगातार बढ़ रही है।

स्वामी जी के अनुसार बीजेपी को अपने कोर वोटर को साथ में बनाएं रखने और जनता को वापिस बीजेपी की तरफ करने के लिए राम मंदिर पर जल्द से जल्द संसद में बिल लाना होगा, और हिंदुत्व के मुद्दे पर किए गए वादे पूरे करने होंगे। क्योंकि बीजेपी को अगर 2019 का चुनाव जीतना है तो इसको चुनाव हिंदुत्व के मुद्दे पर लड़ना होगा तभी यह फिर से पूर्ण बहुमत से सत्ता में आ पाएगी। और तभी इसके अहम सहयोगी दल जैसे शिवसेना और बाकि हिन्दू वोटर्स भी खुद को ठगा हुआ महसूस नहीं करेंगे। और अगर बीजेपी वापिस विकास और मुस्लिम तुष्टिकरण की सियासत करेगी तो फिर इसका हाल “शाइनिंग इंडिया” वाला ही होगा।

A strongly cemented party BJP, versus ‘A la carte’ parties

G Indira
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A strongly cemented party BJP, versus ‘A la carte’ parties

The ground is set for the parliament elections of 2019. Disparate opposition parties formed an alliance with the sole object of defeating the BJP with a faceless (literally) Prime Ministerial candidate.

In a recent interview (to assess the performance of the NDA-BJP’s four-year rule at the Centre), the Congress stalwart, the formulate master of saffron- terror, Sri Chidambaram admitted to the anchor-journalist Rajdeep Sardesai, when asked who the Prime ministerial candidate of the hotchpotch coalition at the national level would be, his answer was, “I don’t know”. That means the coalition is faceless. Though being a Congressman, he did not name Rahul Gandhi immediately. That sent a signal to the viewers that the weight of the dynasty- successor Rahul Gandhi would not match-up with the weight of the PM Modi.

The parties are so vague of their coalition that they are unable to choose a heavy-weight leader of Prime ministerial material with pan India face that could lead them for 2019 electoral battle. How can these parties with an a la’ carte attitude in many matters make a formidable bid to power?

In fact, the Congress wants to come to power piggyback by propping them all up now. As of today, the aam admi is with the BJP unlike in 2004 as the party effectively brought Antodaya- principle to the fore. That is, it has taken social welfare measures to the last man.

The chances of the BJP’s winnability with 2014- kind of mandate may be bleak. For, in the last parliamentary elections the BJP of Modi was untested. Now since people have savoured it for four-years and have gone through the agni-pareeksha of Demo and hiccups of the GST, the reactions of the people in India are mixed. The PM might have tried with bitter pills to make the economy better later, but the process was thorny.

Anyway, there is one more year for course correction. Besides economic factors, there are political factors that have their share in the electoral market. The mood of the people in the Hindi belt, where the BJP came to saturation point is to be assessed as most of them go for assembly elections in December this year. The northern states are always the deciders as to who will form the government at the Centre in a parliamentary election, since they have the highest number of parliamentary seats.

As far as the South is concerned, right now there are strong winds blowing against the BJP and also PM Modi, especially in Andhra Pradesh. These were ignited by Telugu Desam Party (TDP) by holding a victim-card. The BJP delayed to counter the menace. The party did not nip it in the bud. The BJP cadres in Andhra and Telangana are a deadwood to the party. They never seem to take up people’s problems with sufficient passion. They have been conspicuous by their absence in the public sphere all these four-years. Only now on the eve of 2019 elections, this year, they are simply showing up before the public and are waiting for the Modi-magic to rescue. At school level a slow-learner (a dull student in the earlier academic parlance) would wait for teacher to push him to study or learn things. Without the teacher’s aid that slow-student cannot perform. Similarly, in the Telugu states, the Office-bearers of the BJP wait for their bosses to come from Delhi to push them. Unfortunately, these cadres always bask in the glory of Modi, not on their individual work/merit. They never try to help themselves by doing their bit of service. This parasitic attitude sickens the people.

Telangana is a fortress ruled by K. Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR)-dynasty. KCR has no-holds-barred generosity like that of Karna in Mahabharat! Of Course, a counterfeit Karna! He promises everything to everybody without caring how he delivers. He promised 12% reservations to Muslim-minority by inserting the whole community into Backward Classes (BC) status as the Constitution of India does not permit reservations on religious basis.

During the time of Independence, the Muslims were not backward. Now after 70-years of Independence, they have suddenly become backward in Telangana. What have all these secular governments been doing all the while? The Muslims were the rulers in Nizam once. How could they be equated to backward?  In fact, the Muslim minorities in Telangana or Andhra never agitated for these reservations. Only our secular-rulers promised them, without the Muslims themselves championing the cause. So much so their affection for the minorities. Both in Andhra and Telangana there is a 4% reservation already existing for the Muslims. A writ was filed against it in S.C. to be unconstitutional. Yet, KCR hiked this 4% to 12%. With this change the reservations in Telangana reached to 72% crossing the bar of 50% laid down by the Supreme Court.

So, the CM of Telangana, sent it to the Central Government to add it in the ninth schedule to ratify the hike. Fortunately, the BJP being at the Centre did not include it in the ninth schedule. One good principle with the BJP is, as far as the reservations are concerned, it has stuck to Supreme Court’s stand of not exceeding 50%. Even this Muslim-reservation issue has not been taken up head-on by the local BJP leaders in Telangana. They have no verve. At least borrowing some of the BJP leaders from North, would make things work better in South.

The a la carte parties formed as ‘ONE’ have strong sympathies for minorities and creating special privileges to them in the garb of secularism. They would definitely upturn the picture of India if elected. They would bring-in reservations to Muslims all over the states in India with K. Chandrasekhar Rao and Mamatha Banerjee being a la carte’s powerful components.

Of late, KCR came to know the impact of his promise i.e 12% reservation to Muslims minorities (in fact, the second majorities of India) He is getting aware of that it is not going down well with many in his state. He is trying to change the impression by saying he would give reservation to economically backward OCs also, which is again impossible Constitutionally. In the recently held Mahanadu (an annual conclave of Telugu Desam Party), the Chief Minister, Chandra Babu Naidu’s son Nara Lokesh declared that the BJP is the main opposition party for the ruling TDP in Andhra Pradesh now and not the Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSRCP.

According to Lokesh YSRCP is an irrelevant party and is sustained and supported by the BJP’s supplied oxygen. Now with his statement BJP has acquired the status of the main opposition which it never was. So, coming out of the shadows of TDP, which contained the growth of the BJP so long, is a good step. Now the BJP is in a laudable position. However, the negative, vicious campaigning against the BJP and Modi in the state, Andhra Pradesh, by the TDP will become an uphill task for the BJP to counter. Right now, the propaganda against the saffron party is at a high- decibel.

The BJP has to nullify it at tremendous speed and alacrity.  The Tirumala Tirupati Devasthanam (TTD) -Temple issue is becoming murky. Telugu Desam Party is trying to prove that it is more Hindu and more the protector temple properties than the BJP, which is questionable. The BJP has to make some quick moves to gain people’s confidence to make them understand that it is a serious political contender in the state to solve their problems than the TDP. The picture in Telugu speaking states is not so rosy but it is not incorrigible. If the BJP would not set-right its house in the South immediately, particularly in Telugu speaking states, the states would go out of its hands. Of course, ‘a stitch in time saves nine’ is an old adage.

Sonia-Rahul’s foreign trip: snubbing Kumaraswamy or setting a trap?

jmetamedia
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Sonia-Rahul’s foreign trip: snubbing Kumaraswamy or setting a trap?

One week is an eternity in Politics. Yet Sonia and Rahul will not be in India for more than a week.

They were last seen in public, during the swearing-in ceremony of HD Kumaraswamy, the new CM of Karnataka. The official reason for their foreign sojourn is Sonia’s yearly health checkup. We wish all the good health to her and hope she is hale and healthy.

What are the hidden reasons behind this sudden, prolonged and rather curious absence from India? There are some “not so official” reasons for her absence:-

1. Agree to Kumaraswamy’s political”dowry” demand’s, but set the agenda with a “big fat powerful wedding”!

We all know what happened in Karnataka after the hung assembly verdict.

BJP lamely tried to outsmart Sonia while Sonia, in turn, outsmarted BJP, albeit successfully.

Sonia had the direct “1 am” lifeline to  Supreme Court Justices’, which in spite of ruling Centre and 20 odd states, BJP lacks to this day. Worse, BJP cannot even get a proper hearing in any court. Hats off to Sonia’s ecosystem!

(To hell with the millions of Indian undertrials who are yet to see a day in court in-spite of rotting in prison for decades. Some smart “neta” must make this legalized injustice an election issue.)

Long story short currently we have a Sonia supported UPA government in Karnataka lead by HD Kumaraswamy, who has a measly 38 seats out of 224 seats in the assembly.

Here in lies the finer print. Unlike other UPA allies, Kumaraswamy smartly negotiated directly with the Gandhi’s. (read Sonia, with Rahul smiling sheepishly). No one, not even senior bigwigs like Ghulam Nabi Azad or Mallikarjun Kharge or Siddaramaiah were good enough of Kumaraswamy for the negotiations.

This is a classic power tactic. A small lord who insists on negotiating only with the Queen, in one single stroke cuts all the big lords to size. This is exactly what happened.

Sonia knew this.

She also understood that Kumaraswamy must be bluffing when he said he does not want to be the CM. So she allowed him to have his little power games, for the time being.

Meanwhile, she made sure a big swearing-in ceremony is held in the presence of all the opposition bigwigs. This is akin to a marriage which is always a public celebration, thus indirectly making sure that the bride and groom will stick to each other, as they had made a public commitment to one another.

This was not only a major media spectacle across India, but was keenly watched by every Congress and JDU voter in Karnataka. Now Kumaraswamy has to think at least a 1000 times if he wants to walk out of this marriage.

Even if he walks out after such a “public marriage” he might permanently lose the valuable “Muslim minority” vote in Old Mysore region of Karnataka, which is his base.

Why do you think PFI met CM Kumaraswamy after the swearing-in ceremony? Was it not an subtle blackmail:- “Stay with Sonia or else…!”

(Since it’s all Sonia’s planning, Rahul gets no marks)

Sonia 1 Kumaraswamy 0 Rahul 0

2. Underline your presence by your absence:- force Kumaraswamy to negotiate with lesser lords!

Kumaraswamy has to negotiate with the likes of Azad, Kharge, Moiley, Antony etc as Sonia and Rahul are not in India. This cut Kumaraswamy to size at the negotiating table.  As he started negotiating with the lesser lords about the cabinet formation, he lost his negotiating power.

He is increasingly looking weak and desperate coming out with the statements like “CM chair was forced on us”. He also declared that he is at the mercy of Sonia and “Punyatma” Rahul.

Sonia and Rahul are nowhere to be found, yet their power is everywhere especially at the negotiation table.

Sonia 2 Kumaraswamy 0 Rahul 0

3. Set a trap to Amit Shah?

Kumaraswamy won the confidence vote on the floor of the assembly. Now all UPA supporting MLA’s are relatively free.

Amit Shah’s “mythical” appetite for more MLA’s is well known. As Sonia is out of town and UPA MLA’s out of their jails, Amit Shah might try some tricks

Who knows some of these UPA MLA’s are ready with some hidden devices to ensnare BJP bigwigs? We have seen how “fake tapes” were used to discredit BJP leaders immediately after the election results.

This will work only if Kumaraswamy plays along with Sonia.

Sonia 2.5 Kumaraswamy 0.5 Rahul 0

4. Hide Rahul from failure, yet claim victory if everything goes as planned.

Rahul will not get any negative for this, yet claim a positive score when the time comes. Hence 0 score for him, for the time being.

Sonia 2.5 Kumaraswamy 0.5 Rahul 0

5.  What can go wrong in Sonia’s absence?

Of course, this whole plan can blow up badly in Sonia’s face.

This happened in 2013 after Telangana was formed.

  • In 2013, KCR went to congratulate Sonia after the formation of Telangana state.
  • He wanted to merge his TRS party with Congress.
  • In return, he was expecting the CM ship.
  • Sonia did not want to negotiate with a lesser lord like KCR.
  • Sonia calmly asked him to talk to AP in charge Digvijay Singh about it. (a lesser lord)
  • Digvijay acted smart during the negotiations.
  • KCR felt snubbed.
  • He angrily returned to Telangana, fought the 2014 elections on his own and won handsomely
  • Now he is the undisputed king of Telangana, at least till the next elections.

Hence one more reason for their absence, as failure can be thrust on some of the lesser lords who actually did the bulwark for her.

Looking forward

Kumaraswamy must realize that Sonia too needs Karnataka badly. Once he realizes this he can regain the upper hand in the negotiations.

Further, he has Amit Shah who is ready to embrace him wholeheartedly.

In such a scenario Sonia’s “1 am Lifeline” to Supreme Court might not work wonders.

But for the time being, this scenario is a “big if”.

The limits to a united opposition

jayeshsinha
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The limits to a united opposition

PM Modi recently inaugurated the first phase of the Delhi-Meerut expressway, which will be India’s first 14 lane highway. The plan for the expressway was approved when the Modi cabinet had just begun, in June 2014 and was targeted to be completed in two and a half years from the start of construction.

Construction on the $1.2 billion project got underway on 31 December 2016 and the project was completed a full year ahead of schedule. This is a feat that should be welcomed by all, regardless of their political leanings.

Projects in India rarely get complete on schedule, let alone ahead of schedule. The extremely shoddy handling of the preparations for the Commonwealth Games in Delhi immediately springs to mind and we all remember the pictures on TV of a portion of the roof falling down on the eve of the opening of the 2010 games. It was a sight that embarrassed the whole nation.

The Prime Minister and the Road Transport and Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari deserve praise for their efficient handling of the project.

As the country heads into the final year of Modi’s term as PM, naturally focus and attention has turned to the general elections. The opposition has started to unite and the gathering of leaders in Karnataka for HD Kumaraswamy’s swearing-in painted a compelling and intriguing picture.

AAP’s Kejriwal was there, who has become virtually irrelevant at the political stage. Just how he fits into the alliance with Congress, who he has vehemently fought against at the state level is anyone’s guess. The Congress has no members in the Delhi Assembly, but if they did then they would sit in the opposition against Kejariwal’s AAP in the Assembly.

Then there was Trinamool Congress’ Mamata Banerjee who shared the stage with the CPI(M)’s Sitaram Yechury and Rahul Gandhi of the Congress, both those parties sit in the opposition in West Bengal where Trinamool is in power.

Just how this united opposition alliance will take shape in the face of such open contradictions is anyone’s guess. Suppose this alliance was to formally be stitched up then will Congress and CPI(M) continue to be in the opposition in West Bengal or will they all become one large alliance government in West Bengal.

If they choose to fight against Modi together in the general election but continue to be rivals in the state then will that not send out some very strange and confusing signals to the voters?

The truth is for now those questions are irrelevant to the parties and the parties themselves don’t care about it.

Their primary aim is to simply defeat Modi in the general elections. They feel that by coming together and preventing the split of anti-Modi votes, Modi could be defeated. What happens after that has not been discussed, or more accurately, no one has had the courage to discuss.

I am no political pundit, but it seems that such an alliance would be successful only in one scenario, that is if people are so disgruntled with Modi, that they just want to replace him at any cost. Who’s the replacement doesn’t matter then. In this scenario, the people would be ready to replace Modi with any other party if such a party exists, with another alliance if such an alliance exists, and if they can’t find an alliance then they will replace him with a lamppost if they could.

This attempt at a unified opposition alliance is in many ways a reflection of the alliance cobbled together to defeat Indira Gandhi in the 1977 elections, which was a post-emergency election. Following the imposition of emergency, the anger in the people was indeed at anyone but Indira Gandhi level and the united opposition won the election.

If things are indeed so bad for Modi, then such a contradiction-filled alliance will indeed work. Whether the things are actually so bad, I am inclined to think not. People, even if they are unhappy with Modi, will look at the alternative and if they don’t find the alternative to be fit enough, they will stick with Modi, grudgingly if need be.

That is not to say people are not unhappy with Modi, of course they are and no one will deny that PM Modi no longer enjoys the mass support he did before the 2014 elections. However have things got to the point where people are willing to say just anyone as long as it’s not Modi, I am not so sure.

Nearly all media outlets had a debate or a shouting contest where everyone tried to shout at everyone else in the debate simultaneously, depending on which channel you watched, on how the upcoming general elections will shape up.

Two topics invariably dominated all these debates, namely, the united opposition and fuel prices. The fuel prices issue is a simple one.  When in opposition the BJP had made it a key issue against the incumbent UPA government, but now when they are in power they fuel prices continue to skyrocket.

The NDA ministers have not given any reply which could be said to have even a semblance of a coherent response to the questions asked of them on the issue. With each inconsistency that shows up between the stance of the PM on an issue in 2013 and 2018, the sincerity of the PM is called into question and his credibility takes a hit.

However, the inconsistency doesn’t lie with just one party. I recall that soon after PM Modi had taken office the fuel prices had taken a tumble and the current opposition had been quick to point out that PM Modi had little to do with the fall in fuel prices.

If you don’t give the person credit when fuel prices fell, why blame him for when the prices rise. Equally when the current government was happy to claim credit for fall in fuel prices, why are they now shying away from the questions when the prices are high?

The second issue that dominated the news cycles was that of the united opposition. Everyone wanted to know just how does the united opposition change the picture of the coming general elections.

I feel, again as a layman in this regard, that the Indian media has started to over-complicate the general elections. First of all, BJP is not an all India party, and so whether CPI(M) does tie up with Trinamool is by and large irrelevant. BJP doesn’t have much presence in West Bengal and is just as likely to lose to Trinamool alone as it is to an alliance of Trinamool and Congress and CPI(M).

In states like Gujarat and Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, Himachal, Uttarakhand, etc. there are no regional parties worth mentioning. It’s a direct contest between BJP and Congress where (say) TDP and JDS coming together will have no bearing on the results.

The only alliances that really mean anything will be between the regional parties of UP and Maharashtra (if Shiv Sena goes with the Congress and NCP). The rest of the parties don’t really bring much to the table when it comes to defeating BJP in North India, which is BJP’s base.

The general election isn’t about how united the opposition is. That is an unnecessarily complicated road to go down.

During the tenure of PM Modi, BJP has claimed a lot of work has been done and they speak about a lot of them, however, of these, they lay emphasis on a few more than the rest.

These few are gas cylinders to the poor, toilets in all or most villages/homes and electricity in every village. If PM Modi has indeed delivered on these three fronts then he won’t lose the elections.

The fact is that the poor are most active voters in India. If the poor indeed have these very basic of amenities for the 1st time since India’s independence, because of PM Modi and his govt. then they will not vote against him.

The one active voter section that remains is the farmers and there is no disputing the fact that farmers are currently in a very poor condition. Even on that ground PM Modi, after holding off on the announcement so far, was forced to announce an increased MSP of 1.5 times the production cost for both Rabi and Kharif crops.

If this is implemented properly and the farmers are satisfied then they will be another key category of voter who will back Modi in the general elections. If this is not implemented properly then it will hurt BJP and Modi.

The general election doesn’t depend on how united the opposition is. The general election is really all about what Modi has done in these 3 or 4 areas. If the poor are happy with Modi, Modi wins. Everything else seems irrelevant.

When a Liberal ‘hits’ the gym

Nivya
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When a Liberal ‘hits’ the gym

The video challenge by MoS Sports Ministry, Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore has been a success. People from all across the country, from celebrities to the common man are sharing their fitness videos, to show that they too are fit and by prodding others to do the same. While the country goes on its morning jogs and exercises, some are still muttering under their breath, criticising the video challenge-campaign.

To no one’s surprise, it’s a writer from The Wire, who right now would probably be seated in an air-conditioned room, dreaming about Mamata Banerjee as PM in 2019.

The writer in an article titled “Elitist #HumFitTohIndiaFit Campaign Divorces Fitness From Health,” claims that this is an attempt to put ‘self before society’. The author misses out that is that the campaign seeks to inspire others by setting an example. He states that the campaign promotes an ‘elitist and Page-3 notion of critical issues of health and fitness.’ He then cites examples of how Anushka Sharma and other politicians, by posting videos of them exercising in a private gym is an indication of the same.

This is of course a very selective approach of looking at the issue because many, many tweets, be it Shefali Vaidya’s mother doing yoga or the picture of the 75-year old Sri Ramaswami Iyengar in Melkote, carrying water from the sacred pond every day, show common people trying to be fit in the most ordinary of ways. The author doesn’t cite these example because that punctures the narrative that whatever the government does, panders only to the upper class.

The writer further writes that those posting videos are doing so to please the political establishment and their ideology or to borrow from Namrata Zakaria’s dictionary, ‘to suck up to the boss.’ He states that the video of JNU’s VC exercising is also an attempt to please the political class. This is an argument that can be given only by a person who treats fitness as a BJP thing, alien to the Congress or the Communists and as though it isn’t something universal, done by people for their well-being. But Congress’ Manish Tewari also joined the challenge, a rare incident where at least one member of the Opposition has appreciated a good initiative by a Union Minister.

The writer claims that such videos boost ‘self-obsession’ because maybe according to him, being fit to keep oneself healthy is ‘self-obsession’ and also says that even Swachh Bharat  is done by people to gain entry to a ‘Page-3 club in national media.’ He clearly doesn’t understand that Swachh Bharat is no more a government campaign but has rather become a people’s campaign. When students join the Swachh Bharat Summer Internship Campaign to devote 100 hours to improving cleanliness, they do not do so to gain attention but rather to give back something to their country, with a feeling of selflessness. The writer does not seem to understand such sentiments.

The writer then equated fitness to autocracy, in the most unbelievable way.

“The hierarchical relationship in fitness centers is possibly what begins to provide legitimacy to autocracy, and one ‘hands over’ one’s body to another in hope of fitness. At a political level, such reasoning has manifold implications.”

This is stupid on so many levels. Firstly, is it already established that going to a gym is not the only way to get fit. Secondly, how can a trainer’s instructions be equated with political autocracy? Then, even a teacher who holds a student’s hand to guide him while he/she is learning to write should also be considered as some sort of preparation for dictatorships, at a ‘political level.’

Since this article was published in the Wire, how can the RSS not find a mention in the article? Of course, it does find a special mention.

“It must never be forgotten that physical drills with the objective of military training of Hindus were a core programme of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh from its initial years.”

Here again, the writer looks at fitness to be some sort of activity that is to be exclusive to only a few, here, the Sangh. He says that fitness is the RSS thing to do. One only needs to look at the Black Christian and liberal hero, Barack Obama (who doesn’t exactly fit into the Left’s view of a Sanghi man) doing push-ups to prove the writer wrong. There are many such examples.

When all over the world, awareness is being raised about the risks of leading a life without exercise and the call to people to lead a fit life is being heard loud and clear, a similar appeal in India attracts the ire of the Left. A simple campaign that inspires people to become fit is unnecessarily given political colors and is even rubbished by journalists. Surely, an initiative with a noble idea at its center should not be treated in such an unfair way. But then again, if I wish so I would be expecting too much. It is better for the rest of us to get fit and healthy rather than trying to prod the naysayers into doing the same. Let them be left behind, while the rest of us contribute to a more fit and healthier India, each of us in our own ways.

नेताजी बना रहे हैं

ajaychandel
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नेताजी बना रहे हैं

जब नेताजी नेता बने तब से उन्होंने बनाना शुरू कर दिया था। नेता कहते उन्होंने एक्सप्रेस-वे बनाया, लोग कहते उन्होंने सड़कें बनायीं जो बरसात में उधड़ गयीं। वे कहते उन्होंने इमारतें बनवाईं, लोग कहते उन्होंने अपनी पार्टी के दफ़्तर बनवाये। वे कहते हमने सारे शहर में कलाकृतियां बनवायीं, लोग कहते उन्होंने अपनी ही मूर्तियां और अपनी पार्टी के चुनाव चिन्ह को चारों तरफ चिपका दिया। वे कहते हमने व्यवस्था बनाई है और लोग कहते बेवकूफ बनाया है। नेता इतना कुछ बनाते रहे लेकिन बड़े ही दुःख की बात है कि अपने लिए घर नहीं बना पाए।

लोग मजाक में नेता से पूछते इतनी संपत्ति है घर बनवाये क्यों नहीं? नेता बोले एक बार एक मुशायरे में एक शायर कह रहे थे-

“लोग टूट जाते हैं एक घर बनाने में,
तुम तरस नहीं खाते बस्तियां जलाने में”

हमने सोचा कौन कमर तुड़वाये इसलिए नहीं बनवाये।

ये तो नेता कहते, लोग कहते- बनाये तो बहुत हैं, लेकिन रहते सरकारी वाले में हैं। सरकारी वाला मुफ्त का है और माल-ए-मुफ्त दिल-ए-बेरहम की तर्ज़ पे छोड़ा नहीं गया। जब वो मंत्री बने तब भी ये बंगला उनका था, और जब वो मंत्री नहीं रहे तब भी ये बंगला उनका ही है और अगर ये कोर्ट का हुक्म न होता तो ताउम्र इनका ही रहता, और उसके बाद इनकी ही समाधि बन जाता। अब जब कोर्ट ने बंगला खाली करवाने का आदेश निकाल ही दिया है, तो दिल हाय हाय कर उठता है। बड़े बे आबरू होकर इस बंगले से हम निकले वाला अहसास हो रहा है।

एक नेताजी तो कहते हैं बंगले से निकलेंगे तो रहेंगे कहाँ, हम फ्लैट ढूंढ रहे हैं भाई, और जनता कह रही है, आधा लखनऊ आपके चच्चा और अब्बा का है और आप फ्लैट ढूंढ रहे हैं? करोड़ों की घोषित संपत्ति है नेता जी की और इनके पास रहने को घर नहीं है। यकीन मानिये नेता जी फिर बना रहे हैं।

दूसरी देवी जी तो और ऊँची चीज़ निकलीं अपने बंगले को पहले ही एक स्मारक में बदल दिया और सरकार देखती रह गयी अब निकाल लो किसको निकलोगे। जब ये नेत्री बनी तो ये बंगला अपने नाम लिखवा लिया था, कहती थी कोई और आसरा नहीं, गरीब बाशिंदे हैं। अब लोग कह रहे हैं, ये हड़पने के हथकंडे हैं।

एक और नेता जी है, वे न बंगले में रहते हैं न आते हैं, लेकिन छोड़ते नहीं है, दिल्ली में भी ले रखा है और लखनऊ का छोड़ा नहीं जाता। ये तो उनकी लखनऊ से मोहब्बत समझिये ।एक नेता जी तो बंगले से राजभवन पहुँच गए लेकिन हाय! उन्स-ए-लखनऊ, ये लखनऊ का बंगला राजस्थान के राजभवन से कम थोड़ी है।

प्रश्न यह कि इनको ये बंगले इस तरह मिलते कैसे हैं? नेताओं को बंगले मिलते बड़े खुले दिल से हैं। दो भाई अगर सांसद हैं तो दोनों अलग बंगले लेंगे। पिता-पुत्र अगर सांसद हैं तो पिता पुत्र अलग अलग बंगले लेंगे। यहां तक कि अगर पति पत्नी दोनों सांसद हों तो बंगले के लिए शपथपत्र दे सकते हैं कि दोनों अलग रहते हैं। फिर कहना ये कि मिल रहा था तो ले लिया।

एक नेताजी नए नए उभरे थे बोले बंगला नही लेंगे गाड़ी नही लेंगे, जनता जिताए तो। जब जीत गए तो आज उनके पास गाडी है, बंगला है, बैंक बैलेंस है। लोग बस एक हाय निकालकर खुद से पूछते हैं हमारे पास क्या है?

इस देश का छोटे से छोटा आदमी नेताओं का पेट भरता है। नेताओं की गाड़ियों का बोझ ढोता है। नेताओं की यात्राओं को प्रायोजित करता है। लेकिन जब खुद की छत बनाने की बारी आती है तो कभी घास की कभी टीन की छत डाल कर, कभी खपरैल के नीचे भी सुखी रह लेता है, सब अपने छोटे छोटे घोंसले बना कर खुश रहते है, और नहीं भी बना पाते तो किराये के कमरों में ही खप कर मर जाते हैं। अगर देखा जाए तो आदमी की पूरी जिंदगी की आधी कमाई केवल अपने स्तर का घर बनाने में खर्च हो जाती है। लेकिन आदमी आदमी है और नेता नेता। नेताओं को मिलने वाली सुविधाओं से किसी को कोई शिकायत नहीं है बस लोगों को उम्मीद यह है कि ये नेता बस थोड़े से ईमानदार हो जाएँ। बाकी अपनी इज्जत अपने हाथ।

हालांकि नेताजी की तहजीब और लखनऊ का पानी है जो उन्हें रोके हुए हैं। जितने नेता हैं सब पहले आप पहले आप के चक्कर में बंगले छोड़ नहीं पा रहे हैं।

चलिए नेताजी, ईमानदारी दिखाइए, बाकी अपने आप पीछे आएंगे, पहले आप…

It’s our way or the highway – The ‘liberal’ scoop

thebaldindian
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It’s our way or the highway – The ‘liberal’ scoop

The dissolving space for dissent against the ‘liberal’ way of thinking.

“All men are created equal and endowed by their creator with certain unalienable rights, among these lives, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness”, the Declaration of Independence of the United States of America stated in 1776 predominantly highlighting the essence of the ‘Liberal principles’ to bring about equality among citizens. It was the foundation for establishing a ‘republic’ where the power rests in the hands of the people.

It’s not the same ever since.

Let us be very clear, Liberal ideology is and always has been a political movement, the association of the word ‘Liberalism’ gaining importance in politics since the 19th century. George Orwell in 1945, in his thinly veiled allegory against communism, ‘Animal Farm’ stated, “All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.” Today’s liberal ideology is an exemplary example of what he meant by that. But again, in principle, the lines between communism and liberalism diminishes the very second we step out of the personal economy domain.

The Indian ‘Liberal’ story

Mainstream liberals in India and the journalists who love themselves so much, perverse to their counterparts in the west, just like Conservatives and Nationalists and ‘Bhakths’ (A juvenile label by liberals to everyone who supports RW ideologies) are slaves to their own set of ideologies. The only difference being the Conservatives openly admit to their ideology. And this ‘liberal ideology’ has been nurtured for decades by political patronage and rewards.

The political environment has never been the same since 2014. Here is one tweet which explains, in principle, exactly what has been happening ever since.

Over the decades, the quintessential and cool ‘I am a liberal’, ‘Anti-majoritarian’ thinking has encroached all institutions of this country where suckery pays handsomely, be it politics, Bollywood, academia, or journalism. The rise of the assertive ‘Hindu’, at least in the online ideological spaces has not gone down well with these so-called ‘Leftists’. The rise of Modi and his popularity has rendered most of these ‘Secularists’ ideologically naked and compelled them to hate the very essence of the ‘majority’ culture of this nation. They are not even hiding it anymore.

The above ‘news’ was proved to be fake. No acknowledgment on the fake news whatsoever. Even the tweet is not deleted by @sagarikaghose, a prominent (can be contested) left-leaning journalist.

For decades, the political patrons of these people have reaped handsomely due to the ‘divided’ and politically subverted Hindus which they are trying to keep it that way by leaving no stones unturned, where even non-performance on the governance front would pass off without any scrutiny.

Take what has been happening in the past few days.

The investigation by @amnesty (Amnesty International), a left-leaning organization, has revealed that around 100 Hindus were massacred and women and children were forced to convert to Islam by Islamist militants in Myanmar which sparked the expulsion of Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar by the military and Buddhist militants. Yet, the monkey balancing of Amnesty is open for all to see here:

The deafening silence and lack of outrage on the above by the usual suspects here in India were not surprising.

Of late, being ‘nationalists’ or any sort of rebuttal and calling out the hypocrisy against these liberal ideologies are immediately labeled as ‘misogynists’, ‘whataboutery.’ ‘Bhakths’ are pretty much treated as ‘dimwits’, after all, the sense of intellectual entitlement and being important has deep roots in the way they have been nurtured throughout years and any sort of dissent puts them in a very uncomfortable situation.

The ‘liberal’ ecosystem in India is openly communal, bigoted and vile but it’s generally not so apparent as they normally try to win over arguments based on such issues even before having the debate, and they are very good at this. Come 2019, the atmosphere was set to such a tone that this ecosystem will hold back nothing to ensure defeat to Modi, it’s apparent after Karnataka polls and the debates that followed after that. It’s high time everyone sees through the hypocrisy of this ideology and hold them accountable for what they profess.

The time is now.

Time to retrieve the gubernatorial glory of India

Jai prakash Ojha
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Time to retrieve the gubernatorial glory of India

Goa, Manipur, Meghalaya, and Bihar – all these states witnessed how the Governors applied different yardsticks at the behest of Centre to install governments of the choice of ruling party. It is a futile exercise to debate too much over the role of the Governor in the context of Karnataka.

It’s not the first time that controversy has arisen over the decision of the Governor but there are instances galore. Office of the Governor has been misused umpteen times by the Congress, the BJP and even the Third Front Janata parties depending upon their political convenience. It’s time to act, plug the loopholes of the system and not just generate high decibel sound with no light.

The post of Governor is very strategic in a federal system like India as it acts as the eyes and ears of the Centre in states and strengthens national integration in a plural and diverse federation. Article 356 has been imposed more than 120 times in the country to dislodge state governments that have been from the opposition. The Governors have indulged in politics in the states and have often entrenched themselves as rival parallel power centers to the Chief Ministers. But fortunately, since the Supreme Court judgment in the SR Bommai case, the dislodging of state governments on flimsy grounds has become tough. Floor test has become mandatory to test rival claims.

However, when it comes to exercise of appointment of Chief Minister at the time when there is no clear-cut majority to any party, the role of Governor has not covered itself in glory on multiple occasions. So it’s imperative we redeem this post and for this, certain steps need to be taken. Sarkaria Commission and Punchi Commission have examined the role of Governors in the context of Centre-State relations and come up with recommendations quite a few chunks of which are yet to be accepted by the center.

1) Circumscribe the Discretionary powers of the Governor under Article 163 with well-defined norms. Insert a Provision in the constitution as to who needs to be given the first shot at government formation when there is fractured verdict – the largest party, the largest pre-poll alliance or the largest post-poll alliance. Should the Governor be guided by constitutional morality or the stability of the government while taking a decision?

There have been precedents under which the leader of the majority party has been invited to form the Government but then, there are occasions when political expediency outweighs precedents and conventions of democracy. Precedents can’t be expected to continue for eternity until and unless, they are codified as laws.

2) Outlaw post-poll alliances for they are opportunistic and unethical. They tend to subvert popular mandate and engender horse trading.

3) Make changes in the Anti Defection act as per the recommendations of the Constitutional Review Commission namely:

a) Defectors must resign from their seats and contest fresh elections.

b) Defectors should be barred from holding any public office for the remaining tenure of the House or till next elections whichever is earlier.

c) Vote cast by a defector to topple a govt should be invalid.

d) The power to decide on questions of defection and disqualification of membership should be taken away from Speaker and entrusted to Central Election Commission.

4) The health of any institution depends on the quality of individuals who run it. It’s no secret that Governorship has become the retiring ground for party loyalists who are well past their political prime. Governors act on the diktats of their party bosses rather than the Constitution. It’s high time the nation thinks about having nonpolitical persons drawn from Civil society/Bureaucracy/Judiciary/Sports & Culture/Social activism as Governors.

A non elected post should not be given to politicians whether it’s of Governor or Chairman/Member of public corporations and statutory bodies. It is important to check the growth of spoils system in Indian democracy in which public offices are given to loyal party workers even though they may not have the requisite merit to discharge their functions properly. Under this system as was prevalent in the USA in the 18th century, the victorious party took virtually everything leaving nothing for the losing parties. This is simply the antithesis of democracy. The post of Governor should not be converted into a post of the spoils system.

A high powered Committee, comprising PM, Leader of opposition in both houses, speaker and Chief Justice of Supreme Court besides distinguished members of civil society, needs to be constituted to prepare the national panel of eminent nonpolitical persons from which Governors have to be selected.

5) There should be a security of tenure for the Governor. The fate of gubernatorial posts should be tied to the rise and fall of governments at the Centre. After relinquishing the post, there should be a minimum cooling off period of 3 years before he becomes eligible for another public post.

This will inspire public confidence in the institution of Governor. It will also insulate the Governor from unnecessary controversy. It will also thwart any judicial moves to interfere into the executive domain. After all, judiciary only comes into picture when there is an abdication of legislative & executive responsibility resulting into constitutional crisis & discomfort to ordinary citizens.

Dear PM Modi, ‘Vikas’ alone won’t win you 2019.

thebaldindian
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Dear PM Modi, ‘Vikas’ alone won’t win you 2019.

India shining, a significant yet failed political marketing campaign during the run-up to the 2004 Lok Sabha elections spearheaded by the dynamic late BJP leader Pramod Mahajan is a fine example of what happens when you try to prescribe the antibiotic of ‘Vikas’ to every problem facing India. L.K. Advani, the then Deputy PM, described the ‘India shining’ campaign as “valid,” but “inappropriate for our election campaign… By making them verbal icons of our election campaign, we gave our political opponents an opportunity to highlight other aspects of India’s contemporary reality… which questioned our claim.”

The prescription of ‘Vikas’ kind of, worked in 2014. The onset of anti-incumbency against Congress and the uncovering of scams after scams inflicted by the Congress only accelerated the need for change. ‘Vikas’ and ‘Jobs’ in this case. Only this time, the resistance to this drug has set in, both in the opposition and the core voters alike.

Making no mistake, PM Modi has brought in some monumental changes in the way politics shapes governance. He has delivered wonderfully on domains like security, social welfare, energy and infrastructure and foreign policy. Let us take the ‘Ujjwala yojana’ for example. A social transformation is clearly visible. This scheme has transformed lives in rural India. In fact, after the disastrous scam ridden period of INC, a full term without any major scams in itself is a big achievement. A big thumbs up to Modi on that.

But, when it comes to the concern of the core voters, PM Modi has failed miserably. The demands of whom are not unreasonable, to say the least, most of which were part of BJP’s manifesto during 2014, yet not even a single issue relating to Core1 have been taken up by this government even after completing 4 years in power.

Let us take two main issues which were prominently mentioned in their 2014 manifesto. Ram Mandir and Uniform Civil code. Ram Mandir has been a flashpoint in Hindutva politics and has been exploited politically by parties, mainly BJP. Yet, we haven’t seen any resolve on BJP’s part to build a Ram Mandir anytime soon. It has been a position of the party that the matter is sub-judice and the govt can’t do much until the matter is before SC. In such a case, it would be fair on BJP’s part to eliminate the Ram Mandir issue from its manifesto altogether if it can’t do anything about it and the court has to decide on it. Any credible effort so far is by Subramanyam Swamy in this matter.

Uniform Civil Code is one more such issue where BJP and PM Modi are displaying the ostrich syndrome. It comes without saying that the Uniform Civil Code is a complex issue in a multi-faith country like India. Yet, it doesn’t negate the importance of bringing such law where non-implementation would be in direct violation of article 44 of our constitution. The only effort made by this government in this matter so far is by ‘asking’ the law commission to look into this matter. It is only in the early stages in this matter, but the persuasive intent of this govt is clearly missing.

There are a host of other issues concerning the core voters like the abrogation of Article 370, freeing of Hindu temples from govt control, repealing Right to education (RTE), population control act and so on. RTE, for example, is a very discriminatory legislation where the only majority owned institutions are subject to this. An epidemic of the closure of schools has followed ever since this law has been enacted.

Read: RTE leading to the closure of low budget private schools

Read: RTE nearing 5 years, 1 lakh schools shut down across India: national forum

 

The below tweet clearly explains the discriminatory nature of RTE on majority ‘Hindu’ owned institutions.

The least expected from this government is including minority-owned institutions without discrimination on the religious basis under RTE, but no intent has been seen so far.

If anything that can be learned from the recent Karnataka polls is those core ideological policies pays a good dividend. The Congress party never abandoned it’s minority appeasement and has reaped handsomely with minority votes in the Karnataka polls. Same goes with BJP where the coastal Karnataka has rewarded BJP where issues were mainly ideological. Muslims didn’t vote the ‘Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas’ ideology even though PM Modi is going out of his way, even at the expense of alienation of core ideological voters to appease minorities.

Read: 62% increase in funding for minority affairs in the union budget

With other factors weighing in this time where government claims can be contested, such as job creation, demonetization, ease of doing business, manufacturing (Make in India) etc, it would be a very challenging task for Modi to contest this election on the same planks as 2014. And in such a situation, abandoning core ideologies and voters is definitely not the way to go.

Poll demographical statistics are ruthless, all it takes is a chunk of disappointed ideological voters to stay at home on polling day and the hoopla around ‘Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas’ would go for a toss. We exactly have a year to go for the 2019 polls and a lot can be done in this time concerning core voters. All it needs is a sure shot intent and not just lip service to keep the ideological pot boiling. The time is now.

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