60% chance for a Congress Sarkar in Jammu and Kashmir? Hope not.
BJP won Tripura and formed coalition Governments in Meghalaya and Nagaland. The last two are overwhelmingly Christian. (This map is slightly truncated in the south, sorry).
Jo jeeta wahi Sikandar- Congress the Sikandar of Karnataka 2018 elections. Karnataka loss was an unmistakable political slap on the faces of Modi and Shah. No doubt Congress has the upper hand here. All those Cong-JDS coalition bickering’s are just background noises meant to fool BJP supporters and force BJP to commit an unplanned blunder.
Jo jeeta wahi Sikandar! The winner keeps it all! It is Congress and its coalition that runs the Karnataka Government and hence the clear winner.
Congress + 1 Modi/Shah 0
Modi lost Andhra and failed to win Karnataka! Haar ki jeet:– Modi gained Jammu and Kashmir by gutting his own coalition government. By gutting the PDP-BJP alliance in Jammu and Kashmir, Modi can directly govern Srinagar through his trusted lieutenants and aides. He never had this luxury when BJP was a meek partner in the PDP-BJP coalition. Worse, PDP-BJP alliance was extremely inimical to BJP’s support base in Jammu and Ladakh. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls BJP’s Thupstan Chhewang won the Ladakh parliamentary seat by less than 50 votes! Just imagine the situation if the PDP-BJP coalition persists.
Congress + 0 Modi/Shah 1
Jammu and Kashmir’s affect on the national discourse:
Almost every Modi supporter was ecstatic when BJP withdrew its support to PDP forcing Mehbooba Mufti to quit as Jammu and Kashmir CM. Every Congress and UPA supporter was sad. Even though their reactions were diametrically opposite, both Modi supporters and opponents had almost similar reasons for their divergent reactions:
- Modi will tackle terror with an iron fist, results may not be visible overnight but a positive pattern will be found.
- Hurriyat Conference and all other sundry anti-India Islamist groups in Jammu and Kashmir will lose their “covert support” from a friendly Srinagar government.
- Modi will try to give Indian and J&K armed forces a freer hand to tackle terror.
- Modi will try to reduce the injustices meted out to Jammu, Kargil and Ladakh.
- Modi will try to tackle Rohingya and Uyghur settlement issue in Jammu. This is one of the most sinister moves of Congress Sarkar against Hindus in general and India in particular. What are the chances that, when Rohingyas eventually become Indian Citizens, they will vote for India in an hypothetical plebiscite? Oh Congress! How cruelly you harm India with your crazy lust for minority votes! You even import them from foreign conflict zones and put them in one of the most sensitive regions of India.
- Modi will stabilize J&K. He is rapidly building a team of experienced security personnel from across the nation. All the best PM Modi in this holy patriotic endeavor to stabilize J&K.
Congress + 0 Modi/Shah 6
Why will Congress form a government in Jammu and Kashmir:
J&K assembly elections in 2014 threw an hung assembly. In a house of 87, the magic figure is 44. The main players of the state have the following strength:
PDP 28 MLAs
BJP 25 MLAs
National Conference (JKNC) 15 MLAs
Congress 12 MLAs
7 MLAs of smaller parties which include Independents.
There are three options for Congress to reach the magic figure of 44 to form a non-BJP government :-
PDP(28)+Congress(12) with JKNC(15) giving outside support= 55
PDP(28)+Congress(12) + JKNC(15) = 55
PDP(28)+Congress(12) with 4 MLA’s from Independent and smaller parties= 44
What are the clues that this can happen?
On the very day of Mehbooba’s resignation, many Congress Chamchas like Ramchandra Guha openly called for a BJP free Mahaghatbhandan in J&K.
After the Karnataka election, Kumaraswamy left for Singapore on an hitherto undeclared visit. Later on he formed a coalition with Sonia’s Congress, against whom he had just fought a bitter election campaign. Currently Rahul and Sonia are out of India, with Rahul being in London as per some reports. London is an known base of many Kashmiri bigwigs including the Abdullah’s who control JKNC.
Do not believe something till it is officially denied. Since overtly no body in PDP, Congress and JKNC wants to form a coalition government together, can we assume that they are covertly trying to do so? The Hindu (which appears to pray for the eternal reign of Congress in almost all its news items) has a banner headline saying that BJP is trying to form a immoral government in J&K. Politically its always prudent to make a big noise about something, when you want to do the exact opposite.
There are many reasons why Congress may try to form a government before the 2019 polls. Namely:
- To break the narrative that Modi/Shah has won J&K. To insult them and prove that they are even more weaker after the loss of Karnataka and defeats in by-elections.
- To create the narrative that Sonia’s designated heir Rahul is a political genius, who can club a coalition even with such rivals like JKNC and PDP.
- To assure the Jammu and Kashmir separatist groups such as Hurriyat Conference and their handlers across the border that they can tango with Congress.
- To assure the Big Business in Mumbai that Sonia still has the killer instinct of 2004, when she clubbed an impossible UPA coalition with a mere 145 Lok Sabha seats. She smoothly ran this coalition for 5 long years. Such was the pathetic leadership of the opposition BJP leaders from the “gang of 160” , that Sonia won an even greater victory in 2009, in spite of Mumbai terror attacks and an global economic meltdown.
- By controlling Jammu and Kashmir Congress can create as much trouble(like daily protests, fake polls, improper security narratives) for Modi as it wants. This can greatly erode the confidence of the floating Middle voters whose support Modi needs to sweep the Urban areas again. Please note Modi had swept almost all the urban areas in 2014, except those in the eastern Coromondal Coast and Kerala.
- Congress has set its eyes on the BJP/NDA coalitions and quasi-coalitions in other states such as Goa, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Assam and Maharashtra. I will also include Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, where BJP has a friendly government, as both state governments have wafer thin majorities. (many BJP MLA’s are turncoats from other parties including Congress) Just imagine the narrative, BJP governments falling one after another in state after state. What a great blow this will be for the morale of BJP supporters and what a morale booster it will be to all those anti Modi forces that never want to see India developed?
- To keep assuring radical, yet politically powerful minority groups across India(and world) that Congress is working tirelessly to insult and defeat Modi. This narrative is already helping Congress in a big way. Recently BJP lost its traditional Jayanagar seat in Bangalore, because 90% of minorities in a single ward voted Congress, thereby ensuring its victory by a slender margin.This loss was in spite of the great work done by BJP’s recently departed MLA, who was appreciated by one and all. We also saw how BJP lost the Kairana by election , when more than 95% of Minorities voted anti-BJP. Even in the coming 2019 elections, rest assured more than 95% of minorities will vote anti-BJP. Yet Congress will keep the pot boiling by controlling the J&K narrative , thereby ensuring that that minorities turn up in big numbers for it on the polling day.
Hope Congress never gains Jammu and Kashmir.
Congress + 7 Modi/Shah 0
Due to all these reasons Congress might try to form a government in J&K and even in other states.The author is not insinuating anything here just mentioning patterns and probable scenarios. Pray Modi and his team are successful in averting such sinister designs. Since as per Congress, Left and all those dynastic castist parties only minorities matter in India, let us all genuinely pray to the God of Abraham.
O God of Abraham! Please have mercy on India and prevent this travesty of Congress on the good,smart hardworking, erudite yet humble folks of India.
O God of Abraham! Please protect India from Congress’s evil machinations and give more power to Modi /Shah and all those who support them.
O God of Abraham! We know you will hear the prayers of Modi supporters, as you would want a developed,powerful and peaceful India.
O God of Abraham! We remember that way back in March you gave Modi, Meghalaya and Nagaland and now you give him Jammu and Kashmir!