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International Solar Alliance conference : India takes the lead in creating an international inter-governmental platform for solar energy

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Summary: Solar being her energy future, India (along with France) organized founding International Solar Alliance (ISA) conference in New Delhi on 11 March 2018. By taking lead in creating an international intergovernmental platform for Solar energy, India has shown commitment towards sustainable development and bolstered herself as an advocate of multilateralism as well. However, Solar PV may not be as green as perceived given its potential to generate huge e-waste and complicated disposal system. India must set the agenda for research & manufacturing of the greener Solar PVs.

International Solar Alliance (ISA) – Background

Traditional energy sources will not be enough to meet the future energy demand of India, even if they do, there will be an environmental cost to it. On the other hand, solar energy is renewable, sustainable and abundant in India. Factors like foreign shipping lines, price fluctuation in the international market, loss of foreign exchange & trade deficit, international geopolitics etc are associated with the import of crude oil & petroleum products. That is not the case with solar energy. Solar is sustainable, renewable and abundant in India. Hence, solar energy is a great option for India’s energy security.

Solar being India’s energy future, Narendra Modi  (Prime Minister of India) had taken the lead in establishing an international intergovernmental platform for solar-energy related issues like technology, efficiency, resources and affordability etc. Narendra Modi and Francois Hollande (then French President) jointly initiated the International Solar Alliance (ISA) on the sidelines of the United Nations’ Paris COP21 conference on 30 November 2015. ISA is an intergovernmental alliance of the nations lying between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn (Source –ISA). Today, while the global policy narrative is largely driven by the western world, and China is dominating Asia-scape, India’s leadership in renewable/solar energy is a welcome move.

PM Modi and former French President Hollande had inaugurated the Interim Headquarters of ISA in the campus of National Institute of Solar Energy (NISE), Gurugram, Haryana on 25th January 2016. One year later, the framework of The International Solar Alliance was presented to the member countries for ratifications during the next Conference of Parties (CoP22) in Marrakesh on 15th November 2016. To date, 61 countries including India are the signatories of ISA Framework Agreement (Source –ISA).

Founding ‘International Solar Alliance’ conference, New Delhi (2018)

Ministry of External Affairs India and France Government jointly organized the one day Founding Conference of the International Solar Alliance (ISA) on 11 March 2018 at Rashtrapati Bhavan Cultural Center, New Delhi, India. The ISA conference will be attended by representatives of more than 100 countries including high representatives from 58 countries, International Organizations like the United Nations, International Banks, Researchers, Civil societies etc.

PM MODI, EAM SWARAJ ADDRESS THE CONFERENCE

Narendra Modi (Prime Minister of India), Sushma Swaraj (Minister of External Affairs) India, Emmanuel Macron (President of France) and other dignitaries have addressed in the opening session of the conference. EAM Swaraj said that the goals of Economic growth and sustainable development are not contradictory but are complementary, we must achieve both. She informed the gathering about India’s provision of US$ 27 million to support the ISA cause (EAM’s full statement).

PM Modi cited Vedas, the ancient scriptures of India where Sun is considered as हिरण्यगर्भ, the soul of the universe, the eternal source of energy and life. He stressed the need for the world to harvest solar energy and shift away from fossil fuels to fight climate change. PM Modi reiterated India’s commitment towards SDGs by means of increasingly relying on renewable energy. He informed that India’s goal to produce 175 GW renewable energy including 100 GW solar energy by 2022. To date, India has installed 20 GWh of solar power. PM Modi announced that India has made provision of US$ 62 million for ISA in addition to US$ 27 million mentioned by Swaraj.

PM Modi talked about 10 point action agenda for ISA:

  1. Cheap, reliable, simple and accessible solar technology for all.
  2. Increasing share of solar energy in the total energy mix.
  3. Promoting innovations to find solutions for various solar energy-related issues.
  4. Promoting less risky options for concessional financing of solar projects.
  5. Development of standards and regulations for solar energy to propagate progress and growth.
  6. Providing consultancy support for developing countries for bankable solar projects.
  7. Promoting partnership and inclusiveness.
  8. Developing a network of centres of excellence that will adopt solar technology according to local conditions and factors.
  9. Integrating solar energy policy with the growth & development policy to tap the potential of solar to contribute to sustainable development to the fullest.
  10. Building ISA Secretariat as a strong and professional institution.

PM Modi pitched for embracing renewables energy sources to deal with the challenges posed by global climate change. (PM Modi’s full statement)

International Solar Alliance: Pictures clockwise, starting from bottom left 1. PM Modi, 2. President Macron, 3. PM Modi with dignitaries of 61 countries 4. EAM Swaraj.

Source: Raveesh Kumar, Official MEA Spokesperson

Solar Mamas sing We shall overcome during the ISA conference.

Rendering of the We Shall Overcome by Solar Mamas was one of the highlights of ISA conference. Solar Mamas are the women from developing countries who received training under the skill development programme of India into handling and manufacturing of the Solar PVs and equipment. These women are grassroots workers and solar training is contributing to their livelihoods and empowerment.

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5O5WNXlUuU?ecver=2]

INDIA’S PRESENT & FUTURE ELECTRICITY DEMAND & GROWING SHARE OF RENEWABLES.

Today, India houses 18% of the total global population but amounts for only 6% of total global energy consumption with 240 million without access to electricity (International Energy Agency, 2015). However, India’s electricity demand is growing with the economic growth and increasing electrification via schemes like Deendayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojana etc. The government of India intends to complete 100% electrification by the end of 2018.

According to Central Electricity Authority, the total Installed power generation capacity of India is 330 GWh as of December 2017 out of which, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) is around 18.2% or 60 GWh. Solar Energy accounts for 20 GWh (PM Modi’s speech). By 2040, India’s population is predicted to grow to 161 Crores which will be highest in the world. The electricity demand is predicted to grow to 1000 GWh (International Energy Agency, 2015, p 55). Augmenting the existing generation capacity to meet the demand 2040 is a mammoth task. It is anticipated that renewables energy along with the nuclear energy will have a major share in meeting the electricity demand of 2040. Thus it will be a step towards sustainable development.

COMPLEX DISPOSAL SYSTEM OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) AND NEED FOR RESEARCH INTO ECO-FRIENDLY MATERIALS.

Electricity production from renewable sources is green and the efficiency of Solar PVs has increased substantially over last few years. However, the problem lies with the disposal of the e-waste it generates. Generated electricity is stored in Photovoltaic cells in case of Solar energy. The lifespan of the batteries is argued to be maximum of 20 years. Its material and components need systematic disposal. Materials used for the PV cells include glass, aluminium, copper, lead, plastic, silicon etc.  According to a study by Down to earth, 100 GW solar will generate approximately 7-8 Million Tonne e-waste having toxic materials like lead and recycling process is complicated. Whether the scientific disposal of damaged/used solar PVs can be done in India and if not, where and how this can be done are some of the critical questions.

In conclusion, traditional energy sources will not be enough to meet the future energy demand of India, even if they do, there will be an environmental cost to it. Solar is the energy future of India. By taking lead in creating an international intergovernmental platform for Solar energy, India has also bolstered herself as an advocate of multilateralism. However, Solar PV may not be as green as perceived given its potential to generate huge e-waste. India must set the agenda for research & manufacturing of the eco-friendly Solar PVs with simpler disposal system (of the faulty, damaged or used PVs).

TDP’s exit: BJP Should focus on its own expansion rather than depend on unreliable allies

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Finally what was only a matter of timing has become a reality. The Telugu Desam party has pulled out of the NDA and joined ranks with the opposition, going to the extent of bringing in a no-confidence motion against the government that it was a part of till recently. While announcing the decision, the party labelled serious charges against the BJP and did not bother to sweet coat the divorce. The BJP too, through its spokespersons, has given it back to Chandrababu Naidu, calling him inefficient and incompetent.

Now, is this an irreparable loss for the BJP? Has it become more vulnerable vis-à-vis its other allies? Or is this good riddance?

Before answering that question, let us see what the BJP could have done to mollify its ally of four years. It is clear that short of the “special state” status, the BJP was ready to do everything possible for the state. It is also clear that the TDP would not have settled for anything short of that status. So the divorce became inevitable and was forced on the BJP when YSRCP’s Jagan was seen to be winning the battle of perception. Thus Chandrababu Naidu’s hand was forced by events connected to 2019 state assembly elections. That is understandable, entirely.

But this is nothing new to the BJP. Actually, history is only repeating itself, which it has done many times over already. The DMK, which was a part of the NDA during Vajpayee’s time walked out on it a little before the general elections and without batting an eyelid, went straight to the opposite camp and continued to enjoy power at the centre for another decade. One thing that is obvious is the patent opportunism of the regional parties that ally with the BJP, which become squeaky secular the moment they ditch the BJP and are embraced with open arms by those that are “permanently secular”, which include the likes of INC, SP, the Left and the RJD. All the rest have found it expedient to do business with the BJP whenever it suits them and ditches it when it does not. It is only the BJP that is “permanently communal”.

Today everyone talks about how the BJP is arrogant and does not carry along its allies. It is probably true. But it is also true that none of these so-called allies has stood with the BJP in its times of crises. Under the circumstances, it is only natural for the BJP to feel wary of them. The Shiv Sena is an everyday headache, sulking because it has become a junior partner in Maharashtra. The JDU unceremoniously sacked the BJP ministers in Bihar without offering even the minimum courtesy of allowing them to resign. The BJD, the NC, the DMK and Paswan in an earlier avatar were no better. So why would the BJP repose trust in them? It is only political calculations that bring these parties to the BJP and vice versa. And it is again political calculations, now changed, that make them go their own separate ways. So why crib that BJP does not follow alliance dharma?

When the alliance partners are nothing but partners in power only, the BJP has every right to try and expand its voter base and grow in these states. In some of them, it has actually succeeded. The allies have always come to the BJP only when it was in a position of strength and therefore it should continue its attempts to expand in states where it is not a force to reckon with now.

Today it is the TDP, tomorrow, as the general elections draw nearer, it could be anybody else. Let it take in its stride this kind of behaviour by allies and redouble its efforts to retain its existing base and expand where it is not strong.

How does Russia and UK’s tension impact world?

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UK Prime Minister Theresa May has imposed new sanctions on Russia. Russia is accused of giving poison to former Russian spy and his daughter in Britain. Russia has called this action inappropriate.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May expelled 23 Russian diplomats from the country. There is tension between the two countries in the case of poisoning a Russian spy and his daughter. After which the UK has taken this action.

In his statement, UK Prime Minister Theresa May said that Russia has not made its stand clear in this matter within the timeline given by Britain, hence Britain has taken this decision.

On March 4, 2018, Russian spy and his daughter were poisoned in Britain. The UK has accused Russia of chemical attack. While Britain is trying to increase pressure on Russia in this matter with fellow countries, Russia has also made it clear that it will respond to any action that is going on against it.

The most recent case is that of Sergey Scripple and his daughter, former Russian spy. British police say they have been attacked with a rare substance after which their condition remains serious. The Russian Embassy in Britain has raised concerns about reports of British media about poisoning Sergey Scripple and his daughter. Russia says that it is ready for all kinds of cooperation in the investigation of this matter.

Former KGB detective Alexander Litvinenko found Green Tea at London’s Millennium Hotel, in which the poisonous substance Polonium-210 was found. There are allegations that the assassination itself took place at the behest of Russian President Vladimir Putin, although the Russian government has always denied it. Putin’s bitter critic Litvinenko was living in London.

In November 2012, after a London hotel, 44-year-old Russian citizen Alexander Perepilichhanni was found dead in a luxurious house. He had helped to investigate a Swiss investigating Russian money laundering after which he had to flee from Russia. Doubts suspected of murder even after his sudden death. But Russia also denied having its hand in it.

The Prime Minister said, “This attitude of Russia shows that it is against Britain, so the answer should be equally strong.” He said that he suspends all high-level contacts between Britain and Russia and in view of this 23 Russian diplomats are expelled. They have been given a week’s time to leave the country.

Theresa May described it as the biggest expulsion of the last 30 years. At the same time, it has been said that the government property of Russia will be seized in Britain. I made it clear that no member of the royal family will be included in the Football World Cup to be held in Russia.

66-year-old Russian spy Sergey Scripple and his 33-year-old daughter, Yulia, were targeted by poisoning the city of Salisbury, England. I had targeted Russia from joining the conspiracy of this attack, but Russia has been telling the story of not being involved in this whole plot. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin recently said that Britain should go into its fold before it can be discussed with Russia in this matter.

Dear Aakar Patel, the Indian Army doesn’t need your ‘Aakarwani’

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Dear Mr Patel,

I am writing this in reply to your article dated 11 Feb 2018 in FirstPost where you have once again palpably blamed the Jawans of Indian Armed Forces for indulging in Rapes, murders and letting off scot-free by successive governments. However, an elitist pen warrior operating from the comforts of your air-conditioned up-market Bangaluru home, with continued dependence on the world wide web of the internet, you are once again wrong in your allegations. I insist that not for the sake of all those Jawans sacrificing their lives and limbs in persistent battles to free Jammu and Kashmir from the clutches of Jihad but, also for the sake of the sanity of the profession that you earn your daily bread from.

If, you wish to report the so-called rapes and murders carried out by the Indian Army Jawans, you must go and stay at the grounds of action in Baramulla or in Pulwama or any other city or village of Kashmir from where the FIRs which, you claim, were turned down by the central government, would have originated from.

Mr Aakar Patel, you seem to have never cared about ethics of Journalism. My parent institution, the Indian Armed forces has a zero-tolerance policy on sexual abuse cases. Unlike, Mr Patel and the radical jihadist fighters Islam, whom the world addresses as terrorists, the forces have a very stringent policy and some very tough rules on prevention of sexual and other abuses by its personnel. The islamic state sympathisers and the propagators of Jihad have none.

Mr. Patel, you have quoted a question and its answer from the parliament proceedings. Since 2001, 18 years have passed and total 50 such cases were received by the Union Government. The reason cited by the minister of state in the Mod are, “denial / pendency of prosecution sanction is on account of lack of sufficient evidence to establish a prima facie case.”

This is one superb case of yellow journalism. The center did not approve those FIRs because there were no merits in those cases. In a blatant act of duplicity with your profession, Mr. Internet journalist – Aakar Patel, you are deliberately hiding the other side of the coin from the world.

The flag bearers of islamic Jihad from across the border came to India, armed with weapons, military training and a very abusive libido. The pathans, the pashtuns and all other foreign terrorists, once into our lands barge inside homes of local Kashmiris to seek shelter and food. They abused the women and defiled their dignity. That went on till the Indian Army didn’t dispatch them to where they belong.

While reporting non-registration of cases against Army Jawans, Mr Aakar, you have deliberately not mentioned even a single case of abuse by the Jihadists. Although one can very well understand the absence groundwork and lack of knowledge from you, your deliberate mislead about universal law of Justice that says, “accused is not guilty until proven so”, points towards your malafide intentions to blame the holiest institutions of India and its innocent subjects – the Jawans.

It is unfortunate that the mute sons of soil, the Jawans are always in the line of fire from activists like you – Mr. Patel, and from stone palters, terrorists and politicians alike. Such attempts are part of campaigns of misinformation to undermine the AFSPA and instigate its removal to let the whole state of Jammu and Kashmir slip out of India’s safe hands into a Jihadist slumber.

I am not saying that the Armed Forces are above criticism. But, Aakarwani was conspicuously silent when Batman system and supply of poor quality of food to the Jawans were debated.

No abuse, no rape, no murder can be ever be justified but at the same time neither are the blame game and fake activism of certain individuals and institutions.

Jai Hind.

Petty Officer Manan Bhatt, Veteran

Why losing the by-polls may actually have been planned by the BJP

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Mainstream media, ‘neutral’ journos and almost all political parties outside the NDA (and some within) are treating BJP’s loss in the by-elections in Uttar Pradesh as some kind of a watershed moment. Their exuberance over the loss in Gorakhpur and Phulpur arises from their newfound belief that combining their respective vote banks might be the only chink in the armour for the mighty Modi-Shah battle machine.

Although Yogi Adityanath has taken full responsibility for the loss and many BJP supporters have reacted with severe criticism of the party, there are many reasons to believe that this loss is in fact one of the best things which has happened and hence it may have been planned after all:

  1. These results have shaken up the ground cadre like nothing else over the last 4 years. There was an increasing sense of complacency among the BJP grassroot level worker especially in the BJP ruled states possibly due to overconfidence of victories or fatigue from gruelling election campaigns. However, this one loss has delivered the ultimate message to every karyakarta – If the hard work stops, success stops. Delivering the message in such a convincing and yet subtle style is very much the Amit Shah way and hence he may have actually wanted this to play out the way it did.
  2. The loss has given a massive wake up call to the average BJP voter. It is natural that the voter takes the party for granted after such back to back victories across assembly, municipal and panchayat elections. The ‘individual voter’ tends to underestimate the significance of his/her vote in such circumstances assuming that the mandate would anyway be positive and their participation is probably not going to influence it much. This loss has changed that drastically and has been successful in the inception of a well-placed fear among the voters that if they do not actually head out and vote on the particular day, it could lead to total disaster. And if there is one factor other than hope which really brings out the masses it is fear. And Shah knows this all too well.
  3. The final and perhaps the biggest reason for this being a shot in the arm for the BJP is that this loss has completely revealed the greedy ambitions and selfish motives of top leaders of every party (including a few in the NDA). TDP has pulled out of the alliance, Shiv sena is more vocal about its criticism than ever before and even so called neutral parties such as the AIADMK have come out in support of a no confidence motion. This is almost a game of thrones style fight for leadership which has begun to emerge in the opposition and such coming together of opportunistic leaders is likely to polarize the voters even further towards electing a stable, clarity filled government which only the BJP can offer. What better way to remind the voters that the opposition is filled with vultures who would swoop down to clinch any prey as long as it propels them ahead. BJP would know that this result would actually fast track the formation of ‘gatbandhans’ across the country and enable the voters to witness these power struggles long enough to be able to make a sane judgement till the 2019 elections and come out in greater numbers than they did in 2014.

Essentially a loss that was needed for course correction and to stop complacency from creeping in.

कांग्रेस के राजस्थान, मध्यप्रदेश, छत्तीसगढ़ को मुफ्तखोर कहने के बाद यहां की जनता कांग्रेस को क्यों चुने?

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वर्तमान राजनीतिक परिदृश्य में कांग्रेस के बचे कुचे कुछ ही मुख्यमंत्रियों में से एक सिद्दारमैया जी हैं। आगामी चुनाव में कर्नाटक राज्य में सत्ता बनाए रखने के लिए उन पर और पार्टी पर भारी दबाव है। मुख्यमंत्री जी यह सुनिश्चित करने के लिए सभी संभव रणनीति का उपयोग कर रहे हैं जिससे कि उनकी मजबूत स्थिति बनी रहे। समाज में दरार पैदा कर उनको कुरेद कर विभाजनकारी एजेंडे का लगातार सहारा लिए जा रहे हैं।

आधिकारिक राज्य ध्वज का मुद्दा, ‘हिंदी अधिरोपण’ और लिंगायत समुदाय को एक अलग धर्म का दर्जा देने के लिए प्रोत्साहन इसके कुछ उदाहरण हैं। इसके अलावा, एक लेख में मुख्यमंत्री ने उत्तर भारत के गरीब राज्यों में करों के हस्तांतरण के तर्क पर सवाल उठाया है।

अपने ‘विकासित दक्षिण अधिक आबादी वाले उत्तर को सब्सिडी दे रहा है’ शीर्षक लेख में, मुख्यमंत्री ने दावा किया है कि दक्षिणी राज्यों को अपने स्वयं के राज्य में एकत्रित धन खर्च करने के लिए पर्याप्त स्वायत्तता नहीं दी गई है। वह विशेष रूप से अपने लेख में आबादी का मुद्दा उठाते हैं वह लिखते हैं:

“ऐतिहासिक रूप से, दक्षिण उत्तर को सब्सिडी दे रहा है। विंध्या के दक्षिण में छह राज्य अधिक करों का योगदान करते हैं और उन्हें कम मिलता है। उदाहरण के लिए, उत्तर प्रदेश द्वारा दिए गए प्रत्येक एक रुपए के टैक्स के लिए कि राज्य को 1.79 रुपये मिलते हैं कर्नाटक द्वारा योगदान किए गए प्रत्येक एक रुपये के लिए, राज्य को 0.47 रुपये प्राप्त होता है। यद्यपि मैं क्षेत्रीय असंतुलन को सुधारने की आवश्यकता को समझता हूं, विकास के लिए प्रोत्साहन कहाँ है? दक्षिण के राज्यों में जनसंख्या वृद्धि दर लगभग प्रतिस्थापन स्तर पर पहुंच गए हैं। फिर भी, जनसंख्या केंद्रीय करों के हस्तांतरण के लिए एक प्रमुख मानदंड है। हम कब तक जनसंख्या वृद्धि को प्रोत्साहन प्रदान कर सकते हैं?”

अगर इस तर्क को व्यापक सामाजिक संदर्भ में लागू किया जाए, तो मेहनती मध्यम वर्गों से एकत्रित किए गए कर को पीडीएस चावल या कल्याणकारी नीतियों पर खर्च नहीं किया जाना चाहिए, जो मुख्यमंत्री जी राज्य में चला रहे हैं। मध्य वर्ग पहले से ही पूछ रहे हैं कि ‘हम अल्पसंख्यकों और गरीबों को किस तरह वित्तपोषण कर रहे हैं, जो बड़े परिवार के आकार वाले हैं?’

इसी तर्क को बढ़ाया जा सकता है ‘मुस्लिम जनसंख्या वृद्धि का प्रोत्साहन हिन्दू कितने समय तक कर सकते हैं?’ सिद्दारमैया जी ऐसा सुझाव देते हुए प्रतीत हो रहें हैं कि दक्षिणी राज्यों से अर्जित किया गया कर उत्तरी राज्यों के साथ साझा नहीं किया जाना चाहिए।

यद्यपि यह प्रकथन मौलिक रूप से प्रगतिशील करों के स्वीकार्य तर्क (यानी कि अधिक अमीरों पर अधिक कर) के खिलाफ है, इस सुझाव से राष्ट्रीय संदर्भ में भी भौहें तन जानी चाहिए। यदि हर समृद्ध व्यक्ति या अमीर राज्य गरीब वर्गों या गरीब राज्यों से करों के रूप में धन का एक हिस्सा साझा करने से इनकार करने लगे, तो समाज और राष्ट्र दूरगामी परिपेक्ष में कैसे कार्य कर सकते हैं?

क्या कांग्रेस पार्टी और राहुल गांधी इस तर्क को स्वीकार करते हैं? अगर वे उत्तर प्रदेश, राजस्थान और छत्तीसगढ़ जैसे उत्तर भारतीय राज्यों में इस वर्ष सत्ता में आएंगे तो क्या वे सिद्दरामिया के तर्कों को स्वीकार करेंगे? क्या लोगों को एक ऐसी पार्टी स्वीकार कर लेनी चाहिए जो दक्षिणी राज्यों की भावनाओं पर निभाता है, जबकि इस वक्तव्य से सीधे राष्ट्रीय एकता और विकास को खतरे में डालता है? क्या इन राज्यों ने राष्ट्रीय महत्त्वाकांक्षी पार्टी द्वारा दिया गया “नि:शुल्क सवारों” की उपाधि या पहचान स्वीकार कर लिया है?

(it is a Hindi translation of this article)

Reasons of BJP losing by-polls in Gorakhpur and Phulpur in Uttar Pradesh

Barely few days after historic expansion in North East, BJP rath has got halted a bit because of Uttar Pradesh bypolls results. Before explaining everything, let us find the reasons behind the loss

1.Candidate selection: Both in Phulpur and Gorakhpur, candidate selection by BJP was very wrong.

In Phulpur, they brought Kaushlendra Singh Patel who was working in Varanasi and Mirzapur. He did not have time and energy to campaign. In Gorakhpur, BJP fielded a Brahmin candidate on constituency which did not have favourable caste mix (as we will see later in this article).

2. Booth level workers are not aggressive: As Candidates are not much supported at local level, BJP workers who are famous for maintaining booths are not much aggressive and enthusiastic.

3. Mahagatbandhan at the last week: The mahagatbandhan of SP-BSP after 23 years which was announced just one week before the election completely tilted the game

4. Voting percentage: The voting percentage recorded was very low and in Phulphur it did not even touch 40%, which is very low. As per the previous trends, usually BJP gets a fighting chance only if the voting percentage is at least 55%.

5. Caste factor: BJP got the caste combination completely wrong. For example, out of nearly 19.5 lakh voters in Gorakhpur, the biggest caste chunk is those of the Nishads and Mallahs, whose population is around 4.5 lakh, or nearly 23 per cent of the voters. The next biggest chunk of voters are 3.5 lakh Muslims that make for nearly 18 per cent voters. Dalits – of who there are nearly 3.5 lakh – together make up the third biggest chunk. All these combination completely sided with Mahagatbandhan. Almost same case happened in case of Phulpur.

6. Controlling Examination Mafia: Yogi’s strict action against examination mafia is perceived as an act against OBCs (most students opting out of exams came from that section) and Yogi govt is seen as govt for upper castes which angered OBCs.

So now as just one year left before the 2019 election, let us see whether BJP can bounce back or is it the end of road as predicted by many media houses:

1. The unity of Mahagatbandhan: SP-BSP bonhomie is at the very early stage. Everybody outside U.P wants the alliance to continue, but only U.P people know that all is not well between Akhilesh and Mayawati, which can be sensed by the fact that Akhilesh did not comment anything on the future of the alliance in the press meet which happened yesterday.

2. Enhancing the voting percentage: Even after the mahagatbandhan, BJP lost Gorakhpur by 20000 votes and Phulpur by 60000 votes. For loksabha polls, this gap is not very big, and if BJP works properly and increases the voting percentage this difference can be recovered.

For example, out of 20 Lakh registered voters in Phulpur, in the bypolls almost 7.5 Lakh people voted but if BJP manages to bring another 2-3 lakh voters during general election, it completely tilts the game.

3. Avoiding the complacency: Bringing back that famed BJP election machine with Panna Pramukhs and Shakti kendras is the need of the hour. Need to avoid complacency at any cost.

4. Candidate selection: Need to select candidates properly. There are rumors going on that Yogiji was not happy with the candidate selected for Gorakhpur constituency. So the need of the hour is selecting candidates by satisfying all the caste arithmetic.

As per the above analysis, this defeat is recoverable provided BJP ties the loose ends.

Today in history: First official cricket test match played

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From the beginning of human civilization, the Games had made its place in the society. Different games are born in different corners of the world. Cricket started in England at the beginning of the 16th century. Although there is no solid evidence of this, it is also recognized that it started at the beginning of the 14th century. The first official cricket test match game was played in Melbourne, Australia on 15-19 March 1877. Australia won by 45 runs.

The game that came to India from England touched the new heights of popularity. When an Indian star cricketer retired, it seemed as if there was a star broken from the sky.

In the history of Test cricket, Alfred Shaw of England bowled the first ball. Charles Bannerman of Australia faced this ball and also made the first century. Bannerman scored 18 fours in this match and scored 165 runs. The banners were out, but they had to return to the pavilion after the injury. England bowler George Joliet’s ball hit one of his fingers and he had to come back from the pitch. Bannerman’s score of 165 is the highest score of Test cricket for seven years. In 1884, the record was broken by Billy Murdoch with a double hundred.

There is much interesting information related to the first test. There was no time limit for this test match. Both teams had to play two innings. Regardless of how long it will take for it. Australia’s Billy Midwinder took 5 wickets for the first time in Test cricket. This was followed by England’s Alfred Shaw five and Tom Kandall of Australia won seven wickets.

Australia decided to bat first before winning the toss in this match. In the first innings, Australia scored 245 runs with the help of Bannerman’s Century. In reply, England’s team was dismissed for 196 runs.

Although Bannerman did not run in the second innings of Australia and the whole team was out for 104 runs. In the second innings, England had to score just 153 runs to win, but the whole team was out by 108 runs. The first Test match was played for four days.

Is Ministry of Finance (MoF) controlling Banking without skin in the game?

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The Prime Minister forewarned the Nation on 7th February that the Banks gave bad loans for years without due checks and balances in which repayments are not forthcoming or long overdue resulting into 82% Non-Performing Assets (NPA in the common parlance). Within a week of this speech one of the major Public Sector Bank PNB files a complaint in the CBI of fraud by a leading diamond merchant of more than 11 thousand crore rupees. Over a few weeks, the extent of this fraud spiraled and it became quite clear that this kind of fraud is not a one-off case but seems to repeat itself with an alarming frequency.

In this backdrop, all the fingers are pointing towards bankers and independent auditors, but that is missing the point. In order to have a dispassionate and informed standpoint let’s examine the impact of MoF on Public sector banks (PSBs) in last 10 years by looking at the audit and vigilance reports.

Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) is the supreme constitutional body responsible for independent, credible, balanced and timely auditing and reporting on public finance and governance. Public sector banks, however, have independent auditors and CAG audits MOF, the owner of PSBs. Only one audit report created in 2017 by CAG is available on its website on the issue of recapitalization of PSBs. This report is based on the scrutiny of files and documents of MOF and covers a period of 10 years (2008 to 2017). This fact is quite revealing that period of reporting is pretty long on such an important aspect of finance.

The report points out that MOF infused Rs.1,18,724 crores in last 10 years without following any objective or specific criteria to recapitalize banks. Sometimes it was solely on the basis of information received from the PSBs without any independent verification by the MOF. At other times, although parameters were fixed for assessing the capital requirement of the banks, these guidelines were ignored. The report also reveals that corporate lending contributed the maximum extent of NPAs and the recoveries of these bad debts never matched the write-offs, thus draining public funds out of the financial system. The basic principle of financial propriety expects public officers to exercise the same vigilance with public money as they would exercise in respect of expenditure of their own money. It is quite evident that this prudent approach was ignored in infusing funds in the banks.

Coming to the vigilance reports available on net, a record number of more than 46,000 punishments were given during the period of 10 years from 2007 to 2016 by Central Vigilance Commission (CVC), which is the apex vigilance institution, free of any executive control. As a result, various categories of bank employees got punished by the MOF for frauds and other corruption. It would be quite interesting to know that whether any of the PSB bank board members who takes decision on lending high value loans and their write offs were penalized by MOF in the last 10 years. It seems that this is unlikely, and so PSB board members, their directors, or finance ministry officials on bank boards, while deciding the issues of crores and crores worth of public funds do not incur any risk even when they take erroneous decisions.

Banking is all about risks. We all may differ on whether we have too many rules and regulations or too few of them, but it should be clear that officials who use public money should never ignore the basic principles of prudency. However, based on the last 10 year reports from audit and vigilance and these incidents of fraud have shown, this is not what happens in practice, and the officials tend to take undue risks, which cause a lot of pain to the common man.

Ultimately, the only way to ensure that officials do not take undue risk is they have to share the risk themselves so that they can be effectively sued if they take decisions which are against the larger interest of the society.

Is the PNB Fraud Just the Tip of the Iceberg?

Another major financial scam hit headlines in January 2018 involving “fraudulent and unauthorized” transactions involving letters of undertaking (guarantee) to Antwerp based diamantaire Nirav Modi amounting to over Rs. 12,500 crores at the Punjab National Bank (PNB). Initial reports have suggested that this originated at a branch in Mumbai where a manager allegedly took advantage of the incomplete integration of the bank’s core banking platform with the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) network. The LOUs provided Nirav Modi access to huge foreign exchange loans provided by banks including the State Bank of India, Axis Bank, Allahabad Bank and Canara Bank. The diamantaire’s subsequent default on the loans blew the lid.

It is well known that the Banking industry all over the world, including India, is a highly regulated industry. Yet, with so many regulations and agencies monitoring it, Indian banks have been subjected to high profile, high value frauds with a regularity that is numbing. What is even more galling is the apparent ease with which the fraudsters seem to get away and live happily ever after. It makes us wonder if the authorities are really capable of providing a safe and secure banking environment for the people in India or are really just paper tigers. Whatever be the truth, the money has disappeared and there is little hope of retrieval.

This scam is reminiscent of the fraud that bought down Barings Futures Singapore (BFS) in the late 90s. Investigation had then revealed that Nick Leeson, a broker at the Bank’s Singapore office allegedly unbeknownst to the management, had entered into unauthorized speculative trading, that bought the bank down.

It is precisely to fix these types of frauds by lone wolves as well as risks arising from technology related issues that the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) brought out guidelines for enhanced scrutiny in the subsequent release of the Basel II guidelines. These robust guidelines have further been expanded in Basel III release and have largely succeeded in plugging these types of frauds worldwide. Like many countries, India too has mandated its banks to adopt these guidelines to bolster their risk management capabilities.

It will be instructive to look at the level of scrutiny banks in India, in particular, are subjected to. Firstly, each of these banks have their own set of guidelines for periodic – usually annual – mandatory audit of high value transactions both by internal as well as external auditors. This means, in the PNB scam case, at least ten internal and external audits of the five banks must have reviewed the same high value transactions of Nirav Modi at different points in time.

In addition, these banks themselves conduct periodic governance, risk and compliance audits that would specifically look into any operational or enterprise risks. Over and top of all this, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) meticulously inspects the banks regularly. This includes on site as well as offsite surveillance of the banks by dedicated teams.

The million dollar question on everybody’s mind is how did the diamantaire manage to pull wool over the eyes of PNB and the regulators? The obvious answer is that the auditors and agencies appear to have been silenced by invisible hands.

A look at the data published by RBI is indeed telling. (Please see table below – Bank-wise and Bank Group-wise Gross Non-Performing Assets report published by RBI at www.rbi.org.in). The non-performing assets (NPA) or bad loans as a percentage of gross loan jumped from 6.55% in 2015 to 12.90% in 2016 and then to 12.53% in 2017.

It must be mentioned here that loans take several payments cycles and considerable delinquency (non-payment of dues) and/or a default to be classified as an NPA. In other words, Nirav Modi’s loan accounts and consequent exposure to banks arising out of the letters of undertaking would have been in active audit and regulatory scrutiny for considerable amount of time before it became a hot potato.

The report itself points to the fact that RBI knew about this precipitous jump in NPAs at PNB in 2016 or even much earlier. This would have automatically raised red flags internally and triggered closer review by the regulator. There is absolutely no gainsaying the fact that Dr. Raghuram Rajan, the then Governor of the RBI, must have been fully aware of this scam.

As is the wont of such high profile scams, many questions, including the most obvious ones, remain unanswered. If data available in public domain was already pointing to almost doubling of delinquent accounts in just twelve months at PNB, what actions did the regulators take? Were they prevented from discharging their duties? If so by whom? What was the role played by the then Ministry of Finance?

At least some things can be deduced from the above report. PNB must have been aware of this much before the RBI or the Ministry of Finance were informed since they compiled and sent the data to RBI.  The RBI knew what was going on at PNB long before the matter became public. Hence the arrest of low level officers at PNB or the alleged lack of connectivity to SWIFT are nothing but scapegoats in what now appears to be a premeditated loot of public money.

The PNB executive management and the auditors cannot escape responsibility for their negligence and apparent inaction, for that is tantamount to abetment of this colossal crime. The need of the hour is to revamp the bank’s executive management and clean up its audit and compliance processes. PNB has to step up the transparency in disclosures and come clean on the fraud so the real culprits face the law.

Recent media reports have pointed to the involvement of a senior politician of the UPA regime in this scam. Fingers point to a former minister in the UPA regime who has also been at the center of multiple other corruption accusations. Given India’s post-independence history of corruption, this comes as no surprise at all. That the scam leaked into public domain is the real surprise if at all there is any.

Banking, as we all know, is a business built on trust and relationships. Repeated breach of public trust in banks in India are symptomatic of a deeper malaise in the banking system.  It is now incumbent on the government and it’s investigating agencies to get to the bottom of the PNB scam and book the culprits – be it lowly officers or the high and mighty political overlords and bring them to justice. Any delay will only widen the public’s trust deficit in India’s banks.