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US – China trade war- Is there more to it than trade?

Naagesh Padmanaban
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US – China trade war- Is there more to it than trade?

The rising trade tensions between the US and its major trading partners, particularly China and European Union have been making news for some time now. It may be recalled that the US imposed tariff on imports of Chinese goods worth $200 billion and had also threatened to impose tariffs on cars imported from EU.

But the European Commission led by Jean-Claude Juncker quickly visited Washington DC and appears to have successfully negotiated and resolved the trade issues, at least for now. The EU plans to buy more US liquefied natural gas (LNG) and soybeans and has agreed to work with the US “toward zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers, and zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods”. Trump seems to have won hands down in the trade frictions with the EU.

But the trade war with China, on the other hand, seems to be following a different course with no resolution yet in sight. China too had imposed retaliatory sanctions on goods imported from the US. The US has further accused China of manipulating its currency and is now considering additional tariffs worth $500 billion.

The consequences of this internecine tension could be severe and reverberate throughout the world. The IMF has warned that the current trade war could slow down world economic growth by 0.5% or cost the world $430 billion by 2020. In its World Economic Outlook Update published in July 2018 IMF has warned that the global expansion that was witnessed over the last two years has plateaued and has become less balanced. It projects global growth to stay at 3.9% over the next two years. Translation – any trade tensions, particularly among key economies at this juncture may be injurious to all.

While the specter of a full blown trade war is never benign, a close examination of US-China trade data that is publicly available, courtesy Dept. of Commerce, Census Bureau is indeed revealing. Data for the last eight years (i.e. 2010 through 2018 May) shows US exports to China has been consistent at just over a US$100 billion. On the other hand, imports from China have steadily grown from US$ 365 billion in 2010 to US$505 billion in 2017. Imports for 2018 will probably be at the same level as 2017. Please see chart.

US imports are almost four times its exports to China thus giving rise to a yawning trade deficit that is undesirable for any county, and most certainly for the US. But President Trump, by imposing high tariffs, may have converted this liability into a powerful weapon. Give its four to one advantage, China is four times more vulnerable, in dollar terms, than the US. The current impact on US farm sector by Chinese tariffs has been stemmed by a $12 Billion federal subsidy announced by the department of agriculture. Hence, any retaliation– both current and proposed- from China will have minimal effect on the US. Trump seems to have the upper hand with China.

One of the key reasons for the imposition of additional tariffs on China – at least the stated objective of Trump – was bringing jobs, particularly manufacturing jobs, back to the US. On this count, however, Trump may have miscalculated. America must wake up to the reality that manufacturing jobs that were squirreled away to China over the decades will never come back.

The fact is that the US is a high cost economy and the final landed cost of manufacture is very high. Secondly the strong US dollar does not help either. Bringing back manufacturing jobs will only price its products out in a fiercely competitive export market. Most manufacturers may not take the bait.

The US government fully understands this. Consequently, over the decades, it has successfully encouraged the migration of the economy to a trade and economic culture that is largely dependent and sustained by innovations and cutting edge technologies. This has helped in the creation of new markets and orient them to where the US will continue to enjoy obvious advantages and hence dominate.

China too understands the nuances of this game and has been in an extraordinary hurry to acquire new technologies at any cost. Hence it is no surprise that China has been consistently accused, over the decades, of industrial espionage and theft of intellectual property (IP) by many countries including the US. It is no surprise that under the given circumstances, President Trump was left with limited options in dealing with an aggressive trading partner like China.

China has not played a good citizen of the world. At every opportunity, it has seized its neighbor’s land in its infamous ‘salami slicing’ strategy to fulfill its expansionists ideology. It has shown no respect for international law – be it the annexation of Tibet or in the blatant militarization of the Spratly Islands in South China Sea, despite the International Court of Justice (ICJ) verdict against it.

If today China has a negative residue of international goodwill, it has only itself to blame. Its emergence as a big economy and world player has not been peaceful.

The fact that China has used the BRICS forum to speak out for “free trade” only underscores its desperation. Further, recent reports have indicated that behind its brave façade of resisting US tariffs, China is deeply worried about the potential for many of its companies to file for bankruptcies.

It is indeed impossible to guess as to what is on President Trump’s mind in dealing with China. Is he playing hard ball to get China to the negotiating table for a better trade deal? Or is the US planning to bring China on its knees without firing a shot, given China’s flagrant violation of international law in the South China Sea? Or is it Trump’s larger game plan to cut unfriendly nations to size, given his experience in winning over North Korea without firing a shot.

Either way you look at it, China seems to be the obvious loser. It is only a matter of time before China will get to the negotiating table to work out a “reasonable agreement” very much in line with the EU example. Before long, normal trade will resume, albeit under circumstances that are lot more favorable to the US.

Now the Aryan Dravidian divide to defeat BJP in 2019?

Krishna Baalu Iyer
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Now the Aryan Dravidian divide to defeat BJP in 2019?

The lofty ideals of ‘unity in diversity’ as cherished in our constitution were in fact pledged for the entire diversity of India. This axiom was neither reserved for one particular region of India, nor it is meant to play politics with it.

Regardless, today, the liberals have taken this paradigm to a distasteful direction to fit their own agenda, in order to overcome the ‘nationalism’ as nationalism is not in their blood or thoughts for the ‘Tukde Tukde gang’. This disloyal approach of the liberals would cause serious division in our society and may lead to disorder soon if left unchecked and unchallenged.

Off late, the liberals are seriously into the game of dividing India into Aryan and Dravidian sects with utmost audacity. The liberals efforts to divide our own people would even shame the British. They are trigger happy now, with their newfound, Neo-Ambedkarism, which is, contrary to the popular belief of its non-violent doctrine, is today rioting on the streets undisputed and unchallenged. The liberal’s had no other option, but to buttress this new found violence perpetrated by the newly christened section of the society i.e ‘marginalised section’ under many “excuses”. The bloody-protests that were masterminded by the urban-Naxals, and witnessed in BJP Ruling states in January this year, was accepted and legitimised by the liberals without contempt. And they conveniently labelled it as ‘struggle’.

Now there exist two kinds of ‘malice’ and two kinds of solidarity efforts to counter them. Whenever the right-wing questions the increasing animosity of the religious minorities towards the nation and their fellow majority Hindus, it is dubbed as ‘hate’. Whenever the right-wing rightly questions the hypocrisy and bias of the Liberals on issues of sensitive religious beliefs, it is again dubbed as ‘hate’.

So, the hatred of Right-wing groups and Hindus by our mainstream media is going to stay for some more years in our system, intensifying the Indian polity and Indian community for good or bad. It could be hate of Hindus, hate of Muslims or hate of Aryans/Dravidians. Because as of now, there are no signs of the Right-wing organisations consolidating themselves to resonate nationalism through mainstream media and till then we have to hear and bear the JNU saga for some more time.

In the long passage of human history, we have rightly perceived Aristotle’s logic, scientific thinking and metaphysics. We have rightly perceived the teachings of Vedas, Upanishads and Sad Darsana’s. We have fairly hailed Darwin’s evolution theory, acclaimed Karl Marx Social justice and rational thinking but eventually ended up on the laps of religious bigotry. The 21st Century man, with all his 3000 yrs of wisdom, abruptly fell at the feet of bigotry of Islam. Today thousands of years of acquired wisdom has become redundant and forsaken. The Islam-apology has been rising almost in all continents as a barrier to protect the bigotry of Islam. The global Secular evangelists have further this cause so severely, now the Islam apology’ has become a state obligation, and any criticism of it is dubbed as ‘hate’. So, the ‘hate’ marvel has imposed a one-way entry rule, and such a traffic regulation though illegal under the constitution was legitimised by the Islamic apologist liberals in India very mindfully.

In the post-Independent India, nationalism was more severely stalked by the liberals and Leftist bigots under the apology of restraining the ‘Hindutva’ tsunami. However, this sham of liberals has reached an alarming stage now. The liberals have now switched over to Aryan-Dravidian divide, which they think is the most effective tool to contain Hindutva nationalists in today’s given political environment. Having tried and failed with ‘hate’ and ‘Intolerance’ smear campaign against PM Modi, the liberals are now contracting an unusual propaganda of ‘Aryan-Dravidian’ theory to challenge the BJP’s nationalism mantra and it’s grand plans to make inroads into Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. It may be kept in mind, that the very proponents of ‘Aryan Invasion theory’ are now down with their own admission of its fallacy. Yet, our liberals are still finding some fodder in it to keep feasting on it, to keep the society divided to accomplish their political and religious ends.

The liberal media’s unanimous Jaya Ho’ to the central theme of the movie ‘Kaala’ and their wholehearted worship of the protagonist in black, is part of this break-India game. Let us review this growing defiance against the nation by the so-called ‘marginalised section of India’ and the liberal’s true intentions behind these protests.

The nexus of urban naxals+Insurgent groups+Leftist political parties+left lenient media+Christian Missionaries+Islamic fundamentalist groups+Dravidian outfits has been firmly established to challenge our Constitution and Democracy.

The attack of media on ‘Padmavat’ protest proved the Liberals’ antagonism against ‘upper caste Hindus’

A careful review of the war like situation that was created by the movie Padmavat’ would confirm the fact that the liberals and our MS Media were up in arms against the ‘other castes’ of Hindus. The media was throughout virulent against the ‘other caste’ (meaning the upper caste Hindus). The TV News channels targetted the ‘Rajput’ community and ridiculed them for their protest against Padmavat movie. They then cited the prevalent ‘misogynic’ social system in Rajasthan to counter the Karni Sena’s defence of ‘Rajputana pride’. They then started a counter campaign against the protestors i.e Karni Sena, by highlighting and revealing the remorseful status of ‘woman’ in Rajasthan. This campaign ran for several days and other left lenient news channels too picked up the story and lasted it for several days targeting and ridiculing the ‘Rajput community’ against their protest of ‘Padmavat’ movie. However, their bias was apparently exposed. Their ‘agenda’ driven campaign was finally bared.

If we take up another war like situation that was prevalent in another part of the country, which provided the same opportunity and same fodder to the media to take on the warring community but yet, was deliberately snubbed by the media. Because that ‘community’ was in their protective list. The media was duty bound to protect them. It was the ‘pro-Jallikattu’ protests that took place on January 2017 in Tamil Nadu. This protest was also known as ‘Thai Puratchi’ referring to the most revered month of Tamils. There is a saying in Tamil, ‘Thai pirandaal Vazhi pirakkum’, meaning the beginning of the month ‘Thai ‘ will bring success’. So the pro-Jallikattu protest was in all likeliness a display of solidarity for Tamil culture. It was also openly cited to defend the ‘Jallikattu’ in the Supreme Court against the PETA petition. So, the media resolutely stood in defence of Tamils and Tamil culture then, without posing any uncomfortable questions about it. We Indians are equally proud of Tamil Culture and its cherished History.

But wonder, why the media did not recollect the prevalent ills of Tamil Society like FGM, female infanticide, child marriages etc and felt appropriate to disgrace and disdain the Tamils, on the same logical ‘whataboutery” grounds like they adopted in countering the Rajputs in ‘Padmavat’ movie protests? This was a nasty display of double standards of the liberal media. This again demonstrates the liberal’s outrageous agenda of dividing the Hindu society into:
1) The ‘Dalits, BC, OBC and religious minorities (this group is known as ‘marginalised section of the society) and
2) The Other Castes.

And the notion was that the media should always resist the ‘Other castes of Hindus and keep supporting the Dalits and others, without regards to facts and fairness.

Leftist’s objective is messy

The marginalised section of the society is the grouping of Hindu Dalits and religious minorities, which is seemingly an idiosyncratic union. Yet it is quite a large chunk of the population that constitutes nearly 40 %. This queer combination of Abrahamic religious followers of Indian origin and native Indic people of Hinduism cannot go in tandem. This is indeed an odd alliance from the cultural and religious aspect. The liberal’s view to unite this odd-mixture is highly idiotic, and may only serve an instant interim political gain for the ‘break India forces.

The liberal’s intention is obviously not earnest and a real commitment to their welfare. Their sole aim is to weaken the unity of ‘Hindus’ by setting them against the rest of the Hindus (‘the other castes’).

What would be the Liberal’s game plan once this group is perfectly set against the core Hindus? Are they aiming an armed struggle and to expand the armed Naxal insurgency in a big way to overthrow the largest Democracy in the world? If this is true, then it is highly undesirable and eccentric too. The liberalists are well aware that our country is not only a large democracy but a powerful one with the world’s 4th largest and powerful Army guarding the nation against threats from all directions. Any armed insurgency even if it is designed on a mass scale would be crushed in no time. A judiciously regulated restraint that is what in reality is holding the Government not to set the Indian military in crushing the armed insurgency of the Naxals. Hence Armed insurgency cannot succeed in India under any circumstances, and if the need arises, in no time the Indian Army can wipe out the insurgency.

By now the nation has clearly seized of the evil designs of ‘the anti-development’ riots orchestrated by various Leftist groups in India and in particular in Tamil Nadu. The Christian and Dravidian outfits have joined hands with the national level leftist groups.  Anti Jallikattu protests, the recent anti-Sterlite plant protest in Thoothukudi, anti-Kudamkulam Nuclear plant protests, protests against the international container transhipment terminal, Thoothukudi outer harbour development, the ONGC project at Kathiramangalam and the recent protests against the proposed Chennai-Salem Green Express Highway are all grand designs to destabilise India.

The anti-development groups behind these protests are threatening national unity and security, their methodology in mobilising the protestors is nefarious. These groups are ‘using’ gullible marginalised section of the society as a ‘human shield’ who unfortunately would die in police firings while lining up in front, and their educated elite ‘think tank’ would be hiding behind these innocent people, safeguarding their ‘skin’ and their adorable family.
However such dubious acts are bound to surface one day. This is exactly what happened recently in Thoothukudi, TN, when several fishermen family members of the unfortunate victims of police firing filed a petition before the authorities, pointing their fingers to a group of dubious Lawyers, who pushed them in the violent ring.

Their desperate effort was to portray the Central Government at Delhi, and the Sterlite company, as ‘Aryan archetype ‘perpetrators and the Tamils are the Dravidian archetype victims.

Here, the Aryan-Dravidian dogma is going to be a shot-in-the-arm for the agitating posse in Tamil Nadu. for some time in the coming days. The powerful Chrisitan Missionaries are happily associating with these groups, as such a divide in the Hindu society would only help their ‘conversion business’ to thrive. Above all, the mobilisation of such pro-LTTE groups witnessed in the month of May this year in Tamil Nadu is clear indication of LTTE sympathisers regrouping as 17th May was the remembering day of late LTTE Tiger Velupillai Prabhakaran. Besides a number of Tamil News Channels floated by Christian Missionaries are busy propagating anti-Hindu and anti-BJP hate non-stop. Evangelist Mohan Lazarus is running amok in Tamil Nadu, and spreading ‘hate’ relentlessly and unchecked.

There is a shady connection. Urban Naxals+JNU+Leftis Political Parties+Missionaries+Islamic outfits+Dalits protests+Naxal Insurgency+Dravidian outfits +Islamic terror outfits. This Python’s head is in Tamil Nadu, the tail is in Jammu and Kashmir to be accurate.

The more the ‘Right’ is timid, the more this Python remain active and waiting to swallow this huge nation.

Women and right-wing liberalism

bharatsingh
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Women and right-wing liberalism

That a white president, especially from the Right-wing Conservatives, was going to face scorn from the coloured voters, there was no doubt – the white-cop-black-victim hype and Obama’s questioning of the jury decision (as an elected President, no less) to play to the race gallery, saw to that. There was no doubt either why the hordes of young city women went against him when a largish group of women came out of the woodwork accusing him of sexual misdemeanours, only to vanish after the election campaign.

Trump’s chauvinist statements of decades back when it was normal grooming for young men were over-hyped, even as blatant and legally proved cases of exploitation of women (Bill Clinton) were brushed under the carpet. But it was the concentration of Blacks in ghettos that did Obama in, because even though the majority of the country’s votes were for him, they were concentrated in ghettos; state-wise Trump won. Then followed a bitter, wrathful and often petty Left media campaign against Trump even though a lot of his decisions were just extensions of earlier American policies, including the restrictions on immigrants from countries with a terrorist background (Obama too had laid similar restrictions). No surprise there, for media too have their business to run – they are not philosophers. All’s fair in politics.

But then there were some regressive turns of events – Linda Sarsour, a hijab-wearing Islamist ended up as a leader of sorts for the feminists. Young women, who had been fighting for decades for freedom, ended up celebrating a Hijab day – the very symbol of women’s subservience. This amongst others, continue to surprise bystanders as educated, supposedly modern youth continue to be blind-sided and oppose everything Trump does, ridicule everything his family does, but worse, support regressive causes. So what happened?

Unlike what is generally assumed, Political and Social wings are two different aspects of a democratic society. While the Political spectrum ranges from Left (Communism-Socialism) to Right (Capitalism-Fascism), the Social spectrum ranges from Left (Liberals) to Right (Conservatives). Though it is possible to be a Liberal Capitalist and a Conservative Communist, the overarching terms -Left or Right – often result in groupings of Left-Liberals and Right-Conservatives in common lingo amongst the uninformed.

In the US, the Democrats achieved this alignment through the young women. Liberalism is primarily driven by women in all societies because it is first their independence that is at stake. And where the young women lean, the young men too – it is the law of nature. By building a misogynist narrative around Trump, they ensured that scores of young, working women lean against him. In effect, the Political and Social Lefts were aligned in the US.

One might ask, what has this got to do with India. It has. We have a developing parallel in India. Young, educated women in the urban colleges are increasingly being fed a similar narrative by the leftist media. Well-heeled, English speaking, fashionable young women, especially those who rely on media for their work – actresses, activists, writers – are supporting fake Leftist misinformation narratives out of the need for self-preservation, not ethics. This, coupled with the misinformation spread by certain compromised media, is producing a generation of confused liberals in India. The nation may pay a high cost for this trend if motivated, young, educated women do not dig deeper into political game play and check this dumbing down of the youth. Are there any takers?

Did Anant Kumar Hegde address an empty crowd?

Lakshmisha K S
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Did Anant Kumar Hegde address an empty crowd?

Last Sunday 22nd July, Union minister of state for skill development and entrepreneurship Anant Kumar Hegde was the chief guest for the inauguration of NaMo Bharath organization in Davanagere. Anant Kumar Hegde as befits the occasion addressed the crowd of volunteers and the general public. However, even before the event had started, regional mainstream media started peddling fake news to propagate their preconceived agenda.

As one of the founding members of NaMo Bharath, this is a first-hand account of the turn of events.  NaMo Bharath is newly formed organization of volunteers who aim to work in support of Narendra Modi in Karnataka. The aim is to mobilize volunteers across Karnataka in order to help Modi win 28/28 seats in Karnataka thus contributing to BJP’s Mission 365+. It is an independent and self-funded organization comprising mostly of young professionals and students.

Anant Kumar Hegde travelled from New Delhi to Davanagere on the day of the event. He was expected to reach Davanagere a few hours before the event, visit the IB (Inspection Bungalow) to freshen up and head for the event.

However, a few alleged members of DSS (Dalit Shoshit Samaj Sangharsh Samiti) were planning to ambush the minister at the IB to protest against his earlier remark on changing the constitution. They were thus hiding inside few rooms in the upper flow. Luckily the police found something suspicious and upon checking the rooms identified the  protesters, arrested them and took them away from the premise. All of this took place luckily before the minister reached Davanagere.

The most surprising aspect was that the media immediately arrived at the scene as soon as the arrest was taking place. The news was flashed in many regional channels that there was serious protests against Anant Kumar Hegde. Even though the true scale of this was small, given that there were only 4-5 protesters.  Heavy police deployment was stated as a reason to claim that the situation was tense.

Post this, the minister arrived, freshened up and left for the venue. This is when the media started their  propaganda. They started claiming due to the protests and lack of interest, the response for the event was tepid. That Anant Kumar Hegde addressed empty chair with only half of the Auditorium being filled. Of the Auditorium capacity of 1,000 that there were less than 400 members of audience.

Exhibit 1: Public TV (One of the leading Kannada news channel).  Check their article (a summary of their TV report) on the event here.  The article is in Kannada. The translation is as follows

Header: Empty chairs everywhere

Body: The expectation was for a crowd of 1,000 but only half the seats were filled. There were more than 500 police personnel deployed. 

The implication is that there were more police than the no of people in audience and that the expectations that Anant Kumar Hegde will pull in a large crowd turned out to be false.

In the next section they claim that there were 20 protesters who were arrested protesting against Anant Kumar Hegde. Again there is another pic with empty seats.

 

Exhibit 2: Vijayawani (Leading Kannada News paper) published the following article. The article is in Kannada and makes the same two claims. The headline claims that the minister was left uncomfortable because

  • Half the Auditorium was empty with tepid crowd response
  • There was a big protest with around 20 people. This created an embarrassment for the minister.

But is this the realty?? What is the truth then??

1.  Was the Auditorium empty, the crowd response tepid??

Let the following pictures from the event speak for themselves.

The pics have been selected so as to present a view from every possible angle in the auditorium. As you can see the response was tremendous. The estimated crowd was near 1500+ and not the less than 500 reported by the media.

If one is smart and has a keen eye, you can see how was the media able to twist the facts in the case. Look at the pics circulated by the media and look at the pics during the minister’s speech. You can clearly make out that the media picks were taken much before the event started. It is only surprising why media didn’t turn up the previous day itself and report that the entire auditorium was empty!!. Alas if only if they were smarter.

2. Was there widespread protest against Anant Kumar Hegde??

As discussed earlier, there were 4-6 protesters in the IB. All of them were arrested 30-40 minutes before the minister even reached Davanagere.

Do you see 20 protesters here?? In reality, there are more police personnel than the protesters! In fact, there were more media personnel hoping for an incident then there were protesters.  The minister was hardly even aware of the protest let alone be perturbed by it.

This incident only highlights that even regional media have learnt the tricks of the trade from their English mainstream counterparts. They are no less driven by the need to propagate one’s agenda subsuming facts and reality. It is a sad state of affairs which highlights the rotten and deprived state of the Indian media industry.

PS: If one wants to really check the reality, just listen to Anant Kumar Hegde speaking and the audience response for the same.

Zinedine Zidane and the hypocrisy of media

Vijaya Dar
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Zinedine Zidane and the hypocrisy of media

Now that the 2018 World Cup has concluded without any major controversy that the international media would have been salivating about, the victory of France in the finals has been turned into a paean for multi-culturalism, the homogenising property of immigration, etc. etc. Our own media-buffoon, Rajdeep Sardesai, lost no time in reminding Indians about the lack of Dalits in the Indian cricket team.

That the media can go to great and absurd lengths in the pursuit of circulation numbers or TRPs to boost the bottom line, is best illustrated by The Times of London, in what is now known as the Zinedine Zidane moment of madness. Twelve years later, let us recap the incident.

The billions of viewers who saw the incident “live” could not believe that an internationally renowned and respected player, probably the greatest footballer of his generation, and a contender for the title of the greatest ever, would go out from the scene in such ignominy. There were hardly minutes to go before the final whistle and the prospect of a penalty shoot-out looked unavoidable. Yet why would a seasoned and experienced campaigner like Zidane lose his head in a moment of madness and do something that would certainly mean an immediate expulsion for him and possible defeat for his team? That moment of madness not only deprived him of a farewell befitting a king, but also robbed his country of a possible second World Cup.

The provocation provided by Marco Materazzi must have been so extreme that a normally cool and collected Zidane forgot everything for that moment and committed the cardinal error of butting his tormentor in the chest in full public view. Zidane must have known that his act would invite immediate retribution and, of course, the referee had no other choice but to send him off. France had to play the rest of the match with only ten players and when the time came for the penalty shoot-out, their captain and the most experienced player could not participate in the same. Italy won the shoot-out 5-3, and France lost the FIFA cup. Almost like Herschelle Gibbs dropping Steve Waugh in a World Cup Cricket Match which South Africa looked all set to win!

It was obvious to almost all the viewers that Materazzi must have said something extremely vicious to draw such a reaction from Zidane. We had made our own guesses, and although I did suspect that Materazzi must have made a racial comment, we felt that the matter had been laid to rest with the conclusion of the match. The matter should have been buried the moment Zidane accepted that he had behaved aberrant and refused to divulge what Materazzi had said. That the French captain thought it best to leave the stage without any excuses shows how larger than life he really is. But obviously, he had not reckoned to what lengths the media could go in search of a juicy story.

That it is a “respected and non-tabloid” newspaper like the Times of London that engaged the services of lip-readers and interpreters to read the lips of Materazzi, shows how the media contrives to keep the fires of a controversy burning. For them it is best if the story develops into a race riot resulting in a few bomb-blasts, shootings, lynchings, and other acts of mayhem so that they can keep the pot boiling and the sheets rolling off the presses. Screaming TV anchors raise the decibel levels to pitches that can burst one’s eardrums. Matters that have only momentary significance are escalated into major controversies, taken out of the hands of the principal characters, and then completely blown out of proportion. Vested interests take over and a whole new spin is put on the story. The media thrives in such situations. When the fires go beyond control, the same media writes pompous and lofty editorials advising all and sundry on how the matter should have been handled.

In the quest for higher circulation and profits the media has forgotten that one of its responsibilities is to promote peace and harmony, and to refrain from publishing any news that could be a potential threat to public peace. Not only had The Times forgotten it, but it had gone out of its way to do the reverse. This dangerous trend cannot be controlled by legislation; and censorship is definitely not the answer. The media has to define its own role in more responsible terms, and exercise self-restraint. The pursuit of profits alone is a sure recipe for disaster for all nations.

Zinedine Zidane paid for his moment of madness, but he has come out of the entire sordid episode as a true hero. By awarding him the Golden Ball FIFA honoured itself. The entire Italian team and especially Marco Materazzi should have made a public apology to the greatest footballer of those times. Materazzi made nonsense of the oath that all the teams were taking before each match about racial equality. If FIFA and other international sports bodies are serious about the ceremony of oaths then it is incumbent upon them to ensure that all the members respect it. It must also restrain the media from investigating matters that have been resolved on the ground and evolve a code of conduct for the press and the electronic media.

This is how Sonia Gandhi led Congress preparing for the 2019 elections

jmetamedia
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This is how Sonia Gandhi led Congress preparing for the 2019 elections

General Elections for the 17th Lok Sabha are fast approaching. General elections will coincide with assembly elections in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Arunachal Pradesh. Before that we will have elections to four state assemblies: Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram. Some more states like Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Jammu and Kashmir may join the list.

In all we will have a crucial General Election and elections to at least 8 assemblies.

By now Right Wingers have well realized the importance of a majority in Rajya Sabha which is directly proportional to majorities in various state assemblies. Hence victory in these assemblies along with a thumping majority in Lok Sabha is very crucial for Modi and India alike.

Some say the whole Indian Civilization depends on Modi’s victory in these polls.

Supremo’s many Brahmhastras: She has at least 12-15 Brahmhastra’s to destroy Modi’s vote bank across multiple levels.

Some Brahmhastra’s though difficult, are still in the realm of possibility, and she will readily adopt most of them.

  1. Hoodwink Indian Muslims and Christians by scaring the living daylights out of them and make them believe that a Modi win 2019 will be catastrophic. Opposition plans to force at least 95% of minorities to vote against Modi, that too for a single non-BJP candidate. She is also vigorously campaigning to eradicate split in anti Modi minority votes.
  2. Use her decades old covert global connections with media organizations, judiciary, intellectuals, artists, NGO’s and minority organizations to create an anti-Modi and anti-India narrative. She does not care if India’s image takes a deadly beating.
  3. Milk the resentment among India’s business community on Modi’s GST, strict Tax compliance, anti-corruption drive etc. to force them to support her.
  4. Wean away smaller NDA parties like Apna Dal in UP, Kushwaha’s in Bihar, IPFT in Tripura, AGP in Assam etc.
  5. Manufacture fake corruption charges against Modi sarkar just before elections and use media pidis to create a vicious anti Modi narrative.
  6. Women across almost all communities are some of the strongest supporters of PM Modi. Opposition is cherry picking sexual violence against women to dent his support base. They successfully did so in the Khatua rape and murder case.
  7. Create fake Hindutva accounts to force Modi loving Hindu Right wingers to vote NOTA. These fake Hindutva accounts preach the doctrine “Modi is Anti-Hindu”. Such mostly fake Hindutva accounts viciously attack Modi and BJP from the Right wing perspective. Even such mundane things like wishing Eid Mubarak in Urdu can make Modi Anti-Hindu. Some other narratives of these fake Hindutva accounts are:
  8. Modi is anti-Hindu as article 370 is continuing and Rohingyas still live in Jammu.
    Modi is pro Muslim hence he immorally transferred Lucknow passport officer Viksas Mishra.
    Modi has schemes exclusively for Minorities. BJP governments hate Hindus as they continue the state control of Hindu temples.
    Modi wants Hindus to be illiterate as he approves Hindu injustices in the RTE act.
    Lack of progress on Ram Mandir means Modi hates Ram.
    Modi means more governance hence he is making government control even private life.
    Ganga is still a gutter.
    Modi imposes Hindi against the wishes of Assameese Hindus, Tamil Hindus, Kannada Hindus, and Bengali Hindus etc.
  9. Create a false narrative with fake polls from reputed organizations, to show Modi losing support. These polls will initially show a BJP defeat, allowing her to set the agenda and confuse the voter. As and when it becomes certain Modi will win, these polls will be modified to reflect a more probable outcome. We have seen this in Gujarat and Karnataka.
  10. To speak as though opposition will definitely form government in 2019. They speak like “When our government will come in 2019…”, “During our next government we will…” “Our 2019 government will be the best…”
  11. Work with Russia, Saudi Arabia and USA to force them to raise Crude prices around election time. All the three can be manipulated to some extent using her decades old connections. If a major geopolitical event (Iran-Gulf war and closure of gulf of hamruz) forces global Crude prices to shoot, then it’s a great bonanza for her.
  12. China, a communist dictator, is a known offender when it comes to illegal interference’s in democratic polls of other nations. Right under India’s very nose Maldives is fast becoming a Chinese client state while Prachanda and his comrades handed Nepal on a platter to China. China bankrolled political campaigns of many Australian Politicos. That’s right Australia, an advanced developed democracy could do nothing before the menacing Chinese dragon. In such a scenario can anyone vouch that the Opposition Supremo will not take Chinese help? Assuming that Pakistan’s anti India activities will be timed to help her, there will be at least two nations trying to undermine Modi and influence the polls.
  13. She will hope and pray that the rains fail this year. As of July 20 2018, Uttar Pradesh (70 NDA seats in the current Lok Sabha) badly needs rains. Thankfully this scenario is in Mother Nature’s hands. Dear Right Wing theists please do pray for good rains across India!

Supremo’s Caste Brahmhastras:

Opposition Supremo will go full throttle on Modi using multiple insidious Brahmhastras but her main one will be caste.

  1. Vicious physical and verbal attacks based on Caste, Community, Region or Language is inhuman and anti-national.
  2. Caste should eventually phase out.
  3. Hindu society should have no birth based discrimination what so ever.

Sadly these are Utopian concepts that may not fructify before 2019.

The most practical thing is to prevent Opposition and her corrupt minions to take advantage of Hinduism’s Caste divisions. As Right Wingers it is imperative to foil Opposition Supremo’s plans as per ones limits.  It is also imperative to never surrender even an inch of space to her. Here comes the importance for Right Wingers to say mum’s the word when it comes to Caste.

Caste Brahmhastra’s:

Splitting Dalits from Hindu society: This is the most common caste Brahmhastra for the Opposition Supremo.

One of the defining factors of Modi’s post 2014 victory march is the dedicated and continued support of many Hindu Dalit sub castes. This has baffled and disappointed Supremo no end. She is trying her best to destroy BJP’s hard earned Dalit support, by using all her global connections to rile up Dalits.

Many Dalit organizations have a long history of covert relationship with her. Some even act as fronts for her. They are expected to create huge hungama and antagonize Modi voting Dalits before elections.

Caste Brahmhastra’s: Dividing Hindus by weaning upper castes and non-OBC agrarian castes from BJP. Many caste/communities/demographics are being misguided to violence by Opposition and her minions.

The ultimate aim of all her cancerous caste machinations is not restricted to the victory of her candidate, but in the victory of any rabidly anti-BJP candidate. This prevents the formation of an NDA coalition in case BJP does not get a majority, as it happened in Karnataka.

  1. The LS seats in the brackets are the probable seats that can be affected by Opposition’s caste based divisive politics. Some of the seat numbers may interpolate, like in Rajasthan where she is playing multiple caste politics. Some of her apparent caste machinations are as follows:
  2. She is riling up Jats in Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Delhi and Western UP. (10+10+13+7+~12=54 LS Seats). Please note the blue eyed boy of online right wingers, ex Indian Army Caption and current Punjab CM Maharaja Amrinder Singh, is a big leader of the All India Jat Mahasabha.
  3. In Rajasthan (25 Raj LS seats) she is riling up the some additional castes against Modi:
    Rajput’s via Karni sena and Padmavat protest. Rajput’s voted against BJP in Ajmer Lok Sabha bye election
    Gujjar’s via SC quota protests.
    Brahmins via tactical allotment of tickets as seen in Alwar Lok Sabha bye election.
  4. She is riling up Marathas in Maharashtra via Maratha OBC quota protests and her fr-enemy the Old Fox of Maratha Politics. (~48 LS seats)
  5. She is riling up Patels in Gujarat via Patel OBC quota protests. (~20 out of 26 Guj LS seats)
  6. She is riling up Kapu’s in Andhra Pradesh via OBC quota protests. Megastar Chiranjeevi is also with her. His brother Pawan Kalyan is leading a rival, yet popular political movement called Jana Sena in AP. (~12 out of 25 LS seats)
    Even in 2018 Nair’s in Kerala are a solid Congress voting block. (~12 out of 20 Ker LS seats)
  7. Lingayats in Karnataka are being promised a separate religion. She will do all her best to divide this solid BJP vote bank (~14 out of total 28 Kar LS seats).
  8. Assorted Hindu Assameese communities are being cruelly hoodwinked to oppose Indian Citizenship to Hindu Bengalis refugees of 1971 war. Opposition Supremo’s minions gave many anti-Hindi and anti-Bengali Hindu refugee speeches. Never mind that the real threat to Assam is the demographic tsunami of recent Bangladeshi illegals.(~14 seats)
  9. AAP with its Bania leadership is leading a silent campaign to wean Bania’s from BJP. Kejriwal, Somnath Bharathi, Prashant Kishore, two Rajya Sabha members of AAP etc. are from the same business community. (7 Delhi LS Seats + 30-32 urban seats in north = 37-39 LS seats).
  10. Opposition has her eyes set even on Brahmins. In assorted seats across India she is fielding Brahmin candidates. (Alwar LS bye election 2018/Phulpur LS bye election 2018). She might not win the seat, but can very well divide BJP vote and lead to its defeat. (~ 30 urban LS seats across India)
  11. The Bengali bhadralok is being brainwashed to hate Modi on the basis that he represents the Hindi heartland. So called Bengali intellectuals are the vanguards of this poisonous anti-Hindi campaign. (48 LS seats )
  12. Ever since Jayalalithaa’s demise it appears as though all the anti-national forces have got a new lease of life in Tamil Nadu which is on boil almost on a monthly basis. Sane Tamil voices are being extinguished with clinical precision.
  13. During the violent Jallikattu protests of 2017 Modi was blamed even though he had nothing to do with its ban. In fact Jallikattu was banned by Opposition Supremo backed NGO’s and a pliant Judiciary.Such is the anti-Modi paranoia that Tamil organizations are opposing a super-fast multi lane highway construction and AIIMS in Madurai, just because it is Modi’s idea. (39 LS seats)

Based on these insidious Brahmhastra’s, Opposition plans are being carefully worked out in 190-290 Lok Sabha seats.

All forms of Media (online, international, national and vernacular) are expected to flame these divisive fires with incendiary coverage. Indian Express, India Today, the Hindu, National Herald, Sakaal, Malayalamanorama, ABP Newspaper etc are known Opposition chamchas. Online media portals such as Huffingtonpost, Scroll, dailyO, Cobrapost etc can be expected to bring out click bait news items that will further divide the society. Racist rags such as BBC, NYT, Economist, AFP, AP, Washington post and Reuters are Opposition’s trusted global partners in these crimes.

With all these Brahmhastras on Modi’s support base, Right Wingers’ comments and actions on caste should not become another anti-Modi weapon for the Opposition Supremo! Please remember Delhi and Bihar. Modi supporters should be careful before commenting on, South-North, Northeast, Hindi-Non Hindi, Dalits, Brahmins, Jats, Rajput’s, Tribal’s, OBC’s, Reservation, Caste superiority etc.

Everyone loves one’s caste, community, language and region. So please do not pass any comments (esp. online since they stay forever) on another caste or community (This is not a suggestion to demean other religions).

Remember 2015 when:

  1. Modi’s comment on Kejriwal’s Gotra was used to flame anti Modi views among Delhi’s business community.
  2. RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat’s comments on reservation were viciously used to destroy Modi’s OBC and Dalit support base.

This led to humiliating losses in Delhi and Bihar. They have been used in the past and can be used in the future to divide Modi’s base.

Dear right wingers (both offline and online) “mum’s the word when it comes to Caste”!

If there is a caste question or an itch to comment on caste, keep in mind Delhi-Bihar losses and then pretty please with butter on top just remember “No Comments!”

Trust Modi and Amit Shah to take it from there.

How Modi’s politics is different than that of his predecessors

profalokkumar
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How Modi’s politics is different than that of his predecessors

Pt. Deendayal Upadhyay, founder of JanSangh, conceptualised politics as a means for upliftment of “last man standing in the line”. First Chancellor of Germany, Otto Von Bismarck once said “Politics is the art of the possible”. Indian politics took this a little too seriously and witnessed numerous experiments; many of them were unethical, unnatural and unjust. To rule became the rule of politics come what may. Realising that “electoral outcomes are significantly affected by emotional outbursts”, politics in India resorted to avoidable and trivial political issues leaving people to bear the brunt. Political rhetoric as “Gareebee Hatao” (Eradicate Poverty) stayed at the core with hardly any achievement for over 40 years. The net outcome was governance in disarray leading to disappointed, disgruntled and dismayed society with buried hope. The prevailing political practice of trivialism was challenged by PM Narendra Modi and attempted to rechristen politics as a tool of development, for development and by development.

Creation of “welfare state”, a term popularised by William Temple, in which the state plays a pivotal role in the protection and promotion of the economic and social well-being of it’s people, has been the guiding principle for Indian democratic establishment post independence. The concept of “welfare state” has been based on the principles of equality of opportunity, equitable distribution of wealth and public responsibility for those who have not been able to ensure minimal provisions for a decent life. Sociologist T H Marshall described a modern welfare state to be a combination of democracy, welfare and capitalism.

Pt Nehru’s model of development was focused more on distribution than on creation, be it physical or social infrastructure. This model, when compared with the developmental models of other south Asian countries like Indonesia, South Korea and Malaysia who shared their independence time horizon with India, was contested by many economists. The principal point of contention was that India invested more on establishing heavy industries terming them as “modern temples”. These later fell victim of corruption, politicisation and red-tapism leading to liability creation. On the other hand, these south Asian countries invested more on building physical infrastructure and facilitated upscaling of industrial activities through private capital. This institutional support system became reason for sustained economic growth even acted for hedging during contingencies.

Contemporary Indian politics has been requiring to reintroduce development as the focal driving point for governance aimed at creating a positive change in the life of common man. Modi model of development has been guided by creation, distribution and inclusion of all which comprehensively addresses the socio-economic dimensions of human life of the country. It not only aims at excelling quantitatively on economic indicators but also strives for creation of an ecosystem that brings in perceptual qualitative change in the quality of living.

Come 2014, a government was formed with full majority after 30 years by focusing the campaign around development. In a span of four years of its term, the government has been able to sustain relatively higher economic growth of 7.2% in 2014-15, 7.6% in 2015-16. Withstanding adverse global parameters, India could achieve 6.75% in 2017-18 and is slated to achieve 7.5% for 2018-19. Many of the spending planned by the government especially in the infrastructure sector is going to provide impetus to the economic growth in the times to come. To illustrate, Indian Railways has planned an investment of 8.5 lakh crores in a period of 5 years, Highways and ports over 10 lakh crores and telecommunication over 4 lakh crores to augment the physical infrastructure.

Similarly, huge spending is being carried out in petroleum, electricity, coal, fertiliser etc to augment the rate of growth. Introduction of major policy reforms, corruption free transparent auction of natural resources etc are providing further fillip to the supply of additional monetary resource to the national exchequer thereby transforming the growth to development. To further the impact, the government has also been able to contain inflation keeping it below the growth rate thereby creating a net positive impact on to the economy. The average inflation also has been at rock bottom level i.e. at 3.3% in 2018. The fiscal deficit has consistently been within targets through fiscal prudent measures leading to more money available for development.

Modi government has been empathetic enough to address the issues effecting the life of the “last man standing in the line”. In its bid to exhibit commitment to the well being of marginalised, over 9 crore youths have been provided mudra loans for entrepreneurship promotion, over 25 crore bank accounts have been opened as part of the biggest global financial inclusion drive ever, over 3 crores LPG gas connection already distributed, almost all the villages have been electrified with free electricity connections to 397.45 lakh BPL rural households and over 6 crore toilets majorly in rural areas have been built increasing the rural sanitation coverage to over 60% from 38% in 2012. The governance thus has been working to bring the “last man standing in the line” at the core of its policies.

“Politics of economic development” i.e. policies that leads to sustained increase in per-capita income in excess to price level changes with benefits being passed on to the “last man standing in the line”, can prove to be prudently purposeful if it achieves the goals of politics as well. Politics of development aimed at protection and promotion of the economic and social well-being of common citizen of the country is a new kind of politics. This truly aims at creation of a welfare state where the “last man standing in the line” is the real beneficiary of the governance. Sustained success of the politics of economic development envisaged by Prime Minister Modi appears to be for the greater good of the country and its people. This would not just bolster image of the politics as a function but also serve the very purpose of politics in the most prudent and profound manner. The prudence of such form of politics remains to be seen in the times to come. Hope this agenda stays for a better, brighter and prosper India.

Peace on the roads: An open letter to Nitin Gadkari

wishwalker
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Peace on the roads: An open letter to Nitin Gadkari

This is an Open Letter to our Road and Transport Minister, Shri Nitin Gadkari ji.

There is one very important aspect of our daily lives in India, which I think no one is paying attention to in a serious way. This is regarding the traffic situation in the country, and the loss of life, inconvenience, and the overall chaos that it brings into the lives of a common Indian everyday of his/her life, no matter the rich or the poor.

It is also one of the prime causes of noise pollution in the country, and specially the constant honking in India, due to lack of following of rules has made life very stressed and discomforting in the country. There are places in India where this is even making people sleep deprived.

We are going to amend the Motor Vehicles Act, as reported here. This is all good, but I don’t think that just increasing some fines, and making some superficial changes will solve this problem. The problem is huge, and it needs a national movement of it’s own, if India needs to move towards a developed country status. I would suggest a brief suggestion, which should discussed in depth by experts.

1. We should start with some select cities to make big changes in how traffic moves in them.
2. We should frame proper road rules, and paint our roads with proper lanes and road signage.
3. This should be augmented with speed cameras, red light cameras in use all over the world in many countries.
4. Designated parking spots, and roadside parking spots, with very low parking rates, say Rs.1 for an hour should be set up. Parking tickets be sold via automated machines, common in many countries.
5. The unauthorized parkings, should be just fined and bills sent directly against vehicle number, and to be payable via an online portal. Anyone owning a vehicle in today’s India knows how to navigate Internet. Non payment could have consequences.
6. Along with the above, we should start with a social movement, and training, spreading the word in these select cities on the changes coming. Teach the people the rules and importance of following them, and consequences of not doing it, as we know that most people in our country have not gone through any formal procedure to get a licence(which also tells us a lot about the rot in our RTOs).

Once we successfully do this in the selected cities, say the capitals in each state for example, we can then proceed to take this change to the whole country gradually. The challenge is big, but we have to start somewhere to bring change. We can’t just go on, that this is India – it is chaotic like this.

A well wishing Indian.

India Aspires by Nitin Gadkari: A work-in-progress vision document for the BJP

Virag Padalkar
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India Aspires by Nitin Gadkari: A work-in-progress vision document for the BJP

At the outset, Mr Gadkari seeks to clarify that he is neither an author nor an erudite scholar. His intention in writing this book is to bring to the fore the simple fact that one needs to be neither to make a difference. As he rightly points out, during UPA-1 and UPA-2, the economy was mismanaged by an otherwise highly educated economist with a PhD from Oxford University. To be a bit cheeky, when it comes to policy implementation, erudition is no guarantee of execution.

With that cleared and settled, Mr Gadkari dives into a short history lesson to give us a brief idea of how we’ve ended up where we are. Bear in mind, that this book was published one year before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, so there’s visible angst while giving us this history lesson. Mr Gadkari makes two important points:

1. The BJP is a party with a difference because it is currently one of the very few political organizations that can boast of a meritocratic setup. Mr. Gadkari gives his own example to prove this point and also illustrates its history where disparate individuals not related to each other or not part of a family have led the party in various critical roles. In comparison are the family-ruled parties where power passes from father/mother to son/daughter like clockwork. From SP in Uttar Pradesh to NCP in Maharashtra, political parties have turned into family-owned businesses.

2. Nehruvian Socialism and the resultant mess it created viz the “Permit Raj” set us back a few decades. Mr Gadkari draws a parallel with China and showcases how their move to an open market put them definitively ahead of us. A very avoidable story which we belatedly realized in 1991 when crisis came knocking at our door. Another byproduct of Nehruvian economics was the skewed development it led to. Large investments in big industries like steel plants at the cost of rural development which could be more inclusive. We are still to fully recover from this. The way forward according to Mr Gadkari is a liberal non-interventionist market economy where government plays the role of a safeguard against exploitation and provides a framework for healthy competition. Nothing more and nothing less.

With the history lesson completed, Mr Gadkari gets down to business. Diving into the travails of rural India, Mr. Gadkari lays out the core issues that plague farmers- misappropriation of funds and lack of irrigation. The first creates indebted farmers by denying them cheap finance and denying them relief, the second prevents them from coming out of debt. It’s like a pincer movement and the examples are painful to read about.

Post 2014, one can see traction on the first through schemes like Aadhar and direct benefit transfers. For the second, Mr Gadkari gives the example of cotton production in Gujarat vs the cotton production in Maharashtra. Due to systematic irrigation and government support, the volume of cotton produced near Rajkot is thrice the volume of cotton produced from the same area in the Vidarbha region. He also speaks of how river-inter linking can prove to be a solution for irrigation problems across India. But beyond government programs, Mr Gadkari’s call is to individuals and how they can use innovative farming techniques to bolster their own profits and also generate employment.

Since Mr Gadkari’s specific area of interest is infrastructure development, a large chunk of the book is devoted to studying the benefits of infrastructure development using the Mumbai-Pune Expressway and Mumbai as a case study. To begin with however, Mr Gadkari speaks of how the PPP/BOT model can help make development more inclusive. An interesting example he gives is that of hospitals. It is well known that doctors don’t like secondment / assignment to small cities. To counter this, Mr Gadkari suggests doling out incentives to hospitals should they set up shop in a rural area and if they reserve a certain amount of their resources and efforts to treating under privileged patients. With examples like these, Mr Gadkari lays out a very important principle – that social responsibility, corporate profits and governmental programmes for inclusive development can go hand in hand.

They need not be contradictory concepts. Through the medium of PPPs (Public Private Partnerships), non-governmental entities can fulfill government’s agenda and at the same time earn a profit. In fact, if one reads through Mr Gadkari’s examples for proposed PPP initiatives in agriculture and health-care, one will realise that the type of partnership and benefit can be modified to suit the situation, the industry and the purpose for which said partnership is undertaken. This opens up a broad area of possibilities in areas hitherto untouched by the hand of development. In fact, post 2014; one can see some of these examples being put into action – from healthcare schemes like Ayushman to affordable housing to railway infrastructure development to sewege treatment facilities, PPPs are being utilized in more and more areas to bring in inclusive development.

The rest of the chapters give a very interesting insight into the BJPs agenda of liberalized market economics (with a heavy undercurrent of incentivized inclusive development) put into print as a wishlist in this book since they weren’t then in power. For example, Mr Gadkari speaks of biofuel and how its usage can solve multiple problems right from reducing crude oil import prices to alleviation of farmer’s poverty. Brazil is cited as a case study. At the time of writing this book, it was mandatory that fuel contain between 18% – 22% ethanol. Today, the Brazilian government has raised that range to 25% – 27%. Ethanol is produced from sugarcane and India can largely do a “lift and shift” to this model. Furthermore, car manufacturers do not need to change their assembly lines for this. Only a minor modification is required. In fact, Brazilian car manufacturers today sell “flex” vehicles that can use any proportion of ethanol mixed with petrol (what they call gasoline). Assuming even a 20% cap in ethanol blends, India can reduce its crude oil import bill by 20%. As of 2017, that’s a saving of around INR 95000 crores. In fact, in May 2018, the government of India approved a national policy of biofuel usage in India which allows sugarcane to be used for ethanol production.

Another example Mr Gadkari gives is that of Husk Power Systems, a small startup founded by four youngsters in Bihar with the aim of generating electricity from rice husk. Today Husk Power Systems managed to raise USD 20 million in equity funding. HPS has since then, developed a proprietary system by combining and synchronising solar power system (PV), biomass gasification systems and batteries to deliver reliable, 24×7 power. It offers customers a flexible “pay-as-you-go” energy service, using a mobile-enabled smart metering system. An inspiring example of innovation in action. Using these examples and a heavy dose of statistics to back his claims, Mr Gadkari then takes each case study to its logical conclusion by suggesting the next step of development. For example, once we use unconventional means of electricity generation to become a surplus producer, what stops us from implementing a country-wide network of electric charging stations for cars?

Of course, no BJP leader will complete a book on development without special mention of Gujarat. Mr Gadkari too proudly delves into Mr Modi’s track record of governance initiatives from solar power generation in Patan to “Swagat” which is an e-governance portal to HMIS which is a healthcare information management system. Along with this, there are case studies of other BJP-led governments and their achievements like the implementation of a digitized public distribution system in Chattisgarh.

One is left with the feeling that the book is a work-in-progress vision document for the BJP. The Modi government has undertaken action on many of the points that Mr Gadkari has mentioned in this book (infrastructure development, waterways, airports and regional connectivity schemes etc). Many are yet to commence and groundwork is being done (like Ayushman Healthcare or the Sagarmala project or the inter-linking of rivers). But what’s important is that the book attempts to move political discourse forward by not talking of community-linked politics and speaking instead of reclaiming India’s place of prominence at the global table. Mr Gadkari leaves us with the question of where India should be in 2025. Still mired in angst-ridden politics of want and need or striving towards a plentiful future where the government partners with private enterprise to foster prosperity for all. Simply put, towards politics of development.

Coming end of global Islamic fundamentalism

Lakshmisha K S
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Coming end of global Islamic fundamentalism

In the 1970s, Soviet communism was at its peak. The mighty US had been defeated at the hands of a small guerrilla force, the viet cong. Armed left wing revolutionary movements were springing up every place on earth, from Latin America to South East Asia. It almost seemed like Khrushchev’s famous quote (“Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you.”) was about become a reality. However within the next decade, communist expansion ceased and the heart of the communist power, the soviet union collapsed.

The reason was simple and it was basic economics. Soviet collectivist socialistic economy could no longer fund the  expansionist intentions of the Politburo. One day the chicken came home to roost when Gorbachev tried limited reform to solve the underlying economic malaise with Perestroĭka and Glasnost, but the house of cards simply collapsed.

Something similar is going to transform in the coming decade and the expansionist Jihadi ideology will also see a similar collapse. If one has to understand this, one has to understand the pillars of Jihadi power globally. There are three important power center’s for the Islāmic Jihad – Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey. All three of them will be seriously affected by the coming technological disruption.  The advent of the electric car and the resulting insignificance of oil.  Elon Musk has single-handedly contributed to the eventual destruction of the edifice of global Jihad.

Viewed in today’s context, where oil prices are spiking on a daily basis and the opposition is planning to make it one of the main planks for the coming election, talking about the decline of oil seems counter intuitive. However in the mid to long-term, oil is poised to decline. To understand this, the below factors need to be considered.

  1. Tesla built 5,000 of its Model 3 electric sedans in a single week in the last week of June. Just looking at cars — not pickup trucks or SUVs — this would make model 3 the #9 or #10 best selling car in the USA.
  2. In April 2018 alone, Electric vehicles accounted for 8% of California’s market. This has important implications. While the electric vehicle adoption for the larger US market might be still in the “innovator” stage, there are key pockets where market is near the threshold of “early adopters” stage basis the quoted “Rogers diffusion of innovation”
  3. China is blistering in its pace of adoption of electric vehicles. Car makers have to make sure at least 10% of all vehicle produced are new energy vehicles by 2019 and 12% by 2020. 2.7% of all vehicles sold in China are new energy vehicles, making China the largest EV market in the world. China also restricts the no of licenses available for gasoline and diesel cars available for issue in major cities thus forcing consumers to opt for electric vehicles.
  4. Most people assume small hatchback when people mention about electric vehicles. However, in case of China, the revolution is in urban mass transport. China had about 99 percent of the 385,000 electric buses on the roads worldwide in 2017, accounting for 17 percent of the country’s entire fleet. Every five weeks, Chinese cities add 9,500 of the zero-emissions buses—the equivalent of London’s entire working fleet.
  5. For every 1,000 battery-powered buses on the road, about 500 barrels a day of diesel fuel will be displaced from the market, according to BNEF calculations. This year, the volume of fuel buses take off the market may rise to 279,000 barrels a day, about as much oil as Greece consumes.

The long and short of it is that we have seen what will be one of the last oil price peaks. Irrespective of Tesla and its survivability or Trump’s disdain for clean energy, the technological revolution initiated has a momentum of its own. Electric vehicle technology evolution follows more closely the exponential growth of the electronic industry rather than the linear path of the traditional auto industry, All it took was a decade for the smart phone to become the dominant communication device, it will take another decade for Electric vehicle to become the dominant mode transportation.

The current high oil price has been driven more by the supply side shocks rather than robust uptake in demand. The disruption of oil production in Libya, Venezuela and US sanctions on Iran, coupled with production cuts by OPEC+Russia is the main reason behind the jump in prices. This is primarily driven by Saudi’s need for 80$ to 100$ per barrel for the successful listing of Aramco. If you are skeptical of my forecast of decline of oil, then check out what former Saudi oil minister Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani is purported to have said, “The Stone Age came to an end not because we had lack of stones, and the oil age will come to an end not because we have lack of oil.”

This once in century change has wide-ranging implications across all nations, but for our purpose today let us look at the three principal states – Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey

Iran– Iran with a large restive population coupled with the ongoing sanctions makes it the most vulnerable of the three. The unrest which started in last December continues to simmer to this day. The renewed sanctions under Trump is already causing Iran’s economy to collapse even at oil price of $75 per barrel. Since the U.S. withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal, the rial has lost more than 40% of its value. European companies are leaving Iran in droves, threatening not only trade and investment but also Iran’s ability to sell oil at current volumes. Protests are turning violent day by day, with security forces even shooting at protesters protesting against water scarcity using machine guns and automatic rifles.

The protests are directed towards the clerical regime that rule Tehran. The decline in oil can be significant driver for a regime change in the next few years. The most interesting thing to note in that case is that Iran today is one of the most conservative theological societies in the world. It cannot go further theologically and in fact it is very much possible that Iran would swing the other extreme towards an anti conservative society as demonstrated by the protests against the Hijab. At the least Iran’s capability to export instability and extremism to the wider middle east will become limited.

Saudi Arabia– Saudi Arabia is highly dependent on oil, much more than the other two. However, the significant resources and relatively modest population allows it more leeway than the rest. Even then, IMF estimates that Saudi Arabia needs a oil price of $88 per barrel for balancing its budget, social and foreign commitments. That is the reason why the young Saudi prince is trying desperately to diversify his economy. This year alone, the government raised electricity and petrol prices, introduced a VAT, and required companies to pay extra fees to employ foreigners forcing thousands of foreign workers to leave the country.

Saudi has been the main progenitor Wahhabi extremism driven by Salafistic preaching. It has funded Madrassas from Indonesia to Morocco. The decline in oil prices will definitely impact all of these. Though the young prince is trying hard to divest away from oil, it will be a tough road ahead. In all likely, Saudi would be declining power who will sulk at the decline influence and power it can wield (like UK post the glorious days of its empire). It will not completely stop export of Wahhabi ideology and turn into a modern chick society but its power and ability to spread ideology will rapidly decline.

Turkey– In essence, Turkey is the sole Islāmic power who is not tied to the fortunes of oil. Turkey has a large domestic economy and a manufacturing base. It has a well-educated population and is a member of G-20 and OECD. Thus for Turkey, the decline in oil’s role is immaterial except for the positive impact on trade balances and inflation. However Turkey today is on the brink of crisis driven by the current president’s cronyism rule. The Turkish Lira continues to be one of the worst performing currency in the world. Inflation continues to be at a staggering 15% and combined with large current account deficit, some are predicting an eminent economic collapse on similar lines as Asian financial crisis.

However, it is presently hard to ascertain the implications of an economic collapse. Will the population turn even more conservative, breeding religious extremism or will they revert back to the secular ideology as envision by Ataturk. The repercussion will be felt across Europe to Middle east. It is how Turkish react which will be decisive how political Islam will pan out.

Thus there is a high chance that what we see today is the peak of global Jihadi ideology. While no one can certain of the future and it is very much possible that the same ideology might raise its ugly head in the long future (like socialism‘s come back in US). We can safely ascertain that the coming decade will be critical in the fight against this venom.

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