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An analysis of BJP’s Defeat in three State Elections

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BJP’s defeat in three state election has definitely come as a shock for the BJP supporters. In absence of any actual raw data for defeat from the ground of three state, BJP supporters are speculating reasons of defeat on their own.

Out of these speculations few major points are emerging.

Lack of counter narrative from BJP:

Congress has waged a war through misinformation since Modi government has come at center. Church Attack, OROP protest by retired Army personal, Media person’s march, Award Waapsi, Kisaan Andolan, Patel agitation, Gurjer Andolan, Jaat Andolan, Yogi said Hanuman is Dalit, Modi wants to snoop your computer etc all are part of this sustained war by the Congress.

Irony is that none of them were genuine or spontaneous. All of them were manufactured and this gave BJP enough ammunition to widely expose them. BJP failed to do so. It could have exposed each and everyone of these manufactured events vehemently to continue the undercurrent that Congress is a very rogue and unethical party which was already established prior to 2014 Lok Sabha election.

These exposes then should have been utilized during the election campaign of various state in audio video format to keep voter vary of congress party.

Instead of doing this we got one or two statement from BJP spokesperson or chief minister of concerned state that the said Andolan is a congress conspiracy. BJP also failed to back its conspiracy statement by effective prosecution of culprits of these violent agitations.

If BJP is thinking that these lies  and conspiracies of congress do not have ground effect, they are wrong. In last one month I have heard at least 20 upper cast people using extremely derogatory language against UP CM YogiAdityanath because they believe that Yogi said Hanuman is Dalit.

BJP will have to pay high price in 2019 election if they do not evolve a strategy to countering a congress lie the very minute it rises. Making truth instantly available to everyone via whatsapp & other social media messages in audio visual format is the only way which will work to defeat these lies.

(For this I have talked about need of a online repository in my third point: “Lacuna’s in BJP’s Social Media strategy’ )

BJP has failed to expose the proxies of Congress:

Be it sold media persons, ex RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, Prominent Intellectual, Eminent Historian, NGO and legal aid societies working at the behest of congress, BJP has failed to expose and discredit them widely.

Congress has used its advocate to oppose many nationalistic and Dharmic cause including Ram Mandir in court. It has used ilks like Prashant Bhushan in Rafael Deal and SC ST atrocity Act to trap Modi Government.

This failure has resulted in three causalities.

Statement by these intellectuals are still being used in Facebook and WhatsApp forward to doubt Modi’s policies and initiatives and gullible public is often falling for it.

Cracker ban and SC ST Atrocity Act trap is making upper cast to believe that Modi is unable to safeguard the interest of Hindu upper cast.

While congress can safely use its proxies and still fake its non-involvement in all such matters, BJP does not have its proxies to expose congress proxies.

It is understandable that it is difficult for BJP to say that congress is using its advocate Kapil Sibal to oppose Ram Mandir or using Prashant Bhushan to harm SC & ST interest in SC ST Atrocity Act. It can easily be done by BJP by having it’s own proxies.

Imagine the scenario if a rally was organized and a sustained noise, continued Dharna Pradarshan was made against the congress president Rahul Gandhi on the very second day when case related to SC ST Act or Rafael Deal or cracker ban was filed by Prashant Bhushan etc saying that congress is trying to punish the Dalit (in SC ST act) or upper cast (Cracker Ban) by its advocate because Rahul Gandhi feels ‘how dare they have not voted for them in 2014 election’.

Then audio visuals of this Darna Pradarshan could have been utilized during the election campaign of various state in audio video format to keep upper and Dalit voter vary of congress party.

Such proxies from BJP would have brought BJP on equal footing with congress in all proxy wars like cracker ban and Rafael deal.

Nevertheless, party still can spread this message via its whatsapp group that those who filed PIL to dilute SC ST prevention of atrocity act, work for congress party all the time.

This can also be done in disguise of running a documentary by proxy on Indira Jai Singh or Prashant Bhushan or Kapil Sibal on a news channel. In that story/documentary it can be shown that these advocates are related to congress party & they often file PIL to oppose Ram Mandir, support Afzal guru or dilute SC Sct prevention of Atrocity act at the behest of congress party. After airing of this documentary a dharna pradarshan by proxy can be done against Rahul Gandhi for trying to dilute SC St Atrocity Act by advocates on his pay roll.

Lacuna’s in Bjp’s Social Media strategy:

Party is not giving enough opportunity to BJP Influencers on various social media (Like Facebook or Twitter) to disseminate their daily effort through BJP’s election whatsapp group. So these influencers effort to mark and counter the anti Modi narrative or false propaganda is being limited to their followers only.

Multifarious arguments by BJP influencers and followers to unsettle a congress propaganda are thus not reaching to a wider audience. It is also not clear whether party is collecting these arguments by various BJP influencers and taking it to wider audience or not through its whatsapp and other channel. They are not doing it in TV debates or press media, that much is clear.

At the opposite end my whatsapp number was added in two anti Modi WhatsApp group. For few months I tried to counter their propaganda but it was exhausting. In the time I replied to their two propaganda they used to post 20 propaganda rich with audio visual format.

There is no repository by BJP IT cell where one can go and get counter arguments rich with audio visual format to answer these bombardments of propaganda which was the case in my whatsapp number.

BJP IT Cell should make such repository and should make it accessible to everyone. It will do two things. A glance at repository will tell everyone whether BJP IT cell picking up good and great argument of BJP influencers on various social media and enriching them in audio visual format or not. A glance at such repository will also show what are BJP IT cell effort in countering various Propaganda. A counter in such repository website can also show how much an argument is being shared to gauze the reach of any argument. Everybody should have option to refer an argument of a BJP influencer to repository if it is being missed by such repository.

Such repository website should be searchable and memes, videos, pictures, screenshot or article links from Opindia, My nation, Swarajya, etc in it should be easily sharable to various social media platforms & specially to whatsapp and Facebook.

A common thread of Nationalism & Hindu unity should run through, be sprinkled upon all media strategy be it TV debate, print media or social media messages:

Hindu vote bank is a difficult lot. They are not only divided in castes, they are also divided on electoral issues.

Both divisions are being greatly used by congress & its proxies. Manufactured Patel agitation in Gujarat, Jaat Andolan In Haryana, Gurjar Andolan In Rajasthan and PIL through their proxies on SC ST atrocity act and False news like Yogi said Hanumaan is dalit or Modi Said Gau Rakshak are Gundas all are part of a plan to divide Hindus in upper caste, Dalit, Vaisya, Patel, Jaat, Gurjar, Maratha etc.

Mayawati used Dalit vote to rule, Mulayam used Yadav OBC and Muslim vote to rule for so long.

Hindu is also divided on election issues. Some want Mandir, some want Vikas, some want doles to win election, some are totally opposed to it. Some want RTE repealed, some want Tax exemption, some want government job which seems totally scarce in BJP government and some are just jealous because someone among Hindus is doing so much.

If Modi does Vikas, Mandir Walas get agitated and decide not to vote, If Modi takes a stand in SC ST atrocities Act judgement to keep Dalit vote in Hindu vote, upper caste gets agitated and decides not to vote.

In such scenario what could be election campaign strategy. Answer is a common thread of nationalism and Hindu unity should run through, be sprinkled upon all media strategy be it TV debate, print media or social media messages. No matter what whatsapp messages of Vikas data BJP IT media cell uses for campaign these messages should have underlying theme of Nationalism & Hindu Unity. In chain of forwarded messages to any voter by BJP IT cell, its every second message should be on nationalism and Hindu unity.

There are so much data relating to Nationalism and Hindu unity in audio visual format from Kerala, west Bangal, Tamilnadu, and many instances like Navjot Singh Sidhu picture with Khalistani terrorist, P. Chidambaram Photo with Hafeez Saeed, Rahul Gandhi secret meeting with Chinese during Doklam border dispute, etc. All such pictures, videos, article since the inception of congress in 1885 and of other parties after 1947 should be curated, weighed and transformed into audio visual whatsapp messages to be inserted in between every second message of development work done by Modi.

In villages where these messages can not be sent to voter by Social Media like Facebook or whatsapp there should be some arrangement to show these audio visual messages on screen just prior to an election.

Overhauling BJP’s Central & State Party Unit by transforming them into professional, corporate like Branches:

It is amazing that Modi had made even government official known to not work to work and deliver on his dream projects like Ujjawala yojna or electicity to all but failed to restructure central and state party units. Losing state assemblies because of incumbency against your MLA shows that there were no measures taken to make sure that member of Parliament and Legislature is doing work in their constituencies. If PM tried to make sure that government officials do their job by trying to introduce biometric attendance & pet project were being monitored by use of technology, why it failed to do so in case of its own MLA and MP.

Infighting, Internal sabotage, Rebel MP, MLA, incumbency and anger against inaccessible local MLA are still the part of BJP’s defeat in state assembly election. BJP State unit still need outsider as star pracharak to sway the voters, they do not have their own MLA’s as star pracharak in the election.

Strategy of denying ticket to non-performing MLA at the time of election is not a good solution. It often paves way for infighting, internal sabotage, rebel MP, MLAs and also fails to address the incumbency which public were feeling because of these absent, inaccessible non-performing MLA’s.

BJP has to bring corporate culture in party organization complete with human resource development, continual assessment and internal audit etc. In last four year there have been very less effort in this direction.

Though now is not the time to do it, but it should be the top priority if BJP wants to turn in a professional winning machine.

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