It is necessary to analyze the Modi wave now because even after 3 years BJP is getting walk over in every elections by when anti-incumbency usually starts. So lets analyze what are the factors that working out for the extraordinary popular prime minister Modi and BJP.
Is it his agenda, is it his priorities he is laying out or is it no strong opposition factor who can stand in front of him as a prime minister electorally? Lets analyse what is happening from 2014:
In 2014 BJP wins the center with massive majority, with some big states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, which were already with them.
Then they won states like Haryana (Single largest party), Jharkhand, Jammu and Kashmir (highest ever seat).
In 2015 it went wrong for BJP, AAP clean sweep in Delhi, Nitish Kumar in Bihar with thumping majority.
In 2016 BJP gain some seat in ASSAM in particular, though Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and west Bengal were not good. But at the same time with high voting share.
But now in 2017, you can also say post demonetization, landslide victory in UP and Uttarkhand, Govt in Goa and Manipur, single largest party in Municipal elections in Maharashtra, replaced Congress as main opposition in Odisha after Panchayat elections and now Delhi MCD win. The only piece of bad news is Punjab where BJP is junior partner.
If we go through the history, in 2003, just before the general elections there were 4 state elections. And BJP won 3. Still in 2004 BJP lost the national general elections. But current opposition should not search solace in history. Because Modi is a more charismatic figure than Bajpayee. And Some people from highest level of BJP tell the moment the Congress party goes on saying Modi on the red corner and Rahul Gandhi on blue corner the BJP jumps for joy. So definitely it will not be a case like 2003.
The reason is Modi is selling a positive agenda. Some says he is selling dreams, well its better than not having a dream. I think the opposition has not begun to understand what they are taking on. Its not just merely having a credible figure in the opponent factor. Mr. Modi offers today the hope. He is positive, he is pro active, where the opposition is negative, they are reactive.
Modi sets an agenda; everyone reacts to that. He offers good governance while opposition don’t do that. He offers a sense of self respect to the majoritarian. Unless oppositions think about these deeper things and keep on thinking about this some election loss, they can’t revive. Opposition still going with their old idea of secularism and communalism. But now this wont work.
If we see his speeches, twitter account he talks about development, good governance, end of corruption etc., but at the other side there is cow Rakshak, anti Romeo sqauds for the majorities. So he is a leader who takes on Politics and governance side by side, which opposition has failed to counter.
Mr. Modi’s policy about Jan Dhan, Ujvala Yojna and Swachh Bharat have really reached to the poor. Modi is not winning the elections only because of Hindutwa or hate against Muslims. His is winning the elections because he is selling a package of Majoritarian ideology with development agenda as a soft cover.
But the opposition should not simply acknowledge that the following things can go against Modi. One is anti Modi mind. Get up in the morning, see what Modi says and oppose that. Mamata Banajee style and Arvind kejriwal style of politics simply won’t work. And the next is grand coalition against him. That’s not going to work either becase they don’t have any ideology or a policy to offer. This even didn’t work against Indira Gandhi.
Opposition should start understanding the core thing he is selling to young India and how to reinvent their own position. Because they seem to have forgotten what they stand for.
The other side of story is Modi’s BJP is hegemonic power in Indian politics. But a republic ideology tells us this hegemony of BJP should not be celebrated.
At last the matter will remain same. If we go back to common man they will tell you after Narendra Modi how they have felt their Ignited Imagination.
