China’s economic rise and modernization process, which began in the late 1970s and early 1980s, not only made it a prominent actor in the international system in the 2000s, but also attracted attention to East Asia and the Asia-Pacific region in general. In short, in the last thirty or forty years, there has been a power shift from the Atlantic to the Pacific region, led by China in particular.
Naturally, the architect and the leading actor of the current order, the United States (US), has built its future vision on the Asia-Pacific and the recently highlighted Indo-Pacific region rather than the Atlantic, the Middle East or any other region since the 2010s. Basically, the essence of both strategies is to shift the global strategic weight from the Atlantic to the Pacific region for the US.
In this respect, with the ‘Pivot to Asia’ strategy initiated during the period of President Barack Obama, the US not only strengthened the San Francisco alliance system it established after the World War II in the region, but also tried to improve its relations with new partners. While the US’s relations based on the bilateral alliance system consist of Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Korea, Thailand, and the Philippines, Vietnam and India stand out among new partners.
Moreover, it has supported the development of relations between its allies and partners. Similar political initiatives continue in the vision of the Indo-Pacific, which was announced during President Trump and continued under Biden administration. However, among all these political initiatives, India is the most critical and strategic country for the US. The main reason that makes India important in the regional strategy of the US stems from its geopolitical position because India, as a country with the potential to be a great power in the southern sub-region of Asia in the US strategy, is intended to be revealed as a counterweight to China.
The US clearly sees China as a rising power trying to change the status-qua in the Asia-Pacific region. therefore, for the last few years, it does not define China as a strategic partner, as it used to, but as a strategic competitor or systemic rival. Factors such as China’s geographic, economic, military, and population size leave little choice for the US to find as a counterbalance or hedging actor against China.
In this context, US Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Mike Gilday said in a seminar organized by the Heritage Foundation in Washington on Thursday, august 26, 2022, “India will be crucial partner for America in the future, playing a key role in countering China. India presents China with a two-front problem.” These statements, in fact, reflect the significance of India’s geopolitics in the US strategic calculations. In the eyes of the Americans, India can act as an important second front in its rivalry with China or in the event of a possible conflict, keeping China’s attention from focusing only on Taiwan or the Pacific region.
So, would it be the right approach for India to align with the United States and turn to a bloc policy against China? First of all, India currently has a weak profile among the countries in the region, in particular among ASEAN countries. If it wants to develop its profile within the framework of “Look East” policy, its alignment with the US, which is an extra-regional power and moreover, perceived as an interventionist power, will not raise its profile amid the countries of the region. On the contrary, it can have the opposite effect as it can be seen as a move that forces them to choose sides in the regional rivalry between the US and China.
In addition, it is both an opportunity and danger for India that the US deployed its 60 % of its naval presence in the Pacific, strengthened its allies and developed partnerships in the region. it is a fact that although the two most important actors of this century’s international relations are the US and China, India is the most strategic country of this century due to its geostrategic importance in the competition of these two countries. Therefore, India’s position in the US-China competition will not only determine whether it will be the third great power next to the US and China, but also will determine the course of global relations.
Why should India align with the Us on the issues such as the East and South China Sea disputes or Taiwan, which are of little geopolitical concern to India? Such a misalignment would not make India the third major power in the future. Therefore, it is essential for India to remain neutral in the US-China competition and to maintain strategic partnerships with both countries.
It can be argued here that the border problems between India and China may create problems in maintaining the strategic partnership. However, it should not be forgotten, can the US be an actor that can contribute to the solution of India’s border problems with China? No way because from Washington’s point of view, India should remain an actor that will create a big headache against China and the parties should not be able to solve the problem/ as long as the existence of the problem is in the interest of Washington, it is out of question for the US to be a part of the solution. Therefore, the starting place and the ending place of the solution are the dialogue and negotiation table between New Delhi and Pekin.
Finally, unless China’s pressure in India increases and India has no choice but to align with the US, it should not be included in the US’s Indo-Pacific vision and contribute to the formation of a kind of bloc politics. Moreover, in the early years of the Cold War, India remained neutral in the rivalry between the US and the Soviet Union, becoming one of the leading countries of the Non-Aligned Movement under the leadership of Prime Minister Nehru and embracing the five principles of peaceful co-existence. Since then, it has continued this policy and has not entered into an alliance with any country.
In the current rivalry between the US and China, if New Delhi takes place in the US’ vision of Into-Pacific, it will only reflect its geopolitical importance in US strategies. However, what is more important for India will be its geostrategic importance in the competition between the US and China. This is only possible if India remains neutral. It cannot be possible for one side to be a “balancer” or “hedging actor” for the other in the US-China rivalry. The most ideal is to play the role of balancer of balance by using its geostrategic importance.
