I want to start this article by reminding us the strategy adopted by the BJP in UP to connect with the non Yadav OBC voters using Pichda Verg Maharallies before the demonetization, all political Pundits even some leftist anchors of NDTV have praised it.
But all of that is forgotten by the pundits by focusing on the notebandi storm & staged SP family feud which all neutral person now know ‘was a drama’ by Chade Rushta, Tade Tushta famed so called Dharti Putra of Saifai Neta ji to clear the party president post for his son ‘Tipu’, and show his brother Shivpal his place.
So as the parties were gearing up for the polls, brokers and pundits both had put their bet on the SP-Congress Mahaghathbandhan, which doesn’t have a single ‘Maha’ thing in it. The other reasons for this formation reason were:
- No CM candidate of BJP.
- Infighting in the BJP before 1st phase.
- Jaats anguish over quota with the BJP.
- Thinking demonetization will be an issue in UP.
- Muslim vote had largely going towards the SP-Cong alliance like ‘Ekmusht’.
- Perception among the Lutyen media specially left media that Akhilesh have a Vikas Purush image amongst youth.
- Low profile Bahanji had lost the perception battle due to constantly being deserted by the tall leaders.
But after the 3rd phase, these perception of the Lutyen media have changed because of the ground report, that have come from the booths of Yadav belt and the nervous Akhilesh appearance on many occasions after that, which had lead to acceptance by NDTV chairman Pranav Roy to indirectly show that the BJP is coming despite good image of Akhilesh. Some other champion leftist news outlets like Huffington post, DailyO, etc have also analyzed a defeat for Tipu after the 3rd phase. Now the present scenario after the 4th phase of 53 seats is:
- BJP is forming a stable Govt with the absolute majority by etching towards the 2014 vote share, not more than that but quite close to that against the popular perception.
- SP that have got 55 seats in 2012, is now struggling to win 10 seats in the Yadav belt of central UP because of Yadav infighting and bad show in the big cities of Kanpur and Lucknow.
- BSP is benefiting from the poor show of SP-Cong alliance. But it has not able to convert that into win because of the division of the Muslim votes and less presence of the party in big cities.
- BJP have swept the 3rd and 4th phase, Pundits from all sides agree on that.
- BJP is poised to show same or even better show in the eastern UP because of the large presence of the OBC voter in that region, Maurya, Patels, Khuswaha, Rajbhars, Lodh, Saini etc. The MBC’s are strongly backing BJP is the game changer of this election. even the Yadavs of Purvanchal are traditional BJP voters.
- BJP is in the run of making its biggest ever win in the UP assembly election, with the 2/3rd majority that will increase it’s Rajya Sabha member tally.
- Though the majority of the forward castes have again voted for BJP, not same as 2014, but in high numbers, non Jaatav SC’s have also voted like 2014 but the real shift or the tsunami came because of the non Yadav OBC voters and non Yadav youth of UP, which see Modi as their guardian, who is uncorrupt and working tirelessly in their perception. Their thinking is, if he has done ‘Notebandi’; it has to be good. They didn’t ever question his intention.
- Congress ka saath- Bhasmashur ka haath theory has proved again in the election and this time Tipu Bhaiya have to bear the burnt of it, which may led the SP-Cong alliance to the 3rd position.
- Modi wave is still very strong, UP 2017 results on 11th of March will definitely put a lasting stamp on it before 2019, which will be cake walk for Modi because of the widening of its base after coming to power to even Northeast, Odisha and Bengal, some still to come.
- Amit Shah and KP Maurya, both are man of the match this time along with others, who have played a soft Hindutva card very well and timely.
Verdict of UP 2017 will also put a stamp on investor and for foreign world media that Narendra Damodar Das Modi is the undisputed democratic leader of the largest democracy and he is here to stay for quite some time.