India must ask what the country has achieved from such a prolonged lockdown with almost 98% stringency. Whether fear projected possibly by the mathematical /statistical models created by the epidemiologists or the scientific understanding about the predictions and the ground realities that prevails in India has led to the lockdown is a millions dollar question.
If the lockdown was done more to prepare the logistics and other arsenals to deal the pandemic, then what is the logic and science behind going from lockdown 1.0 to 4.0….with shrunken duration?
The existence of the virus, the pandemic and the possibility of people dying due to the virus no one questions or demean however the complete science of the virus and its implications to human being are yet to get unravelled.
Many micro details about the virus and COVID 19 are still under ‘discussion’ or in an ‘understanding’ stage, behind the scene. What is obviously happening at the global area is ‘brute politics’ over coronavirus, allegations, denials, revealing newer and newer scientific twits etc. that the common man cannot understand or comprehend but competent enough to confuse.
Unfortunately the science has taken side step in the mega show of power and the new norms of discipline has made us to keep rowing a tied boat in the river of ignorance, all through the night.
Whether ICMR has the surveillance data on the incidence and prevalence of common flue and respiratory illness in different parts of India vis-à-vis months, age and gender group, mortality rate, how different is the common flue manifestations in those who suffer from various co-morbidity conditions etc.
If we have all such data, only then we can assemble a possible scientific construct to understand what coronavirus and COVID 19 means to India.
Instead of accepting and understanding the ‘harsh and crude’ reality that exist in India, our government appears to have thought that prolonged lockdown would prevent viral spread. If we play a trick with the virus through lockdown and other means, the viral latency possibility can we dismiss? Will our epidemiology luminaries tell boldly such possibility doesn’t happen?
Should we keep discussing and treat both novel coronavirus and COVID 19 as Siamese twins or monozygotic twins or conjoined twins. Someone tests positive for the viral RNA will turn COVID 19 and all COVID 19 would necessarily die. Should that be our hypothesis?
The US medical data shows that several deaths in the country had occurred over the years during every winter season due to common viral flue and the problem was said to disappear once the season was over.
Cursory details about the incidence and prevalence of winter flue in several temperate countries and the mortality rates can be learned from the article published in The Wire https://thewire.in/health/lockdown-shutdown-breakdown-indias-covid-policy-must-be-driven-by-data-not-fear
Considering the communicability of the virus and the large population, population dynamics and other socio-economic and politico-cultural idiosyncrasies of India, only awareness and our medical preparations alone can save us and not lockdown. Lockdown at best can only compound the agony and will not help us to solve the pandemic.
Unfortunately the world perceives the asymptomatic carriers of viral RNA as Komodo dragon. Komodo dragon is one of the biggest living terrestrial reptiles in the world. The reptile is a carnivore, active hunter. But the interesting facet of the hunting strategy of Komodo dragon is that the animal is a rapere, often gives a bite or two to the prey. The initial bite of Komodo dragon won’t cause any great injury to the prey but still in matter of hours, the victim would die of variety of pathogens that enters from the buccal cavity of Komodo dragon along with the anticoagulant present in the saliva of the reptile to the victim. The abundant pathogens present in the buccal cavity of the reptile, interestingly doesn’t affect the reptile.
The asymptomatic carriers of viral RNA of coronavirus are contained and quarantined immediately even when they show no signs and symptoms of the disease because of their high infectivity.
The irony is that the carriers are considered highly infective although are not infected and hence must be dealt ‘mercilessly’ from the epidemiological perspective and to prevent the spread of the virus, therefore are quarantined and confined in containment zones. This is how our present day quarantine and containment programme is happening.
Presumed fear born out of assumed science only has led us to this state of affair.
We must accept the bitter truth that novel coronavirus and COVID 19 are not Siamese or monozygotic twins. The following possibilities we must recognise and accept
- All those people who are exposed to the virus may not contract the virus and only some may contract
- All those contract the virus may not show symptoms and signs of even common flue let alone the signs of COVID 19
- All those show early signs of flue needs not progress to COVID 19
- All those COVID 19 needs not die.
- Some or a few may die of COVID 19.
The question is how one places himself or herself in the above list.
There are 5 strong possibilities. But most of the people seem to find their placement only in the 5th possibility.
Fear, pessimism and possibly perceiving everyone in the surrounding as Komodo dragon only has gone in favour of lockdown, loss of livelihood and economic destruction.
Sweden has shown a new way of handling the pandemic without panic and also succeeded in its mission. But we messed up everything. We have used novel coronavirus to display
- Majority power of the government
- Dictatorial leadership
- Authority
- Politics
Only the above components seem to have triggered the government to go for lockdown and not the scientific understanding or any such quest. To grip over its action, the most powerful ingredient called ‘fear’…. fear of death was used by hyping the virus.
Thanks to several media houses for giving commentaries on hourly basis about coronavirus like how election counting day show, the coronavirus has been made virtue out of wane and wane out of virtue.
Whether we develop ‘herd’ immunity or not, but herd mentality we have developed called fear over novel coronavirus and the fear started to serve pudding to all our thoughts, actions and even the science that we observe, sorry synthesize and manufacture.
Still we are unwilling to accept the possibility based on the data that we have in our hand that the virus is least harmful to us and we must allow people and virus to have their freedom and independence only then the virus may find its eternal host.
Man may not be its ultimate host. The epidemic and pandemic science of any pathogen for that matter are seen largely as seasonal and not Universalist. Coronavirus also may follow the seasonality in its epidemic or pandemic spread and then may disappear. But we are only attempting to give permanent membership to the virus with complete veto power.
Thanks to coronavirus, many other deadly pathogens have had their free run in India until now appears to have lost their recognition. If those pathogens want to regain their position and space, must fight the novel coronavirus more than affecting man. Who knows Salmonella or Pseudomonas or Mycobacterium may fight and eliminate coronavirus. Who thought a species a fungus from the genus Penicillium may provide weapon to fight several bacterial pathogens.
Time has come we must separate novel coronavirus from COVID 19.
Fortunately they are not Siamese twins and therefore the surgery required to separate them is quite simple, all we need to do is at our mind first and not in the operation theatre.
Complication, confusion, reluctance and slow peddling are not going to solve the crisis. Only the close interactions between man and virus alone shall answer the problem.
Let us abandon our ignorance and embrace wisdom and courage to free man and virus simultaneously, the solution will come automatically.
